Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine

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Arline Gardner
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1 Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November 2018

Methodology o The study was conducted by three companies: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after O.

2 Methodology o The study was conducted by three companies: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after O.Razumkov and Sociological Group "Rating". o Audience: population of Ukraine from 18 y.o. and older. o The sample is representative with respect to age, gender, regions and the type of locality. o Sample size: 10,000 respondents. o Formal face-to-face interviews o Sampling error: not more than 1.0% o Study period: 19 October 2 November 2018 Oblast Distribution: RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

3 Assessment of the Situation in the Country

4 In your opinion, are things moving the right way or the wrong way The right way Hard to say The wrong way in your locality in your oblast in Ukraine RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

5 In your opinion, are things moving the right way or the wrong way in Ukraine in general? 90% The right way Hard to say The wrong way 80% 70% 71% 66% 69% 64% 72% 68% 70% 76% 72% 72% 69% 62% 75% 75% 76% 74% 73% 78% 60% 50% 48% 51% 40% 30% 20% 16% 10% 20% 16% 13% 14% 15% 18% 17% 34% 18% 29% 20% 17% 17% 15% 15% 13% 13% 15% 15% 11% 11% 15% 19% 13% 13% 23% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 15% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 11% 0% 11' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '2018 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

6 Choose THREE things from the list that Ukraine lacks the most at the moment THREE ANSWERS Peace Stability Order Development Wealth Unity Justice Influence in the world Other Hard to say ' ' RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

7 Choose THREE things from the list that Ukraine lacks the most at the moment THREE ANSWERS REGIONS West Halychyna Centre North Kyiv South East Donbas Peace Stability Order Development Wealth Unity Justice Influence in the world Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

8 Which of these threats is the most topical for Ukraine today? Economic decline Mass outflow of Ukrainians abroad Impoverishment of population Devaluation of hryvnia, inflation Dying off of population Disintegration of the country Crime increase Deteriorating health of the nation Full-scale war with Russia Anarchy Population degradation Environmental disasters Hunger Mass riots Establishment of a dictatorship Terrorism Ukraine's international isolation Other Hard to say ANY NUMBER OF ANSWERS RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

9 Which of these threats is the most topical for Ukraine today? ANY NUMBER OF ANSWERS REGIONS West Halychyna Centre North Kyiv South East Donbas Economic decline Mass outflow of Ukrainians abroad Impoverishment of population Devaluation of hryvnia, inflation Dying off of population Disintegration of the country Crime increase Deteriorating health of the nation Full-scale war with Russia Anarchy Population degradation Environmental disasters Hunger Establishment of a dictatorship Mass riots Terrorism Ukraine's international isolation Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

10 Which of these threats is the most topical for Ukraine today? ANY NUMBER OF ANSWERS AGE Economic decline Mass outflow of Ukrainians abroad Impoverishment of population Devaluation of hryvnia, inflation Dying off of population Disintegration of the country Crime increase Deteriorating health of the nation Full-scale war with Russia Anarchy Population degradation Environmental disasters Hunger Establishment of a dictatorship Mass riots Terrorism Ukraine's international isolation Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

11 PROBLEMS

12 Which problems are currently most important for the country? Military conflict in the East of Ukraine Bribery and corruption in the government Lack of jobs, unemployment 30 Low salary or pension 30 Growth of utility tariffs 27 Growing prices of main products, inflation 17 Insufficient level of social protection 14 Inability to access high-quality healthcare services 14 Social stratification, a gap between the poor and the rich 11 Growth of crime, insufficient safety in the streets 10 Poor conditions for small/medium business development 8 Lack of freedom and democracy 3 Inability to access high-quality education 3 Other 3 Hard to say 1 43 NOT MORE THAN 3 ANSWERS RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

13 Which problems are currently most important for the country? NOT MORE THAN 3 ANSWERS REGIONS West Halychyna Centre North Kyiv South East Donbas Military conflict in the East of Ukraine Bribery and corruption in the government Lack of jobs, unemployment Low salary or pension Growth of utility tariffs Growing prices of main products, inflation Insufficient level of social protection Inability to access high-quality healthcare services Social stratification, a gap between the poor and the rich Growth of crime, insufficient safety in the streets Poor conditions for small/medium business development Lack of freedom and democracy Inability to access high-quality education Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

14 Which of the following problems are currently most important for you personally? NOT MORE THAN 3 ANSWERS Growth of utility tariffs Low salary or pension Growing prices of main products, inflation Military conflict in the East of Ukraine 28 Bribery and corruption in the government 19 Lack of jobs, unemployment 18 Inability to access high-quality healthcare services 17 Insufficient level of social protection 11 Social stratification, a gap between the poor and the rich 8 Poor conditions for small/medium business development 6 Growth of crime, insufficient safety in the streets 6 Inability to access high-quality education 4 Lack of freedom and democracy 2 Other 2 Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

15 Which of the following problems are currently most important for you personally? NOT MORE THAN 3 ANSWERS REGIONS West Halychyna Centre North Kyiv South East Donbas Growth of utility tariffs Low salary or pension Growing prices of main products, inflation Military conflict in the East of Ukraine Bribery and corruption in the government Lack of jobs, unemployment Inability to access high-quality healthcare services Insufficient level of social protection Social stratification, a gap between the poor and the rich Poor conditions for small/medium business development Growth of crime, insufficient safety in the streets Inability to access high-quality education Lack of freedom and democracy Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

16 Priority Areas for Reforms

17 Choosing not more than two from the areas listed, where does Ukraine need reforms the most? NOT MORE THAN 2 ANSWERS ECONOMIC REFORMS (deregulation, creating jobs, privatisation, land reform) SOCIAL REFORMS (pension, healthcare reforms) ANTICORRUPTION REFORMS (reform of courts, prosecutor's office, establishment of the anti-corruption court) POLITICAL REFORMS (change of electoral legislation, 15 impeachment law, constitutional reform) SECURITY SECTOR REFORM (reform of the Armed Forces, SBU, police) HUMANITARIAN REFORMS (reform of education, Ukrainisation of the information 9 space, decommunisation) 9 Hard to say Other ' '2018 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

18 Choosing not more than two from the areas listed, where does Ukraine need reforms the most? NOT MORE THAN 2 ANSWERS REGIONS West Halychyna Centre North Kyiv South East Donbas ECONOMIC REFORMS SOCIAL REFORMS ANTICORRUPTION REFORMS POLITICAL REFORMS SECURITY SECTOR REFORMS HUMANITARIAN REFORMS Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

19 Choosing not more than two from the areas listed, where does Ukraine need reforms the most? NOT MORE THAN 2 ANSWERS AGE ECONOMIC REFORMS SOCIAL REFORMS ANTICORRUPTION REFORMS POLITICAL REFORMS SECURITY SECTOR REFORMS HUMANITARIAN REFORMS Other Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

20 Attitude to Agricultural Land Sales

21 How would you vote in a referendum on agricultural land sale/purchase if it was held today? 100 Against agricultural land sales Hard to say ` ` ` `2018 Will not vote For agricultural land sales RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

22 How would you vote in a referendum on agricultural land sale/purchase if it was held today? For agricultural land sales Will not vote Hard to say Against agricultural land sales Regions Type of locality. Income. Age Cities Villages Kyiv High-income Halychyna Middle-income North West Low-income Poor Centre South East Donbas RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

23 Presidential Ratings

24 Will you participate in the presidential election, if it takes place in the near future? 6% 13% Definitely yes 6% 47% Rather yes 28% Rather no Definitely no Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

25 If the presidential election was next Sunday, how would you vote? Among all, % Among those, who intend to vote, % Among those, who intend to vote and have made their choice, % Tymoshenko Yulia Zelenskyi Volodymyr Poroshenko Petro Hrytsenko Anatolii Boiko Yurii Liashko Oleh Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Muraiev Yevhenii Rabinovych Vadym Shevchenko Oleksandr Sadovyi Andrii Bezsmertnyi Roman Nalyvaichenko Valentyn Taruta Serhii Koshulynskyi Ruslan Yatseniuk Arsenii Dobrodomov Dmytro Other candidate Hard to say Would not take part 15.1 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

26 Candidate Ratings: DYNAMICS Among those, who intend to vote and have made their choice, % 2014 elections 04'15 06'15 08'15 10' Y. Tymoshenko P. Poroshenko V. Zelenskyi A. Hrytsenko Y. Boiko O. Liashko S. Vakarchuk Y. Muraiev 4 5 V. Rabinovych O. Shevchenko 3 3 A. Sadovyi O. Tiahnybok V. Nalyvaichenko Other candidate RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

27 Candidate Ratings: DYNAMICS Among those, who intend to vote and have made their choice, % Petro Poroshenko Yulia Tymoshenko Volodymyr Zelenskyi 30 Anatolii Hrytsenko Yurii Boiko Oleh Liashko Vadym Rabinovych elections 04'15 06'15 08'15 10' RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

28 Candidate Ratings: Regions % of all respondents West Halychyna Centre North Kyiv South East Donbas Tymoshenko Yulia Zelenskyi Volodymyr Poroshenko Petro Hrytsenko Anatolii Boiko Yurii Liashko Oleh Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Muraiev Yevhenii Rabinovych Vadym Shevchenko Oleksandr Sadovyi Andrii Nalyvaichenko Valentyn Bezsmertnyi Roman Taruta Serhii Koshulynskyi Ruslan 1 2 Yatseniuk Arsenii Dobrodomov Dmytro Other candidate Would not take part Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

29 For which candidate would you not vote under any circumstances? Among all, % Among those, who intend to vote, % Poroshenko Petro Yatseniuk Arsenii Tymoshenko Yulia Liashko Oleh Boiko Yurii Rabinovych Vadym Muraiev Yevhenii Zelenskyi Volodymyr Sadovyi Andrii Taruta Serhii Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Hrytsenko Anatolii Nalyvaichenko Valentyn Koshulynskyi Ruslan Shevchenko Oleksandr Bezsmertnyi Roman Dobrodomov Dmytro Other candidate Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

30 In your opinion, who will become the next President of Ukraine? Among all, % Among those, who intend to vote, % Tymoshenko Yulia Poroshenko Petro Zelenskyi Volodymyr Hrytsenko Anatolii Boiko Yurii Liashko Oleh Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Rabinovych Vadym Muraiev Yevhenii Shevchenko Oleksandr Sadovyi Andrii Taruta Serhii Bezsmertnyi Roman Nalyvaichenko Valentyn Koshulynskyi Ruslan Yatseniuk Arsenii Dobrodomov Dmytro Other candidate Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

31 In your opinion, who will become the next President of Ukraine? Among all respondents, % Petro Poroshenko Yulia Tymoshenko Yurii Boiko Oleh Liashko Anatolii Hrytsenko Vadym Rabinovych Volodymyr Zelenskyi RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

32 Second Round of Presidential Elections

33 For which candidate will you vote, if in the second round of presidential elections the contenders are...? among all respondents (%) 17% 16% 17% 20% 16% 23% 38% 29% 36% 27% 35% 26% 41% 16% 29% 14% Yurii Boiko Yulia Tymoshenko Will not vote Did not decide Anatolii Hrytsenko Yulia Tymoshenko Will not vote Did not decide Volodymyr Zelenskyi Yulia Tymoshenko Will not vote Did not decide Yulia Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko Will not vote Hard to say 19% 44% 20% 17% 19% 41% 26% 14% 18% 39% 28% 15% Yurii Boiko Petro Poroshenko Will not vote Did not decide Anatolii Hrytsenko Petro Poroshenko Will not vote Did not decide Volodymyr Zelenskyi Petro Poroshenko Will not vote Did not decide RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

34 If in the second round of presidential elections the contenders are: PETRO POROSHENKO and YULIA TYMOSHENKO, who will you vote for? among all respondents (%) Hard to say Will not vote Yulia Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko 10'15 06'16 11'16 05`17 05`18 10`18 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

35 Political Party Ratings

36 Will you participate in elections to the Verkhovna Rada, if they take place in the near future? 16% 7% 41% Definitely yes 6% Rather yes 30% Rather no Definitely no Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

37 If parliamentary elections were to take place next Sunday, how would you vote? Among all, % Among those, who intend to vote, % Among those, who intend to vote and have made their choice, % Batkivshchyna Servant of the People Civic Position Opposition Bloc PPB "Solidarity" Radical Party Nashi (Ours) Self Help For Life UKROP Svoboda Agrarian Party of Ukraine Justice Osnova People's Control Revival People's Front Movement of New Forces DIYA of Dmytro Yarosh UDAR Our Land Socialist party Other party Hard to say Would not take part 17.2 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

38 Political Party Ratings: DYNAMICS Among those, who intend to vote and have made their choice, % elections 10' '15 06'15 08'15 10' Batkivshchyna Servant of the People Opposition Bloc PPB "Solidarity" Radical Party Civic Position For Life "Nashi" party 3 5 SELF HELP Svoboda UKROP Agrarian Party Justice People's Front Revival Movement of New Forces Other party RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

39 Which of these motivations will be crucial for your party selection? Mostly, appreciation of the party's leader Hard to say Other Support of the party's socio-economic initiatives `14 08`17 04`18 09`18 10`18 Support of the party's ideological foundation RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

40 Which of these motivations will be crucial for your party selection? Support of the party's ideological foundation Support of the party's socio-economic initiatives Other Hard to say Mostly, appreciation of the party's leader West 11 Centre 10 North Halychyna East 12 Donbas 13 South 10 Kyiv 19 Regions. Age Party supporters Servant of the People Radical party Batkivshchyna UKROP 14 Civic Position Nashi (Ours) PPB "Solidarity" Opposition bloc For Life Self Help Svoboda Did not decide Will not vote RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

41 Foreign Policy Sentiment

42 If the referendum on whether Ukraine should join the EU was held today, how would you vote? For Ukraine's membership in the EU Hard to say Will not vote Against Ukraine's membership in the EU 100% 80% % 8 40% % % 12' ' ' ' ' ` ' ' ' ' ' '2018 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

43 If the referendum on whether Ukraine should join the EU was held today, how would you vote? For Ukraine's membership in the EU Will not vote Age. Income Hard to say Against Ukraine's membership in the EU Regions Halychyna West Kyiv North Centre High-income South East Middle-income Low-income Donbas Poor RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

44 If the referendum on whether Ukraine should join NATO was held today, how would you vote? For Ukraine's membership in NATO Hard to say Will not vote Against Ukraine's membership in NATO 100% 80% % % % % 03' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '2018 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

45 If the referendum on whether Ukraine should join NATO was held today, how would you vote? For Ukraine's membership in NATO Will not vote Age. Income Hard to say Against Ukraine's membership in NATO Regions Halychyna Kyiv West North Centre High-income East Middle-income South Low-income Donbas Poor RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

46 If Ukraine could become a member of only one international union, would you rather it joined the EU, the Customs Union or stayed away from any unions altogether and kept an equal distance from both, the EU and Russia? Customs Union Hard to say Away from any unions keeping an equal distance from the EU and Russia 10 European Union 0 07' ' ` ` ` ` `2018 RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

47 If Ukraine could become a member of only one international union, would you rather it joined: European Union Away from any unions keeping an equal distance from the EU and Russia Hard to say Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Regions Halychyna West Age. Income. EU Support Kyiv High-income North Centre East Middle-income Low-income Poor South For EU membership Donbas Against EU membership RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

If Ukraine could become a member of just one security union, would you rather it joined NATO, Collective Security Treaty Organisation (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.

48 If Ukraine could become a member of just one security union, would you rather it joined NATO, Collective Security Treaty Organisation (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.) or stayed away from any unions altogether and proclaimed a non-aligned status? 17% NATO 39% 35% 9% CSTO (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.) Away from any unions altogether, proclaiming a non-aligned status Hard to say RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

49 If Ukraine could become a member of just one security union, would you rather it joined NATO, Collective Security Treaty Organisation (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.) or stayed away from any unions altogether and proclaimed a non-aligned status? NATO Away from any unions Hard to say CSTO (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.) Regions. Age Age. NATO Support. Attitude to Russia Halychyna Kyiv West North For NATO membership Centre East Against NATO membership South Russia is the aggressor Donbas Russia is NOT the aggressor RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

50 Donbas Issue

51 Which solution to the Donbas issue do you support? 100% Separation of these territories from Ukraine 80% Hard to say 60% % 20% Giving these territories independence, a federal status of provinces, but keeping them as part of Ukraine Termination of hostilities, recognising territories as temporarily occupied, freezing the conflict 0% `17 04'18 05'18 07'18 10'18 Continuation of hostilities until complete restoration of Ukraine's power over Donbas RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

52 Which solution to the Donbas issue do you support? Continuation of hostilities until restoration of Ukraine's power in Donbas Termination of hostilities and recognising territories as temporarily occupied Giving these territories independence, a federal status of provinces Hard to say Separation of these territories from Ukraine Regions Age. NATO Support. Attitude to Russia Halychyna West Centre North Kyiv East For NATO membership Against NATO membership Donbas 8 Russia is the aggressor South Russia is NOT the aggressor RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

53 Attitude to Russia

54 Do you perceive Russia as the aggressor state towards Ukraine? Yes No Hard to say Regions. NATO Support 15% Halychyna West North % Centre Kyiv % East Donbas South For NATO membership Against NATO membership RATING, KIIS, RAZUMKOV CENTRE Electoral Sentiment Monitoring in Ukraine November

55 Sociological Group "Rating" 3 Ivana Mazepy st., office , Kyiv, Ukraine ( ) ( ) info@ratinggroup.ua CONTACT

Elections in Ukraine 2019 Presidential Election

Elections in Ukraine 2019 Presidential Election Europe and Eurasia International Foundation for Electoral Systems 2011 Crystal Drive Floor 10 Arlington, VA 22202 www.ifes.org March 22, 2019 When is Election