Federation Council: Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet Russia (Part 2) Terms: Medvedev, United Russia

Transcription

1 Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet Russia (Part 2) Terms: Medvedev, United Russia Key questions: What sorts of changes did Putin make to the electoral system? Why did Putin make these changes? To what extent have these changes undermined democracy in Russia? Starting point: Yeltsin-era structure Federation Council: Basic rule => 2 reps for each subject During 1990s: governor and speaker of regional legislature were designated representatives What are the problems with this setup? What changes does Putin make (pursuant to August 2000 law)? Executive rep is appointed by gov of region Legislative rep is elected by regional legislature Why did governors go along with this new law? 1

2 President Federation Council Appointment Appointment Election Governors Regional Legislatures Voters Election Duma: Original selection system required voters to vote for an individual (SMD) and a party (party list) What were the problems with this system? Political parties were slow to evolve Dual selection systems Capacity to vote for none of the above Putin-led reforms to the party system His critique of system ( ): Driven by personalities not parties Goal => fewer but stronger parties 2 waves of reforms: : All political parties required to reregister Must demonstrate broad support across country Elimination of direct elections for governors 2004 (post-beslan): Eliminates single-member districts (all proportional) Threshold raised to 7% Minimum turnout requirements eliminated 2

3 Putin s response re party development Goal: manageable number of parties Mechanism: Parties have to register w/ the state Parties must show support across country Introduce partial state financing for campaigns Increase threshold for Duma representation to 7% Eliminates ability to vote no to all candidates Longstanding dissatisfaction w/ dualistic electoral system Yeltsin wanted to eliminate party lists -- unsuccessful Putin succeeded in eliminating single-member districts List SMD List SMD Communist Party LDPR Our Home is Russia Yabloko Unity / United Russia Independent NA 77 NA 114 Reforms opposed by many Communist Party & Yabloko (democrats) were united in their opposition Putin s dominance within the Duma following the 1999 elections made such opposition irrelevant Duma passes series of major bills that had been stuck in partisan bickering for most of the 1990s Ex: tax code & labor code Have we returned to the rubber stamp legislature? The pager Duma 3

4 Comparison of the 5 legislative elections: vote in PR elections Party Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12) Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) [Zhirinovskii] Russia s Choice [Gaidar] X (16) X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8) Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (4) (2) Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10) Unity [Gryzlov alliance w/ Putin] In 2003 United Russia Fatherland [Luzhkov] In 2000 joins forces w/ Unity Union of Right Forces [Khakamada; Nemtsov] rebirth of Russia s Choice X (24) X (37) X (64) X (13) X (9) (4) (1) Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9) A Just Russia Party [pro-kremlin] X (8) % of PR vote wasted [8] Vote for Putin! Putin announces candidacy for Duma Nov 07: Pro-Putin demonstration Democratic-oriented parties Fail to capture popular enthusiasm Steady decline 93: 24% of PR vote 95: 17% of PR vote 99: 13% of PR vote 03: no party gets over 5% 07: no party gets over 7% Possible explanations: Democratic parties blamed for difficulties of transition Leaders of dem. parties unwilling to compromise Could ve been rep d in 2004 Duma if they had joined together By 2007, combined total was below threshhold Leaders unable to tap into popular issues lack of media access 4

5 Comparison of the 5 legislative elections: vote in PR elections Party Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12) Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) [Zhirinovskii] Russia s Choice [Gaidar] X (16) X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8) Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (4) (2) Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10) Unity [Gryzlov alliance w/ Putin] In 2003 United Russia Fatherland [Luzhkov] In 2000 joins forces w/ Unity Union of Right Forces [Khakamada; Nemtsov] rebirth of Russia s Choice X (24) X (37) X (64) X (13) X (9) (4) (1) Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9) A Just Russia Party [pro-kremlin] X (8) % of PR vote wasted [8] Parties created on eve of election win support 1999: Unity 2003: Motherland (Rodina) 2007: A Just Russia Putin s dominance Unity & Fatherland morph into United Russia and win 37% of vote in 2003 United Russia has always been perceived as Putin s party Putin effectively neutralized potential rivals, then handpicks his successor Return to one-party state? Public opinion polls: United Russia: 60% Communists: 16% LDPR (Zhirinovskii) 11% Yabloko: 1% 5

6 Levada Center Pres. election => foregone conclusion Occurs in wake of Yeltsin s resignation Putin is acting president 11 candidates register Including several repeat candidates from 1996 (Zyuganov & Yavlinskii) Putin won election on the first ballot with 53% of vote Riding wave of popularity thanks to renewed Chechen war Benefited from comparison to Yeltsin 2004 Presidential election: Formally competitive -- 5 challengers to Putin Generational change no repeats from 96 or 2000 In reality none of the challengers could get traction Putin dominated the air waves Criticized by OSCE (election observers) Results: easy victory for Putin on first round of voting Putin 71% Kharitonov (Com Party) 14% Glazyev (Rodina) 4% Khakamada (Union of Right Forces) 4% None of the above 4% 6

7 The run-up to the 2008 pres election: Constitution bars Putin from running again. BUT majority of Russians support 3d term Putin chooses not to run Why? Putin hand-picks successor: Dmitri Medvedev Where did Medvedev come from? Background? Did Russians think it was constitutional for Putin to pick his successor? Yes: 43% No: 23% Hard to say: 26% 7

8 Medvedev wins 2008 presidential election Medvedev: 70.4% Zyuganov (Communist): 17.8% Zhirinovskii (LDPR): 9.4% Bogdanov: 1.3% Turnout estimated at 67% The Putin-Medvedev relationship: Most Russians (over 80%) believe Putin still retains same influence in political life Tandem power between two doesn t bother Russians Assessing democracy: Impact of multiple elections where results are believed to be manipulated Do Russians care? Does the world community care? Revival of cult of personality? 8