Cover Page. The handle holds various files of this Leiden University dissertation.

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1 Cover Page The handle holds various files of this Leiden University dissertation. Author: Alexandrova Petrova, Petya Title: Agenda setting in the European Council Issue Date:

2 Agenda Setting in the European Council Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van Doctor aan de Universiteit Leiden, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. mr. C.J.J.M. Stolker, volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties te verdedigen op donderdag 18 september 2014 klokke 11:15 uur door Petya Alexandrova Petrova geboren te Ruse (Bulgarije) in 1986

3 Promotiecommissie Promotor: Jouke de Vries Co-promotor: Arco Timmermans Overige leden: Frank Baumgartner (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) Sebastiaan Princen (University of Utrecht) François Foret (Free University Brussels)

4 To the memory of my grandmother Petra

5 ISBN: Printing: Off Page Layout and cover design: Petya Alexandrova Petya Alexandrova Petrova All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission from the author.

6 Contents Tables... x Figures... xi Acknowledgements... xii 1. Introduction Policy Punctuations and Issue Diversity on the European Council Agenda Explaining Political Attention Allocation with the Help of Issue Character: Evidence from the European Council National Interest versus the Common Good: The Presidency in European Council Agenda Setting Political Responsiveness in Multi-Level Systems: The case of the European Union Upsetting the Agenda: The Clout of Focusing Events in the European Council Conclusions References Annexes Samenvatting Curriculum Vitae v

7 Detailed Contents Tables... x Figures... xi Acknowledgements... xii 1. Introduction... 1 vi Agenda Setting and the EU... 3 Focus and Relevance of the Research Project... 4 Policy Issues and the European Council... 6 Nature and Composition of the Agenda... 6 Conditions for Agenda Formation... 8 Empirical Approach Overview of the Dissertation Contents Policy Punctuations and Issue Diversity on the European Council Agenda Abstract Introduction The European Council as a Policy Venue Punctuated Equilibrium and Agenda Dynamics in the European Council Data and Method Attention Allocation across Topics Distribution of Attention Change Agenda Concentration and Diversity Diversity and Issue Competition Conclusion Explaining Political Attention Allocation with the Help of Issue Character: Evidence from the European Council... 45

8 Abstract Introduction From Attribute Intrusion to Issue Character European Council Agenda Dynamics Data, Approach, and Methods Analysis of Issue Character Temporal Changes in Dimensionality Explaining Salience of Economic Issue Character Conclusion National Interest versus the Common Good: The Presidency in European Council Agenda Setting Abstract The European Council Presidency and Agenda Setting Institutional Properties of the European Council and its Presidency Two Rival Expectations about Presidency Agenda Setting Analysing Agenda Impact Testing for Institutional Advantage in Agenda Setting Reconsidering the Image of the Presidency Conclusion Appendixes Appendix 4.1. Timing of executive speeches and Presidencies Appendix 4.2. Matched policy agendas codes Political Responsiveness in Multi-Level Systems: The case of the European Union Abstract Introduction Political Responsiveness vii

9 viii The Case of the European Union EU Political Responsiveness? Analysis Design and Data Analysis Discussion Conclusion Upsetting the Agenda: The Clout of Focusing Events in the European Council Abstract Introduction Focusing Events and Agenda Setting The European Council as a Venue for Focusing Events The Logic of Reaction to Focusing Events Expectations for Responsiveness Data and Approach Attention to Focusing Events in the European Council Analysing the Agenda-Upsetting Effect Conclusion Conclusions Out of the Black Box: Main Findings Empirical Patterns and Lessons Theoretical Contributions Implications for Further Research The European Council as a Policy Venue Disentangling the EU Policy-Making Process Construction of Policy Agendas in Political Institutions References Annexes

10 Annex 1: The European Council in the EC/ EU Treaties Annex 2: European Council Meetings and Conclusions, Annex 3: Dataset of Policy-Content-Coded European Council Conclusions Samenvatting Curriculum Vitae ix

11 Tables Table 2.1. Aggregated attention to policy fields ( ) Table 2.2. Statistics on agenda change Table 2.3. Summary of expectations and results Table 3.1. Explaining variation in the economic character of the European Council agenda, Table 4.1. Summary descriptive statistics Table 4.2. Case study survey of national agenda effect of the Presidency and Pearson correlations of the European Council agenda and the national executive agenda of the presiding country Table 4.3. Fractional logit: predicting the European Council agenda by the national executive agendas and testing for Presidency effect Table 5.1. List of variables, data sources and descriptive statistics Table 5.2. Pooled time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) OLS regressions with fixed effects (for policy area) Table 5.3. Granger causality tests (half year lag) Table 5.4. Granger causality tests (half year lag), F 3 test statistic Table 5.5. Pooled time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) OLS regressions with fixed effects and clustered standard errors (for policy area) on a restricted dataset of four policy areas where Granger causality is found Table 6.1. Descriptive statistics Table 6.2. Logistic regression on focusing events on the agenda (presence vs. absence) Table 6.3. Marginal effects of fractional logit on attention to focusing events on the agenda (share of attention) x

12 Figures Figure 2.1. Relative distribution of attention to policy topics per year ( ) Figure 2.2. Distribution of percentage attention change Figure 2.3. Agenda entropy per year ( ) Figure 2.4. Entropy and proportion of attention to the three core topics Figure 3.1. Agenda-setting models for a single issue (A) and a whole agenda (B) Figure 3.2. Classical metric MDS on European Council Conclusions, Figure 3.3. Temporal changes in prominence of issue character of the European Council agenda Figure 3.4. Economic issue character (D2) on temporal windows for presidencies 21 (A) and 53 (B) Figure 5.1. European Council half-annual attention patterns to 11 policy areas ( ) Figure 5.2. Predictive margins for policy area with 95% confidence intervals for model Figure 6.1. Frequency of unique focusing events on the European Council agenda, xi

13 Acknowledgements When I applied for this PhD position I wrote in my motivation letter that for the last four years I had been diving in the deep and boundless sea of political science. Now it s been more than eight years and I feel I have learnt to swim in it and come to realise the immense diversity of flora and fauna with both its enchanting beauty and concealed dangers. It s been a unique experience in which being taught and teaching, learning and creating have gone hand in hand. The contents of this dissertation are only a part of the many topics and activities which captured my attention during my journey but they constitute the essence of this large project. Pursuing a PhD is not a lonely enterprise. During the last four years I had the luck and pleasure to meet wonderful people, who showed me what it means to be a good scholar. A number of colleagues have helped me develop my work by discussing ideas, providing comments to draft papers or assisting me with technical aspects of data management. In this respect I want to thank Amber Boydstun, Brendan Halpin, Bryan Jones, Caspar van den Berg, Christian Breunig, Christopher Green-Pedersen, Dimiter Toshkov, Emiliano Grossman, Frank Baumgartner, Gerard Breeman, Jale Tosun, Jeroen Candel, Leticia Elias, Markus Haverland, Sebastiaan Princen and Shaun Bevan as well as the anonymous reviewers of the already published articles. All of the chapters have been presented at a number of conferences, of which the annual meeting of the Comparative Agendas Project was particularly important as it provided an invaluable venue for discussing the politics of attention with like-minded researchers. A number of people deserve special mentions. Arco Timmermans was the supervisor many PhDs dream of he let me use all the freedom I desired but was always there for me when I needed his support. I would certainly miss the afternoons when we discussed new ideas even though many deadlines were knocking on the door. Anne Rasmussen taught me how to look beyond the limited empirical scope of a single study and seek to build strong theory. Working with her was not only enriching and xii

14 enjoyable; it offered me a role model example on research ethics. Marcello Carammia is someone with whom I can easily think in one direction on the field of political science, not least because the Sicilian and the Bulgarian mindsets are very close. Without his collaboration our dataset on the European Council agenda would not have been of the same quality. Working together was simply a pleasure. In short, a PhD does not only deliver scientific results and new knowledge for the incumbent, it also brings new friendships. Furthermore, I want to use the opportunity to thank my secondary school history teacher Tsonyo Tsonev who once sparked my passion for studying politics. Facing the tough moments of authoring a dissertation would not have been possible without the caring support and encouraging words of my close friends Polina and Georgi, thinking of whom always brings a smile on my lips. My gratefulness extends to my family in the name of my mother and of my grandmother, who unfortunately, could not live long enough to take the pride of her granddaughter holding a PhD. Last but certainly not least, my debts to my partner and soul mate Lyubo for his unconditional love and support and for believing in me all the time are just too large to express in words. xiii

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