MONTHLY ELECTION GUIDE: POLITICAL RISK MONTHLY ELECTION GUIDE. Contact: +44 ( 0 )

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1 MONTHLY ELECTION GUIDE

2 NOVEMBER 2017 Former-football player George Weah and Joseph Boakai go head-to-head in the second round of the Liberian presidential elections on 07 November. The first round of this election and inter-vote periods Liberia 7/11 MEDIUM have largely been trouble and violence-free. During the last election in 2011, there were some clashes between police and opposition groups between the first and second rounds of the vote; two were killed by police. The transparency of the second-round in 2011 was largely praised, and no significant unrest was reported after it had taken place. Falkland Islands 9/11 LOW All eight members of the Falkland Island s Assembly will be elected from two constituencies. There is the potential for unrest but not in the Falklands/Malvinas Islands. If any protests occur, they are likely to take place, outside the British Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Equatorial Guinea 12/11 MEDIUM Equatorial Guinea will vote for a new Chamber of Deputies and Senate in this election. The ruling Democratic Party maintains a tight grip over the electoral system, winning all but one seat in both houses in the 2013 vote. There has been some unrest this year in the country with certain incidents turning violent. There is a realistic possibility that unrest will flare up again after this vote. Slovenia s president is elected via a two-round system, with the second round to be held on 12 Slovenia 12/11 LOW November. The run-off vote will be held between Borut Pahor and Marjan Sarec. Present polling suggests that incumbent president Borut Pahor will be re-elected for a second term. The role of president in Slovenia is largely ceremonial.

3 NOVEMBER 2017 After some delays, due to a number of reasons, presidential elections in the self-governing but not internationally recognised region of Somaliland are due to take place on 13 November. The handover of Somaliland 13/11 and MEDIUM power was peaceful in 2010, however, there remains the potential for violence. Al Shabab is active in the region (though Somaliland have been spared much of the violence) and Somaliland and Puntland forces have clashed as recently as 2016; there is the potential for further clashes over disputed territory. 19 of the 26 seats of the Assembly are up for election. The vote was called for after the King dissolved parliament in August. The Prime Minister had been accused of seeking to limit the power of the Tongan monarchy; Tonga operates a feudal-like system of government. In 2006, democracy Tonga 16/11 HIGH advocates rioted in the Tongan capital Nuku alofa, upset with the slow pace of reform. Reports suggested that up to 80 per cent of businesses were destroyed in the unrest, with several deaths reported. Forces from New Zealand and Australia were deployed to restore peace. No significant unrest was reported after the 2014 vote. Chileans will vote for their president (in a potential two-round system), 23 of the 43 members of the Chile 19/11 and MEDIUM Senate, all 155 members of the Chamber of deputies, and the full 278 members serving on regional boards. Those elected will begin their terms on 11 March Chile is an active democracy and protests are common. Between , thousands protested for education reform. Several hundred protestors and more than 500 police officers were injured in the unrest and one student protestor was killed.

4 NOVEMBER 2017 The Honduras election will include a vote for the next president, 128 members of the National Congress, 298 mayors, and 20 representatives of the Central American Parliament. The previous Honduras 26/11 and HIGH election saw both major candidates claim victory, however, there was no significant cases of violence. Despite this, violence is common in Honduras with criminal gangs particularly prevalent. There is the potential for significant unrest before and after the vote. Nepal s House of Representatives will be elected in two phases, on 26 November and 7 December. 165 representatives will be elected by a first-past-the-post voting system and 110 by a closed list Nepal 26/11 MEDIUM proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. Election results are regularly called into question. During election periods, there are frequent border closures and enhanced security. Unrest is possible during any election period.

5 DECEMBER 2017 Nepal 7/12 MEDIUM The second round of the House of Representative elections. For more, see above entry for 26 November.

6 JANUARY 2018 A presidential election will be held on the 12 and 13 January 2018 with a second phase occurring on the Czech Republic 12-13/01 LOW 26 and 27 January 2018 if required. The incumbent president Miloš Zeman is standing for re-election. Jiří Drahoš and Michal Horáček are considered his main rivals. Candidates must gather 50,000 signatures from citizens or the support of 20 Deputies or 10 Senators. Whilst protests may occur they are unlikely to be violent in nature. Czech Republic 26-27/01 LOW The second round of the presidential elections (but may not be required). See 12 January for further details. elections are scheduled to be held in Finland on the 28 January A second phase may Finland 28/01 LOW occur on 11 February 2018 if necessary. The President of Finland does not hold large executive powers. While protests may occur during and after vote, they are unlikely to be violent elections for the Greek half of Cyprus are scheduled to be held on the 28 January The president will be elected using the two-round system if no candidate gets a majority in the first vote. Cyprus 28/01 LOW Cyprus has been politically divided since the Turkish invasion of 1974, with a UN peacekeeping mission in place. It is unclear how the vote will impact ongoing negotiations between the Greek and Turkish halves of Cyprus. Previous elections have remained peaceful but some protests are possible.

7 FEBRUARY 2018 Costa Rica 04/02 and LOW Elections are scheduled for the 04 February. In this election, both the President and Assembly will be elected. candidates must receive 40 per cent of the vote to win the first round. If no candidate wins, then a runoff will be held. Protests are possible but are unlikely to turn violent. Finland 11/02 LOW Possible second round of the presidential elections. See 28 January for further details. Despite deep divisions throughout Libya, elections are due to be held in February Power is currently split between the UN-recognised government of Fayez al-sarraj in Tripoli and military Libya February and HIGH strongmen in eastern Libya, General Haftar (as well as Islamist militants and armed mercenaries). The election season is likely to bring clashes between rival armed groups, terror attacks, and violent unrest, if the election actually goes ahead.

8 MARCH 2018 Pakistani Senate elections are due to be held on 5 March. Due to ongoing corruption issues regarding Pakistan 05/03 MEDIUM the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, it is possible that the vote will be greeted by some unrest. However, the Senate is seen as the less influential house of Pakistan s legislative branch, and the vote is widely seen as less important. The presidential elections are to be held on the 7 March The presidential vote will go to a second round if no candidate gains a majority of the vote. The 112 elected members of Parliament are elected Sierra Leone 07/03 and HIGH from single member constituencies. The remaining seats are reserved for Paramount Chiefs who are elected indirectly. President Koroma is argued to have created unnecessary political tension and uncertainty in the country for his choice to delay the election date announcement. This may cause there to be some violent unrest in the build up to, and after, the vote. Significant violent unrest was not reported during the 2012 election period but clashes were reported during the 2007 campaign, especially in Freetown. Colombian parliamentary elections are to be held on the 11 March members of the Senate and 166 members of the House of Representatives will be elected. This will mark the first election in Colombia 11/03 MEDIUM which the former rebel group, FARC, are due to participate; the peace deal with FARC has been divisive. Another rebel group, the ELN, remain active in Colombia despite peace overtures from the government. It is possible that violent unrest will occur in this election period.

9 MARCH 2018 The presidential elections are to be held on the 18 March There could be a run-off vote if no candidate gains more than 50 per cent of the vote. It is unclear if President Putin will stand for another Russia 18/03 HIGH term but a number of opposition figures, including Alexei Navalny, have been constitutionally barred. Thousands marched when the election results were announced in 2012, with further protests on Putin s inauguration day. Should protests occur, they are likely to be met by a show of force by Russian authorities, with arrests and violence likely.

10 APRIL 2018 Fijians are due to vote for a new parliament in 2018, with the likely date between April and Fiji April (Predicted) MEDIUM November 2018; the date has not yet been set. Fiji has suffered from a series of coups and coup attempts in its recent past. The previous election went off without significant issues and was judged to be credible by international observers. Opponents did contest the validity of the election, however. It is possible that there will be unrest after this election too, with violence also possible. Paraguay 22/04, legislative, and local MEDIUM Paraguayans are due to elect a new president, legislature, and local representatives. Incumbent President Horacio Cartes has announced he will not run again. There has been known to be political violence conducted against members of the press. This is due to a close relationship between politicians and organised crime. Observers judged the 2013 election to be fair. Faroe Islands 25/04 Referendum LOW The Danish territory of the Faroe Islands will vote in a referendum on self-determination. This is unlikely to cause unrest.

11 MAY 2018 This will mark the first presidential election in which the former rebel group, FARC, are due to Colombia 27/05 MEDIUM participate; the peace deal with FARC has been divisive. Another rebel group, the ELN, remain active in Colombia despite peace overtures from the government. It is possible that violent unrest will occur in this election period but a lot may depend on the legislative election earlier in the elections were due to be held in 2014, but due to a constitutional crisis with parliament Lebanon May (Predicted) HIGH not choosing a president, elections have been delayed until Elections are predicted to occur in May but this is not a guarantee. The political system has historically been unstable and looks set to continue. Religious and ethnic traditions also influence the political system. There is the potential for unrest or terror incidents, especially given Lebanese-Syrian history and their proximity.

12 JULY 2018 The Mexican and Congressional elections are due to be held on 1 July. A new president, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and 128 members of the Senate are due to be elected. President Nieto is deeply unpopular but is unable to stand for re-election. The vote may Mexico 01/07 and MEDIUM be impacted by US-Mexico relations, which remain difficult. After the vote in 2012, there was widespread civil unrest and claims of electoral fraud. While there were not any reports of violence initially, Federal Police and protestors clashed as President Nieto was being sworn in. More than 90 protestors were arrested in Mexico City and several injuries were reported. Elections for the House of the People were due to be held on 15 October 2016 but were subsequently delayed by a year and a half. The delay has been attributed to a power-sharing deal reached between President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah after the 2014 presidential election. Since the parliamentary elections in 2010, militant groups have Afghanistan 07/07 HIGH grown stronger with Islamic State, a new actor, also engaging in terror acts in Afghanistan. Violence is likely in the election period with terror groups likely to target polling stations, officials, candidates, and voters three candidates were killed campaigning in The vote is not expected to be free and fair, with protests likely in the aftermath. These often turn violent or are targeted by militants.

13 JULY 2018 South Sudan 09/07, legislative, gubernatorial, and local HIGH South Sudan is set to go to the polls by 09 July South Sudan has been beset by violence since independence in The country remains incredibly unstable. The planned election, if it does occur in 2018, is likely to bring ethnic strife and the potential for high levels of violence. The UN has already expressed concerns that the election next year risks deepening and extending an already devastating civil war. A sixth National Assembly is due to be elected on 29 July. The past few years has seen the repression of the opposition by Prime Minister Hun Sen. Opposition leader Sam Rainsy has been barred from running in 2018 while his deputy has been charged with treason. The government also closed down the Cambodia Daily newspaper, which was critical of the government. There was Cambodia 29/07 HIGH widespread national unrest in with electoral fraud and political corruption the primary reasons for demonstrations. As many as 500,000 are believed to have taken part in the protests. It has been estimated that dozens were wounded in the unrest and four people were killed. It is unclear if unrest will occur in 2018, especially given that Hun Sen s opposition has been decimated in recent years, limiting their ability to organise.

14 SEPTEMBER 2018 Elections for Sweden s national law-making assembly, the Riksdag, must be held on or before 09 September. All 349 seats need to be filled, with Sweden electing its members of parliament via a Sweden 09/09 LOW proportional representation method. Coalition governments are usually needed to be formed after the election and this can take some time. Protests may occur after the vote but are unlikely to be violent.

15 OCTOBER 2018 Elections for the Latvian parliament must be held before 06 October The 100 members of Latvia 06/10 LOW the Saeima are elected by open list proportional representation from five multi-member constituencies. Coalition governments are often formed after elections. In this election, Brazilians will vote for the President and Vice President, the National Congress, state Governors and Vice Governors and state Assemblies. The election for president, is undertaken on a two-round system unless a candidate gains more than 50 per cent in the first Brazil 07/10 legislative, gubernatorial, HIGH round. Since the last election, in 2014, Brazil has been beset by civil unrest and corruption claims, losing the elected President Dilma Rousseff due to impeachment. Her vice president and and state successor, Michael Temer, has also had to fight against corruption claims. Violence has been common on the streets of Brazil s largest cities as protestors rally against economic, political, and corruption issues. Incumbent Ilham Aliyev maintains a tight grip over power and is expected to maintain his position Azerbaijan 17/10 MEDIUM after this election. Elections in 2013 were not considered to be fair. Observers noted activist and journalist intimidation. If protests do occur before or after the vote, they are likely to face a heavyhanded response from security forces

16 OCTOBER 2018 Brazil 28/10 HIGH Second round of the presidential election. For more, see above entry for 07 October.