10/24/2017. China. Labor Shortage in China?! Outline. Population Pattern. Population from Censuses

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "10/24/2017. China. Labor Shortage in China?! Outline. Population Pattern. Population from Censuses"

Maria Wade
5 years ago
Views:

China Population and Family Planning (chapter 6) Labor Shortage in China?! 1.4 Billion vs. 325 million (U.S.) Made in China, China as the factory of the world V.

Outline Population pattern Population policy and family planning Population issues/challenges Population Pattern

1 China Population and Family Planning (chapter 6) Labor Shortage in China?! 1.4 Billion vs. 325 million (U.S.) Made in China, China as the factory of the world V.S. Chinese Labor, Cheap No More In Coastal China, A Labor Shortage Why? Outline Population pattern Population policy and family planning Population issues/challenges Population Pattern Large population (1.4 billion, 21%) Population Growth, A.D Population from Censuses 28.5% 35.1% 1.34B 27.8%

Demographic Transition in China Why was there a sharp decline in fertility, increase in

Population Pattern Uneven Distribution Large population Demographic transition leads to

Population Pattern Large population Uneven distribution Geography Uneven socioeconomic

2 Demographic Transition in China Why was there a sharp decline in fertility, increase in mortality around 1960? Population Pattern Uneven Distribution Large population Demographic transition leads to rapid growth in the last century Uneven distribution China s Population Density, 2014 Population Pattern Large population Uneven distribution Geography Uneven socioeconomic development Uneven growth Natural growth=birth-death Total growth=birth-death+inmigrationoutmigration Copyright 2011 by Rowan and Littlefield Publishers, Inc All right Reserved 2

China s Natural Population Growth Rate, 2008 Why? Population Growth Rate 1990-2003 Why? Why is this pattern different from the last one? Figure 5.

socioeconomic development Declining fertility rate since 1960s Later, longer, fewer One-child policy Later, longer, fewer One child policy Demographic Transition

3 China s Natural Population Growth Rate, 2008 Why? Population Growth Rate Why? Why is this pattern different from the last one? Figure 5.2 Copyright 2011 by Rowan and Littlefield Publishers, Inc All right Reserved Population Pattern Large population Uneven distribution Uneven growth Population policy Uneven socioeconomic development Declining fertility rate since 1960s Later, longer, fewer One-child policy Later, longer, fewer One child policy Demographic Transition Population Pattern Large population Uneven distribution Uneven growth Declining fertility rate since 1960s Declining population growth rate Massive rural-urban migration since 1980s and rapid urbanization 3

Population Policies Confucianism: pro-natalist Large family means prosperity There are three un-filial deeds, having no offspring is the number one Only sons carry on the family line Socialist

4 Population Policies Confucianism: pro-natalist Large family means prosperity There are three un-filial deeds, having no offspring is the number one Only sons carry on the family line Socialist government: pro-natalist Nationalism and Marxist perspective 19 Mao, Zedong (1956) Of all things in the world, people are the most precious. Under the leadership of the Communist Party, as long as there are people, every kind of miracle can be performed. We believe that revolution can change everything, and that before long there will be a new China with a large population and great wealth of products, where life will be abundant and culture will flourish. All pessimistic views are groundless. Population Policies Confucianism: pro-natalist Large family means prosperity There are three un-filial deeds, no offspring is the number one Only sons carry the family line Socialist government: pro-natalist Nationalism and Marxist perspective Reform era: Neo-Malthusian Uncontrolled population growth will deter economic development Family planning Reform Era: A Shift in Philosophy (Neo-Malthusian) If we let the population grow without effectively controlling it, the realization of the second step strategic goal for China s modernization drive will be directly affected, and the efforts to further improve the people s living standards will be thwarted. This will create heavier pressure on economic and social development in the next century, further reduce China s per capita resources, worsen its environment and bring endless misery to our posterity (Xinhua News Agency, April 28 th, 1991) Acres of Arable Land per Person US Nigeria Indonesia India Germany Brazil China

History of Family Planning 1 st family planning: late 1950s 1953 census: 583Million Postwar stability, rapid growth More than 100M added between 1949-1957 Promote maternal and

health Interrupted by the Cultural Revolution Birth rate was even higher than the 50s 130 M added during 1964-70 Family Planning has many advantages, 1964 Family Planning has

Advantages 1975 3 rd FP (1971): wan xi shao (later, longer, fewer) Increase legal marriage age 1950 Marriage Law: 18 for women, 20 for men 1970s: 23, 25 in rural areas, 25, 27 in

5 History of Family Planning 1 st family planning: late 1950s 1953 census: 583Million Postwar stability, rapid growth More than 100M added between Promote maternal and infant health Interrupted by the Great Leap Forward History of Family Planning 1 st family planning: late 1950s 2 nd family planning: early 1960s Promote maternal and infant health Interrupted by the Cultural Revolution Birth rate was even higher than the 50s 130 M added during Family Planning has many advantages, 1964 Family Planning has many advantages, 1963 Healthy mother and child Good welfare Good education Good job and education Good national development History of Family Planning Family Planning Has Many Advantages rd FP (1971): wan xi shao (later, longer, fewer) Increase legal marriage age 1950 Marriage Law: 18 for women, 20 for men 1970s: 23, 25 in rural areas, 25, 27 in cities About 100 M births averted between due to late marriage campaign. one child is not too few, two are good, and three are too many TBR reduced from 6 to 3 children per woman 5

History of Family Planning 1 st family planning: late 1950s 2 nd family planning: early 1960s 3 rd FP (1971): wan xi shao 4 th FP (1979): one-child policy Linked to economic goals one birth is the

paid to couples with only one child. Longer maternal leave Privilege in housing and employment Free educational and medical services Disincentives Fine up to 15% of annual income.

black child One Child Policy Employers and residents committees had to enforce guidelines. 1) Authorization for marriage: 25 years for male and 23 years for female.

6 History of Family Planning 1 st family planning: late 1950s 2 nd family planning: early 1960s 3 rd FP (1971): wan xi shao 4 th FP (1979): one-child policy Linked to economic goals one birth is the best, two are the maximum, and a third birth should be strictly regulated Excellent birth, excellent education, glory, happiness One Child Policy Incentives: One-child Certificate Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child. Longer maternal leave Privilege in housing and employment Free educational and medical services Disincentives Fine up to 15% of annual income. Couples forced to give up all privileges if a second child was born and had to repay any cash awards it had received. black child One Child Policy Employers and residents committees had to enforce guidelines. 1) Authorization for marriage: 25 years for male and 23 years for female. 2) Mandatory contraceptive use : IUD used for women with already one child. Incentives for sterilization after the first child. Couples with two or more children had to have one partner sterilized (women 80% of the time). 3) Pregnancies must be authorized in large cities: Unauthorized pregnancies had to be aborted. Abortions are legal. 6

One Child Policy Launched when the population reached 1 billion. Initial goal: Stabilize China s population at 1.2 billion.

Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC). Population control perceived from a strategic point of view.

in rural areas. A new family planning law in 2002 One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances (e.g. long interval, first child is girl).

for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities. 2014: a couple can have two if either spouse is a single child 2015: one couple, two children!

7 One Child Policy Launched when the population reached 1 billion. Initial goal: Stabilize China s population at 1.2 billion. Revised goal: Keep China s population under 1.4 billion until Population expected to stabilize around 1.6 billion by Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC). Population control perceived from a strategic point of view. Great variations in implementation and performance between regions Recent Changes in Family Planning Relaxed in the mid-1980s: 2 children permitted in rural areas. A new family planning law in 2002 One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances (e.g. long interval, first child is girl). People who were born in single child families would themselves be allowed to have up to two children Late marriage and childbearing More flexibility for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities. 2014: a couple can have two if either spouse is a single child 2015: one couple, two children! Peak 1.46 B Peak 1.43 B Peak 1. B READ: Recollections of an only child Cartoonists mock 2-child policy. '2005: Crackdown on illegal pregnancies! 2025:Crackdown on illegal contraception!' 7

Birth Rate, 2003 China s Birth Rate, 2008 Figure 5.

Reserved Birth Rate, 2014 Percentage of Women Having More Than One

32 Fujian Jiangsu 3.68 2.16 Shanghai Beijing 0 0.19 National 5.

8 Birth Rate, 2003 China s Birth Rate, 2008 Figure 5.5 Copyright 2011 by Rowan and Littlefield Publishers, Inc All right Reserved Birth Rate, 2014 Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child, 1998 Xinjiang Tibet Sichuan 4.19 Guangdong Fujian Jiangsu Shanghai Beijing National More Minorities Impact of Population Policy Positive: Fertility declined Rapid economic development 8

9 Population Pyramid of China, Female Male Demographic Dividend Population Pyramid of China, Millions 58 What would have happened if there was no family planning? Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion (instead of 1.3). Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of 17-19). Require much higher level of economic development. Larger numbers of surplus rural labor to be transferred from the agricultural to a non-agricultural field. More rapid urbanization and create more pressure on cities and towns. Impact of Population Policy Positive: Fertility declined Rapid economic development Girls status/education Negative: Regional Difference, inequality Coast vs. inland, rural vs. urban areas Impact of Population Policy Later, longer, fewer Negative impact: Regional difference, inequality Abnormal sex ratio One child policy 9

Males minus Females, China, 2000 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54

-3,000,000-2,000,000-1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

difference, inequality Abnormal sex ratio Old age security (4-2-1 family

level Rapid economic development Negative impact: Regional difference,

10 Males minus Females, China, ,000,000-2,000,000-1,000, ,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Impact of Population Policy Negative impact: Regional difference, inequality Abnormal sex ratio Old age security (4-2-1 family structure) Impact of Population Policy Positive impact: Declined fertility level Rapid economic development Negative impact: Regional difference, inequality Abnormal sex ratio Old age security Population aging China becomes old before it becomes rich 10

Population by Age and Sex 1950-2050) (population in 1000) 7% 8.

Population Pyramid of China, 2000 64 60 63 Female Male 52 55 51 48 51 31 18 21 24 80-84 3 1 7 12 70-74 60-64

Millions 58 Population Pyramid of China, 2010 Population Pyramid of China, 2050 Female Male 30 32 40 53 48

11 Population by Age and Sex ) (population in 1000) 7% 8.2% 322 M 2050 Percentage of Older Adults (Age 65+) in China, Demographic Dividend? Population Pyramid of China, Female Male Millions 58 Population Pyramid of China, 2010 Population Pyramid of China, 2050 Female Male Millions 52 11

Labor Shortage Fight for Labors Impact of Population Policy

ratio Old age security Population aging Labor shortage

child. 4-2-1 syndrome: Little emperors or little empresses.

forced abortion, sterilization) Group Discussion Should the

12 Labor Shortage Fight for Labors Impact of Population Policy Negative impact: Regional difference, inequality Abnormal sex ratio Old age security Population aging Labor shortage Psychological consequences: Currently around 70 million single child syndrome: Little emperors or little empresses. Self-centrism. Pressure to succeed. Violation of human rights (e.g. forced abortion, sterilization) Group Discussion Should the state play a role in the nation s bedroom? (Should the government decide family size?) Why? A) Yes B) No Group Discussion What should the Chinese government do now to address population problems? 12

13 Position paper #2 If you were the leader of China, would you adopt the one-child policy? Why? Summary Population pattern Population policies over time History of family planning Later, longer, fewer One child policy Impact of one-child policy 13

SS 11: COUNTERPOINTS CH. 13: POPULATION: CANADA AND THE WORLD NOTES the UN declared the world s population had reached 6 billion.

SS 11: COUNTERPOINTS CH. 13: POPULATION: CANADA AND THE WORLD NOTES 1 INTRODUCTION 1. 1999 the UN declared the world s population had reached 6 billion. 2. Forecasters are sure that at least another billion