Democratic National Committee Senior Conference

Transcription

1 [BDMUNC 2017] Committee Update Democratic National Committee Senior Conference Topic Area: Campaign Strategy for Presidential Election 2016 Inside: A. United States Presidential Election System B. Keystone Topics

2 Licensing This Committee Update is distributed under the license of the following: Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike International of Creative Commons [CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 International] License Deed You are free: to Share to copy, distribute and transmit the work to Remix to adapt the work Under the following conditions: Attribution You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Noncommercial You may not use this work for commercial purposes. Share Alike If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one. With the understanding that: Waiver Any of the above conditions can be waived if you get permission from the copyright holder. 2 / 14

3 Public Domain Where the work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license. Other Rights In no way are any of the following rights affected by the license: Your fair dealing or fair use rights, or other applicable copyright exceptions and limitations; The author's moral rights; Rights other persons may have either in the work itself or in how the work is used, such as publicity or privacy rights. Notice For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. The best way to do this is with the links below. About the License All contents above can be reviewed at: The complete Legal Code of the License can be reviewed at: About this Document This Licensing should be attached without modification while redistribution or quotation of any or all parts of the Document taking place. Please contact the original authors for supplement of Attributions if revision occurs. Attribution Dais of Democratic National Committee Senior Conference, Bright Dream Model United Nations Conference / 14

4 United States Presidential Election System Lasting for nearly a year, United States Presidential Election (USPE) is considered as a high expression of democracy and bipartisan system. The US Presidential Election is held every four years for elections of a president, a vice president, the House of Representatives and 1/3 of senators. Between the two Presidential Elections, a mid-term election is held to reform the House of Representatives. USPE is an indirect electoral system. Each state elector is elected by the people of the country and then votes for the president representing the whole. The elections were divided by the constituencies of the House and the Senate, with a total of 535 people plus 3 in the District of Columbia. The number of electors is allocated by each state s population, which is calculated by the census every ten years and a sample survey every five years. Here s the timeline of US Presidential Election. The whole election is divided into several procedures: Primary and Caucus, National Conventions, Nationwide Presidential Campaign, the General Election, The Electoral College, Votes counted and Inauguration. Relevant procedures and major events are specially described in details for better understanding the US democratic system. Primary and Caucus January June The two-party system has been a major factor for the country s political stability. This does not mean that the US has only two parties, but that only two parties can possibly be in power. Presidential primary elections and caucus and presidential nominating conventions form the whole nominating process, with the first part held in each state and the latter part held by the parties. Originated in Ohio, 1910, Primary and Caucus is for both parties to select out representatives for the National Conventions and decide each party s presidential candidates at the same time. Held in most of states, Primary and Caucus kicks off in New Hampshire and lasts for nearly 5 months. For those minorities without Primary and 4 / 14

5 Caucus, the partisan state committee has the right to select representatives, whom will propose on partisan National Convention later on. Hence, Primary and Caucus is essentially a competition for the presidential candidacy. In the whole Primary and Caucus procedure, Super Tuesday is the most competitive day, referring to the Tuesday in February or March of a presidential election year when the greatest number of states hold primary elections. "Super Tuesday" in 2016 was scheduled for March 1 st when 13 states and overseas territory Samoa Islands held primary and caucus for both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. In this "Super Tuesday," the Democratic Party allocated 865 party seats, while the Republican Party allocated 595, which accounted for the most of the single-day distribution. National Conventions July or August Partisan National Convention is held to finalize each party s presidential candidate. Lasting for several days, all the state representatives participating in the convention are entitled to vote hundreds of times for the final candidate of the party. The elected candidate, together with his or her nominated vice president candidate, formulates a formal electoral program for the coming election campaign. Nationwide Presidential Campaign September November After the final decision of each party s presidential candidate, the presidential election officially enters the campaign stage. Nationwide Presidential Campaign is considered as a most critical procedure during the whole election. The main point is to introduce its political views, make commitments to the voters, and eventually attract as much support as possible. Various activities following will be put in place to gain popularity, while struggles, open and secret, between the two parties, never cease for a minute. Nationwide Speech and Meeting with Voters Nationwide Speeches are necessarily important to attract new voters and stabilize the morale. One s personal charisma, public speaking skills and positive, inspiring slogan will surely attract the attention and empathy of voters. Those speeches are often made in universities and public places. Also, proper contacts with voters will possibly establish a common ground with supports, so one s campaign team needs to manage occasions for individual touches with the public. 5 / 14

6 Media Advertising Media advertising is the major potential method to attract attention and initiate topics. Attending interviews, publishing books, and articles, producing advertisement, those are all ways for personal image. Skilled advertising could cover many aspects. Barack Obama is enviable for his happy family, so his wife and two daughters often show up during his campaign. Although Donald Trump lacks political views and experiences, his outright personality in Twitter and The Tonight Show gains much support for sure (The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, 2016). Also, Hilary Clinton s personal videos are models of success. Her campaign team even hires Google executives for the historical and practical campaign APP. Hilary Clinton and her campaign team have done nearly perfect propaganda on the presidential election. The reason why she was defeated by a green hand, the huge influence of Scandal or public distrust of elite politics, still remains a tough question. (Hillary's 2016 campaign poster attract lots of attention in the social network, for her Minimalist style logo designed with a big H. It s said that the entire visual design cost nearly 600 million dollars (Sina, 2016).) TV debate The Presidential TV debate is an essential procedure in National Presidential Campaign. The two party-nominated candidates for president of the US are about to debate with television cameras trained on them on specific topics. In each section, candidates have time to answer questions raised by the host or respond opponent s opinions. After that, free debates and answering audience questions are also in the procedure. 6 / 14

7 First held in 1960 s election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, only 24 years after the invention of TV, the TV debate is welcomed for its extensive spreading skills. In turn, television media could provide more channels and space for the democratic decision, so the TV debate is defined as part of the national campaign reformation. In the 2016 Election, three TV debates were held through main stations and cable television networks, with the first debate scheduled for the 26th evening at Hofstra University. Commission on Presidential Debates, the private and non-partisan independent organization, announced topics of politics, economy, and security. The approval rating is primarily guided by the performance and deportment on the stage. The General (or Popular) Election The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November According to the Constitution, the president of the US is elected by the voters. Voters do not directly elect the president or the vice president; instead, they choose electors, who usually pledge to vote for particular candidates. Except for Maine, all states have chosen electors on a "winner-take-all" basis since the 1880s (Morris and Irwin L, 2010). It means that: If the candidates of a party for electors in a given state receive a majority of the total vote, then the party is entitled to have all the electoral votes for the state, even though a presidential candidate receives only slightly more than electoral votes of the state. And this system is called the winner-take-all principle. A General Survey of UK and USA: A contrastive Approach The Electoral College (Dec.17) The Electoral College is a method of indirect popular election of the President of the United States. Voters in each state actually cast a vote for a block of electors who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate. These electors, in turn, vote for the presidential candidate. Every state gets one electoral vote for each of its U.S. senators and one vote for each of its U.S. representatives. The Electoral College includes 535 electors from the states--plus another three to represent the District of Columbia--for a total of 538. The candidate who wins a majority of the popular vote gets all that state's electoral votes, and the candidate with more than half of the electoral votes wins. Swing state 7 / 14

8 A swing state (battleground state or purple state) is a state that cannot be predicted in the final election. Both two candidates don t feel secure enough to gain the votes. Swing states are always major changes in the final Electoral College votes. As the last two procedures, Votes counted and Inauguration, are also parts of the democratic decision making. Since the two contains little effort of presidential election and campaign, further information can be found if delegates are interested. Size/number shows electoral votes per state The final result of Electoral College for Election 2016 is 304(DT):227(HC) 8 / 14

9 Keystone Topics Scandal As reported by Wall Street Journal(2016), in March 2015, it became publicly known that Hillary Clinton, during her tenure as United States Secretary of State, had used her private server for official communications, rather than official State Department accounts. FBI Director James Comey identified 110 containing classified information, including 65 s categorized as Secret and 22 deemed Top Secret ( Top Secret indicates information that would undermine national security upon release, such as location of nuclear missile silo), The website below contains part of Clinton s , which enables you to have an idea about the content of those s. You are allowed to select a name to show messages from that sender or recipient, for example, Huma Abedin, or John Podesta. This scandal was supposed to be ended on July 5, 2016, as Director Comey announced his conclusion that Hillary was Extremely careless in handling such issue yet no criminal charge was recommended against her. On July 6, 2016, Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced that no charges would be filed. However, on October 28, 2016, two weeks before the Election Day, Comey notified Congress that FBI has re-launched probe towards Mrs. Clinton s controversy. Resources showed that NYPD (New York Police Department) officers discovered s from Anthony Weiner s lab top, who is the husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin. Such evidence was incidentally found during the investigation of Mr. Weiner s sexting scandals. Although on November 6, three days before Election Day, Comey notified the U.S. Congress that FBI would not change its July conclusion, this dramatic change drastically switched still-swinging voters to Donald Trump at the last minute, as concluded by pollster, Nate Silver (2016). DNC release According to Wall Street Journal(2016), as the DNC Convention kicks off in Philadelphia on Monday, Democrat officials are now burdened with the massive task of making things flow effortlessly towards the coronation of Hillary Clinton as she accepts the Democratic Presidential nomination. The sudden resignation of the DNC's unpopular chairwoman 9 / 14

10 Debbie Wasserman Schultz couldn't have come at a worse time for the organization as a whole. s provided by WikiLeaks reveals that DNC, which should not support either candidate during primaries, offering Hillary Clinton exclusive support, while discussing how to undermine Bernie Sanders from getting the party nomination. "Today, Friday 22 July 2016 at 10:30 am EDT, WikiLeaks releases 19,252 s and 8,034 attachments from the top of the US Democratic National Committee -- part one of our new Hillary Leaks series. The leaks come from the accounts of seven key figures in the DNC: Communications Director Luis Miranda ( s), National Finance Director Jordon Kaplan (3797 s), Finance Chief of Staff Scott Comer (3095 s), Finance Director of Data & Strategic Initiatives Daniel Parrish (1472 s), Finance Director Allen Zachary (1611 s), Senior Advisor Andrew Wright (938 s) and Northern California Finance Director Robert (Erik) Stowe (751 s). The s cover the period from January last year until 25 May this year" Retrieved from introduction from WikiLeak.org Furthermore, these s suggest that positions in Democratic parties, even the government, can be bought with due access. Such hints were exposed with explicit in content such as: if you have someone, send to comer - full name, city, state, and phone number. Send as many as you want, just don t know how many people will get to. ----Finance Director, Jordan Kaplan Any folks who you d like to be considered to be on the board of (for example) USPS, NEA, NEH. Basically anyone who has a niche interest and might like to serve on the board of one of these orgs Finance Chief of Staff, Scott Comer Here s one. I should say, though, that the likelihood of landing a spot on ones as prestigious as NEA/USPS is unlikely. It s much more likely they ll get something like President s Commission on the Celebration of Women in American History. (no shade to women) Finance Chief of Staff, Scott Comer 10 / 14

11 Wondering if there's a good Bernie narrative for a story, which is that Bernie never ever had his act together, that his campaign was a mess. It's not a DNC conspiracy, it's because they never had their act together Communication Director, Luis Miranda We can t go to DWS with just Facebook intel. Kay told me she has friends inside the Bernie organization there who may be able to provide some more information Luis Miranda Interestingly, towards media in May covered that DNC s cybersecurity level is concerning DNC s technology director, Eric Walker noted that The thesis: we hand out thumb drives at events, which could infect the reporters/attendees' computers. So that means that we're bad at cybersecurity. Okay. Relevent s could be found in: (Crossing the GFW is needed.) Search with your own role at play to have a thorough understanding of your position in DNC. Also the website below may help you to have a better understanding with this leak: Media Hillary gained great help from traditional media, such as newspapers and magazines, yet the trends shows that traditional medias are losing credibility and increasing number of people gaining information from social media. Although Facebook and Google are actually helping Democratic Party, DNC should focus more on social media, since Donald Trump is literally a genius on TWITTERING. Voter distribution and composition It is clear that within Hillary s campaign strategy, her voter bucket consists by younger people, women, Ethnic minorities, LGBTQ+ Group, and city residents. However, this should not be the reason for Hillary to ignore rural area and rusted states. 11 / 14

12 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Population(appox.) African American 88% 8% 20,000,000 Hispanics 65% 29% 26,000,000 White male without collegedegree White male with college-degree White female without collegedegree White female with college-degree 51% 45% 38,000,000 39% 54% 17,000,000 34% 62% 38,000,000 51% 45% 17,000,000 White Male 31% 63% White Female 43% 53% Key of Trump s victory is that he won Florida(swing state), and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, three of which are traditional BLUE state. Hillary might overestimate the power of tradition, since she buys no advertisement as well as efforts on these states Another factor is that more and more people shows concerns about economy growth, since the US economy is not that good. And Donald Trump clearly focused more on economy policy (I didn t say that his policies are good, but he focus on it), which gave him credits: Exit poll shows that people with concerning economic condition prefer Trump, and on states and country with weak economy choose Trump, even though some of them are so-called blue state. 12 / 14

13 County that shift from Democratic party to Republic party in / 14

14 Bibliography SUI Mingcai:A General Survey of UK and USA: A General Survey of UK and USA: a contrastive Approach[M], Beijing, HEP, ZHU Yongtao, WANG Lili:The Society And Culture Of Major English-speaking Countries: An Introduction[M], Beijing, HEP, YANG Baikui, YANG Ming:US President And Its Election [M], Beijing, CSSP, 1985 [4] Miroff, Bruce; Seidelman, Raymond; Swanstrom, Todd (November 2001). The Democratic Debate: An Introduction to American Politics (Third ed.). Houghton Mifflin Company. ISBN Harry Enten. (Dec 23, 2016). How Much Did Wikileaks Hurt Hillary Clinton? 1http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wikileaks-hillary-clinton/ Dan Hopkins. (Dec, 2016). Voters Really Did Switch To Trump At The Last Minute / 14