Global Public Opinion toward the United Nations: Insights from the Gallup World Poll

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2 Global Public Opinion toward the United Nations: Insights from the Gallup World Poll Timothy B. Gravelle Regional Director, North America Gallup World Poll

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4 Initial considerations Perceptions held by publics can and do matter in international politics. Any consideration of the intersection of global governance and political authority needs to consider the extent to which the institutions of global governance enjoy public support and are perceived as legitimate. But are the institutions of global governance perceived as legitimate? 4

5 Research questions What are the levels of public knowledge and public approval of the United Nations globally? What are the individual- and country-level determinants of both knowledge and approval of the UN and what are the interactions between the two levels? 5

6 Existing research on public opinion toward the UN Many research initiatives have measured this. Numerous single-country studies (mainly of the US) UN (Millard 1993) World Values Survey International Social Survey Program WorldPublicOpinion.org Pew Global Attitudes Project Chicago Council on Global Affairs Global Views Cross-national in scope, not global. Largely descriptive analyses, and do not seek to explain attitudes toward the UN. 6

7 Data: Gallup World Poll An ongoing research project that conducts representative sample surveys in more than 150 countries and territories around the world. Core worldwide questionnaire is administered in every country along with region-specific or country-specific survey items. Two primary research designs: RDD telephone survey design used in countries where telephone penetration makes this feasible increasing use of dual-frame (landline + cell) sample designs. Area frame design is used for face-to-face interviewing in developing countries. Target population includes all individuals

8 Global public opinion toward the UN Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the United Nations? 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 37.2% 23.0% 39.8% Approve Disapprove Don't Know/Refused 8

9 Global public opinion toward the UN Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the United Nations? 9

10 Global public opinion toward the UN: Percent approve 10

11 Global public opinion toward the UN: Percent disapprove 11

12 Global public opinion toward the UN: Percent don t know/refused 12

13 Level 2 Level 1 Hypotheses: knowledge of UN Sex Age Education Country leadership knowledge UNSC P5 leadership knowledge Country leadership knowledge (country mean) UNSC P5 leadership knowledge (country mean) GDP per capita (PPP) UN development grants per capita UN peacekeepers per 1 million population Knowledge of UN 13

14 Level 2 Level 1 Hypotheses: approval of UN Sex Age Education Country leadership job approval UNSC P5 leadership job approval Country leadership job approval (country mean) UNSC P5 leadership job approval (country mean) GDP per capita (PPP) UN development grants per capita UN peacekeepers per 1 million population Approval of UN 14

15 Method Logit models in nested dichotomies within a multilevel framework essentially multilevel/hierarchical binary logistic regression. Data analyses were conducted in R using the lme4 package. 15

16 Method: nested dichotomies The data can be seen as progressing through a two-stage ordered process: A knowledge/no knowledge stage ( approve and disapprove constitute expressed knowledge of the UN; the don t know response and refusals constitute an expressed lack of knowledge) An approve/disapprove stage. Knowledge/No Knowledge Models Approve Disapprove Don t Know/ Refused Approve/Disapprove Models Approve Disapprove 16

17 Method: multilevel analysis Individual respondents are not drawn at random from a single population, but are rather nested within particular social, political and economic contexts. Multilevel analysis is preferred on statistical grounds. It accounts for the correlated error structure of nested data (respondents from the same country will be more similar to one another than those from other countries). handles appropriately inferential tests for group-level predictors by assigning to them the correct sample size. Empirically, patterns of relationships vary from country to country variation in intercepts and slopes. 17

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20 Key findings Individual-level knowledge (approval) of the UN Security Council permanent five are the strongest explanatory variables with respect to knowledge (approval) of the UN. Knowledge (approval) of one s country s leadership have relatively less explanatory power. All level-2 variables are significant positive predictors of knowledge of the UN. Country-level approval of the UN Security Council permanent five, GDP per capita and contributions to UN peacekeeping operations are marginally significant predictors of approval of the UN. 20

21 Further research and dissemination Inclusion of being subject to a peacekeeping operation in the model. Simultaneous release on Real Clear World and Scholarly journal article. 21

22 Thank you! Timothy B. Gravelle Regional Director, North America Gallup World Poll

23 GLMM: Explaining knowledge/no knowledge of the United Nations Model 1.4 Model 1.5 Fixed Effects Coef. S.E. Part. Std. Coef. Sig. Coef. S.E. Part. Std. Coef. Sig. Intercept *** *** Male *** *** ln Age (Years) Education *** *** Country Leadership Knowledge *** *** UNSC P5 Leadership Knowledge *** *** Country Leadership Knowledge (country mean) * ** UNSC P5 Leadership Knowledge (country mean) *** *** ln GDP per Cap. (PPP) ** ** ln UN Dev t Grants per Cap * * ln UN Peacekeepers per 1M Pop * * Country Knowl. Country Knowl. (country mean) Country Knowl. ln GDP per Cap. (PPP) Country Knowl. ln UN Dev t Grants per Cap Country Knowl. ln UN Peacekeepers per 1M Pop UNSC P5 Knowl. UNSC P5 Knowl. (country mean) UNSC P5 Knowl. ln GDP per Cap. (PPP) *** UNSC P5 Knowl. ln UN Dev t Grants per Cap UNSC P5 Knowl. ln UN Peacekeepers per 1M Pop Random Effects Var. S.D. Var. S.D. Intercept < 0.01 < 0.01 < Male ln Age (Years) Education Country Opinion P5 Opinion Model Fit d.f LL (Deviance) Likelihood Ratio Test Chi-Square *** *** AIC BIC n n p.10, * p.05, ** p.01, *** p

24 p.10, * p.05, ** p.01, *** p.001 GLMM: Explaining approval/disapproval of the United Nations Model 2.4 Model 2.5 Fixed Effects Coef. S.E. Part. Std. Coef. Sig. Coef. S.E. Part. Std. Coef. Sig. Intercept *** *** Male *** *** ln Age (Years) Education Country Approval *** *** P5 Approval *** *** Country Approval (country mean) P5 Approval (country mean) * ln GDP per Cap. (PPP) ln UN Dev t Grants per Cap ln UN Peacekeepers per 1M Pop Country Appr. Country Appr. (country mean) Country Appr. ln GDP per Cap. (PPP) ** Country Appr. ln UN Dev t Grants per Cap Country Appr. ln UN Peacekeepers per 1M Pop P5 Appr. P5 Appr. (country mean) P5 Appr. ln GDP per Cap. (PPP) P5 Appr. ln UN Dev t Grants per Cap P5 Appr. ln UN Peacekeepers per 1M Pop Random Effects Var. S.D. Var. S.D. Intercept < < Male ln Age (Years) Education Country Opinion P5 Opinion Model Fit d.f LL (Deviance) Likelihood Ratio Test Chi-Square *** *** AIC BIC n n