Brexit and immigration: Preparing for any outcome

Transcription

1 Brexit and immigration: Preparing for any outcome 24 January

2 On 15 January 2019 the UK Government lost a historic vote on the Prime Minister s Brexit deal, that was agreed with the European Union. The vote doesn t tell us what will ultimately happen with Brexit a lot can still happen between now and 29 March However, it may mean you receive many questions. This briefing is a summary of information we have provided to clients as the Brexit debate has continued in the last few weeks and months. At the time of writing, policy has not yet been released in all EU countries so it is too early to carry out comprehensive assessments. But what we can offer is an understanding of what could happen next and recommendations on how to prepare. This guide is accurate on the date of publication, however Brexit can change quickly and suddenly. Please speak to Fragomen before taking any decisions or actions. We want to help you understand: What you can do now: On page 3 of the brief we set out our recommendations. What you can say to leadership in your business: On page 4 we suggest top lines for discussion in meetings or an elevator pitch for quick but important discussions. What could come next and the level of risk: It is difficult to judge the likelihood of any Brexit outcome but we can rate the amount of disruption or impact you could face. We set this out for a Brexit deal, a delayed Brexit, no deal and a second referendum on page 5. What all of this means in practice: Pages 6 and 7 recommend a timeline to plan against if a deal is reached and our advice on how to prepare for a no deal. Ireland: We mustn t forget that the situation will be different for Irish citizens in the UK and UK nationals in Ireland. Page 8 contains our advice on the Irish situation. We use red, amber and green ratings throughout this guide. We want to help you understand the relative impact of any outcome or issue, so that you can prioritise. This is a system Fragomen has used for some time, but with one change. Ordinarily risk management means assessing likelihood and impact. We have decided against advising on the likelihood of any Brexit outcome, whether a deal, no deal or a delay we don t believe anyone can accurately predict that. Our ratings mean: Low impact Low to medium impact Medium impact Medium to high impact High impact 2

3 Our recommendations Objective Recommendation How we can help 1. Create a page on your intranet for Brexit materials and resources We can provide content and materials to help reassure your people. This could include a guide to entitlements, advice on how to apply for status in the UK, a video, FAQs and more Reassure, educate and direct employees 2. Arrange a town hall meeting or webinar 3. Write to your people only those affected if you know who they are, everyone if you don t. Plan future communications around known official milestones We can speak at the session, explaining entitlements and policy, including how they might change if there is no deal (insofar as it is known) We can draft communications for you to share and prepare a communications timeline around known Brexit milestones (see page 6) 4. Consider a help line We can speak to your people and answer questions not dealt with in your other materials 1. Make sure you know who your impacted employees are (important whether or not there is a deal) We can advise you on how to collect data and help with tailored communications 2. Protect residence and work rights of your UK nationals in the EU Fragomen can assist in all EU countries with: Local registration Permanent residency Nationality applications Have your business ready for a no deal Brexit 3. Assess how work rights and social security liability of all employees will be impacted and plan to optimise social security costs 4. Assess work permit eligibility and exemptions for employees and identify gaps in social security benefits We can help you identify impacted employees and avoid sudden cost changes. We can also provide insights on the social security systems and costs in relevant Member States We can help you analyse the work permit eligibility of your employees across all Member States and provide bespoke communications on social security rights and benefits 5. Develop a strategy to avoid major disruptions if your UK employees lose residence and/or work rights We can advise you on how to identify potential gaps and re-allocate resources to avoid disruptions for your business 6. Develop strategies for future recruitment policies We can advise on recruitment strategies and help identify risks related to residence and work rights, as well as social security implications for future UK employees in the EU. 3

4 Your top lines The vote takes the UK closer to no deal, but it isn t settled yet. A deal could still be reached, there may be a no deal Brexit or a second referendum every outcome will impact your people in the UK and Europe. The status of European employees in the UK and UK employees in Europe will change, whether or not there is a deal and they will almost certainly need to make an application. There would be a shorter time frame for no deal (e.g. likely three months in Germany, 15 months in the Netherlands) and you will need to prioritise people accordingly. We don t have the full details yet, but we will analyse and advise as soon as we do. It is not clear which rules would apply to Europeans entering the UK after 29 March 2019 to work in the event of no deal. In the absence of any policy, businesses can assume that employees should be able to enter the UK but controls may be imposed. The thrust of the UK s immigration policy a skills based system suggests that lower skilled workers could be most vulnerable. We will update clients as and when anything is made public. It is clear that UK nationals would lose their free movement rights after a no deal Brexit and need a work permit for European Member States. You should assess visa eligibility for any UK nationals expected to move to Europe in Securing a work permit for Europe tends to take one to six months at present and may take longer after Brexit, so some moves may need to be altered or even cancelled. Likewise, also the employees' social security rights and liabilities will be impacted and require an accurate analysis. 4

5 What could come next? Nobody knows for certain what will happen next with Brexit, but for immigration purposes we can think about four main outcomes. We have assessed the impact of each option to your immigration programme, rather than their broader political, economic and social considerations. We do not pass any comment on the likelihood of each outcome. We would be happy to explain how we came to our ratings and what you can do to prepare for each outcome. Government loses vote on the Withdrawal Agreement January 2019 Possible consequences Deal agreed Brexit delayed No deal Second referendum There is a clear policy to plan from and policy in the EU will be partly coordinated Your employees may feel unsettled or in limbo, you may be tempted to delay planning Policy will differ across countries and will require substantial planning Ultimately a second referendum could lead to a deal, no deal or no Brexit. You may have more time to plan but no more idea of what to plan for 5

6 Your timeline, if everything goes to plan It is only right that employers contingency plan for a no deal or delayed Brexit. No deal in particular carries serious risks that you need to be prepared for. Right now the UK government s position is that there will be a deal and many (but by no means all) commentators believe that Parliament feels the same. We recommend that you contingency plan for no deal, but also plan for a more orderly, planned Brexit. December 2018 Immigration White Paper published in the UK 21 January 2019: Settled Status made available to some Europeans in the UK. It may also be possible to change residence status of UK nationals in the EU 29 March 2019: Brexit Day the UK leaves the EU Throughout 2019: Likely to be announcements on settled status in the UK and policy Early 2020: New UK immigration system announced? Throughout 2020: Preparation for a new UK immigration system and for UK nationals to enter Europe as third country nationals 31 Dec 2020: Last day of free movement for UK 1 January 2021: A whole new UK immigration system and UK nationals subject to EU immigration control 30 June 2021: Deadline for applications in the UK Impact Audience Message Action, HR/ Mobility Employees Employees,, HR, Mobility Employees Warn that UK immigration will apply to Europeans from 2021 leading to delays and expense (if you haven't already) You can stay, you must make an application, this is how to apply and we will provide guidance You can stay, you must make an application, this is how to apply and we will provide guidance We are monitoring reports and we will advise on any risks or impacts We understand how immigration will be managed after Brexit, the impact on our business and what needs to be done We understand how immigration will be managed after Brexit, the impact on our business and what needs to be done Free movement ending will make things more difficult but we have a grip on it Prepare for the complexity that the new UK immigration system and the end of freedom of movement will bring Ahead of the deadline: the deadline is looming, you must apply Gap analysis: compare Government proposals against European staffing needs Engagement with White Paper: Respond to the White Paper consultation Communicate, guide and direct employees Registration on Application Support The media, Fragomen alerts, Fragomen guides Map policy against staffing needs. Ensure gaps and consequences are fully understood with contingency plans in place Fully understand the proposed policies and have a plan in place to make them work for your business Consider whether to speed up moves Communicate the issue and your plans to the business Put your plans into practice Explain importance of applying, tracking expiry of pre-settled/ temporary status and making a follow up application, if needed 6

7 How to prepare for a no deal Brexit A no deal Brexit will take us into uncharted territory and it will be a little while longer before the UK and EU authorities publish policy details for impacted people living in each jurisdiction. It is difficult, but that is not to say that you cannot plan, putting yourself on the front foot. We see that clients are particularly challenged by the country by country result that no deal Brexit will bring in the EU. We can help you develop strategies to protect residence, work and social security rights of UK nationals in the EU and EU nationals in the UK and help you plan future recruitment practices. As a first step, you can think about: Make sure you know who your impacted employees are (this is equally true if there is a deal) You might be one of the lucky few who have an accurate idea of who your population are, but if not, we can help with ideas, drawing from the different practices we see amongst our clients. That said, there is no easy answer Make sure you know what impacted employees need to apply for and by when Impacted employees may need to take action in the country in which they reside. EU nationals in the UK can register their status under the EU Settlement Scheme Policy details are still emerging across the various countries but the picture is beginning to form. We know that Germany will probably have a three month grace period, while in the Netherlands this will be 15 months. We can help you begin to prioritise your populations before mapping their circumstances against eligibility, requirements and processes Make sure the business knows that no deal will mean that UK nationals immediately lose their free movement rights UK Nationals are likely to be able to continue to live and work in the country in which they reside but action is required Employees will be worried about their lives in any given country. The business will be worried about their welfare while also looking to avoid work interruptions We can help you compose messages, provide guidance and speak directly to your employees Assess work permit eligibility and timing for any UK national likely to move to and work in Europe in 2019 Work permits will be needed and may not be ready quickly it typically takes between one and six months to secure a work permit in Europe and that will likely take longer in the early stages of the new regime You might want to apply early, but currently only the Netherlands will accept applications from UK nationals before Brexit We can help you highlight the impact to the business and understand whether moves need to be brought forward, delayed or in the worst cases cancelled Pay particular attention to cross border workers, commuters and frontier workers Securing work and residence rights in the country you live in is one thing, securing work rights in two or more countries after Brexit will be very tricky We can help you by advising on options for particular people and particular groups We can advise on cross-border solutions in Europe, for instance how the EU ICT Directive can help 7

8 Brexit: UK and Ireland All eyes are on European and UK citizens who need to register their status, but we must not forget that Ireland is different. Under the current legislative framework and proposed arrangements, Brexit will not have any effect on the residency right of Irish citizens living in the UK or UK nationals living in Ireland. It might have implications for their family members. This advice assumes that the UK and EU will reach a deal for Brexit. A no deal Brexit will likely change the position for family members in the UK and Ireland, in which case please contact Fragomen for more advice or check our website for updates. This is what you need to know: IRISH CITIZENS IN THE UK Irish citizens: No change. Irish citizens will be able to reside and work and will not need to undergo any immigration process. European family members of Irish citizens: Any European family members will need to apply for status. That will be settled status if they have been here for five years or pre-settled status if they have been here for less time and entered before 31 December You can find information here. Non-European family members of Irish citizens: They will also need to apply for status. Unlike Europeans, they will need evidence of their relationship with the Irish citizen. Family members can also apply under the immigration rules. On balance, we think this will often be less helpful than the settled status scheme but we can advise on a case by case basis. UK CITIZENS IN IRELAND UK citizens: No change. UK citizens will be able to reside and work and will not need to undergo any immigration process. European family members of UK citizens: No change. All European family members will continue to be able to reside and work and will not need to undergo any immigration process. Non-European family members of UK citizens: Any such family members already in Ireland enjoy residence rights under the current EU free movement rules until 1 January 2021 (the end of the transition period). Until then, these family members can come to Ireland without restrictions and apply for status under EU free movement rules upon arrival. They can build their rights towards permanent residency (which is usually acquired after five years of legal residence) in Ireland. From 1 January 2021 a new immigration regime will be in place between the EU and the UK. The admission criteria and other conditions will have to be agreed upon between the EU and the UK. Any person born in the island of Ireland (including Northern Ireland) before 1 January 2005 is an Irish citizen, independent of the nationality of the parents. A child born in the island of Ireland (including Northern Ireland) on or after 1 January 2005 is an Irish citizen if he/she has a UK citizen parent. Due to the UK and Ireland s shared history many UK citizens might also have an entitlement to Irish citizenship due to ancestry, by way of Foreign Birth Registration. 8