Strategic Implications of Demographic Change in Asia

Transcription

1 Strategic Implications of Demographic Change in Asia Analysis based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects Presentation at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI, 25 May 2012 Gerhard K. Heilig United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section Updated: 6 July 2012

2 The author is Chief of the Population Estimates and Projections Section at the United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). The presentation was given at the conference on Demographic Decline in Asia and the Future of Regional Security at the U.S. Naval War College, May, 2012, Newport, RI Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. The presentation s content has not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this presentation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

3 Population and Security Risks: Popular arguments 0 Demography might affect security because population growth leads to environmental degradation, landshortage, or hunger, which triggers conflict over scarce resources excess of boys over girls ( Asia s male preference ) creates male gangs who are more willing to go to war young populations have more conflicts: youthful hormones trigger aggression; ageing populations are more peaceful ; fertility decline reduces surplus sons that could be more easily acceptable (conflict reduction of China s single child policy ) population decline in rich societies invites aggression and creates undefended wealth

4 Population and Security Risks 0 Demography might affect security because population growth leads to environmental degradation, land-shortage, or hunger, which triggers conflict over scarce resources excess of boys over girls ( Asia s male preference ) creates male gangs who are more willing to go to war young populations have more conflicts: youthful hormones trigger aggression; ageing populations are more peaceful ; fertility decline reduces surplus sons that could be more easily acceptable (conflict reduction of China s single child policy) population decline in rich societies invites aggression and creates undefended wealth These arguments are all questionable! Demography can affect how governments respond to conflicts how they shape conflicts. Demography usually does not explain why and when conflicts arise. The following model shows that a country s demographic situation is only one of many context factors that may shape a conflict.

5 Population and (International) Conflict 0 Adaptation Diplomacy Integration Institutionalization Gain or preserve a position of power (political superiority) DOMINANCE Ideological, religious or ethical fanatism RAGE Gain or preserve wealth (economic advantage) GREED 1. Population: Size / Distribution / Concentration / Structure 2. Geography / Natural Environment: Location / Resources 3. Economic System: Market / Command & Control / Mixed 4. Political System: Democracy / Gerontocracy / Dictatorship Goal Attainment War Latency Cultural Infiltration Context Factors

6 Population and Conflict: A basic model 0 To better understand the relationship between population and conflict it is useful to distinguish (at least) three layers: Ultimate drivers (inner circles in previous slide): desire to gain or preserve a position of power / dominance desire to gain or preserve an economic advantage desire to gain dominance with, or preserve, particular ideas (political or economic ideology, ethnic identity, religious belief) Principal types of response: Adaptation: Diplomacy, contain conflict by adjusting to the situation Goal Attainment: Wage war (only chose, when sure to win!); eliminate threat Integration: Institutionalize adverse relationship (Example: Cold War ) Latency: Infiltrate culture of adversary; fight from within ; win cold war with blue jeans and rock music, convince adversary that your values are better Context factors: Population: Size, (global) distribution, concentration (urbanization), (age) structure Geography / Natural Environment: Location / topography / climate / natural resources Economic System: Market, command & control, mixed, integration into global economy Political System: Democracy / gerontocracy / dictatorship; stable / vulnerable

7 Population and Conflict 0 There is little evidence that demographic factors trigger conflicts, but it is quite certain that they can shape the way how conflicts are carried out by adversaries. Four demographic characteristics (population size, global population balance, urbanization, and population age structure) are most relevant in that context.

8 How does Demography shape conflicts? Absolute numbers (population size) Distribution (global balance) Concentration (urbanization) Structure (population ageing)

9 How does Demography shape conflicts? 1 Numbers

10 Total Population by Variant, Billions 27 Billion 16 Billion 10 Billion 6 Billion Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

11 Change in Population: (millions) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

12 Change in Population: (millions) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

13 Total Population: (millions) 1 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

14 How does Population Size shape conflicts? 1 Very large populations (hundreds of millions of people) have a higher potential for (economic, political and military) supremacy: population-rich countries can become economic, political or military super-powers with the right economic, political and military development strategy Small countries will never become major political, economic or military players, no matter what they do. Scale matters! Nigeria, Brazil or Pakistan could become major (economic and military) powers in the future. information gathering will likely be modified for very populous adversaries: intelligence will be more technology-oriented, needs better raster and better analytics to avoid information overload conflict strategy will likely be more diversity-conscious: large populations are usually much less homogenous than small nations

15 How does Demography shape conflicts? 2 Distribution (global)

16 Total Population by Major Area, % 21.6% 35.3% 6.7% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

17 Changes in world population 2 Share of world population (percent) Europe 21.6% 6.7% Africa 9.1% 35.3% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

18 How does Population Distribution shape conflicts? 1 The global shift of population centers to Asia and Africa will affect military technology: more maritime technology, longdistance capabilities, climate-adjusted capabilities (deserts) affect military supply logistics: long-distance transport, difficult terrain, lacking infrastructure create language barriers: Asia and Africa combined have hundreds of languages Conflicts are where the people are or where they have their interests (conflicts will likely move to Asia and Africa)

19 How does Demography shape conflicts? 3 Concentration

20 Urban Population Change: Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

21 Urban Concentration 3 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

22 World: Mega-Cities with 10+ Million Inhabitants 3 Number Population (millions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

23 How does Population Concentration shape conflicts? 3 The increasing concentration of people in urban areas will affect military technology: urban combat, body protection, communication capabilities Urbanization increases possibility of spontaneous protests, lawlessness, violent loitering: urban people don t have to go far to join a crowd (peasants have to go on a long march in a conflict) Urbanization increases risk of lonely wolf attacks: it is easier to disappear in a 20-million mega-city than in a sparsely populated rural area Casualties could be enormous of one single successful attack Urbanization creates multiple vulnerabilities (economic assets, energy and water supply, communication, transportation infrastructure)

24 How does Demography shape conflicts? 4 Structure

25 Total Population by Age Groups, Millions Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

26 Population Age 0-14 by Major Area, Millions Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

27 Most-Active Population Age Years 3 percent of total population Window of economic opportunity Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

28 Population Age 50+ Years Population Ageing Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York 3 percent of total population

29 Population Age 0-19 and 50+ Years 3 Age 0-19 Age 50+ The world is ageing! 50+ population will increase from 1.4 to 4 billion Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

30 Population Dynamics, (based on WPP2006) 3 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2007): World Population Prospects, the 2006 Revision. New York

31 Economic Impact of Ageing 3 Unicharm Corp. s sales of adult diapers in Japan exceeded those for babies for the first time last year. Yuki Yamaguchi, 9 May, 2012: Elderly at Records Spurs Japan Stores Chase $1.4 Trillion. Bloomberg Businessweek

32 How does Population Structure shape conflicts? 3 Population ageing in Europe, America and especially in Asia will affect the size and structure of the military: professional instead of draft army, lack of young men, more women in the military Older populations (= military forces) will likely use advanced technology to avoid person to person combat; drones Hot conflicts will likely flare up in Africa: very young, ethnically diverse populations increasingly concentrated in urban areas Geriatric peace and conflicts invited by unprotected wealth are equally likely in very old (and very wealthy) populations such as in Europe

33 Thank You!