University of Groningen. Dutch intelligence - towards a qualitative framework for analysis Valk, Guillaume Gustav de

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1 University of Groningen Dutch intelligence - towards a qualitative framework for analysis Valk, Guillaume Gustav de IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2005 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Valk, G. G. D. (2005). Dutch intelligence - towards a qualitative framework for analysis: with case tudies on the Shipping Research Bureau and the National Security Service (BVD) s.n. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date:

2 Dutch Intelligence Towards a Qualitative Framework for Analysis

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4 RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN Dutch Intelligence - Towards a Qualitative Framework for Analysis With Case Studies on The Shipping Research Bureau and the National Security Service (BVD) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Rechtsgeleerdheid aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, dr. F. Zwarts, in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 27 oktober 2005 om uur door Guillaume Gustav de Valk geboren op 4 maart 1961 te Rotterdam

5 Promotores: Prof. dr. M. Herweijer Prof. dr. A.B. Hoogenboom Beoordelingscommissie: Prof. mr. L.J.A. Damen Prof. dr. A.B. Ringeling Prof. dr. M.S. de Vries Dr. H.B. Winter ISBN:

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7 Acknowledgments While conducting research in the various archives and libraries, I benefited from the helpful advice and assistance of many librarians, curators, and archivists. I want to thank the staffs of the archives and libraries at the University of Groningen, the University of Amsterdam, the VU Amsterdam, Harvard University (USA), the National Archives (USA), the National Security Archives (USA), the Archive at the Dutch Foreign Ministry, the Archive at the Dutch Embassy in Pretoria (South Africa), the Archive at the Shipping Research Bureau, the Freedom of Information Act Department at the BVD/AIVD, and at a series of private archives of which material was sometimes handed over on the basis of anonymity. During my US-travel to visit archives and libraries I was glad to be able to stay with Ruud Janssens. Ruud Janssens and Andries Hoogerwerf were also helpful to stimulate my research when things were not going that straightforward. I especially want to thank those who read and commented on my writing. Richard Hengeveld read and criticized in detail all the chapters on the Shipping Research Bureau. Ad de Jonge, Dick Engelen, and Peter Keller read the chapters on the BVD and made valuable suggestions. Penny Lancaster corrected my English (the author is still responsible for the translation) and Ping Cleton translated Appendix 2. Henne Korff de Gidts offered additional comments. I want to thank Michiel Herweijer and Bob Hoogenboom, my academic advisors, who read and commented on the manuscript during its various stages. I would also like to thank Michiel Herweijer for his guidance throughout this project and the faith he expressed in it. I want to thank Jaap Hoogendam who was my employer for many years and who organized the work scheme in a way I could optimally carry out my research and travels. Finally, I want to express my gratitude to my wife Anke de Jong and my parents Guill de Valk and Ricki de Valk-Pillhofer who supported me financially and morally.

8 Table of Contents PART ONE INTELLIGENCE. POSITIONING AND EX ANTE INTSRUMENT Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Intelligence: concept, process, institution, and political context 2.1 Concept 2.2 Intelligence process Three models The input types of collection The output intelligence products 2.3 Organizational aspects Organization and quality Training and education 2.4 Political context Relation producer and consumer Intelligence and the legislative power Openness, secrecy, and quality 2.5 Conclusions and influence on the research question Chapter 3. Intelligence research 3.1 General characteristics and concepts of intelligence research 3.2. Three types of intelligence research Descriptive research to describe the essential characteristics of a situation Explanatory research to explain causes and conditions of a current development Prognostic research to forecast future developments Conclusion 3.3 Intelligence characteristics the perspective of intelligence and counter-intelligence 3.4 Conclusion

9 Chapter 4. Practitioners insights 4.1 Pitfalls and biases On bias Non-optimal and manipulative techniques Conclusion 4.2 Presentation and feedback Presentation Feedback/forum Conclusion 4.3 Conclusion Chapter 5. Criteria to assess quality 5.1 Criteria demands and specific indicators 5.2 Criteria and specific indicators 5.3 Criteria conclusion 5.4 Hypotheses summary PART TWO CASE STUDIES Chapter 6. The case of the Shipping Research Bureau 6.1 Reports investigated 6.2 Organization 6.3 Societal and political context of the reports What was meant by the oil embargo? The Dutch context: three networks The Shipping Research Bureau and its lobby Oil market 6.4 Case-selection and sources Chapter 7. SRB-reports and criteria 7.1 How to investigate the quality of which reports 7.2 Criteria and SRB-publications Criterion 1 design Criterion 2 different angles of investigation Criterion 3 to be correct, complete, and accurate Criterion 4 to be plausible and convincing Criterion 5 to be of relevance for the consumer Criterion 6 warning Conclusion

10 Chapter 8. Quality complementary elements 8.1 Quality of successive reports 8.2 Effects & impact, knowledge use, diffusion 8.3 Similar reports by other organizations 8.4 Conclusion Chapter 9. The case of the BVD (Binnenlandse Veiligheidsdienst) 9.1 The investigated survey 9.2 Organization 9.3 Societal context of the subjects in the survey 9.4 Case-selection and sources Chapter 10. BVD-survey and criteria 10.1 How to investigate the quality of the survey 10.2 Criteria and the BVD-survey Criterion 1 design Criterion 2 different angles of investigation Criterion 3 to be correct, complete, and accurate Criterion 4 to be plausible and convincing Criterion 5 to be of relevance for the consumer Criterion 6 warning Conclusion Chapter 11. Quality complementary elements 11.1 Issues reported on & successive surveys 11.2 Filing 11.3 Reports by others other BVD-reports On DSD Directorate B the hidden factor report Foreign Policy Staff 11.4 Conclusion PART THREE FACTORS OF INFLUENCE AND CONCLUSIONS Chapter 12. Factors influencing the quality of the SRB-reports 12.1 Forum, deception, and other factors Forum Deception Other factors 12.2 SRB and other organizations 12.3 Conclusion

11 Chapter 13. Factors influencing the quality of the BVD-survey 13.1 Forum, deception, and other factors Forum Deception Other factors 13.2 The BVD and other organizations 13.3 Conclusion Chapter 14. Conclusions To measure quality 14.2 Quality investigated reports 14.3 Factors and quality - primary and secondary processes 14.4 Recommendations 14.5 Discussions APPENDICES Appendix 1. Summary in Dutch/Samenvatting Appendix 2. Text BVD-Survey Works cited and sources consulted Index

12 List of Figures Figure 3.1 An amended analogy, as put forward by Ben-Israel 73 Figure 3.2 Angleton s Model of Soviet Strategic Deception 74 Figure 4.1 The Toulmin-model 98 Figure 9.1 Main structure of the BVD in the 1980 s 223 List of Tables Table 2.1 Locus and focus of intelligence studies: a comparison 10 Table 2.2 Intelligence studies as a discipline 11 Table 2.3 The intelligence matrix 16 Table 2.4 The effects of the disclosure of reports 45 Table 3.1 Types of intelligence research 55 Table 3.2 Observation 57 Table 3.3 Cooperation 58 Table 3.4 Document 58 Table 3.5 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 66 Table 5.1 The six criteria and their specific indicators 115 Table 6.1 Facts and dates in relation to SRB and its reports 139 Table 7.1 SRB-reports and -surveys investigated 144 Table 7.2 Sources: overview of the SRB intelligence method Table 7.3 Structure SRB-reports 183 Table : Ships that apparently delivered oil from Rotterdam to South Africa 191 Table 8.2 SRB-data submitted to Erasmus University 210 Table 9.1 Facts and dates in relation to issues in the BVD-survey 238 Table 10.1 Sources: what information on what groups of the survey 253 Table 10.2 The possibility of a security threat caused by a strategy of Van Steenis to infiltrate his ideas of Small Violence within MANE 255 Table 10.3 The revised evidence 1 (E1) 255 Table 10.4 Aspects and specific indicators: illustrations on criterion Table 10.5 Principles and concepts of Dodewaard Shuts Down and Small Violence 271 Table 10.6 Aspects and specific indicators: illustrations on criterion Table 11.1 Items in order of size 294 Table 14.1 Criteria met by the reports central in the case studies 365

13 List of Abbreviations ABC ACH ANC BAN BVD CDA CIA CPN D66 DSD ELINT Foc GALA HCSA HUMINT IDB IMINT IRA ITF KEMA LISA MANE MASINT MNAOA MUAA NATO NCW NEC NISA NPGSNE OAPEC OPEC OSINT PFLP PID PPR PSP PvdA Algemene Beveiligings Consultancy Analysis of Competing Hypotheses African National Congress Break Atomic Chain Netherlands (Breek Atoomketen Nederland) National Security Service (Binnenlandse Veiligheidsdienst) Christian Democratic Appeal (Christen Democratisch Appel) Central Intelligence Agency Dutch Communist Party (Communistische Partij Nederland) Democrats 1966 (Democraten 66) Dodewaard-Shuts-Down (Dodewaard-Gaat-Dicht) electronic intelligence flag of convenience General Administrative Law Act Holland Committee on Southern Africa (Komitee Zuidelijk Afrika). human intelligence Foreign Intelligence Service (Inlichtingendienst Buitenland) imagery intelligence Irish Republican Army International Workers Federation NV tot Keuring van Elektrotechnische Materialen Law on Intelligence and Security Agencies Movement Against Nuclear Energy measurement and signature intelligence Merchant Navy and Airline Officers Association Maritime Unions Against Apartheid North Atlantic Treaty Organization Netherlands Christian Employers (Nederlands Christelijk Werkgeversverbond) National Energy Committee (Landelijk Energie Komitee) Netherlands Intelligence Studies Association National Power Group Stop Nuclear Energy (Landelijke Stroomgroep Stop Kernenergie) Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries open source intelligence Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine Political/Local/Police Intelligence Agencies (Politieke/Plaatselijke/Politie Inlichtingendiensten) Radical Political Party (Politieke Partij Radicalen) Pacifist Socialist Party (Pacifistisch Socialistische Partij) Labor Party (Partij van de Arbeid)

14 RADINT RAF RARA RID SFF SIGINT SII SRB SWAPO TECHINT TELINT UCN UNCTAD UNGA UN IGG UNSC VNO WEU radar intelligence Red Army Fraction (Rote Armee Fraktion) Revolutionaire Anti-Racistische Actie Regional Intelligence Agencies (Regionale Inlichtingendiensten) Strategic Fuel Fund Association signals intelligence Studies in Intelligence (CIA) Shipping Research Bureau/the Bureau South-West Africa People s Organization technical intelligence telemetry intelligence Ultra-Centrifuge Nederland NV United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations General Assembly United Nations Intergovernmental Group to Monitor the Supply and Shipping of Oil and Petroleum Products to South Africa United Nations Security Council Federation of Netherlands Industry (Verbond van Nederlandse Ondernemingen) Western European Union