Economic Development Services ~ Economic Impact Overview New Nuclear Powerplant

Transcription

1 Economic Development Services ~ Economic Impact Overview New Nuclear Powerplant Mitchell Wilkie, MIM, SBCC, CMMIII Manager of Economic Development Services

2 Major Presentation Points Project Scope Assumptions? County of Renfrew Overview Maps Economic Base Major Sectors Workforce Labour Housing & Accommodation Education Community & Social Services Municipal Finance Municipal Zoning & Site Locations

3 Project Scope? New Nuclear Powerplant ACR ,200 MWe Designed for a 2016 in-service date CANDU MWe or Enhanced CANDU MWe 10 operating, 1 under construction System Simulator for Testing & Training Computer-based technologies Design verification Procedural development Operator training Nuclear Research & Industrial Park Countywide Cluster National International Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Research & Development Longer-term project

4 If two new CANDU reactors were constructed in Canada, the economic impact on the GDP is estimated to be CDN$2.6 billion over the period of construction, with a total employment of 40,000 person-years. Economic Impact of the Nuclear Industry in Canada Canadian Energy Research Institute - July 2003 CANDU 3 "groundbreaking to in-service" estimated at 58 months, $530 million cost, and 6,220 person years of employment for Deep River Keir & Muller Associates "Nuclear Power Generating Station Impact Analysis Study"

5 Build Factors to Consider Small plant vs. large plant. Large plants require huge commitment in funds and resources. Several economic cycles during build; difficult for budgeting & cost control. Regional & export development for ACR (proximity to Ottawa) should be part of the solution. Nuclear technology is an important part of Ontario economy; it shouldn t be justified on a dollars per MW cost basis.

6 Local Economy, Employment & Income Construction Phase Payroll project workforce and management. Secondary Payroll secondary jobs. Direct project expenditures for material and equipment. Operations Phase Payroll & 2-years of commissioning & training. Secondary Annual Payroll. Annual Project Expenditures ongoing for supplies & services. Manufacture & Design of project components.

7 County of Renfrew Deux Rivieres OTTAWA Deep River TORONTO Algonquin Park Barry s Bay Chalk River Killaloe Petawawa Eganville Pembroke Cobden Renfrew 17 Municipalities Arnprior Griffith Hardwood Lake Calabogie

8 AECL Empl oyees are Part of the Community Stonecliffe - 2 Mackey - 4 Rolphton - 2 Deep River CRL Boundary Chalk River Algonquin Provincial Park Petawawa Chapeau - 16 Waltham - 4 Westmeath - 11 Pembroke Round Lake Centre - 2 Killaloe - 18 Barry's Bay - 1 Combermere - 2 Beachburg - 10 Foresters Falls - 3 Cobden - 26 Golden Lake - 7 Portage-du-Fort - 2 Haley Station - 4 Eganville - 17 Bristol - 1 Douglas - 4 Renfrew - 6 Arnprior - 2 White Lake - 1 CFO GIS Services 2005 (does not include another 55 employees living outside Renfrew and Pontiac Counties

9 Economic Base BR&E Survey (2004) StatsCan Data ( )

10 Renfrew Population Growth Population 97, Population 95, Change 2.5% Deep River 2% Laurentian Hills 1.4% Head, Clara & Maria 0% Petawawa 1.8% Pembroke 3.3% Head, Clara & Maria StatsCan Brudenell, Lyndoch & Raglan Deep River Killaloe, Hagerty & Richards Admaston/Bromley Whitewater Region Bonnechere Valley Renfrew County Town of Renfrew Laurentian Valley Pem broke Petawawa Laurentian Hills Greater Madawaska Ontario McNab/Braeside North Algona Wilberforce Horton Madawaska Valley Arnprior Percentage

11 Workforce Labour Average 1 employee per MWe of installed capacity (5-10% uncertainty). CANDU-6 design Point Lepreau, NB rated at 635 Mwe employees. ACR-1000 produces 1000 to 1200 MWe CANDU-6 is produces 600 to 750 MWe 1,700 2,300 temporary persons during construction stage. Our skilled trade workforce is about 3,140 (StatsCan 2001) immigrating persons for ongoing operations.

12 48,880 Total Labour Force Higher % people with skilled trades than national average Includes 3,140 (6%) Skilled & Construction Tradespersons 2001 StatsCan

13 48,880 Total Labour Force Includes 3,140 (6%) Skilled & Construction Tradespersons 2001 StatsCan

14 Top 16 Major Employers Employees Employees Employees COMPANY LOCATION PRODUCT/SERVICE CFB Petawawa Petawawa Military AECL Chalk River Nuclear Research & Development RC District School Board Pembroke Education Pembroke Hospital Pembroke Health Care County of Renfrew Pembroke Municipal Government OLS Pembroke Call Centre Renfrew Hospital Renfrew Health Care KI Pembroke Pembroke Office Equipment Manufacturer Magellan Aerospace Haley Station High Pressure Diecasting Arnprior Aerospace Arnprior Aviation Manufacturing Teletech Renfrew Call Centre Nylene Canada Arnprior Resin & Fibre Manufacturing Murray Bros. Lumber Co Madawaska Twp. Lumber Scapa Tapes Renfrew Adhesive Tape Manufacturing Sandvik Materials Tech. Arnprior Metal Fabrication Paramed Pembroke Infant & Child Care

15 Immigration Needs for Skilled Trades Canada: aging population & declining birthrates Immigration 20% of net population growth. Today Immigration 70% of net population growth. 2009: short one million skilled workers. 2011: labour force totally dependent on immigration. 2026: Canada s population growth totally dependent on immigration. Deaths will outnumber births. Rural Canada: < 20% of the population. 1980s Annual Average Immigration 125,000/year 1990s Annual Average Immigration 220,000/year 2010s Annual Average Immigration 325,000/year Canada s population 32,880,470 (April 2007) Citizenship & Immigration policy will continue to increase immigration levels to 1% of population, while considering our absorptive capacity.

16 Housing & Accommodation Existing housing stock might accommodate 1/4-1/3 of peak (800-1,200) in-bound construction workers. Division of housing amongst Deep River, Laurentian Hills, Head Clara & Maria, Petawawa, & Pembroke. Greatest demand will be rental housing. Project proponent or independent developer would supply housing (i.e. trailer parks, apartment bldg.). New housing developments tied to absorption levels to avoid oversupply permanent units during construction phase & temporary housing for balance of demand. Produces near zero vacancy rate & rising accommodation costs affecting permanent residents (relocations, new household formations).

17 Housing & Accommodation LAURENTIAN HILLS # of SUBDIVISION LOTS FINAL APPROVAL SINCE 1988 # of SUBDIVISION LOTS DRAFT APPROVAL SINCE 1988 but not yet Final Approval # of SUBDIVISION LOTS PROPOSED in RECENT APPLICATIONS (2005 on) DEEP RIVER PETAWAWA LAURENTIAN VALLEY TOTAL

18 Boards of Education Renfrew County District School Board Excess capacity: 5,367 Equivalent to 200 surplus classrooms. Renfrew County Catholic District School Board Excess capacity: unknown - no response received. Conseil des écoles publiques de l'est de l'ontario École élémentaire et secondaire publique L Équinoxe. Currently, 242 excess capacity. 650 excess capacity in new school (former Laurentian Public School). Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est Centre scolaire catholique Jeanne-Lajoie. No excess capacity. Currently using 3 portable classrooms. Further expansion plans in 2-years.

19 Education Costs & Service Expenditures will increase with enrolment. Offset by provincial grants & increased assessment produced by additional residences and spin-off business growth. School taxes per household not significantly affected. Marginal increase in service levels possible. Potential for wider range of program offerings. During operating phase only a marginal student increase.

20 Renfrew School Age Projections ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,

21 Renfrew School Enrolment Projections ,000 2,500 Renfrew 2,000 Petawawa Pembroke 1,500 1, Opeongo Madawaska Deep River Arnprior

22 Community & Social Services In-migrating population during construction & during operations not expected to strain service capacity of community & social services agencies and emergency services. Potential need of additional staff or equipment for municipal fire department to help protect Nuclear Power Plant. Leisure and recreation services are more than adequate.

23 Municipal Finance PIL (Payment in Lieu) of taxes. The Power Corporation Act sets procedure for calculation & distribution of PIL by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). Property subject to value assessment & municipal-set mill rate. Annual PIL paid will typically be lower than normal municipal tax calculated total. Maximum payment made will not exceed 50% of the total taxes raised by the municipality. County of Renfrew receives share of PIL. PIL of education taxes retained by lower-tier municipality. Additional revenue should lower mill rate & reduce taxes on individual properties.

24 Municipal Finance Additional Municipal Revenue Potential building permit fee revenue for lower-tier municipality (more than cover inspection costs) if Federal government will pay them. Potential for Community Impact Grants by OPG. Increased tax revenue with additional residences and new spin-off businesses established. Additional Municipal Expenditure Site & infrastructure servicing recovered through additional assessment & potential grants. Influx and settlement of workers support. Marginal affect on sewer, water, recreation, libraries, fire & police. County PIL not expected to significantly impact expenditures.

25 Municipal Zoning

26 Municipal Zoning Rolphton Site Civic Address: Highway 17 Pt Lots 41-44, Range A Pt Lots 41-45, Range B Pt Town Lot Reserve Pt Rd Allowance Geographic Township of Rolph Town of Laurentian Hills Official Plan: Crown Land; Sect 5.12 applies Zoning By-law Rural (RU) Zone (Pt Lots 41-45, Range B only) No Zoning on remainder of subject lands Sect applies to lands zoned RU.

27 Approximate AECL Rolphton Site from Google Earth

28 Rolphton Site Location

29 Zoning

30 Section of Official OP Plan part of AECL land Crown Lands

31 Municipal Zoning AECL Site Control Plant Site Pt Lots 6-9, Conc 13 Pt Lots 6-10, Conc 12 Pt Lots 5-13, Conc 11 Pt Lots 6-15, Conc 10 Pt Lots 6-16, Concs 8 & 9 Pt Lots 19-39, Ranges A & B Geographic Township of Buchanan Town of Deep River Official Plan: not designated Zoning By-law Not zoned

32 Approximate AECL Site from Google Earth

33 AECL Site Location

34 Section of Official Plan

35 Thank you! Mitchell Wilkie, MIM, SBCC, CMMIII Manager of Economic Development Services PH: