Self-Containment Achieving Peace in Anarchic Settings PETROS G. SEKERIS, ANTONIS ADAM

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1 14 th JAN TINBERGEN EUROPEAN PEACE SCIENCE CONFERENCE List of Papers Accepted 23 June 25 June 2014, the Hague at the International Institute of Social Studies Self-Containment Achieving Peace in Anarchic Settings PETROS G. SEKERIS, ANTONIS ADAM Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa HALVARD BUHAUG, TOR A. BENAMINSEN, ESPEN SJAASTAD, OLE MAGNUS THEISEN Terrorism and Civil War KRISTIAN SKREDE GLEDITSCH, SARA POLO Conflict and Deforestation in the DRC ANJA SHORTLAND, MATTHIAS BAUMANN, SARAH WALKER, TOBIAS KUEMMERLE, VAN BUTSIC Local Diffusion of Eco-conflicts and the Mediating Effects of Government Public Goods Provisions THEODORA-ISMENE GIZELIS, XUN CAO, ANJA SHORTLAND, HENRIK URDAL The Economic Costs of Civil War and the Role of Ethnic Heterogeneity STEFANO COSTALLI, LUIGI MORETTI, COSTANTINO PISCHEDDA The environmental impact of civil conflict The deforestation effect of paramilitary expansion in Colombia LEOPOLDO FERGUSSON, DARIO ROMERO, JUAN F. VARGAS

2 Why Won't You Do What I Want? Influencing itarian Regimes Through Economic Sanctions T. CLIFTON MORGAN, JESSICA WEEK Imagine There's No MIDs Disaggregating Interstate Conflict GLENN PALMER, MICHAEL KENWICK, MATTHEW LANE Going Down South? Estimating Firearms Trafficking from the US to Mexico NEIL T. N. FERGUSON, MAREN M. MICHAELSEN Food prices and the incidence of violence in Africa, STIJN VAN WEEZEL The Long-Run Effects of Violence on Human Capital Evidence from La Violencia in Colombia JUAN FELIPE RIANO, ANA MARIA IBANEZ, LEOPOLDO FERGUSSON Barriers to Communication? Culture, Language, and International Mediation ZORZETA BAKAKI, TOBIAS BÖHMELT, VINCENZO BOVE Climate Change and Conflict Another Look PATRICK REGAN, KATE BOEHLEFELD Military Spending, Budget Deficits and Financial Crises RAUL CARUSO, ROBERTO RICCIUTI Apples and Oranges? Actor Profiles and The Choice of Violent and Non-Violent Tactics MARIANNE DAHL, SCOTT GATES, KRISTIAN SKREDE GLEDITSCH, BELEN GONZALES Immigration in Democracies Enfranchisement versus Conflict SANTIAGO SANCHEZ-PAGES, ANGEL SOLANO GARCÌA The diffusion of Atrocities a spatial analysis on the role of refugees ROOS VAN DER HAER, VALENTIN GOLD

3 Spatial spill-over and neighbouring effects of natural resources location on civil conflict dynamics in West Africa SARA BALESTRI, MARIO A. MAGGIONI Forced displacement in Colombia What determines expulsion and reception in municipalities? PAOLA PALACIOS, XIMENA DUENAS, BLANCA ZULUAGA A model of communist repression MARIO FERRERO Measuring excess mortality and its distribution during the conflict in Guatemala DAMIEN DE WALQUE War and Child Labour Evidence from Angola WOLFGANG STOJETZ The Spatial and Temporal Clustering of International Mediation TOBIAS BÖHMELT Civil War under Democracy ANA ARJONA, MARIO CHACON Cleavage Dynamics in Civil War RAVINDER BHAVNANI, KARSTEN DONNAY Diversity in U.N. Peacekeeping Missions and Civilian Protection ANDREA RUGGERI, VINCENZO BOVE Dissatisfied States ERIK GARTZKE Blue Helmets Made in China. China s Contribution to UN Peacekeeping Operations ANDREA RUGGERI, JULIA BADER Preferences and Exposure to Shocks Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Palestine ELISA CAVATORTA, BEN GROOM

4 Street-level Autocrats Micromotives of Regime Change and Continuity HǺVARD MOKLEIV NYGǺRD, MARIANNE DAHL, SCOTT GATES The Legacy of Medieval English Ethnic Diversity and Ethnic Violence DAVID FIELDING Firms in Conflict the Effect of the Second Intifada on Technology and Product Value in Palestine MICHELE DI MAIO, FRANCESCO AMODIO A contest success function for networks ALBERTO VESPERONI, IREM BOZBAY Economic Growth and Recovery after Civil Wars PRAKARSH SINGH, LUIS A. GIL-ALANA The Role of the Military in Democratization and Democratic Reversals DOUGLAS M. GIBLER Get Off My Lawn Civil Wars and Subsequent Social Intolerance in the Public JAROSLAV TIR, SHANE SINGH How Much Terror? Dissidents, Governments, Institutions and the Cross-National Study of Terror Attacks WILL H. MOORE, RYAN BAKKER, DANIEL W. HILL, Jr. Aiding Victims or Abetting Violence? A Disaggregated Examination of Aid and Insurgent Violence REED M. WOOD, EMILY MOLFINO Peace from the Past Pre-colonial Political Institutions and Civil Wars in Africa TORE WIG Experienced Poverty and Internal Armed Conflict ANDREAS FORO TOLLEFSEN

5 On the Dynamics of Civil Conflict ARZU KIBRIS, OZGUR KIBRIS The Effects of Gang Truces on Mortality Rates A Synthetic Control Approach to Evidence from Mexico TOPHER L. MCDOUGAL, ROBERT MUGGAH, AMI C. CARPENTER Ethnic Policy and Social unrest A Synthetic Control Study of African Groups LIVIA I. SCHUBIGER, SEBASTIAN SCHUTTE Inequality and Democratization Reconsidering the Economic View MICHAEL DORSCH Explaining the Relationship between External Threats and Coups Rally-around-the-flag or Credible Commitments? CEMAL EREN ARBATLI School's out- the war on drugs and educational performance in Mexico MAREN M. MICHAELSEN, PAOLA SALARDI Could we have predicted the Arab Spring? UGURHAN G. BERKOK, ADUGNA OLANI Fighting for Territory The Determinants of Territorial Control by Rebel Groups LUIS DE LA CALLE Uneven resource distribution under the threat of separatist conflict theory and experiment [Preliminary] KLARIZZE PUZON, MARC WILLINGER The Spatial Dimensions of State Building The Mechanisms of International Influence on Domestic Extractive Efforts CAMERON G. THIES, MARK DAVID NIEMAN,OLGA CHYZH Children are the future? The effect of child soldiers in conflict termination and duration of peace KAISA HINKKAINEN, ZORZETA BAKAKI

6 Religious Minorities and High Risk Mobilization The Collective Rescue of Jews in the Netherlands during the Holocaust ROBERT BRAUN Changes in Public Opinion and the Occurrence of International Terrorism DRAGANA STANISIC, JITKA MALECKOVA The impact of returning on home on social capital A case study from Northern Lebanon ALIA AGHAJANIAN Long Term Effect of Battle Shock on Health and Wealth Outcomes in China JIAN LI Are Anocracies More Likely to Experience Civil War? PUI-HANG WONG, LUTZ F. KREBS Coming to Terms with the End of the Democratic Peace MICHAEL MOUSSEAU, DEMET MOUSSEAU Microdisarmament and Compliance Costs A Game-theoretic Analysis of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Programs TATJANA STANKOVIC An Economic Theory of Bargaining and Fighting with Endogenous Destruction ZIJUN LUO, YANG-MING CHANG Conflict and Livelihood Decisions in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh MUHAMMAD BADIUZZAMAN, SYED MANSOOB MURSHED A Dangerous Discrepancy Testing the microdynamics of horizontal inequality on Palestinian support for armed resistance SOLVEIG HILLESUND Trust Us International Technical Assistance, Institutions, and Post-Election Violence INKEN VON BORZYSKOWSKI

7 Population Distribution and the Duration of Ethnic Conflicts MATIJA KOVACIC Terrorism and spillover effects on tourism between Lebanon, Israel and Turkey CHARBEL BASSIL Elite Networks, Foreign Policy Decision-Making and Conflict RENATO CORBETTA Global Contexts of Civil War Neighborhood Violence, Democratic Community, and Contagion KELLY M. KADERA, RACHEL MYRICK, LINDSAY REID, MARK J.C. CRESCENZI Do People or Events Make the Difference? Evidence from Domestic Revolutions JEFF D. COLGAN, EDWARD LUCAS Difference-form group contests? MARIA CUBEL, SANTIAGO SANCHEZ-PAGES Is there a worldwide convergence in military expenditures? CHRISTOS KOLLIAS, PASCHALIS ARVANITIDIS, KONSTANTINOS ANASTASOPOULOS Effects of armed conflict and terrorism on allocation of foreign aid PIOTR LIS Power Relations, Transnational Ethnic Kin and International Crises SERAINA RÜEGGER Mass Indiscriminate Violence as a Process of Authoritarian Consolidation EELCO VAN DER MAAT Conflict, Economic Growth and Spatial Spillover Effects in Africa NAN TIAN, JOHN PAUL DUNNE On the factors and effects of armed conflict AINHOA VEGA-BAYO

8 Reconstruction and Insurgency The Importance of Sector in Afghanistan TRAVERS BARCLAY CHILD State Capacity, Inequality and Inter-group Violence in Sub- Saharan Africa IDA RUDOLFSEN Fighter jet diplomacy A model of the coercive use of air power with an application to Greece and Turkey ATHANASSIOS PITSOULISY, SOEREN C. SCHWUCHOW, MARTIN GASSEBNER Methodological Change in Economic Sanction Reconsidered and its Implications PETER A.G. VAN BERGEIJK, MUHAMMAD SHAHADAT HOSSAIN SIDDIQUEE Human Development Dynamics An Agent Based Simulation of Adaptive Heterogeneous Games and Social Systems ZINING YANG, MARK ABDOLLAHIAN, PATRICK dewerk NEAL Ending civil wars The role of amnesties LESLEY-ANN DANIELS Effect of external interventions in intra-state conflicts in Africa after the end of the Cold-War RICARDO SOUSA, MANSOOB MURSHED Military Expenditure and Investment in OECD Countries Revisited NA HOU, BO CHEN A Force Less Powerful Explaining the Near Absence of International Mediation in Nonviolent Conflicts ALLARD DUURSMA Maritime Piracy Socio-Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants MARGARETE REDLIN, THOMAS GRIES

9 Detecting casual relations in event data sets A Monte Carlo experiment RANAN D. KUPERMAN The program of the 14 th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference will be published soon.