The Role of Religion in American Elections: Civic Engagement of Christians

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1 :f,ditica Science The Role of Religion in American Elections: Civic Engagement of Christians CORINNE STRAIGHT-REED Abstract There are many reasons why eligible citizens in a democracy choose to vote or abstain from voting. Social scientists have known for decades that if a citizen is over age 35, has a college degree and is white, the likelihood he or she will vote in an upcoming election increases compared with those who are younger, without a college degree and non-white (Pew 2008). In addition to race, age, education, and other commonly examined demographics, religion is an important factor in shaping political decisions. Religious voters are called on to vote in accordance with their religious teachings each election cycle. However, is a religious citizen more likely to head to the polls than a non-religious citizen? This paper addresses this question using data from the 2014 General Social Survey (GSS). By looking at whether or not the respondent voted in the 2012 election, and whether or not the respondent identified as a Christian, the results determined that a Christian is more likely to cast a vote than a non-christian. Introduction Political scientists have been studying the factors that drive voter turnout for decades. Why some Americans choose to exercise their right to vote while others do not is an interesting topic. The news media constantly bombards viewers with images of excitement and pride when other countries become democracies and the people vote for the first time. However, in the United States, voter turnout during presidential elections is about 60%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau; and for midterm Congressional elections, turnout was barely above 40% in Some countries, like Australia, have compulsory voting, where penalties are issued for not voting and turnout is consistently above 90% (Galston 2015.) In the absence of a mandatory or compulsory voting system in the U.S., scholars must look at what other factors motivate some to vote and others to opt out. In some instances, the political system itself may be to blame. Many uncontested races in states and nationwide leave some voters with a feeling of apathy, not believing their vote will matter or change their life in any significant way (Pew 2010). In 2014, voter turnout was under 50% in 43 states and no state had higher than 60% of its registered voters show up to the polls (Pew 2014). This voter apathy can have major consequences on elections, especially in off-year, non-presidential elections with only core supporters of a particular candidate turning out in large numbers to cast their ballot while the majority of registered voters stay home. Using data from the GSS and analysis, this paper examines the relationship between church attendance and voting and if regularly attending church services increases voter mobilization. Background There is no shortage of divisive issues in American politics. Gun control, abortion rights, marriage equality, and increased taxation are sure to receive a strong response from a voter if the subjects are brought up. Those issues are extremely polarizing, eliciting a strong "yes" or "no" without much thought. In America's two-party system of Republicans and Democrats, it is not difficult to find out where each party stands on those polarizing subjects and vote accordingly. Religion is another subject that divides voters. The number of Americans who self-identify as "religiously unaffiliated" has increased, up to 22.8% as of 2014 (Pew 2015), and religion remains essential to American politics. In the primary race for 2016, each 134

2 :f 0-liticat Science Republican candidate seeking the nomination was fighting to be seen as the "most Christian" to appeal to voters leading up to the Iowa caucuses. In the 2012 election season, in opposition to the birth control mandate in the Affordable Care Act, the Catholic Church was led to vehemently oppose the reelection of President Obama (Segers, 2012). In October of 2012, 1,500 churches took part in "Pulpit Freedom Sunday," where religious leaders tied biblical passages to the recent elections and candidates (Hughes 2012). Another issue when examining religion and politics in America is the question of whether or not religion and politics should be mixed at all. According to the IRS, tax-exempt organizations like churches are not supposed participate in political activities, such as endorsing specific candidates or initiatives (501c3 IRS Code). However, churches do participate in politics at a high rate. When it comes to trends in voter turnout, religion is one of many factors that can encourage someone to be a more active political participant. In addition to discussing voter turnout, it is also important to understand other methods of political engagement that may be influenced by religious affiliation. Political participation is not only evident in voter turnout numbers, but also in political issues. A powerful example of religion encouraging political participation influence in American politics came in 2008 when the Mormon Church fought to make same-sex marriage illegal in California. The Mormon, or LDS church, spent nearly $23 million in support of Proposition 8 (Sullivan 2008). In the final week of the campaign to make same-sex marriage illegal, support amongst weekly church-going voters jumped up to 84%, following a push from churches and other religious organizations encouraging them to vote (Kuruvila 2008). Churches have become effective political institutions within American democracy. They are able to organize voting drives, distribute voter information guides and state the church's stance on upcoming political issues and elections. Why is this so important? Churches may, of course, encourage their congregants to prefer one candidate over another. The focus on Christian churches in this paper is not only because of the large numbers of Christians living in America, but also because Christianity is an important quality for candidates to possess, according to some voters and lawmakers who often cite religious convictions when discussing policy decisions or potential legislation. Christianity, more than other major religions, has a unique influence on our political process. With churches so involved in politics and the political process, it is no wonder people feel the religious leanings of their candidates are so important. When it comes to religion in America, it is often difficult to find a job where an applicant's religious affiliation is essential to being hired. Other than members of the clergy, what other position requires one to disclose religious ties? Campaigning for political office. Our politicians, especially on the national stage, are expected to declare their love and admiration for God. Up to this point in history, the God they are speaking of is the Christian God. Being the "right kind" of religious politician apparently is an important consideration for voters. All of the assumptions, and even accusations, that President Obama was, or is, a Muslim, were brought up in attempts to discredit him in some way; as if being a Muslim makes someone less qualified to lead this nation. According to a 2012 Gallup poll, 43% of Americans would not vote for an Atheist and 40% would not vote for a Muslim. That leads to the issue being examined in this paper: how much does religion influence voter turnout? Literature Review & Theoretical Framework Substantial scholarly literature exists studying the relationship between religion and politics. Pew Research Center, for example, dedicates an entire division to studying this relationship in Religion & Public Life. Preaching Politics from the Pulpit, by Pew Research, leading up to the 2012 presidential election, explored the assumed conflict between religion and politics. While those topics do not seem at first to belong together, religious leaders connect the dots between biblical teachings, social consciousness, and civic action (Segers 2012). These 135

3 :f 0-liticae science attendees generally share social values, political interests and a sense of civic responsibility because they regularly meet together to discuss social issues that are reflected in a political party's platform or in a particular candidate (Boundless 2015). There is a lack of extensive sociological research on the role religion plays in voting and politics in general (Woodberry & Smith 1998). Religion is not as easy to pin down or to define, compared to race, education, age and other sociological variables used frequently by social scientists. When asked about college education, it is fairly easy for a respondent to say 'yes, I have a degree' or 'no I do not.' Voters fall into an age bracket that is not flexible, and our income is reported annually on tax returns. Religious affiliation, on the other hand, is not a box that is checked on a form or a category into which one is born. It could change throughout one's life, with levels of participation, dedication and relevance increasing and decreasing. Religion is similar to political engagement in this respect; it is able to change throughout the life of a voter. When looking at the sociological factors that influence voter turnout and civic engagement, race and education can also come into play. In his book, Demographic Gaps in American Political Behavior, Patrick Fisher explores many "gaps" in political and civic engagement. Fisher discusses gaps in income, age, race, gender, religion and geography, and how those demographic factors influence voting behavior. These factors indicate both how a voter marks their ballot and whether or not they are even moved to show up to the polls. When it comes to engagement, people are more likely to be motivated to be civically engaged if they have been a victim of a violent crime because they see the direct impact of public policy on their life (Fisher 2014). Another example Fisher cites is the impact of the draft for affected men during the Vietnam War. Men with lower lottery numbers were more likely to be called to serve. These men became much more politically engaged in protests and other anti-war demonstration than their higher-numbered peers (Fisher 2014). If we take a step away from Christianity in America and look at the political leanings of another major religious group, Muslims, we see that a religion other than Christianity can inspire political engagement. One comprehensive study looks at voting patterns of practicing Muslims in the 2000 and 2004 elections (Patterson, Gasim, & Choi 2011). This was an important piece because it showed how Muslims supported Bush in 2000, but September 11th and the foreign policy decisions that followed turned Muslims away from the Bush administration. This study was valuable because it made a distinction between people who were Muslims by heritage, and those who were regularly practicing Islam as a religion. The study was not conducted by phone; instead, the study's authors visited mosques during the holy month of Ramadan, to ask participants about their political affiliations and whether or not they voted. In Do They Have a Prayer?, Michael Warren examines GOP candidates and the possibilities of each winning the Evangelical Christian vote. Warren considers the current candidates running for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination and how each candidate crafts his or her message to please certain segments of that population. Issues like marriage-equality and access to abortion services are framed as a threat to the family and a threat to Christians. The interesting exploration of this piece shows the very small percentage of voters each candidate is w1lling to devote a huge amount of money and time to in attempts to gain their support. Early polls in Iowa, where the Evangelical vote is essential to succeed in the caucuses, showed candidates like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson doing very well, although they are not necessarily doing well nationally (Wuthnow 2015). Consistent with the polls, on February pt 2016, Republican Iowa Caucus voters gave Cruz a victory in that state. According to entrance poll data, more than 60% of caucus-goers identify as Evangelical and Cruz won by securing 40% of the Evangelical vote A similar examination to the politics of practicing Muslims looked at the possibility of a causal relationship between attendance of religious services and political participation (Patterson, D. et al. 2011). The question at hand was whether attending regular religious services makes one more or less politically involved. This study shows church attending voters are more likely to vote for members of the Republican Party. Church-going voters are highly 136

4 :f,ditical Science motivated to support candidates and policy positions that are in line with religious beliefs and are easily mobilized to actually turn up to the polls and cast a vote (Segers 2012). Examining the role religion plays in political views is not easy to determine (Woodberry 1998). Religion crosses the line between private and public life. While many Americans are happy to discuss openly and at length their religious convictions, many others wish to keep that part of their lives private (Beckford 2003). In politics, social theories have made a lot of assumptions about religious voters. Voters with deeply held religious convictions still vote very differently depending on ethnicity and religion (Segers 2012). White Catholics, for example, vote much more conservatively, usually Republican, than Hispanic Catholics who vote more liberally, usually for Democrats (Pew 2012). Data Data, Method, & Analysis This study uses data from the 2014 General Social Survey (GSS) conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago. The GSS examines social issues in the United States such as crime, race relations, political institutions and quality of life. The 2014 data set is made up of 2,538 surveys conducted with U.S. adults, 18 years of age and older, speaking English and/ or Spanish. The questions in the 2014 survey that were most relevant to this examination were regarding respondents' voting patterns and religious beliefs. Respondents were asked what, if any, religion they identified with, how frequently they attend religious services and how important they believe religion is to an individual and to the country. They were also asked if they voted in recent elections. Regarding voting behavior, this 2014 data includes questions regarding behavior in the most recent presidential election; the 2012 general election is what respondents were asked to consider when answering survey questions. Below, Table 1 shows the number of cases included in this study and in each analysis. Table 1. Case Processing Summary Unweighted Casesa N Percent Selected Cases Included in Analysis Unselected Cases 0 0 Total Method To examine the relationship between identifying as a Christian and voting, dummy variables were created for religion and voting and each of these variables are discussed below. Dependent Variable For the 'Vote' variable, l=yes, respondent voted in the 2012 presidential election and O=all other responses including did not vote, or did not know if voted. As presented in Table 2, after changing the variables to '1' and 'O,' this survey shows 65.1 %, 1,652 respondents voted in the 2012 presidential election, while 34.9%, 886 respondents did not vote in the 2012 presidential election. These results are consistent with U.S. Census numbers showing voter turnout at 63.8% in Although voter turnout is always over reported in surveys, the similarity in data collection methods, and in the data from the GSS and the Census, allows for a similar margin of over reporting to be taken into account. 137

5 ff 0-titicat Science Table 2. Vote2012 Valid Total Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Independent Variable For the variable 'Christian,' l=yes, Christian and O=all other responses including other religions, religiously unaffiliated and did not know. After converting these variables to '1' and 'O,' 44.3%, 1,125 respondents identify as Christians who attend church weekly and 55.7%, 1,413 respondents identify as non-christian, another major religion, or unaffiliated. These numbers are inconsistent with other surveys conducted within the last five years by Pew and Gallup that show Christians make up about 60-65% of the American population. Some results from ABC and CNN news organizations show the percentage as high as 83%. This survey, however, included frequency of church attendance as well, which was more important to this hypothesis. While a very high percentage of Americans will call themselves "Christian" by default, they may not be attending services with any regularity. Since the regularity of attendance is important to the hypothesis, these results are relevant. Table 3. Christian Valid Total Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Controls In addition to the independent variable of 'Christian,' control variables for race and education were added. Using race as a control variable is essential to social science research, especially when looking at voting patterns. Whites have made up the majority of the electorate for the entirety of this nation's history and in the 2012 election, made up 72% of voters (Wasserman 2015). While 72% of voters are white, according to the U.S. Census, as of 2014, 62% of the population is white. As indicated in Table 4, this is inconsistent with the results from the GSS survey showing 74.5% of respondents were white. This shows whites were disproportionately represented in the GSS survey. 138

6 :J>o.eiticae science Table 4. White Valid Total Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent For education, highest degree was changed to dummy variables with '1' representing a bachelor's degree or higher and 'O' representing less than a bachelor's degree, high school diploma and less. These results show 29. 7% respondents with a bachelor's degree and higher and are consistent with U.S. Census data showing 28.8% of the U.S. population has a bachelor's degree or higher. When compared with respondents who have a bachelor's degree or higher, Christians who attend church weekly are 46. 7% more likely to vote in a presidential election than non-christians (Table 5). Those with a bachelor's degree or higher, however, are more likely to vote in a presidential election than Christians. This shows, as social scientists have known, that education is still a major factor in whether or not someone votes in an election. With everything else being the same, the data fails to reject the hypothesis that Christians who regularly attend church are more likely to vote than non-christians. Table 5. Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald Sig. Exp(B) Step la Christian degree Constant The correlation between Christian beliefs and voter turnout is significant at.098 (Table 6). This shows a significant relationship between voting and Christianity, illustrating Christians are more likely to vote than non-christians. Shared social values, regular reminders of voter registration deadlines and election dates, along with the church's ability to reach a large group of people on a regular basis, are all factors that contribute to these findings. 139

7 flo.titicat Science Table 6. Correlations Christian Vote2012 Christian Pearson Correlation 1.098** Sig. (2-tailed).000 N Vote2012 Pearson Correlation.098** 1 Sig. (2-tailed).000 N Conclusion The data is a reminder that many factors contribute to voting. College-educated, white, older adults are far more likely to vote than those who are non-white, without a college education and of a younger age bracket. We also learned that regular attendance and affiliation with the Christian religion increases the chances someone will vote. This can be explained by a variety of factors, but most importantly, it comes down to habit. Regular attendance to a church, gym, or book club will eventually become a habit for the attendee. These habits lead to strengthened relationships with attendees who most likely have similar values. Attending a gym, for example, puts one in an environment with others who value physical fitness and a book club puts one in the company of others who value literature. Church attendance is no different. Attending a weekly church service is a habit formed in which the attendee is surrounded by like-minded individuals. Setting aside for now the argument of whether or not churches should be political, without influence of clergy or church leadership, parishioners of a religion will converse and discuss their social values, translating easily into political action. Like we saw with the Mormon Church and gay marriage, a group of people with shared social values can easily be mobilized to take political action. Studying voting behavior has focused a lot on partisanship and what factors determine how a voter will choose their candidate. However, those studies look at people who have already shown up to cast their vote. Strictly looking at factors that encourage voting, this data shows church attendance does have an impact on voter turnout. The data shows regular attendance of a church service increases the likelihood of voting. This approach for studying the. political behaviors of Christians would have been a more effective way to get results for this study. Of course, it is more costly, but visiting churches on average Sundays throughout America would have given a more accurate reflection of practicing Christians. References Ammann, S. L. (2015). Is There an Attendance Effect? Examining the Causal Link Between Religious Attendance and Political Participation. American Politics Research, 43(4), doi: / X Beckford, James A. (2003). Social Theory and Religion. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 140

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