Explaining Variation in Protester Commitment
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1 Explaining Variation in Protester Commitment Survey Evidence from Ukraine s EuroMaidan, Olga Chyzh and Mark David Nieman University of Alabama Prepared for the Forty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society in Philadelphia, PA. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
2 Research Questions What explains the disparate goals of protesters in Maidan? Why do some protesters place themselves into high-risk situations for these goals? Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
3 Overview and Contributions We survey and interview over 110 protesters on Dec , 2013; Compare four accounts cultural, political, economic, education of protest goals and costly political participation; Use distribution-free Clarke test to discriminate between non-nested models; Examine costly forms of political participation at time of participation, rather than retrospectively. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
4 Background Nov 21, 2013: Pres. Yanukovych abandons EU Association deal; Nov 30, 2013: Berkut police attempt to disperse student protesters in Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) overnight; Visual images of brutally beaten students spark public outrage, even among government supporters; Dec 11, 2013: Police again attempt to violently disperse crowd overnight; Galyna Gerega asks residents to stay away from city center; Dec 13 15, 2013 Reports of planned government offensive to take Maidan. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
5 Competing Explanations Cultural (Region and Language) East vs. West; Russian vs. Ukrainian speakers. Political Pro Europe: Fatherland, Udar; Nationalist: Svoboda; General Discontent. Economic Unemployed and Poor; Students; Professionals. Education Under educated; Over educated. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
6 Research Design We survey and interview over 110 protesters on Dec , 2013; Approach respondents as they enter occupied City Hall; > 70% response rate. Logistic regression; Dependent Variables: Goals: Government resign, Join EU, Anti-corruption; Costly participation: Stay overnight. Independent Variables: Culture: language, region; Political: party, voted, 2004 Orange Revolution; Economic: employment, income; Education: Education level. Compare models using distribution-free Clarke test; Tests whether the median log-likelihood ratio is significantly different between models. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
7 Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
8 Descriptive Statistics Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. N Age Female Night Goal: EU Goal: Gov. Resign Goal: Anti-corruption Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
9 Descriptive Statistics: Culture Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. N Russian Only Ukrainian Only Russian and Ukrainian East ( Novorossiya ) No Religion Russian Orthodox Greek Orthodox Other Religion Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
10 Descriptive Statistics: Political Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. N Party of Regions Udar Fatherland Svoboda General Opposition Voted Orange Revolution Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
11 Descriptive Statistics: Economic Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. N Full-time Job Part-time Job Student Unemployed/Other Income: < 5k Income: 5k 10k Income: > 10k Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
12 Descriptive Statistics: Education Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. N High School or less Some College B.A Graduate School Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
13 EuroMaidan Goals: East vs. West Support Goal West Ukraine East Ukraine Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Note: East Ukraine defined as the greatest extent of southern and eastern oblasts claimed by Russia as Novorossiya. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
14 EuroMaidan Goals: Russian vs. Ukrainian Speakers Support Goal Ukrainian Russian Both Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Note: Language spoken at respondent s home. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
15 EuroMaidan Goals: Religion Support Goal Russian Orthodox Greek Orthodox None Other Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
16 EuroMaidan Goals: Political Party Support Goal Udar Fatherland Svoboda Gen. Opp. Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Note: Udar is a pro Europe party associated with Vitaliy Klitschko and endorsed Petro Poroshenko for president. Fatherland is a pro Europe party associated with Yulia Tymoshenko. Svoboda is a right wing party. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
17 EuroMaidan Goals: Employment Support Goal Full Time Part Time Student Unemployed/Other Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
18 EuroMaidan Goals: Income Support Goal Less than 5000 Hryvnia ($385) More than 5000 Hryvnia ($385) Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Note: Monthly income. National average is Figure in parentheses is approximate value in USD. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
19 EuroMaidan Goals: Education Support Goal High School or less Some College Bachelor s Degree Graduate Degree Gov. Resign Join EU Anti Corruption Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
20 Cultural Effects on EuroMaidan Goals Gov. Resign Join EU Anti-corruption Variable β SE β SE β SE Age (0.02) 0.01 (0.02) 0.01 (0.01) Female 2.01 (1.11) 0.51 (0.06) 0.58 (0.56) East (0.83) (0.64) (0.59) Ukr-lang. Only 2.13 (0.83) (0.71) 0.38 (0.67) Both Ukr. & Rus (0.86) (0.81) 0.80 (0.78) Constant 0.34 (0.88) 0.64 (0.82) (0.78) N ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
21 Political Effects on EuroMaidan Goals Gov. Resign Join EU Anti-corruption Variable β SE β SE β SE Age (0.02) 0.01 (0.02) 0.01 (0.02) Female (0.82) (0.60) 0.29 (0.57) Udar (1.27) (0.98) (0.93) Svoboda (1.25) (0.95) 0.24 (0.89) Gen. Opp (1.20) (0.91) (0.84) Voted 1.60 (0.75) (0.64) 0.31 (0.64) Orange Rev (0.58) (0.48) 0.17 (0.47) Night (0.50) (0.42) (0.43) Constant (1.29) 0.01 (1.03) (0.98) N ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
22 Economic Effects on EuroMaidan Goals Gov. Resign Join EU Anti-corruption Variable β SE β SE β SE Age (0.02) 0.01 (0.02) 0.01 (0.02) Female (0.82) 0.60 (0.56) 0.27 (0.53) Full-time 0.19 (0.76) 0.47 (0.63) (0.65) Part-time (0.97) 0.50 (0.88) 0.60 (0.87) Unemployed 0.19 (1.14) 0.91 (1.02) 0.08 (0.96) Inc. 5k 10k 0.58 (0.65) (0.50) 0.07 (0.50) Constant 1.62 (0.66) (0.59) N ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
23 Education Effects on EuroMaidan Goals Gov. Resign Join EU Anti-corruption Variable β SE β SE β SE Age (0.02) 0.01 (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) Female 0.69 (0.82) (0.57) 0.21 (0.55) Some College (0.78) (0.80) (0.75) B.A (0.74) (0.77) 0.21 (0.71) Graduate 1.94 (0.90) (0.81) 0.45 (0.76) Constant 0.54 (0.81) 0.40 (0.83) (0.78) N ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
24 Comparing Competing Models Clarke s Distribution-free Test of Non-nested Models: [ H 0 : Pr 0 ln f (Y ] i X i ;β ) g (Y i Z i ;γ ) > 0 = 0.5 (1) B = n I (0,+ ) (d i ) (2) i=1 Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
25 Non-nested Model Comparisons Model 1 Model 2 Positive Negative Model 1 Model 2 Positive Negative Gov. Resign Cultural Political Political Economic Cultural Economic Political Education Cultural Education Economic Education Join EU Cultural Political Political Economic Cultural Economic Political Education Cultural Education Economic Education Anti-Corruption Cultural Political Political Economic Cultural Economic Political Education Cultural Education Economic Education **B <0.05, *B <0.1, + B <0.2 one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
26 Maidan Overnight: East vs. West Staying Overnight in Maidan West Ukraine East Ukraine Note: East Ukraine defined as the greatest extent of southern and eastern oblasts claimed by Russia as Novorossiya. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
27 Maidan Overnight: Russian vs. Ukrainian Speakers Staying Overnight in Maidan Ukrainian Russian Both Note: Language spoken at respondent s home. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
28 Maidan Overnight: Religion Staying Overnight in Maidan Russian Orthodox Greek Orthodox None Other Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
29 Maidan Overnight: Political Party Staying Overnight in Maidan Udar Fatherland Svoboda Gen. Opp. Note: Udar is a pro Europe party associated with Vitaliy Klitschko and endorsed Petro Poroshenko for president. Fatherland is a pro Europe party associated with Yulia Tymoshenko. Svoboda is a right wing party. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
30 Maidan Overnight: Employment Staying Overnight in Maidan Full Time Part Time Student Unemployed/Other Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
31 Maidan Overnight: Income Staying Overnight in Maidan Less than 5000 Hryvnia ($385) More than 5000 Hryvnia ($385) Note: Monthly income. National average is Figure in parentheses is approximate value in USD. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
32 Maidan Overnight: Education Staying Overnight in Maidan High School or less Some College Bachelor s Degree Graduate Degree Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
33 Cultural Effects on Staying in Maidan Overnight Variable β SE Age 0.01 (0.01) Female (0.56) East (0.59) Ukr-lang. Only 0.78 (0.70) Both Ukr. & Rus (0.80) Constant (0.81) N 104 ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
34 Political Effects on Staying in Maidan Overnight Variable β SE Age 0.01 (0.02) Female (0.56) Udar (0.93) Svoboda 0.71 (0.90) Gen. Opp (0.85) Voted 0.66 (0.64) Orange Rev (0.48) Constant (0.98) N 106 ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
35 Economic Effects on Staying in Maidan Overnight Variable β SE Age (0.02) Female (0.55) Full-time 1.10 (0.65) Part-time 0.96 (0.88) Unemployed 1.95 (1.04) Inc. 5k 10k (0.50) Constant (0.57) N 105 ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
36 Education Effects on Staying in Maidan Overnight Variable β SE Age 0.01 (0.01) Female (0.56) Some College 0.87 (0.76) B.A (0.71) Graduate 0.27 (0.76) Constant (0.79) N 107 ll **p <0.05, *p <0.1, two-tailed; + p <0.1, one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
37 Non-nested Model Comparisons Model 1 Model 2 Positive Negative Cultural Political Cultural Economic Cultural Education Political Economic Political Education Economic Education **B <0.05, *B <0.1, + B <0.2 one-tailed. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
38 Conclusion General protest findings: Cultural accounts outperform alternatives in explaining protester goals; No individual model explains high-cost political actions; EuroMaidan goals: Protesters from East Ukraine, women, and those with at least some college education were more likely to demand the government resign; Women had more support for joining the EU; Costly participation in EuroMaidan: Ukrainian-speakers, the full-time and unemployed more likely than students to participate; Neither political factors, nor region, affected participation. Chyzh & Nieman (UA) Variation in Protester Commitment Oct. 9 11, / 38
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