Security Implications of the Arab Spring : The View from Indonesia By : Col Dr. A.Yani Antariksa, SE, SH, MM.

Transcription

1 ANNEX D1 ARF DOD Security Implications of the Arab Spring : The View from Indonesia By : Col Dr. A.Yani Antariksa, SE, SH, MM. 1

2 Presentation Outline I. Introduction II. Arab Spring and the Changing Strategic Environment III. Security Implications of the Arab Spring IV. Lessons and Implications for Asia and ARF V. Concluding Remarks 2

3 CHANGING STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT -The regional and global security and strategic environment is undergoing a period of transition; -Growing nexus of traditional and non-traditional challenges highlights the complexity, uncertainty, and rapid changes we have to face in thecoming years. -The paradigm of threats, security, and military operations are also shifting. -Today, non-military threats are as perilous as military ones as much internal security challenges and other asymmetric threats dominate the agenda of many regional countries in recent years. -Modernization and globalization as well as the advent of social media have also broken down traditional state boundaries and blur the rigid distinction between state, society, and individual challenges and aspirations, whether in the economic, political, or even ideological spheres. -This suggests that the prominence of human security will rise even as it will be undeniably interlocked with public, national, and even regional and global security. -As security issues and paradigms change, so will the nature of security relations and the function and scope of its actors. 3

4 Recent Turmoil of in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region. -In general the region is vast and diverse from West Africa to Libya, Egypt, and all the way to Iraq and Yemen. -With different ethnic, tribal, socio-economic, political, and even religious diversity stretching across such a vast area. -it is clearly difficult to present a detailed analysis of the region in one speech. 4

5 -The region s geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic value makes such diversity a very complex and uncertain element in the overall strategic environment. -To compound matters, the interests and policies of extra-regional powers such as the United States and China have also historically further complicate regional architecture and stability. -Finally, standing in the heart of a region that was once described as the cradle of civilization is the long-standing enmities and conflict between and within states that has lasted for decades. WARS IN IRAQ AND AFGANISTAN -the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, American engagement in the Middle East and Central Asia has become more entrenched and more complex than ever before. -While the elevation of President Barrack Obama in 2008 shifted the nature, degree, and scope of American engagement, the rise of China, the ongoing domestic instability in the Afghanistan-Pakistani area and Iraq, as well as most recently, the death of Osama bin Laden, have all continued to add to the mixture of uncertainty in the region. -Not to mention the increasingly deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process and stagnation over the Iranian nuclear program. 5

6 CHANGE THE STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE IN MIDDLE EAST -Under the shadow of these developments, the recent uprising in some Maghreb, Arab, and Gulf countries, with thousands of young men and women taking to the streets demanding political and economic changes, have changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East. -The upheaval began in Tunisia on January 2011 where mass demonstrations led to the ouster of Ben Ali who has ruled for 23 years. -Subsequently, a wave of similar popular mass uprisings, propelled by new social media like facebook or twitter, spread throughout the region like a wildfire. 6

7 CHANGE THE STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUED -Soon, Egypt followed suit where President Mobarak s 30-year rule ended when he resigned after nearly three weeks of popular protests. -Popular uprisings are still seen today in Yemen since February, where protesters are demanding the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh who has been in power since Similar protests can be seen in Bahrain, Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and others. In Libya, the protests led to the ongoing civil war as Colonel Moammar Qaddafi refuses to step down after more than 42 years. -With potential massacre looming as government forces violently attack protesters, NATO decided to militarily intervene under a UNSC mandate. -Not only has these uprisings and security turmoil lead to the demise of, or at least threaten, authoritarian rulers and increase domestic pressures for democratization, popular participation, and better economic development policies, but the Arab Spring also draws our attention to several security implications. 7

8 8 First, at the most basic level the recent security turmoil and mass demonstrations as well as violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has damaged each of respective countries domestic economic and political stability, while also potentially disrupting bilateral or regional trade relations. This puts the world economy at stake as well, especially considering the region s geostrategic value as the world s producer of energy resources like oil.

9 9 Second, while some observers might argue that NATO s intervention epitomizes the old thesis of Samuel Huntington that the world is moving into a Clash of Civilizations, the Arab Spring actually suggests a much more complex picture. Not only has bottom-up pressures for greater public participation highlight the need for better governance, but the differing ideological spectrum mixed with religious sentiments Sunni, Shiites, Salafism, Wahabism, and others makes it difficult to paint a single ideological battle or threat. This is not to say the Western-style democracy is the solution to all the underlying socio-economic problems that the MENA region is experiencing, nor am I suggesting that there is battle between the forces of democracy and religious groups in the region. What seems clear here is that the lack of good governance amidst a society plagued with socio, political, and economic problems is a potential recipe for horizontal as well as vertical conflict and violence.

10 10 Third, on the economic front, the political instability in the Middle East and North Africa, a major oilproducing region, affects oil and gold prices worldwide. Oil prices on the London market exceeded 105 dollars per barrel, the highest since September Meanwhile, gold prices were more than 1,400 dollars per ounce. The stock market was also affected, especially with giant oil companies operating in the region suspend their production activities. Tunisia for example, lost US$ 2.14 billion due to halt in their energy and manufacturing activities.

11 11 Fourth, on the military front, the horizontal conflicts some of which are still ongoing as well as NATO s air strikes deep within Libya not only cost an increasing number of civilians killed as collateral damage, but the destruction of infrastructure and the environment could have long-term consequences for domestic and regional security. In the future, it is not entirely implausible to imagine a scenario where such destruction could lead to the rise of a future generation bent on seeking retribution, through whatever means available, including terrorism In addition, the conflict and military strikes also undermine the territorial integrity of regional countries. In some cases, this could lead to separation, but in others, they could lead to failing states that might follow the footsteps of Somalia with disastrous consequences for regional maritime security and global trade.

12 Finally, regardless of the justifications of military intervention, vertical and horizontal conflicts will almost always undermine or endanger the population s human security. The Arab Spring showed for example how some government forces fired into the protesting crowd of demonstrators. While this serious violation of international humanitarian law is worrisome, one should also pay attention to potential impact of rising prices and food insecurity for the population all of which are exacerbated by the rising oil prices and infrastructure destruction. 12

13 Lessons and Implications for Asia and ARF 1. The Arab Spring tells us that the old cliché that All Politics is Local still stands true today. In this regard, over the long-run individual countries, especially in Asia, should pay attention to its governance and any underlying socio-economic problems. In Indonesia, this is what we call sustaining and supporting a National Resilience in all sectors of governance, from economics, social, political, ideological, and even judicial and security policies. We now live at a time when military professionalism is as important as an effective political system that focuses on strengthening economic development and people s welfare. Also, ARF countries would do well to seriously and systematically assess long-term development issues like human and food security and consider policies to jointly address them in long run. Other wise, while currently regional countries like Indonesia still faces the occasional peaceful and manageable demonstrations and protests, lack of attention on strengthening domestic resilience could escalate political risks. 13

14 14 2.Regional countries through ASEAN and ARF must also consider sound economic policies as the Arab Spring tells us how a messy combination of natural resources (like oil) and horizontal conflict could destabilize world market and in return, undermine domestic economic resilience. This would in return also affect other critical areas like food security as well at a time when demands are skyrocketing, production has been dropping, and land resources are increasingly shrinking. Food security therefore must a priority for Asia.

15 3. The Arab Spring and the ensuing unstable relations within the region among neighboring countries tells us of the relevance and need to institutionalize regional confidence building measures and norms of non-intervention as well as the peaceful resolution of disputes. In this regard, not only we could be proud for the successes of ASEAN and ARF in promoting regional norms, regulations, and institutions such as the TAC (Treaty of Amity and Cooperation); ZOPFAN (Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality); SEANWFZ (Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone), to defuse potential regional conflicts, but also perhaps we could offer them as a starting idea to our friends and colleagues in the Middle East and North Africa. Though it should be noted that within the context of ARF, we should also still consider various ways we can strengthen regional CBMs and preventive diplomacy. 15

16 Concluding Remarks 16 With the ongoing uncertainty and development in the Middle East and North Africa, the international community must first and foremost act with unity and in a consistent and coordinated manner to restore peace and stability in the region. The world and Asia Pacific countries in particular, should also take steps to overcome the shortage of oil and the fluctuations of the world economy and prices, while marching on to address long-term critical development issues such as food security and climate change. There is also a need to support humanitarian assistance, both in Libya or its neighboring countries, as well as the ongoing peace and anti-piracy efforts in Somalia. The Arab Spring should finally be seen not only in terms of its negative security implications, but also as an opportunity to restore order in the Middle East and North Africa as well as Somalia to bring stability, peace, and common prosperity. In this endeavour, we believe ASEAN and ARF can play its part.

17 Thankyou 17