From the Editor s Desk

Transcription

1 31 August 2010 Vol. 1, 32. From the Editor s Desk Dear FDI supporters, Welcome to the Strategic Weekly Analysis. In this week s edition, the Indian Ocean research programme looks into Beijing s continuing investments in East Timor, in the wake of the recent announcement that China will fund construction of a new headquarters building for the East Timorese Armed Forces. Also considered is what has been a generally sluggish response from the world community to the flooding crisis currently ravaging Pakistan and some of the possible reasons behind it. Meanwhile, the Global Food and Water Crises research programme investigates plans to divert and dam the waters of the Brahmaputra River, one of South Asia s largest and most important waterways, in ambitious plans for a giant new dam in the far reaches of Tibet. The FDI Indian Ocean Dialogue will be held at the same venue on Friday, 3 rd September. This month s speaker is Her Excellency Ms Fauzia Nasreen, High Commissioner of Pakistan to Australia, who will speak on Pakistan: Perspectives, Challenges and Opportunities. Registration opens from 9.15am. To reserve your place at what will be two very informative and topical presentations, FDI at info@futuredirections.org.au or telephone Upcoming Strategic Analysis Papers include an overview from the Indian Ocean research programme of some of the critical issues likely to be confronted in the region over the next ten years and, from the Northern Australia research programme, an analysis of the future challenges for the Pilbara region. This week FDI is pleased to host two very distinguished speakers. As part of the FDI Guest Speakers Series, His Excellency Alexios G. Christopoulos, Greek Ambassador to Australia, will deliver an address titled The Global Financial Crisis: Europe, and Greece in Particular on Wednesday, 1 st September, at the Curtin University Graduate School of Business, 78 Murray Street, Perth from 10.00am. FDI welcomes comment on both SWA articles and Strategic Analysis Papers. Comments, as well as suggestions for future articles, can be forwarded by to Leighton G. Luke at lluke@futuredirections.org.au Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Institute Director and CEO Future Directions International

2 China to Fund East Timor Military HQ Is Dili Moving Closer to Beijing? Background Beijing s interest in East Timor continues apace, with the announcement on 24 August 2010 that China will fund the $8.9 million construction of a new building in the capital, Dili, to house the Ministry of Defence and Security and the Headquarters of the country s military forces. China has been investing significantly in East Timor in recent times, which has welcomed Beijing s no strings attached approach. Comment China s latest investment in East Timor, the funding of the $8.9 million building to house the Ministry of Defence and Security and the Headquarters of the country s armed forces, the Falintil-Forças de Defesa de Timor-Leste (F-FDTL), was announced in Dili on 24 August. It was followed by a ground-breaking ceremony at which East Timorese Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão and the Chinese Ambassador to East Timor turned the first stone on the construction site. The new project follows on from the purchase by Dili of two Shanghai-class patrol craft valued at US$28 million ($31.1 million) Jaco and Betano which entered into service with the F-FDTL Naval Component in June 2010 and other high-profile projects, such as the construction of the new Presidential Palace and Ministry of Foreign Affairs building. The patrol boat sale, the F-FDTL headquarters project and the provision of facilities and training to F-FDTL personnel underscore an expansion by Beijing into East Timorese defence assistance, an area which, since independence, has more usually been supplied by Australia, Portugal, New Zealand, the United States and Brazil. It is a situation potentially of concern to Australia, particularly in view of the statement by Prime Minister Gusmão of Dili s firm intention of seeking increased military co-operation with friendly countries, including our Chinese brothers. Mr Gusmão went on to say that attempts by other countries to place conditions on our choices would not be legitimate 1 a veiled reference to possible Australian unease at a growing Chinese presence in East Timor. Emphasising the attractiveness of China to East Timor, Ágio Pereira, Commissioner of the Timorese Pavilion at the Shanghai Expo, noted on 2 May in the Lisbon daily Jornal de Notícias, that China is a huge market that, compared with Australia, for example, is not so expensive, and we can take advantage of what China produces [because it is] affordable for our people. 1 Gusmão, X., 24 August 2010, Alocução de Sua Excelência o Primeiro-Ministro por Ocasião do Lançamento da Primeira Pedra para a Construção do Edifício do Ministério da Defesa e do Quartel-General F-FDTL. [Address by His Excellency the Prime Minister on the Occasion of the Turning of the First Stone for the Construction of the Ministry of Defence and F-FDTL Headquarters Building]. < Page 2 of 6

3 Despite its small size, East Timor is an equally attractive proposition for China, given its unrealised agricultural potential and sizeable oil and natural gas deposits. It therefore fits well in any Chinese strategy to diversify energy and food sources. Indeed, in April 2010, the government of Sichuan Province donated thirty tractors and ten vans to further contribute to the development of the Timorese agricultural sector, a move which earned thanks from Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Mariano Sabino for the kind gesture from the Chinese farming community. For the Timorese, it could also help to prevent or minimise food shortages of the kind experienced in While the Chinese contributions may be high-profile, it is nevertheless worth noting, however, that the sums involved ($59 million, over the period ) are still significantly less than those given by the country s three largest foreign aid donors: Australia ($930 million, from June 2010), Portugal, which gave $169.5 million ( million) in , and Japan ($175.5 million, in the period). Leighton G. Luke Manager Indian Ocean Research Programme lluke@futuredirections.org.au Controversy over Sluggish Pakistan Flood Aid Background The post-flooding situation in Pakistan is expected to get worse yet, with growing concern over issues such as the spread of deadly diseases, destroyed homes and extensive damage to the country s crops and infrastructure. As the country is appealing for more donations from the international community to overcome the consequences of the disaster, it appears that the hesitation and sluggish aid from donors to date could be fuelled by uncertainty relating to the transparency of the donations made. Comment It has been estimated that the floods in Pakistan have affected over one fifth of the country s area or 20 million people, killing more than 1,500 persons. The country was already under pressure with increasing economic and political instability characterised by a soaring unemployment rate, high food prices and the presence of Islamist activists. The compounding effect has resulted in Pakistan facing an important challenge in rebuilding its economy and re-establishing confidence among its inhabitants. The Pakistani authorities have been criticised for their apparently inadequate and slow response to the crisis that has resulted in the proliferation of Islamist charities such as Falah-e-Insaniyat/Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which are suspected to be linked to extremist groups. At a time when Pakistan needs foreign donations the most, there is a growing concern about corruption and the employment of contributions toward the emergency flood assistance. In Page 3 of 6

4 actual fact, diverse associations and government agencies have warned that such militant groups and charities could take advantage of the increasing desperation of disaster victims to reinforce their legitimacy. Moreover, endemic corruption, together with President Asif Ali Zardari s ill-timed trip to Europe and the inefficiency of Pakistan s Government in handling the situation, did not encourage open-handed international donation. In that sense, another factor contributing to the sluggish foreign aid is the image problem that Pakistan has long suffered from; a problem that it needs to solve. This could explain why, at a time when international donations were predicted to climb, the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) unexpectedly decided to downgrade the Indian armed forces as the top security threat in favour of home-grown Islamist militants many of which it is accused of having supported. There are reasons to believe that this move from the ISI was deliberately adopted to embellish its negative image and reputation in the eyes of the world community. While some viewed the acceptance of India s US$5 million ($5.6 million) donation to Pakistan s flood victims as a burgeoning opportunity to improve the long-standing antipathy between the two countries, others such as Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid, view the Pakistan-India relationship as being as unclear and tense as ever, following recent talks between the two nations that resulted in no acceptable and sustainable common interest agreements. Johann Montocchio FDI Researcher Indian Ocean Research Programme Brahmaputra River Joins Power Play Background As part of a plan to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra River, China is said to be also working on building the world s biggest dam at the river s so-called Great Bend, just before it enters India. The Pakistan Defence Forum reports that the dam will be strategically located at Tibet s corner with north-eastern India and could threaten the water security of India. Indian officials are treating the plans with concern, with the matter likely to be raised in November during a possible meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in the South Korean City of Gyeongju. Comment The Brahmaputra River, at almost 3,000 kilometres in length, is considered one of the major rivers of Asia. Originating in Tibet, it flows in a south-west direction through the Assam Valley before heading south through Bangladesh, where it is known as the Jamuna River. China is preparing to build a dam that is expected to generate 38,000 megawatts of power. To put this in perspective, this is twice the capacity of the giant Three Gorges Dam. The Page 4 of 6

5 dammed water will also be used for farming and industry. International Rivers, an organisation which seeks to protect rivers and their environment, warns that a dam could also threaten Indian communities downstream, should it burst. It will produce the equivalent of 25 per cent of India s current electricity generation from all sources. The dam brings to the fore what is a considerable weak point for India. Almost all of the major Indian rivers flow through Tibet, which is controlled by the Chinese. The Pakistan Defence Forum reports that besides the dam, China is also planning to re-route part of the Brahmaputra waters, creating a canyon larger and deeper than the Grand Canyon in the US. 2 It is expected that approximately 40 billion cubic metres of water will be diverted. The damming and diversion of the Brahmaputra across 33 different sites along the river will also threaten the existence of India s own hydroelectric power generation. There simply may not be sufficient water to operate them, as projections indicate that up to 85 per cent of the water could be diverted, depending on the season. India may suffer from the decision to build the dam, but perhaps the greatest concern will rest in Bangladesh as the Brahmaputra is the country s most important river. The strategy to dam or divert rivers that flow through Chinese-controlled territory is not a new phenomenon; China has built dams on the Mekong, Salween and Irtysh-Illy Rivers. Having control of the rivers, before they enter surrounding countries, provides China with significant regional power which could then be used as leverage in achieving other security or geographical ambitions. Gary Kleyn Manager Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au What s Next? Mauritian Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam is meeting today with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner at the Élysée Palace. Key topics for discussion include economic relations and anti-piracy measures. (Continued next page) 2 Pakistan Defence Forum, China s Murky Hydropolitics, 17 August 2010, < Page 5 of 6

6 What s Next? (From previous page) Professor David Shambaugh will deliver a lecture titled China's International Identities: The Conflicted Rising Power on 31 August at Lecture Theatre 1, Hedley Bull Centre, Building #130, ANU, Canberra, from pm. &semyear=2010 The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) will hold its 14 th Summit of Heads of State in Mbabane, Swaziland from 31 August-1 September. The Africa Down Under conference looking at mining opportunities in Africa and featuring several African Mining and Resources Ministers will be held at the Sheraton Hotel, Perth from 1-3 September. For more details, visit: The Speaker of Pakistan s National Assembly, Fehmida Mirza, will address the Assembly on the topics of incoming foreign assistance and issues related to the rescue and relief operations in the country s flood-affected areas on 2 September. The Centre for Independent Studies will host a Foreign Policy Lecture on China and India on 7 September 2010 at Level 4, 38 Oxley St, St Leonards, NSW from pm. Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International. Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd. Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005 Australia. Tel: Fax: lluke@futuredirections.org.au Web: Page 6 of 6