IPB Congres War in Syria and The Future Of the Middle-East 30/09-03/ Haytham Manna

Transcription

1 IPB Congres War in Syria and The Future Of the Middle-East 30/09-03/ Haytham Manna 1

2 Half a century of authoritarian State Within nearly half a century, the authoritarian power in the Middle East, ensured that the judicial instruments were crushed, it killed moral attitude and abolished the peculiar quality of the human being. However, systematic trashing of the communities capability turned the region into a soft belly in the era of globalising state of emergency. Is it possible in such situation to face the threat of foreign intervention and make internal democratic change with the peaceful civil movement, which started from Dar a in the 18 th of March 2011? 2

3 The Iraqi virus of Breaking The occupation of Iraq in 2003 changed the original idea of societal change, which occurs normally by the society itself, to a new old idea ( the change from abroad and above). The elimination of the State and army of Iraq destabilised completely the self-building of a modern State: Sovereignty, citizenship and self administration. It normalized also the idea of fighters without borders, Organic* structures and conflicts, new forms of corruption and repression. *Tribal, sectarian, etc. 3

4 Globalisation of peripheric countries Fighters without borders Trans national ideologies New methods of intervention 4

5 The End of Post colonial State Monopolies Pumps Political Money Violence generalization New Media 5

6 Principal Consequences Geo political Socio political Economical Human Rights Humanitarian 6

7 Socio political identifications Rebuilding Ideological Identities Instrumentalisation of Social Mouvement Security again 7

8 New Concept of Rights Majority Minorities Allah s Rights People s Rights Right to EXIST 8

9 From Arab Spring to Extremism Certenly, the tragedy of Bouazizi in December 2010 and the popular movement in Tunisia was very far of the Iraqi event. It gave the population in many Arab countries a different way of changing. Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria began a social pacifist movement to end the old regime. The deviation of the Libyan example toward a military foreigner intervention left its mark on a few parts of the Syrian opposition abroad that have been clearly affected by the Libyan model, which restores the account of the Iraqi experience; this part will become magically official and unique representative of the Syrian opposition as for the Gulf States and Western countries coalition. 9

10 The Syrian Example Basic questions present themselves today and they need answers - Does the war inevitable in Syria? - What are the prospects for the success of peaceful civil movement? - Can we talk on democratic transition in a dirty war conditions? - What to do after all what happened? 10

11 Peaceful, freedom and Civil State For the first time in our history, a pacific civil movement started outside great cities. Youth and experienced citizens began their demonstrations by humble but very significant slogan against corruption and exceptional laws. The political authority gave the worst of what it had in the first six months of the popular civil movement, and achieved in its violent and repressive policy the transition process in society from the peaceful confrontation of the violence of the authority, to fall into the quagmire of authoritarian domination itself. 11

12 This means the transfer to the field which the dictatorship has mastered in confrontation, It could be argued that the month of Ramadan in August 2011 was the month of the transition from self-mobility to a mobility influenced by the media and foreign virtual world, and the the social movement pace changed into movement influenced by regional states. The call for foreign intervention, sectarianizing and militarising the conflict were raised by dialectical relations in the face of the 3 no's of the peaceful uprising which rejects these three interventions. 12

13 Three No, Three yes We should not be surprised by the statement issued on 10 th August that fully reflects the counter-revolution where they put 3 yes facing the three no s of our great secular democratic coordination... so the specific movement began be declined as for demands for civil democratic change in front of big slogans ostensibly catastrophe in reality... the slip into armed confrontation has happened, and the demands for a Syrian Revolution to became a beacon for peoples and nations have disappeared. 13

14 We later on realized the seriousness of this slip. Hence, we went early to the Arab League and agreed with the Democratic opposition to bring the parties closer to a dialogue with political opposition at home and abroad. After 38 days of dialogue with the Syrian National Council we achieved a great victory for the first values of the revolution, regardless that its basis was not perfect but at least it was proved to be a convergence focal point for the idea of defending the homeland, citizenship and refusing external interference, rejection of sectarianism, and it considered civil resistance to be the best way to reach a peaceful transition to democracy 14

15 At this important juncture, the inflated and influential foreign role rose up, which did not allow for this agreement to live more than twelve hours, but more than that, it succeeded in mobilizing the mob against the agreement which turn into a leprosy that they avoided of far and wide. After that, it was no longer surprising that the reins of Syrian political expression were held outside the country with promises of a humanitarian corridor sometimes, no fly zones and safe havens at other times. The floatation process began by leaps and bounds for militarization and the Free Army, which necessarily marginalised the vast bulk of the Civil Movement 15

16 The authority had failed in its security choice, and did not provide necessary reform in Syria, and has founded in conspiracy and terrorism the justification for this catastrophic failure. We can also say that armed opposition supporters had failed: 1 - To establish a political leadership of the military 2 To liberate the factions of unilateral sect Sunni. 3 - In unifying vision and action strategies. 4- To have clear position from extremist groups which become the greatest military force. 16

17 After three years of armed conflict. The experimental freedom fighters controlled by regional western generals, become outsiders. The professional of war and violence take their place: al Qaida, ISIS, Hezbollah, Qandil Syrian fighters etc. The normalization with foreign intervention in Iraq and Syria becomes not only acceptable but necessary. The continuity of the old structures and borders become the great challenge and it is interesting to remark that Syria become today, the territory of losers. 17

18 Revolution or Counter Revolution From Freedom to a new dictatorship New zones Control in stead of Democratization Dependency and Failed State 18

19 ,,, Where we are going? Is the Arab Spring is already killed by the Old Regime and obscurant groups? Can we speak on democracy and Civil Society in a short term? Are we able to press the concept of responsibility to determine the losses in both Human Rights and protection of persons and groups? 19

20 Syria today Approximately eighty percent of Syrian industrial activities have been collapsed (approximately 60,000 industrial facilities out of 100,000 experienced total or partial destruction as a result of armed confrontations and targeting, while 25,000 facilities operate but in partial power). 20

21 Syria today The total losses in the overall infrastructure and natural productivity and revenue amount to nearly 350 billion dollars. It can be said that seventy percent of Syrians are without work. 85 percent of the infrastructure of therapeutic medical facilities has been totally or partially destroyed, and no more than twenty percent of refugees children are receiving education 21

22 Syria today The death toll has exceeded 320,000 Syrians and the number of wounded exceeded the double. In Syrian prisons there are nearly 125,000 detainees and missing people, while more than Four million registered as refugees languish outside the Syrian border. 22

23 Military groups today The camp of the Syrian Regime Syrian and foreigner fighters : Hezbollah and allies, Para military groups, Syrian official Army. The Opposition Da'ech, Jabhat Fath al Sham (al Nusra), Kurdish popular Unities, Islamic Front, Free Army groups 23

24 Regional and International consequences? will be the worst years of the last 100 years in Turkey. The future of Iraqi State is uncertain Lebanon lives with the noise of Syrian bombing. The Gulf countries will receive their dolorosa sooner or later. After the SC resolution, and the Russian- American control of the political solution, they can t understand, up to now, that both are losers, in the Syrians absentia 24