Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges"

Piers Lloyd
6 years ago
Views:

1 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Dr. Durre Nayab (PIDE), Islamabad 13 th Conference of the GIZ Sector Network Health & Social Protection in Asia and Eastern Europe November 13-14, Hanoi, Vietnam Page 1

2 We will talk about An overview of the demographic transition in Pakistan and the window of opportunity resulting from it- the demographic dividend Opportunities offered and challenges resulting from these demographic changes What can be done to reap the benefits offered by this one time opportunity provided by demography 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 2

3 Population Dynamics in Pakistan Page 3

4 Demographic Transition in Pakistan: Page 4

5 Changing Shape of Pakistan: UN Population Projections 2012 Revision Page 5

6 Population Growth: Rate and Numbers Page 6

7 Age Distribution: Page 7

8 Ratio of Age Groups: Page 8

9 Dependency Ratio: Page 9

10 Opportunities and Challenges Emerging from these Population Dynamics Page 10

11 Labour Supply and demand Human capital Intrinsically the same! Education and skills training Health Reproductive and geriatric PIDE Opportunities and Challenges 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 11

12 Age-Sex Specific Labour Force Participation Rates: (%) Page 12

13 Age-Sex Specific Unemployment Rates: (%) Page 13

14 Work Age Population by Sex: (in millions) Page 14

15 Labour: Opportunities and Challenges Opportunity: Low dependency levels and availability of labour in great numbers due to the population momentum following the fertility decline. Challenge: Providing jobs to these huge numbers. Growth of more than 8% is required to absorb this labour force. Generating employment not just for the youth/working age group but growing numbers of elderly in the labour force. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 15

16 Literacy Levels by Sex: Page 16

17 PIDE Population in School Going Ages by Level: In millions Page 17

18 Human Capital: Opportunities and Challenges Opportunity: Labour force with high literacy and skills level can be more productive, with a huge labour force the impact can be even bigger. Challenge: How to get out of the current trap of low literacy and skills level prevalent in the country? Link education/skills with the job market, and promotion of formal skill training and skill certification. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 18

19 Females Aged Years and TFR: Page 19

20 Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Need 40.0 (%) Unmet Need CPR Modern Method Page 20

21 Elderly Population: (in millions) > 40 mn Page 21

22 Health: Opportunities and Challenges Opportunity: Huge numbers of females with good reproductive healthcare can participate in the labour market, reduce the health cost and maintain the fertility decline. Challenge: How to provide efficient healthcare to these females? Specialised geriatrics care is nonexistent area in the country. In the absence of a sound social protection program taking care of these elderly can be a major issue. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 22

23 What Needs to be Done Page 23

24 Employment generation is imperative. Not just any employment but decent employment, one that increases real income and lowers poverty of those self-employed and the family workers. Only an educated and skilled labour force can allow the country to reap the demographic dividend. Improving literacy levels and imparting skills to the labour force that are relevant to the labour market, not just nationally but internationally, are vital. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 24

25 Reducing gender disparities and increasing female employment. Alleviating health status of the population not just for its economic implications but as a right. Needs of the youth bulge need to be catered for, including education, health and livelihood. 03/12/2013 Population Dynamics in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges Page 25

26 Demography is providing us an opportunity which is challenging. With proper policies and their implementation we can convert this challenge into an opportunity. Page 26

27 Thank You Page 27

The Demography of the Labor Force in Sub- Saharan Africa

The Demography of the Labor Force in Sub- Saharan Africa David Lam Department of Economics and Population Studies Center University of Michigan Conference on Labor Markets in Western Africa: Evidence and