ECONOMICS OF CONFLICT

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1 ECONOMICS OF CONFLICT Teacher: Petros Sekeris Academic year 2017/2018: Paris School of International Affairs Spring Semester BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION Petros G. Sekeris is Associate Professor at the Montpellier Business School. He has a PhD in Economics (2009) from the University of Namur (Belgium) and has also done graduate coursework in Economics from the Université Catholique de Louvain (Belgium). He has recently joined Montpellier in 2016, and has previously worked at the University of Portsmouth ( ). He is the author of several journal articles on international relations, political economy, institutions and development in both economic and political science journals. His research interests include modeling conflict, applied game theory, conflicts, political economics, and development economics. Session 1: Armed Conflicts. Why do wars happen at all? How do we define conflict? are the rationalist explanations for war? Blattman, C., & Miguel, E. (2010). Civil war. Journal of Economic Literature, Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International organization, 49, Powell, R. (2006). War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization 60: Garfinkel, M. and Skaperdas, S. (2007). Economics of Conflict: An Overview. In T. Sandler and K. Hartley (eds.), Handbook of Defense Economics, Vol. II, 2007, Tingley, D.H. (2011) The Dark Side of the Future: An Experimental Test of Commitment Problems in Bargaining. International Studies Quarterly, 55: Debs, A., and Monteiro, N.P. (2014). Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War. International Organization, 68 (1): Session 2: The Democratic Peace argument. The role of regime type in explaining inter-state wars

2 Debs, A., & Goemans H.E. (2010). Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War. American Political Science Review, 104(3), Weeks, J. L. (2012). Strongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict. American Political Science Review, 106(02), Adam, A., and Sekeris P.G. (2017). Self-Containment: Achieving Peace in Anarchic Settings. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61 (1): Baliga, S., Lucca, D.O., & Sjostrom, T. (2011). Domestic Political Survival and International Conflict. Review of Economic Studies, 78(2), Tomz, M.R., & Weeks, J.L. (2013). Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review, 107(4): Session 3: Causes of civil wars: greed and grievances, and the opportunity cost of fighting Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford economic papers, 56(4), Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004). Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach. Journal of political Economy,112 (4), Collier, P., Hoeffler, A., & Rohner, D. (2009). Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 61(1), Couttenier, M., and Soubeyran, R. (2014). Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Journal, 124: Ross, M. L. (2013). The Politics of the Resource Curse: A Review. Available at SSRN Session 4: Causes of civil wars: natural resources and environmental scarcities. Is there a general theory of Civil Wars? Brunnschweiler, C.N., & Bulte E.H. (2009). Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence, and the Onset of Civil Wars. Oxford Economic Papers, 61(4): Dube, O., & Vargas, J.F. (2013). Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia. Review of Economic Studies, 80, Dickson, A., MacKenzie, A. & Sekeris P.G. (2017). The role of Markets and Preferences on Resource Conflicts. Working Paper

3 Angrist, J.D., & Kugler A.D. (2008). Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia. Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2): Cotet, A.M., & Tsui, K.K. (2013). Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(1): Hsiang, S.M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2013). Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. Science, 341(6151) Ross, M. L. (2014). The Politics of the Resource Curse: A Review. Handbook on the Politics of Development, Carole Lancaster and Nicholas van de Walle, ed. Session 5: Inequality, Polarization and Civil War Cederman, L. E., Weidmann, N. B., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2011). Horizontal inequalities and ethnonationalist civil war: A global comparison. American Political Science Review, 105(03), Esteban, J., Mayoral, L, & Ray, D. (2012). Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study. American Economic Review, 102(2): Montalvo, José G., and Marta Reynal-Querol Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars. American Economic Review, 95(3): Buhaug, H., Cederman, L. E., & Rød, J. K. (2008). Disaggregating ethno-nationalist civil wars: A dyadic test of exclusion theory. International Organization, 62(3), Østby, G. (2008). Polarization, horizontal inequalities and violent civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 45(2), Mitra, A., and Ray, D. (2014). Implications of an Economic Theory of Conflict: Hindu-Muslim Violence in India. Journal of Political Economy, 122 (4): Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. (forthcoming). War and Reltatedness. Review of Economics and Statistics. Session 6: Inter-state Wars. The Role of Trade in explaining interstate wars Bove, V., Elia, L., & Sekeris, P. G. (2014). US Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade. Review of International Economics, 22(5) Dorussen, H., & Ward, H. (2010). Trade networks and the Kantian peace. Journal of Peace Research, 47(1), Gartzke, E. (2007). The Capitalist Peace. American Journal of Political Science. 51(1):

4 Maoz, Z. (2009). The effects of strategic and economic interdependence on international conflict across levels of analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 53(1), Martin, P., Mayer, T., & Thoenig, M. (2008). Make Trade not War? Review of Economic Studies, 75(3): Session 7: Democratic Transitions: Resources, Cooptation and Coups. Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J.A. (2001). A theory of political transitions. American Economic Review, 91(4), Ellis, C.J., & Fender, J. (2011) Information Cascades and Revolutionary Regime Transitions. Economic Journal, 121: Maarek, P., and Dorsch, M. (forthcoming). Economic Downturns, Inequality and Democratic Improvements, European Journal of Political Economy. Bove, V., Platteau, J-P., & Sekeris P.G. (forthcoming). Political Repression in Autocratic Regimes. Journal of Comparative Economics. Lohmann, S. (2004). The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, World Politics, 47(1): Session 8: Stable Regimes De Luca, G., Litina, A., and Sekeris P.G. (2015). Growth-Friendly Dictatorships. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43, Besley, T. and Reynal-Querol, M. (forthcoming). The Logic of Hereditary Rule: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Growth. Acemoglu, D., Ticchi, D., and Vindigni, A. (2010). A Theory of Military Dictatorships, American Economic Journal: Marcroeconomics, 2(1): Bove, V., Elia, L., and Sekeris P.G. (2018). Dauphins or Sharks? Hereditarian Regimes and Natural Resources Management. Acemoglu, D., Ticchi, D., and Vindigni, A. (2010). Emergence and Persistence of Inefficient States, Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(2): Session 9: Explaining and Combatting Insurgencies

5 Required readings Berman, E., Shapiro, J.N., & Felter, J.H. (2012). Can Hearts and Minds be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Political Economy, 119(4): Shapiro, J.N., & Weidmann, N.B. (2015). Is the Phone Mightier than the Sword? Cell Phones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq. International Organization, 69(2): Berman, E., Felter, J.H., Shapiro, J.N., & Troland E. (2013). Modest, Secure, and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 103(3): Bahney, W., Iyengar, R.K., Johnston, Jung, Shatz, H.J., & Shapiro, J.N. (2013). Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 103(3): Enikolopov, R., Beath, A., and Christia, F. (2016). Winning Hearts and Minds through Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan. Working Paper Johnston, P.B., Shapiro, J.N., Shatz, H.J., Bahney, B., Jung, D.F., Ryan, P.K., Wallace, J. (2016). Foundations of the Islamic State : Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, RAND corporation report. Siqueira, K., & Sekeris P.G. (2012). Politics and Insurgencies. Economics and Politics, 24(2): Session 10: Terrorism. What are the economic and social determinants of terrorism? Berman, E., & Laitin, D. (2008). Religion, Terrorism, and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model. Journal of Public Economics, 92 (10-11): Gould, E.D., & Klor E.F. (2010), Does Terrorism Work? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4): Krueger, A. B., & Maleckova, J. (2003). Education, poverty and terrorism: Is there a causal connection? The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), Bennmelech, E., Berrebi, C., & Klor E.F. (2012). Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism. Journal of Politics, 74(1): Jaeger, D.A., Klor, E.F., Miaari, S.H., & Paserman, M.D. (2012). The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada. Journal of Public Economics, 96(3-4): Piazza, J.A. (2008). Incubators of Terror: Do Failed or Failing States Promote Transnational Terrorism? International Studies Quarterly, 52(3):

6 Session 11: The Economic Consequences of Conflict. How much does war cost? How should we measure the cost of war? Bellows, J. & Miguel, E. (2009). War and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone. Journal of Public Economics, 93(11-12): Miguel, E., & Roland, G. (2011). The Long-Run Impact of Bombing Vietnam. Journal of Development Economics, 96(1): Smith, R. P. (2014). The economic costs of military conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, Blattman, C. (2009). From Violence to Voting: War and Political Participation in Uganda. American Political Science Review, 103(2): Edwards, R. D. (2010). A review of war costs in Iraq and Afghanistan (No. w16163). National Bureau of Economic Research. Stiglitz, J. E., & Bilmes, L. J. (2011). Estimating the Costs of War: Methodological Issues, with Applications to Iraq and Afghanistan. in Garfinkel, MR and Skaperdas, S.(eds), The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict. Session 12: Third Party Intervention. Why do third parties intervene in internal conflicts? How do they affect the conflict outcome and its duration? Bove, V., & Gleditsch, K., & Sekeris, P. (2016) Oil Above Water : Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60 (7), Kathman, J. D. (2011). Civil War Diffusion and Regional Motivations for Intervention. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55(6), Regan, P. M. (2002). Third-party interventions and the duration of intrastate conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), Berger, D., Easterly, W., Nunn, N., & Satyanath, S. (2013). Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade During the Cold War. The American Economic Review, 103(2), Aydin, A. (2008). Choosing sides: Economic interdependence and interstate disputes. The Journal of Politics, 70(04),