SERIE CUADERNOS DE CUADERNOS CAPEL CAPEL. Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas analytical report

Transcription

1 SERIE CUADERNOS DE CAPEL 51 CUADERNOS DE CAPEL Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas 2006 analytical report

2 ELECTIONS, DEMOCRACY, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE AMERICAS 2006 ANALYTICAL REPORT SERIE CUADERNOS DE CAPEL

3 ELECTIONS, DEMOCRACY, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE AMERICAS 2006 ANALYTICAL REPORT IIHR - CAPEL Inter-American Institute of Human Rights Center for Electoral Promotion and Assistance 2007

4 First Edition IIHR - CAPEL, Costa Rica, 2007 The ideas expressed by the authors in CUADERNOS DE CAPEL, not necessarily correspond to the ones by IIHR / CAPEL I59a Instituto Interamericano de Derechos Humanos. Elections, democracy and human rights in the Americas 2006: analytical report / Instituto Interamericano de Derechos Humanos. -- San José, C.R. : Corte IDH, p. ; 13 x 21 cm. -- (Cuadernos de CAPEL ; no. 51) ISBN: Derecho electoral 2. Democracia 3. Elecciones 4. Derechos humanos I. Título. All or part of this publication may be reproduced, subject to the condition that is not been altered, credits are entirely considered, and a copy of the publication or reproduction is sent to the editor. Publishing Team Roberto Cuéllar M., IIHR Executive Director José Thompson, Director, Center for Electoral Promotion and Assistance Academic Coordination Óscar Álvarez Araya Consultant Marisol Molestina Coordinator Information and Editorial Service Unit Information and Editorial Service Unit Prepress Masterlitho S.A. Printer Inter-American Institute for Human Rights P.O. Box San José, Costa Rica Phone: (506) Fax: (506) uinformacion@iidh.ed.cr

5 Content Introduction Brief analysis of presidential elections in each country An unprecedented and marathon-like electoral agenda Perception of democracy and political parties in Towards the end of the presidential system? Challenges, risks and dangers of the presidential role Elections and electoral institutionality As a conclusion Bibliography and information sources

6 Introduction 1. Many events have been taking place at a fast pace in Latin America and the Caribbean during the first quarter of the year However, due to such facts and the haste of the events, we cannot omit the 40 elections 12 presidential, 4 runoffs, 14 parliamentary, 6 of municipal government, 2 referendums, and 2 special ones. In an organized manner and within a busy political agenda, these elections were carried between November 27, 2005, starting with the Republic of Honduras, and December 3, 2006, finishing with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. To this long list, three elections in the American Caribbean (Surinam May 2005, Jamaica April 2005, and Santa Lucia December 2006 since Haiti is considered part of Latin America in this Report) and two in North America (Canada and the U.S) have to be added. The Inter-American Institute of Human Rights (IIHR) monitored these elections through its Center for Electoral Promotion and Assistance (CAPEL), which is the Technical Department of the Inter-American Union of Electoral Bodies (UNIORE) and of the two regional protocols (Association of Electoral Bodies of Central America and the Caribbean, Tikal Protocol, and the Association of Electoral Bodies of South America, Quito Protocol) that gather more than 25 entities and electoral agencies worldwide. As a result of the analysis, the elections were participative at first sight, without surpassing the voting rates and numbers of the period this document refers to, except in some countries. The general level of participation was of 50% and 40% of abstention. Data indicate and also warn about the fact that young voters (from 18 to 25 years old) took little part in the elections, compared to the period mentioned before. This electoral cycle, which we call 9

7 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas unprecedented marathon, has modified the political situation in America. This is reflected in the change of the traditional governmental tendencies of the last decades of the XX century. In general terms, these election processes with several votes also showed that political parties believe that elections are worth the effort and that they can ascend to the electoral stage (or platform) in spite of the fact that, in some places, uncertainty kept citizens in suspense because of the similar results and apparent ties, such as in the elections of Honduras, Costa Rica, Peru, and especially in Mexico. 2. Those 40 elections have shown that the hemisphere believes in democracy: more than 330 million people have voted in Latin America during those 14 months. Besides being the most evident proof of exercising the right of political participation, it is also the indisputable demonstration that elections are now the path towards changes and political transformations. As said before, it is the most evident proof that political parties now know that competing in America's multiparty scenario is worth the effort despite that their credibility has decreased and is being questioned. Likewise, this tendency confirms that the electoral arbiters work well enough. This is not of less importance if it is compared to the democracy of 25 years ago, which had a precarious electoral institutionalism. Throughout this election period, a feeling of expectation and optimism was clearly perceived. In contrast to the first two election movements that had an impact in the democratization of America and started in the Republic of Argentina (1983), the elections reflected more diverse opinions and, in very few cases, polarizations in the calendar that finished on last December This unknown series of elections showed that there has been progress in the electoral institutionalism. This is not a vain effort for short-term democracies in countries dominated by dictatorships that have gained the power through aggressive coups d' état and those overwhelmed due to insurgent wars. Such phenomena had serious consequences for human rights. Nowadays, however, Latin America is the area of the American hemisphere with greater citizen insecurity; the latter is responsible for the considerable amount 10

8 2006 analytical report of murders and kidnappings in several countries. Criminal violence has exceeded the limits of police authority. As usual, Latin America is an area where governments suffer from high levels of corruption; poverty is only surpassed by the one in sub-saharan Africa, and one with unmanageable misery rates in at least ten countries of this area. Accordingly, the image now offered by American democratization is still far from being stable and coherent with the main pillars of the Rule of Law. Some analysts argue that Latin American democracy is characterized by an appropriate sum total of votes; fewer consider that it is a sustainable political success. Thus, the view we have about regional governments upon the new political configuration is actually different from the one of the past. There are now countries opposing each other in conflicting and contradictory speeches which make foreign affairs tense due to the conception held about democracy, development, and the exercise of power. In some countries, there is an emphasis in the fact that democracy is the mass government; therefore, social democracy of law should be highlighted. Others prioritize the principles of the Rule of Law as pillars of any political system and as protection of the fundamental rights of any citizenship without any discrimination. 4. Because of the election results, integration processes have also been renewed. They are now scenarios for agreements and compromises between countries that clearly aim at taking control of these regional initiatives to take a stance, which are more evident and significant in South America. The conditions currently regulating the multilateral dialogue have been represented in the predominance of the interconnection and energy exchange together with the commotion caused by the high prices of raw materials, especially petroleum, gas market and other hydrocarbons, and to a lesser degree, of copper. Nationalizing natural resources, new Bolivarian alliances, and alternative regional mechanisms now modify the hemispherical relations between south, central, and Caribbean regions as well as the agenda with the United States, the most important business partner of the region. 11

9 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas In the past, there were political differences. Nevertheless, clear discrepancies between several countries and patterns of different groups about a development model as well as about the type of international insertion that is more beneficial for their societies are now evident. At the end of this vast election period, in Latin America, there are different opinions and expectations, tendencies full of electoral energy therein referendums are emphasized; these reflect an improvement, at least, compared to the disappointing years of political frustrations and democratic deterioration since the fall of communism (1990). Nowadays, in this new century aggravated by the 9/11 (2001), American countries tend towards elections as an essential way to participate in political decisions and changes precisely the same day therein the 34 States part of the system of the Organization of American States (OAS) signed the Inter-American Democratic Charter in Lima, which established specific institutions for the collective protection of the hemispherical democracy for the first time. 5. The IIHR and our electoral department CAPEL have compared and observed the evolution of democracy and elections through these 40 electoral processes. Elections and participation; elections and government; organization and electoral law are the fields of expertise thereon we have prepared a first balance of this unknown democratic period that shall be the beginning of new times. Public interest in the elections was strong, and participation, in contrast to other periods, was organized and intense although it did not increase as required for the political regional development. Different styles and governmental practices generally predominated during the campaign; this was noticeable in several processes of hesitation on the part of voters. However, the busy electoral agenda was chronologically followed. Some campaigns experienced great commotion, and we were witnesses of the exasperating situations related to figures and political personalities who have changed the hemispherical election scenario. We confirmed that education regarding democracy values takes a secondary role in most countries that participated in the electoral contests. Nevertheless, there 12

10 2006 analytical report were other ways to go into politics. Now, an interest aroused with respect to the direct way of using the system and the internet in the election campaign, which needs to be followed in order to foresee the interactive future of citizens' participation. On our part, as an entity dedicated to the support to human rights accepted by the States in America and to the values of the Inter- American Democratic Charter, and therefore renewing the role of the Technical Department of Inter-American Union of Electoral Bodies (UNIORE) which was granted to us by the national electoral institutions and their regional protocols, we long for the new election processes and referendums coming in the years 2007 and 2008, as a way to support the hemispherical electoral law and Section 23 of the American Convention of Human Rights (CADH). In this manner, democracy shall be more effective as citizens' right to vote and children's access to education of human rights and democratic values are promoted from the first school years in countries that are part of the hemispherical organization. Roberto Cuéllar M. Executive Director 13

11 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas Brief analysis of presidential elections in each country Considering the forty election processes, we shall examine presidential elections in order to analyze more deeply the operation of electoral and political processes during this period. For the sake of comprehension, a synoptic chart containing general information about the electoral processes under study is presented as follows; it is accompanied by a brief analysis of each country. Honduras The eighth general consecutive elections were carried in Honduras on November 27, 2005 upon the restoration of democracy in The result was the victory, by a slim margin, of the former minister Manuel Zelaya, candidate of the opponent Liberal Party of Honduras (Partido Liberal de Honduras, PLH), who obtained 51% of the valid votes. Congress former president Porfirio Lobo was the candidate of the governing and conservative National Party (Partido Nacional), which obtained 46% of the vote. Far from reaching this point, there were the leftist Democrat Unification, the 14

12 2006 analytical report Christian Democratic Party of Honduras (Partido Demócrata Cristiano de Honduras), and the Social Democratic Innovation and Unity Party (Partido Innovación y Unidad, PINU), with 1% each. In the legislative elections, the Liberal Party won 62 seats, the National Party 55, Democratic Unification 5, Christian Democracy 4, and Innovation and Unity (PINU) 2, out of a total of 128. The Liberal and National Parties have dominate the Honduran political scene for more than a century. In the seven general elections carried during the last twenty five years, the Liberal Party has won five times, whereas the National Party achieved victory in two opportunities. With the result of the last General Elections, the bipartisan system that has characterized this country was maintained. Bolivia The sixth general elections after democracy was reinstalled in 1982 were held on December 18, The indigenous union and emerging leader Evo Morales, candidate of the opponent Movement for Socialism Party (Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS) obtained an overwhelming victory, with 54% of total valid votes cast. In second place was Jorge Quiroga, candidate for the right-of-center coalition, Social Democratic Power (Poder Democrático Social, PODEMOS), with 29% of the vote, while the National Unity Front (Frente de Unidad Nacional, FUN) obtained 8%, and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario, MNR) obtained only 6%. The result meant a change of direction toward an election option that was defined as socialist, allied to the Bolivarian regional trend and willing to implement strategic company nationalizations and conducting an agrarian reform. Evo Morales is the first indigenous head of state in Bolivia s history. The multiparty system prevailed with two large and two small parties, but the political force balance changed radically. After elections, a relative instability has prevailed in the country, where new elements have been added, such as the confrontation between the 15

13 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas richest departments and the central government. Election results allowed MAS to control the Chamber of Deputies but not the Senate; moreover, for the first time in history, departmental governors, known as prefects, were popularly elected; prefects represent the first political authority of departments. Chile Presidential and parliamentary elections took place in Chile on December 11, The former Minister of Health and Defense Michelle Bachelet was victorious; she was the candidate of the ruling Coalition of Parties for Democracy (Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia), formed by the Socialist Party, the Party for Democracy, and the Christian Democracy Party. Second place was for Sebastián Piñera, from National Renewal (Renovación Nacional) (right), and third place was for Joaquín Lavín, from the Independent Democrat Union (Unión Demócrata Independiente) (right too). A runoff election was held on January 15, 2006; Michelle Bachelet was victorious with 53.50% of the vote, followed by Sebastián Piñera, who obtained 46.50%. Her victory makes her the first woman to become President of the Republic of Chile, and this victory results as well in the fourth consecutive administration of the Coalition since democracy was reinstalled. After the authoritarian government of General Augusto Pinochet, the Coalition started with two governments led by Christian-Democrat presidents; it then continued in office with two socialist presidents, first Ricardo Lagos and now Michelle Bachelet. The new victory of Coalition means the continuity of a center-left project and a social market economy, although with a clearer plan to strengthen social programs. The Coalition also triumphed in the parliamentary elections and for the first time will have control of Congress. The multiparty system still remained, but it is important to remember that Chilean stage is dominated by two main alliances that group the great majority of parties. 16

14 2006 analytical report Costa Rica On February 5, 2006, Costa Rica held presidential, parliamentary, and municipal government elections. The former President and Nobel Peace Laureate Oscar Arias, candidate of the opponent National Liberation Party (Partido Liberación Nacional) won with a tight margin. He obtained 40.92% of valid votes cast. The second place was for the former Minister of Planning, Ottón Solís, who was the candidate of the Citizen s Action Party (Partido Acción Ciudadana, PAC). He obtained 39.80% of votes cast. The Libertarian Movement (Movimiento Libertario) was third with 8.48% of the vote, and the party that ruled during the last two administrations, the Social Christian Unity Party (Partido Unidad Social Cristiana, PUSC) dropped to the fourth place, with 3.55% of the vote, and this became its worst result in history. In elections to the Legislative Assembly, the unicameral national legislature, the National Liberation Party obtained 36.54% of votes, while the Citizen s Action Party obtained 25.34%, the Libertarian Movement 9.17%, and the Social Christian Unity Party obtained 7.82%. During the election campaign, candidate Óscar Arias actively promoted the Central American Free Trade Agreement with the United States, which was negotiated and signed during the previous Social-Christian administration. PAC is a party founded six years ago, and it became the option of those who opposed the re-election of Oscar Arias and the ratification of the Free Trade Agreement. This time, the election result was very different to what polls were saying, and the PAC took some weeks before accepting such results. The Costa Rican Election System faced the tension caused by a very tight result. The bipartisan model formed by the National Liberation Party and the PUSC was replaced by a new multiparty system, formed by two large parties, two small parties, and a few parties represented by only one deputy. The new ruling party did not obtain simple majority in the Legislative Assembly. 17

15 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas Haiti Presidential elections were held on February 7, Victory was obtained, in first round, by René Preval, former President and candidate of the Front of Hope Party. (Front de l Espoir ), who obtained 51.21% of the vote. Preval is the only head of state in Haiti s history who, after having been democratically elected, was able to complete his mandate and voluntarily handing power over to his successor. He was an opponent of the Duvalier family dictatorship and was a member of the Fanmi Lavalas Party, whose leader is the former president Jean Bertrand Aristide. Lesly Manigat, from the Rally of Progressive National Democrats (Rassemblement de Démocrats Nationaux Progressistes) obtained a quite distant second place, with 12.40% of the vote. Aristide had been elected President of the Republic with 92% of the vote during the previous Presidential elections, held on November 26, The 2006 elections were very controversial and generated fraud accusations from many candidates, including, at some point, Preval himself. These elections were delayed four times due to the violent and unsteady situations that attempted against successful development of elections. In short, this was the only case, during this electoral year, in which the agenda was completely altered. At the end, the electoral council distributed blank votes among the participating candidates, which allowed the victory of Preval in first round. Nevertheless, Preval s victory and the beginning of his term represent a return to democratic normality, which had been interrupted by the coup d etat or resignation (according to different versions) of Jean Bertrand Aristide in Colombia Colombia held presidential elections on May 28, Álvaro Uribe Vélez was re-elected as President of the Republic. He obtained a resounding a victory, with 62.35% of the votes. Uribe became the first Colombian president in over 100 years that was consecutively re-elected. Way behind, the second place was for 18

16 2006 analytical report Carlos Gaviria, from the Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo), with 22.03% of the vote, the largest vote ever for a leftist candidate. The third place was for the lawyer Horacio Serpa, from the Liberal Party (Partido Liberal), who obtained 11.84% of votes. In this case, continued discourses against drug dealing, paramilitarism, and guerrillas led to victory. Although Uribe made his political career in the Colombian Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Colombiano), he separated from his party in 2002, presenting himself as an independent liberal presidential candidate and attaining victory in that moment with 53% of the vote. The liberal-conservative bipartisan model that characterized Colombia for more than a century of its history seems to be fading and giving space to a new multiparty system. Nevertheless, if we take into account the elections for the Congress of the Republic, held on March 12, 2006, the Social National Unity Party of National Union (Partido Social de Unidad Nacional) obtained the first place, with 1,591,775 votes; the second place was for the Colombian Conservative Party (Partido Conservador Colombiano) with 1,470,029; the third place was for the Colombian Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Colombiano) with 1,436,657 votes; the Radical Change Party (Partido Cambio Radical) was in fourth place, with 1,211,457, and the fifth place was for the Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo) with 875,451 votes. Therefore, we can talk of a multiparty system. Peru Peru held national elections on April 9, 2006 to elect President, members of the Congress, and representatives of the Andean Parliament. The nationalist candidate, Ollanta Humala, of Union for Peru Party (Unión por Perú), obtained the first place in the presidential elections, with % of the vote; the ex-president Alan García. from the Peruvian Aprista Party (Partido Aprista Peruano, APRA) obtained the second place with %, and the third place was for the social Christian Lourdes Flores, from National Unity 19

17 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas Party (Unidad Nacional), with %. Despite each candidate s variations, none of them were close to the government. In the second presidential round, held on June 4, 2006, Alan García was victorious, with % of the vote, and Humala obtained %. In this way García became one of the four former Presidents of the Republic that managed to be re-elected. The others were: Óscar Arias in Costa Rica, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and René Preval in Haiti. García s case should draw the analysts attention since his personality and his political party had been characterized, sometime ago, as from the past. In Peru, APRA and García s victory represent a return to one of the traditional politicians, after the long authoritarian period of Alberto Fujimori and the constitutional government of Alejandro Toledo. Mexico Presidential and parliamentary elections in Mexico were held on July 2, In this presidential race, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, who represented the ruling National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional, PAN), obtained, with a tight margin, the first place, with 36.38% of the vote. The candidate of Democratic Revolution Party (Partido de la Revolución Democrática PRD), Manuel López Obrador, former Mayor of Mexico City and former leader of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Industrial, PRI), obtained the second place, with 35.34% Third place was for Roberto Madrazo, from the PRI, with 21.57% of the vote. Felipe Calderón had a long political career with the PAN. He based his political campaign on the idea of generating new jobs by attracting foreign investments. The victory was then for the ruling party; meanwhile, the threeparty system remained. Mexico represented one of the cases, during the year 2006, in which the ruling party won. The other cases were Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela. In Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru, the victory was for parties of the opposition. 20

18 2006 analytical report The candidate for PRD did not accept the results notified by the Federal Electoral Tribunal (Instituto Federal Electoral) and rather claimed that there had been fraud, which would make illegitimate the new head of state. Therefore, he organized protests and even formed a parallel cabinet. The PRI did accept the official results of election immediately. The final result of the elections was challenged and raised complaints from PRD, and finally, the Electoral Tribunal of the country made a decision, about eight weeks after the elections day. In the elections for senators, the PAN won as well with 33.93% of the vote (though they did not obtain the majority), while the PRB obtained 29.77% and the PRI 27.47%. Therefore, a three-partisan Senate continues to exist, where neither the government nor the opposition has the majority, and consequently, governability will still require of complex negotiations. A similar situation occurred in the elections for deputies, where PAN obtained 33.70% of valid votes, PRD obtained the second place with 29.01%, and PRI ended up with 27.66%. After being the party in office for many decades, PRI has become the second party of opposition in the Mexican party system. On the other hand, PAN, after being the opposition party for many decades, has become the ruling party during two consecutive terms of six years each; in other words, a total of 12 years. The PRD, which started as a dissidence from PRI, has now the role of opposition that traditionally belonged to PAN, but from the left wing of the political spectrum. Ecuador General elections were held in Ecuador on October 15, Álvaro Nobola, from the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (Partido Renovador Institucional de Acción Nacional, PRIAN), obtained the first place in the presidential elections with 26.83% of the vote. The second place was for an emergent leader, the economist Rafael Correa, candidate of Proud and Sovereign Fatherland Alliance (Alianza PAIS), who obtained 22.84%. The third place was for Gilmar Gutiérrez, from Patriotic Society Party (Partido Sociedad Patriótica), with 17.42%; the fourth place for 21

19 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas León Roldós, from the Democratic Left Party (Izquierda Democrática), with 14.84%. The fifth place was for Cynthia Viteri, from the Social Christian Party (Partido Social Cristiano). Other two parties obtained percentages above 2%, and two more above 1%. In short, it is a fragmentary political scenario in which none of the forces constitutes a majority by itself. Noboa himself, who obtained the first place, only obtained a little more than a fourth of the total vote. According to projections from pollsters, Noboa was favorite for the second round, but then his popularity started to fade in middle of a fierce contest between left and right. On the other hand, Correa presented an electoral offer more oriented toward the Bolivarian regional trend and proposing radical changes in the political institutions. Finally, Rafael Correa s victory over Álvaro Noboa was clear, with 56.67% of the vote versus 43.33% for Noboa. During his campaign, Correa stated that he would not sign the Free Trade Agreement with USA, that he would expel the US military forces from Manta Airbase, and that he would find out a solution the external debt problem. Regarding other aspects, he did not present candidates for the Congress claiming that he would convene a Constituent Assembly. In fact, during his inauguration, he called for a referendum on the Constituent Assembly. Correa is Ecuador s eighth president during the last 10 years; three of those have not been able to finish their constitutional term due to conflicts with a Congress that has the constitutional power to remove the President. After the 2006 elections, Ecuador has kept its multiparty and fragmentary system. Brazil The general elections in Brazil to elect the president of the country, new parliament, and governors of all states were held on October 1, In the first round, the former left-winged union leader and incumbent President of the Republic, Lula da Silva, who was the candidate for the Worker s Party (Partido dos 22

20 2006 analytical report Trabalhadores) and his allies, obtained 48.61% of the valid votes. The second place was for the physician and former Governor of Sao Paulo Gerardo Alckim, candidate for the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira of Fernando Henrique Cardoso) and the Liberal Front Party ), with 41.64% of the vote. In a distant third place came Heloisa Helena for the Socialism and Freedom Party (Partido Socialismo e Liberdade), a left-wing split of the Worker s Party, with a 6.85% of the vote. Since Lula da Silva did not obtain more than 50% of the votes, a ballotage was held. In this second round he consolidated his victory, being re-elected as President of the Republic, with an overwhelming 60.83% of the votes against 39.17% obtained by his opponent Gerardo Alckim. This means more than 20 percentage points. In this way, the President of Brazil obtained more than 58 million of votes. In 2002, Lula had also defeated José Sierra in the second round with more than 60% of the votes. Thus, it can be said that, despite the scandals that stained his first administration, the numerous resignations and dissidences, and the modest growth that the economy has had in these years, Lula s political capital remained intact, and the majority of the people has decided to give him a second chance. It is in the Legislative Branch where the outlook is more complex. The Legislative Branch in Brazil is bicameral, composed by the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate. In the former, the government s party (PT) obtained only 83 seats from a total of 513, gaining a clear minority. Regarding the Federal Senate, only a third of the seats were renewed, with the PT obtaining 11 from a total of 81. In the senators elections, as well as in the federal deputies elections, the government s party obtained a minority of the seats in a situation of deep fragmentation. For this reason, his second administration is expected to be more difficult than the first, and he will have to negotiate with other political forces to make governability possible. Lula s first administration was orthodox and similar in economics to the IMF, as well as friendly with President Bush. At the 23

21 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas same time, he cultivated the friendship with the President of Venezuela, striking a balance in Latin-American politics. He has continued to promote the Southern Common Market (MERCO- SUR) and the Union of South American Nations (Confederación Sudamericana de Naciones). For his second administration, Lula has said that his management will not be populist but popular, and that (this time) he will lower the unemployment and poverty rates. However, Brazil will continue to have a multiparty system and will continue to be the biggest laboratory of a government that looks forward to social justice in cohabitation with the market and other international financial organizations. 1 Nicaragua The general elections were held in Nicaragua on November 5, In the run for the presidency of the Republic, the victory was for the former guerrilla leader and former President of the Republic Daniel Ortega Saavedra, candidate for the opponent Sandinista National Liberation Front (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional). Ortega obtained 38.07% of the valid votes, three percentage points above the 35% required to obtain victory, according to the reform made to the Constitution of the Republic of Nicaragua. Commander Ortega returned to the presidency after 16 years during which he was the defeated candidate against Violeta Chamorro, Arnoldo Alemán, and Enrique Bolaños. For this electoral campaign he presented himself as the candidate of reconciliation, peace and love. In second place came the banker, economist and several times former minister Eduardo Montealegre, for the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense), with 29% of the votes. In third place came the former vice-president of the Republic José 1 These elections were not object of an international observation mission since the Brazilian Tribunal did not activate the mechanism of cooperation and reciprocity intended in the Inter-American Network of Electoral Bodies and chose to send out individual invitations. 24

22 2006 analytical report Rizo, who represented the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Constitucionalista) led by former president Alemán, obtaining 26.21% of the vote. The fourth place was for the social democrat Edmundo Joaquín, from the Sandinista Renovation Movement (Movimiento Renovador Sandinista), obtaining 6.44% of the vote. Meanwhile, in the elections for the National Assembly, which is made up of 92 deputies, the Sandinista National Liberation Front obtained 38 seats, the Constitutionalist Liberal Party 25, the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance 22, and the Sandinista Renovation Movement obtained 5 seats. In this context, to obtain the simple majority of 47 votes, the government s party will need the votes of its Constitutionalist Liberal Party allies. In this opportunity, the bipartisan system was replaced by a three-party system. Ortega is one of the four former presidents who returns to the presidency during the 2006 elections. The others were Óscar Arias in Costa Rica, Alan García in Peru, and René Preval in Haiti. Ortega has stated that his second administration will be different from the first because the national and international conditions are new. After his electoral triumph he has offered an administration of peace, one that is respectful of the democratic institutional environment, the private industry and the rules of free market. However, he intends to attract new foreign investment and to continue (despite his reservations) with the Free Trade Agreement that Central America subscribed with the United States. He has also shown signs of conciliation and search for dialogue with the president of the United States. At the same time he keeps friendly relations with his historical allies in Cuba, as well as with the presidents of Venezuela and Bolivia. In fact, at the beginning of his mandate he signed the adhesion to the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (Alternativa Bolivariana para la América Latina y el Caribe, ALBA), integrated by the governments of Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, and now Nicaragua, the first Central American country to join this initiative, which they promote in opposition to the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). 25

23 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas Venezuela The presidential elections were held in Venezuela on December 3, 2006 showing as a result a clear victory for the incumbent president of the republic Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, who obtained his second consecutive re-election as the candidate for the Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento Quinta República) obtaining 62.84% of the valid votes. In second place came social democrat teacher and Governor of the state of Zulia Manual Rosales, candidate for A New Era ( Un Nuevo Tiempo ), a vast coalition of parties which united groups from the center-right to the left democracy who are against Cháves government. Rosales obtained 36.90% of the vote. The difference between them was more than 25 percentage points. Cháves obtained the most comfortable victory in Latin America during 2006, and Manuel Rosales immediately accepted his defeat. During the last years, Chávez has been the Latin-American president with the most belligerent rhetoric opposing neoliberalism, globalization, and the so called Washington Consensus, and Bush s administration foreign policy. He has openly opposed to the invasion of Iraq, the Bush Doctrine, and the war against terror. It can also be said that he has been the most proactive, influential, and media related leader in Latin America during After the elections, the re-elected president announced the beginning of a new, deeper stage in the construction of the Venezuelan socialism for the XXI century, which will be inspired in the ideas of Marx, Lenin, Jesus, and Bolivar. However, Venezuela continues to function within a private industry economy frame, and it is still a vital oil supplier for the United States. In his foreign policy, president Cháves has recently gained two new, very close allies, one in Central America, and another one in South America: Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. In the Parliamentary elections on December 4, 2006, his party had already obtained 114 of the 167 seats in the parliament. Other 26

24 2006 analytical report parties that are allied to Cháves obtained the remaining seats, since the opposition did not present any candidates. In this Parliament, Cháves announced that he will promote a reformation to the Constitution to make indefinite re-election possible and legal. After the 2006 elections, Cháves has begun a process of unification of the 23 parties of his coalition that support the Bolivarian Revolution into the United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Regarding the opposition, it seems to have lost unity after elections, and it might return to the fragmentation of many political parties. Venezuela has a multi-party system with one ruling hegemonic party. An unprecedented and marathon-like electoral agenda For the first time in Latin American history, 12 presidential elections were held from November 27, 2005 to December 3, If the four second rounds were to be taken into account, a total of 16 presidential elections held in the course of one year would be obtained. Votes cast during that period totaled 333,042,867. Over 75% of the population had the opportunity to vote. Nine Latin American presidents were elected and 4 out of 18 were re-elected. During this year, presidential elections were held in all South American countries (except Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay), 3 Central American countries (Honduras, Costa Rica and Nicaragua), and Mexico. On the other hand, legislative elections were held in 14 countries: Honduras, Bolivia, Chile, Haiti, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador and Costa Rica, in addition to two referendums: one in Bolivia and the other in Panama. Municipal elections were held in Honduras (as part of the general elections), El Salvador and Dominican Republic (in both cases they were held along with legislative elections), Paraguay, Peru and Costa Rica (independently). 27

25 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas Governor elections were held along with presidential elections in Brazil in October and for authorities in the Atlantic Coast in Nicaragua in March. If, along with the 16 presidential elections, we add the 14 legislative elections, the 2 referendums, the 6 municipal elections, the Brazilian governor elections and the specific one, for the Nicaraguan Caribbean Coast, we would obtain a total of 40 electoral processes held in the region over a year. 28

26 2006 analytical report A vigorous electoral democracy This unprecedented and full electoral agenda comes to prove that electoral democracy is a current and vital part of the political institution in Latin America. Democratic and plurality elections are the most common, legitimate and consensus means to elect political authorities in the region. It is important to point out that during such period, there were no coup d état or coup attempts and military power was subject to civil power. That situation brings a special difference when compared with the past making military power subject to civil power. The election marathon carried out in normal democratic conditions with respect to civil regime and constitutional state confirms the consolidation of electoral democracy and electoral institutions in Latin America. During the period under study, we have encountered improvements, strengths, challenges, setbacks, difficulties and weaknesses in Latin American democracy and its operating mechanisms, which will be expressly described below. More exercise on direct democracy It is evident, on the other hand, the continuous improvement the electoral processes have experienced as well as the strengthening of a direct democracy as the successful referendums held in Panama and Bolivia shows. Direct democracy is becoming a reality in the region. It will provide citizens with new participation opportunities, make democratic systems more legitimate and complicate the already numerous electoral agendas even more. Modern direct democracy includes new forms of civic participation such as revocations, initiatives in the formulation of laws, and the referendum. The referendum directly calls upon the citizens to immediately exert, with no influence of representatives, the power of deciding on a specific topic. 2 2 IIDH-CAPEL. Diccionario Electoral- Volume I. IIDH, San José. Year 2000, p

27 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas Direct democracy may complement representative democracy if developed within a context of constitutional state, ideological pluralism and respect of fundamental rights and freedoms. Respect for electoral agenda Except in Haiti, where the election date was postponed four times, all other countries respected the election date and the electoral agenda overall. This symptom reflects how electoral democracy in Latin America has been institutionalized. According to Butler (1981), among the main rules of the game for truly democratic elections, it is important to mention that such rules should be recurrent, accurately scheduled and set within the expected time. Electoral alternation From the above-mentioned presidential elections, it can be stated that in seven cases an opposition party won, was proclaimed victorious and took on control of the government. That is, an electoral alternation took place in Honduras, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Haiti, Peru, Ecuador and Nicaragua. In five cases, a government party won the election; thus, no electoral alternation was present in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela. In a study made on presidential elections during the period, it was determined that from 21 elections, 13 were won by the opposition and 9 were won by the government party. That is, in most cases the electoral alternation prevailed. If we compare the two periods analyzed, we can assert that the tendency for the opposition to win most of the Latin American elections, to be granted power and obtain an electoral alternation has been preserved. This symptom mirrors how electoral democracy is properly working. 30

28 2006 analytical report Perception of democracy and political parties in 2006 According to data provided by the most recent Latinobarómetro report (LB 2006), democracy support slightly increased from 53% in 2005 to 58% during 2006 always below the highest level obtained in 1997: 63%. Democracy satisfaction also increased from 31% in 2005 to 38% in Such slight increase in democracy support and satisfaction might be due to the full electoral agenda comprising 32 electoral processes and the electoral honeymoon with 12 new governments starting in Another factor that might be a concurring cause of said increase is the high economic development in Latin America during In effect, according to figures supplied by ECLAC, the region had a good economic year with an average growth of 5,3%. From this report, it was concluded that during 2006, Cuba grew by 12,5%, Dominican Republic 10%, Argentina 8,5%, Paraguay 7,5%, Uruguay 7,3%, Peru 7,2%, Costa Rica 6,8%, Colombia 6%, Mexico 4,8%, Chile 4,4% and Brazil 2,8%. This new increase in economic development had started since Although such development is still accompanied by major inequities and Latin America is still the most unequal region in the world, a certain economic optimism is held in the region especially by high and middle classes. Not all is good news because, according to the Latinobarómetro report conducted during 2006, 69% of Latin Americans believe their country is ruled by several powerful groups aiming at their own benefit only and, despite the democratic election marathon, citizen s reliability in institutions resulted in 27% for congresses and 22% for political parties next-to-last and last institutions respectively. Among all institutions, political parties are the ones causing most distrust reason why they are still suspected. Even though electoral democracy was consolidated through 40 electoral processes carried out in 2006, political crisis and political party crisis still continue. Major inequities are still part of the 31

29 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas current situation as well as high poverty rates (almost 40%). The real question is whether democracy will be preserved in a context of much poverty and social exclusion because, even as stated that human rights cannot be effective without democracy, democracy cannot exist without human rights. A poverty rate of 40% restricts and invalidates the exercise of economic, social and cultural human rights for a considerably broad section of the population. This combination of political crisis, congress and political party distrust, major inequity and high poverty rates might give room for people in certain countries to search for alternative paths even out of the representative democracy. Towards the end of the presidential system? Challenges, risks and dangers of the presidential role The following paragraphs will show evidence of how the presidential system is coming to an end. Some authors wonder if parliamentary system will be the means to strengthen Latin American democracies and make them more efficient and governable. Two decades of low electoral participation The average electoral participation was 59,26% and absenteeism was 40,74%, During the period, the average electoral participation was 74,97%. For the period, the average electoral participation went down 4 percentage points to 71%. Ten years later, the electoral participation went down again to over 11 percentage points and now it is 59,26% That is, in a period covering nearly 20 years, the Third Wave of Democracy in Latin America has experienced a decrease of 32

30 2006 analytical report approximately 15 percentage points in electoral participation (see Graph 1). 3 Graph No.1 Average participation and absenteeism in Latin America (From 1988 to 1996 and 2006) Tendency towards a multiparty system, political fragmentation and complicated governability As for party system, a two-party system was maintained in several countries whereas a multiparty or three-party system was introduced in others, as shown in the following table: 3 For more information, consult: América Latina: Balance del período electoral Óscar Álvarez, Juan Rial and Daniel Zovatto. Also see Elecciones y Democracia en América Latina IIDH-CAPEL,

31 Elections, democracy, and human rights in the Americas In sum, a multiparty system was maintained in seven countries: Bolivia, Chile, Haiti, Peru, Ecuador, Brazil and Venezuela. A change from a two-party system to a multi-party system took place in Costa Rica and Colombia. From a total of twelve countries, nine have now a multiparty system. In one case (Mexico), a three-party system was maintained whereas in another case (Nicaragua), a change from a two-party system to a three-party system was made. From a total of twelve countries, a three-party system was present in two: Mexico and Nicaragua. Finally, from the countries under study, the two-party system persisted in only one (Honduras). The prevailing tendency was the multiparty system (9 countries) and the second place went to the three-party system (2 countries). In a study carried out on all political systems in Latin America, it was found that from 1992 to 1996, multi-party system was the predominant tendency (8 countries), three-party system took the second place (5 countries) whereas two-party system was present in Honduras, Costa Rica and Colombia (3 countries). 34

32 2006 analytical report After a decade of democratic processes and elections, multiparty system proves to be the prevailing tendency in Latin America. In general, such system results in a major political fragmentation as well as a more complicated governability. Analyzing presidents of the republic: A new socio-political map of Latin America Given that all the countries under consideration have presidential systems, it is of the highest importance to know the traits of the presidents of the Republic since the latter are pivotal figures in defining the type of cabinet and government resulting from the elections. Main profession or occupation If we were to classify the presidents from the twelve elections under study on the basis of main professions or occupations, the following table would be generated: Most of them (eight) have a profession. Lawyer is the profession found the most times. 35