Lectures on European Integration History. G. Di Bartolomeo

Transcription

1 Lectures on European Integration History G. Di Bartolomeo

2 Early post war period: War ruins

3 Early post war period: War ruins

4 Early Post War Period: The horrors of the war

5 The economic set-back effect of the war German growth ( ) and trend

6 A climate for radical change Death toll The Economic Set-Back: Prewar year when GDP equalled that of 1945 Austria 525, Belgium 82, Denmark 4, Finland 79, France 505, Germany 6,363, Italy 355, Netherlands 250, Norway 10, Sweden 0 GDP grew during WWII Switzerland 0 GDP grew during WWII UK 325,000 GDP grew during WWII

7 The prime question: How can Europe avoid another war? What caused the war? Three answers Blame the the loser Capitalism Destructive nationalism These implied three post-war solutions Neuter Germany (Morgenthau Plan, 1944) Adopt communism Pursue European integration European integration ultimately prevailed, but this was far from clear in the late 1940s.

8 Emergence of a divided Europe: The Cold War USSR pushes communism in the East UK, French and US zones merged by 1948 in moves towards creation of West German government Berlin blockade Neuter Germany solution abandoned for strong West Germany + European integration

9 First Steps (1948): The US attempt OEEC and EPU set up in conjunction with Marshal Plan OEEC coordinated aid distribution and prompted trade liberalisation EPU facilitated payments and fostered liberalisation

10 The Schuman Declaration: An European Attempt (The French-German Open Axis) Schuman (French Foreign Minister) Adenauer (German Chancellor)

11 ECSC (1952) Jean Monnet

12 Need for deeper European integration As Cold War got more war-like, West Germany rearmament became necessary Wide-spread feeling that it was best to embed and economically and militarily strong W. Germany in European superstructure OEEC was too loose to avoid future war among Western European powers The EDC (1952) and EPD (1953) failure because of the French Parliament no (1954)

13 Two strands of European integration Federalism and inter-governmentalism: immediate disagreement about depth of European integration Federalism supranational institutions Inter-governmentalism nations retain all sovereignty Intergovernmental initiatives: OEEC (1948), Council of Europe (1949), EFTA (1960) Federal initiative: ECSC (1951), EEC (1958)

14 The Treaty of Rome (1957)

15 The United Kingdom Position The Common Agricultural Policy problem The Common External Tariff (Commonwealth) The United Kingdom supports the creation of a FTA.

16 Degrees of economic integration Free trade area: no visible trade restriction between members Custom union: free trade area plus a common external tariff regime. Internal commodity market: Custom union plus free movement of goods (no invisible trade restriction) Common market: Internal commodity market plus free movement of service, capital, and labor Monetary union: Common market plus a common currency Economic union: Monetary union plus common economic policy

17 EEC and EFTA (1960s)

18 The De Gaulle s Era ( ) Political competition with the US Opposition to the enlargement to the United Kingdom Opposition to the Federal initiative (Treaty of Rome) Political crisis (empty chair policy until the Luxemburg compromise)

19 1968: A new French president (Pompidur) Pompidur (The Haag meeting, 1969) An agreement about the principle of the selffinancing of the EEC budget. The opening of new negotiations with the United Kingdom and the other candidates for the enlargement of the EEC. The engagement for the elaboration of a plan for an economic and monetary union. The duty for the Foreign Minister to discuss the perspectives for a political union.

20 , two non-overlapping circles IS NL B F D I L EEC-6 EFTA-7 N DK UK S FIN IR L P CH A E GR West European Trade Arrangements : in 1960s The EFTA-7 and the EEC-6 form two non-overlapping circles.

21 Evolution to two concentric circles Preferential liberalisation in EEC and EFTA proceeded (EEC s customs union and EFTA s FTA completed by Discriminatory effects emerge, leading to new political pressures for EFTAs to join EEC (Trade diversion creates force for inclusion and as EEC enlarges, force for inclusion strengthens) When UK decides to apply for EEC (1961), 3 other EFTAns also change their minds. De Gaulle s non (twice)

22 Evolution to two concentric circles First enlargement, UK, Denmark, Ireland & Norway admitted (Norwegians say no in referendum) Enlargement of EEC reinforces force for inclusion on remaining EFTAs (Remaining EFTAs sign FTA agreements with EEC-9)

23 Two concentric circles West Europe's Trade Arrangement in mid-1970s : IS IRL UK DK NL B D L N S EEC-9 FIN P F I CH A EFTA-7 E GR

24 Euro-pessimism, Failure of Monetary Integration (Weimar Plan) Failure of Deeper Trade Integration (e.g. technical barriers) Growing cost of Common Agricultural Policy creates frictions over budget First tensions with the US (Lomè and Tokio Round)

25 Bright spots, Democracy in Spain, Portugal and Greece Greece joins in 1981 Spain and Portugal join in 1986 after long a difficult accession talks EMS set up in 1979 works well Budget Treaties

26 The Iron Lady and the Europe National policy: A promarket policy Europe: I want my money back Against integration as a new De Gaulle? Treaty re-negotiation (Budget & CAP) A new British referendum Technocracy

27 Communism s creeping failure By the 1980s, Western European system clearly superior due to the creeping failure of planned economies Up to 1980s, Soviets thwarted reform efforts (economic & military pressure) Changes in USSR due to inadequacy economic system timid pro-market reforms (perestroika) openness (glasnost) Consequences for Europe West Germany loot at East The French and British (different) views

28 A new French-German Axis Mitterand and Kohl Jacques Delors (new President of the European Commision)

29 Deeper circles: Single market programme A new French-German initiative (Mitterand-Kohl) Jacques Delors launches completion of the internal market with Single European Act (create an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured ). Important institutional changes, especially move to majority voting on Single Market issues

30 Single Market Programme, EC92 Basic elements (Common Market) Goods Trade Liberalisation Streamlining or elimination of border formalities, Harmonisation of VAT rates within wide bands Liberalisation of government procurement Harmonisation and mutual recognition of technical standards in production, packaging and marketing Factor Trade Liberalisation Removal of all capital controls, and deeper capital market integration Liberalisation of cross-border market-entry policies,

31 Domino effect, part II Deeper integration in EC-12 strengthened the force for inclusion in remaining EFTAns and the end of Cold War loosened EFTAns resistance to EC membership Result of force for inclusion EEA initiative to extend single market to EFTAs Membership applications by all EFTAns except Iceland Concentric circles, but both deeper

32 Enlargement again (1995): The new EEC Norwegians (again accepted) again vote no. Note the re-unified Germany

33 Velvet revolutions in CEECs June 1989 Polish labour movement Solidarity forced free parliamentary elections & communists loss (Moscow accepted new Polish government). Moscow s hands-off approach to the Polish election triggered a chain of events. Reformist in Hungarian communist party pressed for democracy & Hungary opened its border with Austria, 1000s East Germans moved to West Germany via Hungary and Austria. Mass protests in East Germany; Wall falls 9 th November 1989 End of 1989: democracy in Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and East Germany (unification in 1990).

34 USSR collapses 1990, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania declared their independence from the USSR End of 1991, the Soviet Union itself breaks up Cold War ends without a shot Military division of Europe ended

35 EU reacts The European Union reacted swiftly to this geopolitical earthquake by providing emergency aid and loans to the fledgling democracies. Signing of Europe Agreements with newly free nations in Central and Eastern Europe These are free trade agreements with promises of deeper integration and some aid

36 German unification and Maastricht Jacques Delors proposes radical increase in European economic integration the formation of a monetary union Idea championed by French President Francois Mitterrand and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Maastricht Treaty, signed 1992 a monetary union by 1999, single currency by Also, sets up EU s three pillar structure ERM exchange rate crises

37 Euro Area (2002)

38 The European Central Bank

39 From Copenhagen to Copenhagen EU says CEECs can join the EU (June 1993) Set out famous Copenhagen criteria for membership stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and, protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union Copenhagen summit December CEECs can join in 2004

40 Preparing for Eastern Enlargement Impending enlargement required EU to reform its institutions Three tries: Amsterdam Treaty, 1997 Nice treaty, 2000 Draft Constitutional Treaty, 2003 Reconsidered by IGC 2003

41 Amsterdam Treaty Failed to reform main institutions Tidied up of the Maastricht Treaty More social policy, Parliament powers modestly boosted, flexible integration, closer cooperation introduced Amsterdam leftovers voting rules in the Council of Ministers, number of Commissioners, Extension of issue covered by majority voting

42 Nice Treaty Reforms of main institutions agreed, but poorly done Council voting rules highly complex and reduce EU s ability to act with more members No important extension of majority voting Make shift solution for Commissioners No reform of decision making in ECB Generally viewed as a failure Main changes re-visited in draft Constitutional Treaty, 2003

43 Last enlargment (2004)

44 What the EU constitution says The constitution brings together for the first time the many treaties and agreements on which the EU is based. It defines the powers of the EU, stating where it can and act and where the member states retain their right of veto. It also defines the role of the EU institutions.

45 The ratification problem (France)