2: THE WDR FRAMEWORK 3: NATIONAL SOLUTIONS 4: RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

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2 1: MODERN VIOLENCE 2: THE WDR FRAMEWORK 3: NATIONAL SOLUTIONS 4: RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

3 1: MODERN VIOLENCE

4 the end of the cold war

5 21 st century violence multiple forms conventional contests for state power (Afghanistan, Iraq) popular uprisings (post Cold War: : Eastern Europe, FSU, Middle East) atomized, localized disputes powered by resources, ethnicity, exclusion (Balkans, India, DRC) sometimes spilling across neighboring borders (Central Africa) international trafficking esp. drugs (Central America, West Africa, Eastern Europe) transnational ideological movements (Al Qaeda) which mutate and/or commingle, esp. political and criminal e.g. Balkans, Nepal, Afghanistan, Colombia, Central America, West Africa in inrepetitive cycles, and with second generation challenges 90% of civil wars in 2000s are in countries with civil wars in the past 30 years with disastrous consequences

6 prolonged conflict keeps countries poor a civil war costs a medium sized developing country the equivalent of 30 years of a civil war costs a medium sized developing country the equivalent of 30 years of GDP growth it takes 20 years for trade levels to return to pre war levels

7 MDG deficits

8 2: THE WDR FRAMEWORK

9 security, economic and political stresses economic stresses internal low incomes youth unemployment natural resource wealth severe corruption income inequality external economic shocks climate change natural disasters internal ethnic, religious or regional competition real orperceived discrimination human rights abuses political stresses external perceived global inequity and injustice in the treatment of different groups security stresses internal mistrust of other groups, security forces legacies of violence and trauma external invasion/occupation external support for domestic rebels cross border conflict spillovers transnational terrorism international criminal networks

10 varying forms of violence; similar stresses

11 why conflict occurs: citizens views

12 state society relations and institutions institutions: rules of the game and shared values, usually transacted through/enforced by populated organizations : not just state institutions both political and criminal violence correlate strongly with weak and/or predatory institutions legitimate institutions: technical capacity plus accountability and inclusion legitimatenational institutions are the key to reducing and managing the risk of violence

13 sustained fragility almost always leads to violence of the 40 countries that were fragile (CPIA<3.2) for five or more years between 1978and 1990, 17remained fragileinin 2009: and of those. 1 experienced no violence 16 remained fragile and experienced conflict (major or minor civil war) examples include Afghanistan, DRC, Sudan

14 on the other hand: countries that invest in institutions have often avoided violence f h h d of the 23 countries that escaped fragility between 1990 and

15 3: NATIONAL SOLUTIONS

16 virtuous cycles: the challenge of continuous prevention

17 coalitions, confidence, signals immediate signals participatory processes credible appointments transparency in expenditures budget allocations to priority groups redeployment /vetting of security forces removal of discriminatory policies commitment mechanisms independence of executing agencies independent monitoring dual key systems international execution of key functions realistic strategies national strategy: risk and priority assessments best fit approaches, realistic timeframes simple plans, simple progress measures (polling) 2 3 early results communicate!

18 transforming institutions citizen security access to justice and services jobs citizen protection; community policing i realistic objectives and communications vetting;security forces accountable to public independent judiciaries linked to security reforms; faster caseload processing; extending justice services phased anti corruption measures; social accountability mechanisms humanitarian delivery public financial management: directing funds to underserved/excluded groups dismantling criminal networks multi sectoral community empowerment programs (CDD etc.) community based/public bli employment programs macroeconomic policies to contain consumer price volatility and encourage labor intensive private employment political representation: local and national

19 .takes time years to threshold at pace of. ICRG indicators fastest 20 fastest ever bureaucratic quality corruption military in politics i govt effectiveness 36 13

20 4 RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE 4: RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

21 international support: shortcomings international efforts are often too slow too volatile too quick to exit too stove piped too focused on post conflict windows of opportunity 21

22 stop go aid undermines institution building

23 an unbalanced post conflict focus

24 international policy reform four tracks integrated support for citizen security, justice and jobs reforming internal agency procedures, risk management regional and global action to combat external stresses emerging countries, regional institutions

25 integrated support for citizen security, justice and jobs conflict risk management strategies aligned with national strategy: continuous prevention/conflict risk ikreduction prioritize institutions that can provide citizen security, address injustice and tackle unemployment expanded support for justice institutions (a UN lead?) a global partnership for jobs from Paris and Accra rhetoric to operational integration more attention to mediation COMBINED PROGRAMS

26 reforming internal agency procedures, risk management dual accountability and the risk ikof inaction speed: procurement, rapid disbursements, varying oversight mechanisms not funding flows staying power: long term commitment to institution building, resilience to (inevitable and often healthy) contests and setbacks, minimizing volatility in financing support interim measurement: since legitimacy is essential, poll the citizens who will be the judges

27 regional and global action to combat external stresses cross border development programming, shared administrative capacity follow themone money in illicit trafficking; joint developeddeveloping country investigations and prosecutions better standards for land purchase, resource extraction and revenue management (Kimberley, EITI ++) drugs: focus more on demand; the legalization debate

28 emerging countries, regional institutions renewed dialogue on international norms and expectations for responsible national leadership south south and north south exchanges: learning from practitioners, not copying technocratic ti best practice align international assistance with emerging country assistance, regional governance efforts (regional organizations may possess comparative political legitimacy)

29 2011 WDR 1.5 billion people live in countries affected by repeated cycles of political and criminal violence causing human trauma and disrupting development Strengthen the institutions that address citizen insecurity, injustice and unemployment and alleviate the international stresses that undermine them

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