SETTING THE SCENE. Brendan Halligan Chairman, IIEA
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1 SETTING THE SCENE Brendan Halligan Chairman, IIEA 1
2 SETTING THE SCENE Brendan Halligan Chairman, IIEA 2
3 Presentation Background Political Context Legal Framework Brexit Options Scenarios Irish Interests 3
4 Background UK project set up 25 years ago Chaired by Garret FitzGerald Published 3 books Dedicated micro- site on IIEA web- site Brexit Brief plus Once - Off Papers Focus is on implicalons for Ireland 4
5 Political Context New PM, Chancellor, Foreign Secretary All inexperienced no game plan NegaLve market reaclon knock- on- effects Resentment in other MS governments Worst possible starlng point to do a deal 5
6 Legal Framework Treaty on European Union, and Treaty on the FuncLoning of the European Union Set out the rules of the game ArLcle 50 TEU and ArLcle 28 TFEU apply Are to be read in tandem 6
7 Article 50 TEU UK nolfies European Council UK negolates with the Union as an enlty Represented by the European Council It makes arrangements for withdrawal, and Agrees framework for future relalonship 7
8 Article 218 EC appoints negolator(s) - Presidents Tusk/ Juncker UK conlnues to be EU member - but as outsider European Council decides by Qualified Majority i.e. 72% of Member States + 65% of populalon Ader consent from European Parliament No Member State has a veto Parliament could delay decision - but won t 8
9 Timetable for Withdrawal Withdrawal occurs in one of three circumstances (1) Entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement (2) Failing that, two years ader nolficalon (3) Unless unanimous agreement to extend Every Member State has a veto on an extension 9
10 UK Multiple Negotiations PM with European Council President With other MS PMs colleclvely/individually Plus Commission/EP Presidents Chancellor, Foreign Secretary etc EC directorates, EP commigees, technical groups COREPER at centre of the web 10
11 Division of Labour European Council : High PoliLcs European Commission : Technical/Business Council of Ministers : Sectoral Issues European Parliament : EU PoliLcs 11
12 Brexit Options Norway - European Economic Area Switzerland - Sectoral Arrangements Turkey - Associate Membership Canada - Free Trade Agreement (CETA) WTO - Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) Second Referendum Bespoke Deal - Single Market access - Financial Services protected - ImmigraLon controls - Security coordinalon 12
13 Political Disruption French PresidenLal eleclon April/May German federal eleclon August/Oct Italy Other MS Loss of communautaire spirit? UK Presidency July/Dec
14 Negotiation Outcomes Benign: Goodwill, clear, win/win Daggers Drawn: Animosity, uncertain, zero/sum Confusion: Chaos, messy, everybody loses Limboland : Sudden, unknown, problems Self Interest Methodical, clear, balanced 14
15 Scenarios for Withdrawal Agreement Benign: Goodwill, clear, win/win Daggers Drawn: Animosity, uncertain, zero/sum Confusion: Limboland : Self Interst Chaos, messy, all lose Sudden, unknown, problems Methodical, clear, balanced 15
16 Irish Interest Border controls and Customs Tariff regime Agri- business exports Financial services FDI regime RegulaGon Security 16
17 Final Thoughts Brexit now a real possibility Nobody knows what will happen UK would be isolated from Europe Separated from Ireland Biggest strategic challenge for Ireland 17
18 Withdrawal Agreement Another Referendum? Might require changes to TreaLes Hence parliamentary ralficalon Might trigger need for referendum If defeated - an existenlal threat 18
19 Thank You 19
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