Brexit How might it affect migration, housing need and allocations?

Transcription

1 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us CIH member webinar Brexit How might it affect migration, housing need and allocations? John Perry

2 What will we cover today? How big is EU migration to the UK? How does it affect population size and household growth? What about migration to Europe from elsewhere? So why do nationals of countries outside Europe come to the UK? How might Brexit affect migration to the UK from the EU? migration to the UK from the rest of the world? housing demand and housing allocations? What is the timetable? How can I keep up to date? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 2

3 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us How big is EU migration to the UK? How does it affect population size and household growth?

4 EU migration some facts There are about 3m EU nationals already in the UK Many have lived here long term some 70% for more than 5 years Many are eligible for permanent residency In any one year, about half of new migrants are from other EU countries And about half of those EU migrants are from the new EU states that joined from 2004 Poland is the single biggest EU source of migrants At the same time, some 1.2m British nationals live elsewhere in the EU Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 4

5 EU citizens make up about half of total UK migration Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 5

6 Breakdown of EU migration Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 6

7 Rise in numbers of EU nationals in the UK Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 7

8 EU migration to the UK what drives it? Work is the main reason About two-thirds of EU migrants are working (many of the rest will not be of working age) Two-thirds of new EU migrants come to work Welfare benefits are not a significant driver Most EU claimants claim in-work not out-of-work benefits Only 7% of tax credit claims are from EU nationals Overall, EU migrants pay more in tax and NI than they receive in tax credits or child benefit Other reasons for coming to the UK are to study and for family reasons (e.g. marriage, retirement) Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 8

9 How does migration affect household growth? Migration and natural increases due to migration affect UK population totals This + housing market factors affect household growth Net migration accounts for about 37% of projected household growth in England over the next 25 years Current projections are pre-referendum Northern Ireland population growth is relatively unaffected by migration Wales would only grow slightly without migration Scotland s population would fall with zero migration Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 9

10 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us What about migration to Europe from elsewhere?

11 What drives migration to Europe from elsewhere? Wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen Repression or conflicts in Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and some other parts of Africa Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey already have millions of refugees in camps People travel by land/sea to EU countries to seek a place of safety and rebuild their lives Are they asylum seekers, refugees or economic migrants? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 11

12 Migrants to the EU from outside Europe In 2015 more than one million migrants arrived in the EU mainly as asylum seekers Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 12

13 Syrian refugees: where are they going? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 13

14 Migrants to the EU from outside Europe But few of these reach the UK Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 14

15 Asylum applications in the year ending March 2016 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 15

16 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us So why do nationals of countries outside Europe come to the UK?

17 Why do non-eu nationals come to the UK? Asylum is the least important reason Studying is by far the biggest Work and then family reasons are next in importance Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 17

18 Reasons for non-eu migration Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 18

19 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us How might Brexit affect migration to the UK from the EU?

20 Possible immediate effects EU migration could increase as people try to reach the UK before free movement ends EU nationals here could seek UK citizenship or indefinite leave to remain British nationals elsewhere in the EU could return to the UK (and look for housing?) Much will depend on clarity about the status of EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 20

21 Free movement what is it? EU single market provides four freedoms the free movement of goods, services, money and people within the EU In addition, EU nationals are all EU citizens with rights in any EU country So free movement in practice means: freedom to enter, leave and reside in any EU state freedom to work freedom to bring family members the right to equal treatment (in jobs, tax, welfare, etc.) Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 21

22 Free movement where does it apply? Applies to and between all EU member states Transitional rules for new member states applied to Bulgaria/Romania from (in the UK) currently apply to Croatia (in the UK) Free movement applies to whole EEA: Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein as well as EU itself Also applies to Switzerland So current UK immigration rules cover the EEA + Switzerland Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 22

23 Free movement will it end? Would still apply if the UK remains in the single market (e.g. like Norway, through the EEA) But there might be scope for an emergency brake Would probably still apply if there was a series of trade agreements with the EU (like Switzerland has) Could end if the UK seeks an association agreement with the EU that covers only trade/customs arrangements (like Turkey) Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 23

24 Free movement what would replace it? A points system like in Australia seems to be ruled out driven by demand from migrants Work permits as apply to non-eu nationals at present driven by demand from businesses Would only cover skilled workers would there be provision for low-skilled workers in businesses like farming and food processing? Migration would fall but not dramatically? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 24

25 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us How might Brexit affect migration to the UK from the rest of the world?

26 Pattern of non-eu migration to stay the same? Studying and family reasons already affected by tight restrictions, may not be made tighter? Work entry from outside the EU depends on permits likely to continue Asylum/refugees numbers low but may grow further? will look at this in more detail Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 26

27 Asylum accounts for only a small % of net migration Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 27

28 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us But could we reach Breaking point? UKIP poster was highly misleading UK has largely opted out of EU asylum policies Overall refugee organisations are more concerned about a general shift of sympathy away from helping asylum seekers and refugees

29 How can asylum seekers enter the UK? Via official resettlement schemes not related to EU quotas Ask for asylum within the UK having entered legally (e.g. as a visitor) Try to enter the UK illegally to seek asylum Why? - because Syrians (or other people we think of as refugees ) can t ask for asylum until they get to the UK Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 29

30 How does resettlement work? People are accepted direct from camps Schemes are very selective and work very slowly Britain has so far only resettled 2,000 out of a promised 20,000 Syrian refugees Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 30

31 Where are Syrian refugees going in the UK? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 31

32 A Calais camp in Dover? Britain refuses to set up an asylum processing centre in France But might the border agreement with France be a victim of Brexit? The UK border would then be in Dover (etc.) Would that bring a Calais camp to the UK? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 32

33 Theresa May s principles for refugee policy (Sept 2016) A first safe country. Refugees should claim asylum in the first safe country they reach, recognising that the current trend of onward movement benefits criminal gangs, exposes people to danger and reduces the prospects of ever returning home to their countries. Better distinction between refugees and economic migrants failure to do so only more people to undertake dangerous journeys. The right of all countries to control their borders and the responsibility to manage borders to reduce onward flows of illegal and uncontrolled migration. Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 33

34 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us How might Brexit affect housing demand and housing allocations?

35 New migrants are overwhelmingly in the private rented sector New migrants (those here under 5 years) most likely to be in the private rented sector (75%) Less than 10% of new social lettings are to non-uk nationals Foreign-born population has fewer homeowners (46%) Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us

36 Change in tenure over time Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us

37 Uncertain effects on private renting market Rapid growth of PRS now 4m households, only 2m in 2000 Sector being reshaped by other changes such as LHA migration effect is uncertain If Brexit affects house purchase, it could drive more people into renting So rents might continue to increase even if incomes stagnate especially if landlords also reluctant to invest Conclusion watch this space Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 37

38 EU migrants and social housing EU nationals who come to work are generally eligible In housing, this means they can claim HB and get a housing allocation or homelessness help Family members are eligible too But for jobseekers and unemployed people the rules are more complex and they can lose eligibility Hence 47% of London rough sleepers are other EU states EU nationals make limited use of social housing New migrants overwhelmingly use the PRS Overall, 15.9% of EU nationals are in social housing compared with 17% of UK nationals But only 4% of new lettings each year go to EU nationals Conclusion EU migration has little effect on social housing Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 38

39 What about eligibility for housing after Brexit? Almost certainly, new EU workers would have some form of limited leave So would not have access to benefits/housing unless they can eventually get indefinite leave EU family members would have to meet same tests (e.g. income) as non-eu Different rules might apply to EU nationals here before Brexit EU nationals would be subject to right to rent document checks Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 39

40 Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us What is the timetable and how can I keep up to date?

41 What s the timetable? Develop a Brexit offer by end of 2016 Test in parliament? Test with the public? Invoke Article 50 in 2017? Leave EU as late as 2020? Negotiate new trade and other deals (inc. immigration) Repeal European Communities Act Write new rules on immigration, benefits and housing allocations So, no change for 3-4 years at least? Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 41

42 What are the obstacles? No clarity yet on what Brexit means An immigration deal will be complex e.g. if Poland gives up migration rights to the UK, what will the UK have to give up? New rules on immigration, benefits and housing eligibility are complex and civil servants time will be limited And they will be different for Scotland Risk of delays and of rules not being properly drafted, then having to be challenged via court cases Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 42

43 Some resources to help What you need to know about Brexit: how_it_might_affect_migration UK guide to Housing and Migration - issues and solutions produced by the Housing and Migration Network es_and_solutions Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us 43

44 Do you have housing applicants who are new arrivals in the UK? Do you know their housing entitlements? How will you keep up to date after Brexit? Get accurate guidance for you and your staff. Visit Learn with us. Improve with us. Influence with us