An overview of irregular migration trends in Europe

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1 <Security Classification> CONTEMPORARY REALITIES AND DYNAMICS OF MIGRATION IN ITALY Migration Policy Centre, Florence 13 April 2018 An overview of irregular migration trends in Europe Jon Simmons Deputy Director for Migration and Border Analysis, UK Home Office A & I Directorate Informing Decisions Through Evidence

2 Europe in 2015

3 Europe now. Detections of irregular arrivals have fallen significantly since the 2015 crisis Eastern Mediterranean Asylum applications - lag behind arrivals Central Mediterranean Western Balkans Western Mediterranean Source: Detections: Frontex; Asylum claims: Eurostat Note: EU+ includes EEA + Switzerland; Frontex data on the Balkan route records detections of nationals from the Balkans as well as double counting some nationals who have arrived through Greece

4 Since the end of crisis the central Mediterranean route re-emerged as one of the significant challenges for EU border. Italy was the main point of arrival in 2017, however arrivals fell 34% from 181,000 arrivals in 2016 to 119,000 in Sea arrivals in Greece fell from 173,000 in 2016 to just 30,000 in 2017; numbers on Balkan route fell from 130,000 in 2016 to 12,000 in Land and sea arrivals to Spain through the western Mediterranean route rose from 14,000 in 2016 to 28,000 in Source: Frontex

5 Deaths of migrants in the Mediterranean still of great concern although numbers have fallen. The Central Mediterranean route remains by far the most dangerous with over 90% of identified deaths in % of arrivals in Italy reported experiencing some form of trafficking, exploitation or abuse along the route (compared to 10% along the Eastern Mediterranean route) (IOM 2017) Deaths of migrants in the Mediterranean Deaths of migrants by route Central Eastern Western Source IOM Missing Migrants project (data at 01 March 2018)

6 Asylum applications in the EU+ were down 44% in the year ending December 2017 Asylum applications to the top destinations in the EU+ in 2017, as a percentage of the EU+ total Asylum applications in the EU+ in the year ending December 2016 and 2017 Germany Italy France Greece UK Spain Sweden Austria YE December YE December Average Country % change Grant rate Total (EU+) 1,293, , Germany 1 (1) 745, , Italy 2 (2) 122, , France 3 (3) 84,265 98, Greece 4 (4) 51,105 58, UK 5 (6) 39,845 33, Spain 6 (13) 15,760 30, Sweden 7 (8) 28,850 26, Austria 8 (5) 42,285 24, Other , Source: Eurostat Note + includes the EEA + Switzerland; Data may be subject to revisions Asylum applications to northern member states such as Germany (-70), and Austria (-43%) have reduced significantly. There were increases in Spain (up 95%) and France (up 17%) as well as Greece (15%) and Italy (5%). Grant rates quoted (at initial decision) will vary due to the mix of countries of origin of people applying for asylum in different EU countries as well as differences in policy. Additional numbers will be granted following appeal.

7 Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans remain the most common nationalities claiming asylum however numbers have substantially reduced Asylum applications to the EU+ in 2017 from the top nationalities, as a percentage of the EU+ total Syria Iraq Afghanistan Nigeria Pakistan Eritrea Albania Bangladesh Guinea Iran Source: Eurostat; EU+ includes the EEA+ Switzerland Data may be subject to revisions Top nationalities for Asylum applications to the EU+ in the Year ending December 2016 and 2017 Country of citizenship YE December 2016 YE December 2017 % change Grant rate % Total (EU+) 1,437, , Syria 1 (1) 341, , Iraq 2(3) 131,700 51, Afghanistan 3 (2) 190,250 48, Nigeria 4 (5) 48,945 41, Pakistan 5 (4) 50,130 31, Eritrea 6 (7) 40,240 28, Albania 7 (8) 32,990 25, Bangladesh 8 (12) 17,280 20, Guinea 9 (14) 14, , Iran 10 (6) 42,110 18, Other 382, , Asylum applications from nationalities that arrive through the Eastern Mediterranean route to Greece have reduced. In contrast to most nationalities there was an increase in applications from Bangladesh and Guinea nationals in 2017.

8 Sea arrivals to Italy in 2017 sharp decrease in arrivals in the second half of the year. This route usually sees a summer peak, however in summer 2017 arrivals decreased. Western Mediterranea n Western Balkans Eastern Mediterranea n Central Mediterranean Sea arrivals to Italy (Countries supplying more than 1000 arrivals are highlighted) Arrivals Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total GoogleMaps EuroGraphics ,777 51,445 61,821 49, , ,292 59,460 21,666 13, ,247

9 The origins of migrants arriving in Italy Western Africa and Bangladesh nationals were the top arrivals, some having been working in Libya prior to departing for Italy. Nigerians were the top nationality with 18,000 arrivals. Source: The 23 rd Italian Report on Migrations (ISMU, 2017)

10 Some initial reflections on the situation in Italy The most recent European migration crisis has come to an end but the tragedy of the central Mediterranean crossing predates the 2015 crisis, and continued after the crisis had ended Most of the migrants on this route are now of African origin, not from Syria or central Asia or the Middle-East and many may have been working in North Africa outside of their home country before crossing into Europe For a variety of reasons, there are signs that numbers crossing the central Mediterranean since summer 2017 have fallen significantly Apart from search and rescue, the other key issues now are reception capacity and conditions for arrivals, case processing capacity for those who apply for asylum and secondary movements or irregular stays of those who do not as well as the continuing need to support security and better governance in North Africa, and in particular Libya

11 Prime Minister Theresa May s three priorities speech at the Leaders Summit on Refugees, 20 Sept 2016 (New York) FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE We need to increase our financial assistance for refugees. Less than half of this year s UN Global Appeal has been met. As the world s second largest bilateral humanitarian donor, the UK has played a leading role in helping to meet this huge need. HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE Second, we need a more enduring response. We must ensure refugees can live with dignity and self-sufficiency, as close as possible to their home countries to deter them from making dangerous onward journeys, and to enable them eventually to return home and rebuild. RESETTLEMENT Finally, we need to ensure that the most vulnerable refugees are supported and, if necessary, resettled where their needs can best be met. The UK has committed to resettling 20,000 of the most vulnerable, including children affected by the Syria crisis.

12 Humanitarian Aid The figures below show the aid provided by EU member states to support Syrian nationals. Aid is directed to support Syrians both inside Syria and those refugees in other countries in the region. As the vast majority of Syrians in Turkey live outside of the organised refugee camps, a majority of aid also goes to support Syrians in these situations.

13 Resettlement These are the numbers for the resettlement schemes operated by EU member states in relation to Syrian nationals. Syrians are by far the nationality receiving the largest amount of resettlement support at present (in 2016, 11,200 of the total of 14,695 beneficiaries of resettlement were Syrians. Over the period , almost half (47%) of the total of 38,700 resettled persons across the EU were Syrian, with the next largest group being from the Congo (just under 10%).

14 Prime Minister May to Italian PM Gentiloni - London 9 Feb 2017 SOLIDARITY Theresa May: We will continue to work together in tackling the migration crisis in the Mediterranean. Italy has become the main arrival point for illegal migration into Europe, with over 180,000 people arriving in But this is not just a problem for Italy, it is a problem for us all. We need to work together to find better solutions to the huge population movements we are seeing, so refugees don t have to risk their lives on dangerous journeys and so we control unmanageable economic migration <Security Classification>

15 Relocations The EU relocation mechanism put in place in September 2015 as a temporary and exceptional mechanism aimed to relocate up to 160,000 applicants in clear need of international protection from Greece and Italy over two years (to September 2017). However, following the EU-Turkey statement which reduced the flows to Greece by 96% and because the majority of migrants arriving to Italy were not eligible for relocation the total number of persons to be relocated was reduced to around 98,000. As of November 2017, according to the European Commission, the number of relocations from Greece stood at 21,238 and Italy at 10,265, a total of 31,500 persons (or 32% of the target figure).

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