Conflicts that Cause Refugees to Flee

Transcription

1 REPORT BY CENTRE DELÀS 32 European Arms that Foster Armed Conflicts Conflicts that Cause Refugees to Flee An analysis of arms exports from the European Union to countries in conflict or tension with refugees or internally displaced persons Authors: Jordi Calvo Rufanges Ainhoa Ruiz Benedicto Edgard Vega Vargas

2 Centre Delàs d Estudis per la Pau Carrer Erasme de Janer 8, entresol, despatx 9 81 Barcelona T info@centredelas.org Authors: Jordi Calvo Rufanges (Coord.) Ainhoa Ruiz Benedicto Edgard Vega Vargas Acknowledgements: Rosalia Macias, Elisenda Ribes, Teresa de Fortuny, Andrea Jiménez, Lona Sniderman Barcelona, June 217 Design and layout: Esteva&Estêvão Cover photo: Freedom House (Flickr) D.L.: B ISSN:

3 IndEX Executive Summary Introduction Relationship between armed conflicts and refugee/displaced populations Evolution of refugees and displaced persons in countries in conflict or tension Countries with significant situations of security, refugees or displaced persons European arms exported to countries in conflict or tension European arms that foster conflicts which generate refugees and displaced persons Particularly controversial arms importers based on their situations of instability European Arms to places in conflict with significant volumes of refugees and displaced persons and continually worsening situations of security Conclusions...42 Annex Annex EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 3

4 Index of graphs, tables and maps Figure 1: Value of authorized and total exports of arms in EU Figure 2: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Irak and Yemen Figure 3: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Syria Figure 4: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia and Turkey Figure 5: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Mauritania, Mali, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Sudan, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Burundi and Zimbabwe Figure 6: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia and Azerbaijan Figure 7: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Libya Figure 8: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Myanmar and the Philippines Table 1: Leading countries with refugees and displaced persons due to instability Table 2: Exports of arms from the EU to countries in conflict or tension Table 3: Refugees, displaced persons and exports to countries in conflict and tension...22 Table 4: Particularly controversial importers of european arms Map 1: Evolution of the average number of refugees according to their country s security situation between Map 2: Evolution of the average number of displaced persons according to their country s security situation between Map 3: Destinations of authorized exports by member states of the EU in conflict or tension between Map 4: Destinations of realized exports by member states of the EU in conflict or tension between Map 5: Destinations of european arms exports and the evolution of armed conflicts and populations of refugees/displaced persons ANNEX Table 1: Refugee populations by country/territory of origin in situation of armed conflict (23-214) Table 2: Refugee populations by country/territory of origin in situation of tension (23-214) Table 3: Refugee populations from countries/territories without particularly negative security situations (23-14) Table 4: Internally displaced populations in countries in conflict or tension (23-14) Table 5: Average number of refugees and displaced persons based on the state of conflict of their country between and the evolution of these conflicts Table 6: Exports authorized by the member states of the EU to destinations in conflict or tension between Table 7: Exports carried out by the member states of the EU to destinations in conflict or tension between Table 8: Authorized and realized european exports Table 9: Authorized and realized exports by the member states of the EU to destinations in conflict or tension between Table 1: Destinations of european arms exports and the evolution of armed conflicts and populations of refugees/displaced persons ANNEX Evolution of EU arms exports, statuses of conflict and number of forcibly displaced persons in 26 selected countries: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Central African Republic, Serbia, Kenya, Burundi, Georgia, Yemen, Mali, China, Turkey, Philippines, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mauritania, Libya, Russia, Colombia

5 Executive Summary The arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees at the gates of Europe, mainly from the Syrian war, has given rise to political and social agendas focused on how to receive this population and on border control and surveillance. However, there has not been a sufficiently exhaustive debate about the causes of these population movements. At Centre Delàs we are especially concerned with the role that armaments play in the aggravation and perpetuation of armed conflicts. Given that Europe is one of the centers of arms production and export in all the world, we ask ourselves if we are in any way responsible for the conditions of violence from which refugees flee, refugees that we do not want to accommodate. This report aims to identify the relationship between arms exports and fluxes of refugees and displaced persons, with the ultimate goal of determining whether or not EU member states are directly or indirectly responsible for the situations of violence and instability that drive millions of people from their homes each year. Another objective of this study is to determine whether or not the authorized and realized EU arms exports respect the existing legislation on arms sales. The legislation referred to is the Common Position 28/944 /CFSP of December 8th, 28, which clarifies common parameters for arms exports and defines 22 categories of export materials: ammunition, small arms aircrafts and warships, military transport vehicles and military technology. The relationship between European legislation on arms exports and the situations of insecurity that lead to refugees and internally displaced persons can be established on the basis of criteria X, Y and Z of the Common Position. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 5

6 Between 23 and 214 there were 89 countries with significant numbers of refugees, some of them also notable for their high number of internally displaced persons. Of these countries, 65 have been in armed conflict or tension during the majority of the 12 years of the study (32 in conflict, 33 in tension). These 65 countries represent 88% of the world s refugees (whose annual average is 3,859,539), 65% of whom come from armed conflicts and 8% of whom come from stress scenarios. Between 23 and 214, EU member states used current legislation to export military and military-grade materials to 63 of the 65 prevailing countries in situations of tension or in armed conflict. The total value of EU exports authorized between 23 and 214 reached 453 billion, with actual exports accounting for 119 billion. Of these, 29% of authorizations (122 billion euros) and 31% of realized exports (37 billion euros) have gone to these 63 countries in armed conflict or tension. Europe has sold arms to 3 countries in permanent conflict (India, Turkey, Pakistan, Algeria, Indonesia, Israel, Russia, Thailand, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Nigeria, Colombia, the Philippines, Yemen, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Chad, Sri Lanka, Mali, Côte d Ivoire, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Burundi, Moldova, Somalia, the Central African Republic, Nepal, South Sudan) and in none of them has the conflict been resolved. Arms sales to some of these destinations have continued despite their worsening security, such as Turkey, Pakistan, Yemen, Ethiopia, Mali, Syria, Burundi, the Central African Republic and Libya. We have been able to identify 39 countries that import European armaments as particularly controversial recipients, both for their figures of arms imports and for their volumes of refugees and displaced persons. Of these 39 countries, 26 have demonstrated a stagnant or worsening state of instability, making them especially sensitive recipients of arms. There have been million euros worth of arms exported and million euros worth of exports authorized to these 26 countries, which tells us that the majority of total exports to the 39 most controversial destinations have gone to these 26 countries with populations of refugees and displaced persons and precarious conditions of security. During this period, there was an average of 27 million refugees and displaced persons in these countries. The stagnant/worsening conditions of stability in these countries indicate that their continual importation of arms may directly affect their states of security. Arms to unstable countries Almost a third of the main recipients of European armament worldwide are in situations of tension or conflict, so it is unsurprising to find that statistics show European arms exports ending up in countries at war or in situations of grave insecurity. European arms exports have thus had the potential to worsen or perpetuate armed violence in these countries, preventing the lives of refugees or displaced persons from returning to normalcy. The EU holds a certain degree of direct or indirect liability in provoking the conditions that force civilian populations to flee from their homes because of its sale of armaments to places where security has worsened. The existence of refugees and displaced persons in a certain country is a clear indicator that the stability in their country of origin is deficient, and this factor is one of the criteria by which a state should reject an authorization or export of arms. We can confirm that exporting member countries of the EU have decided to authorize export licenses or effectively transfer arms to countries with vulnerable civilian populations as indicated by their fluxes of immigrants and displaced persons. Only by understanding the context of violence in which refugees and displaced persons live can we begin to comprehend their necessary decision to flee from their homes. As long as the conflicts in their home countries continue, they will have no alternative. These conflicts are in part perpetuated by the EU s sale of weapons to countries with unstable conditions like Syria or Yemen. This report attempts to explain that Europe s relationship with these conflict zones is not limited to asylum policies and does not begin when refugees arrive at member states shores. It begins when institutions and companies decide to invest in the war business and will continue until we pursue policies that prohibit and penalize the arms trade. 6 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

7 1. Introduction The hundreds of thousands of people in search of shelter in 216 has planted a reality in political and mediatic agendas that is not new. Based on facts from the UNHCR, 65 million people live outside of their homes after having to flee from them. Of these people, 41 million are internally displaced 1 and 21 are refugees 2. The majority of these populations come from countries like Syria, immersed in a civil war that has already lasted six years and that had produced five million refugees by the end of 214. Following Syria as the countries with the highest number of refugees are Afghanistan and Somalia, with 2.7 and 1.1 million refugees respectively. These millions of people forcefully displaced from their homes in search of security are the crux of what many call the refugee crisis. In their journey, the majority (86% according to CEAR 3 ) arrive in neighboring countries like Turkey, Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Ethiopia and Jordan. But the presence of these people went largely unnoticed in the west until the exacerbation of conflicts like the one in Syria incited thousands of people to cross the mediterranean, especially after 215. The absence of alternate routes led refugees to knock on Europe s doors as they arrived to locations like Italy and Greece. The response was general support from many of the sectors of public opinion and a promise to relocate 16, refugees by governmental institutions, but, in September of 216, the European Commision announced that only 5,651 or 3.5% of refugees had been relocated. It is for this reason that the primary objective of this report is to analyze the relationship between arms exports and fluxes of refugees and displaced persons, with the ultimate goal of determining whether the member states of the EU are directly or indirectly responsible for the conditions of instability and violence in the recipient states. Another objective is to understand the extent to which realized and authorized 1. Internally displaced persons do not cross international borders in search of security and protection, but remain within their own country. In certain circumstances, they may be forced to flee for the same reasons as refugees (armed conflict, widespread violence, human rights violations), with the difference that internally displaced persons remain under the protection of their government, even in cases where that government itself is one of the causes of their flight According to the Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, a refugee is a person who, because of well-founded fears of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside of the country of his [or her] nationality and is unable, or owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail him [or her]self of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his [or her] former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it. (UNHCR, 217: Who is a refugee, available on unhcr.org, consulted april 25, 217). 3. CEAR (216): 216 Report: Refugees in Spain and Europe, available at EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 7

8 exports by the EU fall in line with the general parameters for arms exports outlined in the Common Position of the EU. This position establishes limits on arms exports by member states of the EU to countries that do not comply with a certain established criteria 4. Every member state is subject to legislation regarding exports of defence material and material of dual use as defined by the Common Position of the EU 28/944 /CFSP, Exportations of Military Technology and Equipment. Through this they are obligated to incorporate the criteria to which we have referred into their own national legislation while fully respecting the guidelines of the EU. In this study we consider the existence of refugees and displaced persons as an unequivocal indicator of an instability in the location. In fact, UNHCR confirms that many people are forced to flee from their homes to insecure destinations, urban zones, countries where access to shelter is restricted and to new, faraway places. Depending on the extremity of conditions and the amount of aid provided to the country, prolonged conflicts also sometimes result in permanent displacement. 5 The United Nations elaborates on this idea, stating that the parties involved in conflict often used forced displacements of large sections of their population to meet their military objectives, such as the practice of ethnic cleansing. At the global level, during a conflict there are twice as many internally displaced persons as refugees, while 9% of all refugees remain in their region of origin 6 Arms can end up aggravating violence from which displaced persons and refugees flee, worsening the circumstances in their home countries and impeding them from returning. The member states of the EU have access to this information and can use use it to make decisions about whether or not to approve licenses or to export arms to these countries. We therefore consider in this report that the authorization of export licenses for defense, dual use, or any material considered to be an arm to destinations that have significant populations of refugee and displaced persons to be controversial and requiring of a rigorous process of critical reflection at the state level before approval. On this note, it will be important in this investigation to check whether there have been sales of European armaments to any country in a state of insecurity that could lead people to become refugees or displaced, and whether these countries have been granted export licenses with a clear understanding of this state of instability. In the first chapter, we will analyze flows of refugees and internally displaced persons with the aim of identifying the main countries of origin from which people flee based on conditions of insecurity, war, and violence. For this purpose, we have identified the countries in armed conflict or tension that are the principal generators of internally displaced people in the last year of our analysis, 214. We have followed the parameters of the annual analysis of conflicts and peacebuilding of the Escola Cultura de Pau Of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 7 and determined that 89 countries have significant rates of refugees and displaced persons, 65 of which are in situations of conflict or tension. We will proceed to identify EU arms exports and flows of refugees and internally displaced persons worldwide for the period , which corresponds to a period in which ample information exists on both european arms exports and refugees and displaced persons. This timeframe is also broad enough to draw conclusions from trends and policies with a certain permanence or constancy that are not subject to cyclical variations, giving us a total of 63 countries out of 65 in conflict or tension. Secondly, we will draw connections between arms exports, population flows and the security situation of the importing country in an attempt to answer the following questions: Have arms been exported from EU member countries to places in conflict or tension where there are significant rates of refugees and internally displaced persons? 4. The exclusion criteria for arms exports from the Common Position are: 1) the existence of embargoes and sanctions; 2) violation of Human Rights and respect for International Humanitarian Law; 3) A security situation of tension or armed conflict; 4) The situation of regional stability and security; 5) The relationship with national security and allies; (6) The conduct of the country of destination in the International Community; 7) The risk of diversion and re-export; (8) The economic and technical capacity of the recipient country. 5. UNHCR (212): Situation of refugees in the world, in search of solidarity. Available at resumen_ pdf consulted May 18th, United Nations (217): United Nations and Humanitarian Aid, available at consulted May 22nd Escola Cultura de Pau considers armed conflict to be the confrontation of armed groups with incompatible objectives in which the use of violence causes a minimum of 1 fatalities in a year, among other qualitative impacts, with differentiated objectives of those of delinquency. It considers the situation in the dissatisfaction on the part of the population on high levels of political and social mobilization and / or a use of violence with an intensity that does not reach that of an armed conflict. Interpretation of the definition that can be found escolapau.uab.es/conictosypaz/deniciones.php 8 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

9 Have these arms exports aggravated or perpetuated armed violence, generating new refugees or displaced persons or not allowing their lives to return to normal? Have EU member countries made the political decision to export arms to countries with clear indicators of insecurity and population movements through the authorization of export licenses or the effective realization of arms transfers? The sources used for refugee and displaced data are provided by UNHCR, with corresponding figures at the end of each year and excluding refugees and displaced persons in a similar situation. Data on arms exports has been collected from the annual reports on the European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports of the Official Journal of the European Union 8 from the EU export browser ENAAT official reports have been used, which can be found at the European Union External Action Service website: headquarters/headquarters-homepage/427/disarmament-nonproliferation-and-arms-export-control_en 9. ENAAT is the European Network Against Arms Trade which provides a database on European arms exports. This report appears in the EU Member States official reports: en.html EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 9

10 2. Relationship between armed conflicts and refugee/ displaced populations One of the principal objectives of this report is to identify if the EU has exported arms responsibly by considering standards of security and living conditions. A first step will be to study the state of security of each country as a function of its population movements, referring to either internally displaced people or those forced outside of their country (refugees), along with analyzing the evolution of each country s indicators of conflict or tension that The Escola Cultura de Pau of the UAB annually publishes. This publication shows facts about refugees and displaced persons in each of the countries with a significant rates of these populations between 23 and 214, incorporating an indicator based on how the numbers of these populations change during the period of study. The goal here is to be able to discriminate between those countries whose security situations have improved, worsened or remained constant with regard to the number of people who, according to statistics of the UNHCR, have been forced to abandon their homes. It is a matter of showing that these countries are experiencing situations that have obligated a considerable number of people to seek protection and security in other places. We thus consider that persistently rising rates of refugees and displaced persons in the period of study is, in most cases, an indicator of instability and of sustained conflict in the region. 2.1 Evolution of refugees and displaced persons in countries in conflict or tension The knowledge of existing movements of populations within a country or flowing outside of a country is a factor that must be considered in making a responsible decision to ship arms to this destination. By also considering whether or not a country is in a state of conflict or tension, we arrive at a world map of the countries from which refugees flee in search of asylum and in which internally displaced people leave their homes in search of safety within their own country. There exist 32 countries in armed conflict with an average of 7,547,6 refugees annually. Among those highlighted as the principal locations of ongoing wars are Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Sudan and South Sudan, Somalia, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic. Of all the countries listed as the most conflict-ridden during the period of study, ten have demonstrated increasing trends in their number of refugees, indicating that their conflicts may have worsened. This is the case in Somalia, Syria, Colombia, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Ukraine, Mali, Nepal, Libya and Yemen. As can be seen from map 1, another thirteen countries show constant or variable trends, with maintained flows of displaced populations seeking asylum. It is important to keep in mind, however, that there are also countries that have been in conflict between and have considerably reduced their volumes of refugees in other countries, like Iraq, Burundi, Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, Uganda, Libya, Argelia and Moldavia. Nevertheless, these places have still witnessed high rates of refugees during the period. In regards to these countries that have been in situations of tension during the majority of the investigation period (IP), we can conclude that rates of refugees do not exceed the annual average of one million. This shows that armed conflict is the primary motivator for refugees or displaced persons to leave their homes. From this list, which you can find in annex 1, only four countries had an average of more than 1, refugees: Serbia, China, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Of these, only China has an upward trend. However, while just under 2, refugees is an undoubtedly high number (although per capita terms suggest a smaller amount), it is necessary to consider the countries with smaller numbers of refugees that have upward trends. This is the case for Haiti, Senegal, Guinea, Egypt and Venezuela, among others. It is also worth taking into account the cases of Rwanda, Mauritania, Georgia or Kenya, which have maintained relatively high volumes of refugees over time and demonstrate the difficulties of addressing the circumstances that generated tension or conflict in the first place. Finally, it is integral to incorporate an analysis of the list of countries that have refugees but are not necessarily experiencing instability or security issues. First, it should be noted that on average there have been more than 1.7 million refugees from countries that have not been in any significant tension or conflict during the IP. These countries owe their high volume of refugees to previous situations of insecurity, which could be related to arms supplies that they had received from the EU in the period before Among the countries with a significant number of refugees that has increased or remained constant with obvious variations from one year to another, Eritrea and Myanmar stand out. However we must also keep in mind Iran, the Republic of the Congo, Togo, Ghana, Armenia, Albania, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico for showing national rates of refugees that have not decreased. 1 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

11 Map 1: Evolution of the average number of refugees according to their country s security situation between AVERAGE NUMBER OF REFUGEES 2,5, 1,, 5, EVOLUTION IN THE PERIOD Increasing REFUGEES Stagnant Variable Decreasing Source: Own preparation Infograf: Esteva&Estêvão EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 11

12 DISPLED Map 2: Evolution of the average number of displaced persons according to their country s security situation between AVERAGE DISPLED 2,5, 1,, 5, EVOLUTION IN THE PERIOD Increasing Variable Stagnant Decreasing Source: Own preparation Infograf: Esteva&Estêvão 12 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

13 To conclude this first part of the analysis of people that have necessarily left their homes for various reasons related to security, we must analyze the average numbers of internally displaced persons countries for which the UNHCR provides statistics. We will keep in mind whether the predominant security situation has been one of conflict, tension or neither. As a starting point, let us point out that between 23 and 214 there has been an annual average of almost 24 million (23,849,646) displaced persons in a total of 41 countries. The noteworthy countries are those with more than one million displaced people: Syria, Colombia, Iraq, DRC, Sudan, South Sudan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Somalia. Practically all of the countries in table 2 in conflict or tension maintain elevated numbers of displaced persons during the IP. To conclude, in this part of the analysis we identify nearly 89 countries with relevant rates of refugees and 41 with relevant rates of internally displaced people between 23 and 214. Of these countries, 65 have maintained security situations of tension and/or conflict in the larger part of the twelve years of the study (32 being in conflict and 33 in tension). The other 25 are incorporated into the analysis for their having a minimum of 4-5 thousand refugees, 65% of whom come from countries in conflict and 8% from those in tension. The rest, despite 15% not having recurrent situations of conflict or tension, show volumes of refugees in a number that lead us to consider that their living situation is not yet fully normalized. On the other hand, all countries with internally displaced persons have been included in the study because this indicator is considered an anomaly resulting from an unresolved conflict that points to instability in the country in question. We can see that 87% of countries with internally displaced persons have been in conflict most of the time between 23 and 214 and 7% have been in tension. Only another 6% (nine countries) do not show trends of permanent tension or conflict but still have significant annual averages of displaced persons. 2.2 Countries with significant situations of security, refugees or displaced persons Next, we will make a selection of destinations with particularly remarkable scenarios regarding refugees, displaced persons and conflict or tension. As a result, countries in conflict with indicators of declining populations of refugees and displaced persons have been excluded (Algeria, India, Indonesia, Israel, Moldova and Thailand). We do include Russia and Turkey, as they are considered countries in conflict and still have high numbers of refugees and/or displaced persons, although the trend of these populations is declining. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 13

14 Table 1: Main countries with refugees and displaced persons according to security situation Country Security Situation Average Number of Refugees Evolution in the period Average Number of IDP Evolution in the period Average Number of Refugees + IDP Syrian Arab Republic conflict 63,37 increasing 5,389,933 increasing 5,992,97 Colombia conflict 249,551 increasing 3,372,23 increasing 3,621,574 Afghanistan conflict 2,443,487 stagnant 334,96 increasing 2,778,447 Iraq conflict 1,82,563 decreasing 1,797,79 variable 2,88,353 Dem. Rep. of the Congo conflict 453,12 stagnant 1,969,578 increasing 2,422,59 Sudan conflict 566,499 stagnant 1,446,323 increasing 2,12,821 Somalia conflict 713,67 increasing 1,84,68 stagnant 1,797,747 Nigeria conflict 25,2 variable 1,188, increasing 1,213,2 Pakistan conflict 59,616 variable 95,243 variable 964,858 South Sudan conflict 24,423 variable 551,775 increasing 756,198 Ukraine conflict 6,762 increasing 823, increasing 883,762 Uganda conflict 16,56 decreasing 712,817 decreasing 728,873 Azerbaijan tension 81,879 decreasing 69,958 stagnant 691,837 Myanmar - 35,234 increasing 196,722 variable 51,956 Sri Lanka conflict 127,926 stagnant 292,531 decreasing 42,457 Central African Republic conflict 143,421 increasing 268,922 increasing 412,343 Serbia tension 17,197 decreasing 232,63 stagnant 42,8 Russian Federation conflict 14,317 decreasing 151,67 decreasing 255,924 Kenya tension 7,273 stagnant 363, stagnant 37,273 Ivory Coast conflict 52,35 variable 289,135 variable 341,17 Burundi conflict 25,668 decreasing 58,339 variable 39,7 Georgia tension 9,227 variable 249,186 stagnant 258,413 Yemen, Rep. conflict 1,94 increasing 252,663 increasing 254,63 Mali conflict 38,144 increasing 194,167 variable 232,311 Eritrea - 218,99 variable - 218,99 Chad conflict 49,37 stagnant 11,4 decreasing 159,437 China tension 167,572 increasing - 167,572 Turkey conflict 157,728 decreasing - 157,728 Lebanon conflict 14,314 decreasing 9, decreasing 14,314 Libya conflict 2,674 increasing 142,425 increasing 145,99 Kyrgyz Republic tension 2,797 stagnant 21,133 variable 23,93 Philippines conflict 866 variable 112, increasing 112,866 Rwanda tension 91,441 variable - 91,441 Nepal conflict 4,754 increasing 5, decreasing 54,754 Timor-Leste tension 76 decreasing 58,425 decreasing 58,51 Zimbabwe - 17,285 variable 43,75 variable 6,36 Ethiopia conflict 69,169 increasing - 69,169 Mauritania tension 35,365 stagnant - 35,365 Haiti tension 24,545 increasing - 24,545 8,625,967 23,362,412 31,988,379 82% 94% 9% Average Number of Refugees ,493,887 24,942,168 35,436,55 14 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

15 Similarly, the table excludes countries in tension with downward shifts in their rates of refugees and those that, even with high averages of refugees (annexes 1 and 2), do not have displaced persons. We consider that a country that has had no internally displaced person during the 12-year period studied owes its statistics of refugees to past conflicts. The countries in tension that have been excluded for their clearly declining rates of refugees or for their lack of displaced persons are Angola, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Cambodia, Cyprus, Equatorial Guinea, Laos and Tajikistan. The countries in tension that are included in the analysis, despite having smaller numbers of refugees, are those that show an upward trend and have generally stagnant situations of security between The final detail can be observed in table 1 and in the table in annex 3 which lists the countries whose initial results called into question the relationship between refugees, displaced persons and the situation of conflict or tension that is explored in this chapter 1. The 39 selected countries are ranked from highest to lowest according to their sum of refugees and displaced persons and their security situation during the IP. While all deserve a critical analysis of the european arms exports received during this period, some are especially critical for their combination of all the factors that should be taken into account during the export authorization process. We are referring to those that are in situations of conflict and that offer growing or constant rates of refugees and internally displaced persons. The countries that meet this criteria are Syria, Colombia, Afghanistan, DRC, Sudan, Somalia, Ukraine, CAR, Yemen and Libya. Those countries that have sustained situations of conflict or tension and have also shown constant, growing, or variable trends in their quantities of refugees or displaced persons make up another relevant group. The states with these characteristics are Nigeria, South Sudan, Myanmar, Mali and the Philippines. The analysis must include a third group of those countries that show indicators of conflict or tension prevailing in the period and that have varying and/or decreasing changes in their numbers of refugees and displaced persons. This is the case in Iraq, Pakistan, Kenya, Côte d Ivoire and Burundi. 1. This criteria leads us to exclude the list of deeply entrenched conflicts in the Western Sahara and Palestine, because in both cases the destinations do not import european arms more than marginally. We will also examine countries that experienced generally constant scenarios of conflict and tension, but whose number of people forced to leave their homes has not shown clear trends or fluctuations during the period. The evolution of these countries security situations during the period of analysis are thus variable and interpretable. We refer in this case to Georgia, Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mauritania, Haiti and Venezuela. Finally, there are countries that, despite having experienced scenarios of conflict or tension during the majority of the period of investigation, have reduced or unchanged internal and external population flows. These countries include Uganda, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Serbia, Russia, Chad, Turkey, Lebanon and East Timor. 2.3 European arms exported to countries in conflict or tension In this section we will use the information available in the annual reports on the European Union s Code of Conduct on Arms Exports of the Official Journal of the European Union to assess the volume of european arms exports and to identify the main exporters and recipients of these arms. From this point on, we will examine the value of both the realized and authorized exports (those arms exports effectively carried out and the transfers that have yet to happen but have approved licenses) because while the EU provides in depth information about their authorized exports, existing data on realized exports is scarce and practically absent for some of the largest exporter member countries in the EU. For example, the United Kingdom has not reported its realized exports since 22 and Germany has not done so since 27. In any case, we will continue with our analysis that aims to identify the main trends in the sale and type of arms exported from Europe while remaining conscious of the divergences that exist between data from national reports and data from the joint report of the EU. The arms exports that have information available from the member states of the EU for the period of have reached a total of in authorized licenses, and in realized exports 11. The average percentage of authorized exports that have been effectively carried out during the period is 26%. 11. The data used is available in the annual reports on arms exports of the EU. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 15

16 Graph 1: The Value of Authorized and Realized EU Arms Exports , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: Authorized Realized Table 2: EU arms exports to countries in conflict or tension Authorized Realized Exportations to Countries in Conflict 64,849,41,932 2,855,172,728 % conflico 15% 18% Exportations to Countries in Tension 57,632,97,565 16,426,288,32 % tension 13% 14% Total conflict+tension 122,481,949,497 37,281,461,48 % conflict+tension 29% 31% Total exportations 453,167,283, ,18,62,448 Source: Own preparation Of the total value of European exports authorized between 23 and 214, 29% or million was destined for countries in situations of conflict or tension during the entire period. The value of realized exports during the IP was at least million euros, which is equivalent to 31% of total exports. A more detailed analysis reveals that more arms have been exported to countries in conflict than to countries in tension, but the difference is minimal. 15% of authorized exports and 18% of realized exports of the total sale of european arms have been destined for countries in armed conflict, while 13% of authorizations and 14% of realized exports have been sent to places in security situations of tension. This highlights the consistent sale of armaments to places that have been in armed conflict or tension during all the years of the analysis period or have reached a state of conflict by 214 over several years. The following 3 countries meet this criteria: India, Turkey, Pakistan, Algeria, Indonesia, Israel, Russia, Thailand, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Nigeria, Colombia, the Philippines, Yemen, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Chad, Sri Lanka, Mali, Ivory Coast, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Burundi, Moldova, Somalia, Central African Republic, Nepal, South Sudan, and for some years even Iran and Syria. Thirty countries have received weapons from some EU member state at a time when they could have been used in armed conflict. In no case has importing armaments made the situation of conflict totally disappear, and only in 8 cases of the 3 (Israel, Indonesia, Lebanon, Chad, Sri Lanka, Ivory Coast, Uganda and Nepal) have arms imports eased the situation of conflict to one of tension.. 16 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

17 Map 3: Destinations of authorized exports by member states of the EU in conflict or tension between SECURITY SITUATION Conflict Tension VOLUME OF AUTHORIZED EXPORTS More than 5, M 1, to 5, M 1 to 1, M Less then 1 M Source: Own preparation Infograf: Esteva&Estêvão EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 17

18 Map 4: Destinations of realized exports by member states of the EU in conflict or tension between SECURITY SITUATION Conflict Tension VOLUME OF REALIZED EXPORTS More than 5, M 1, to 5, M 1 to 1, M Less then 1 M Source: Own preparation Infograf: Esteva&Estêvão 18 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

19 In certain countries with tension that were not considered to be in armed conflict, importation of weapons has persisted despite the worsening security situation of the country. These instances include Turkey, Pakistan, Yemen, Ethiopia, Mali, Syria, Burundi, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Libya, too, continued to sell armaments in its warlike years, and since the outbreak of Ukraine s civil war, their importation of european arms has multiplied by five times. On a second controversial note, we find that destinations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, China, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Peru, Georgia, Bahrain, Cyprus, Angola, Uzbekistan, Serbia, Bangladesh, Kenya, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Djibouti, Guinea Equatorial Guinea, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bolivia, Niger, Cambodia, Rwanda, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Guinea, Haiti, East Timor, Lao and Guinea Bissau have consistently imported arms despite knowledge of permanent situations of tension in the countries, which has sometimes exacerbated the tension or conflict, as in the case of two of the major importers of European armaments: Saudi Arabia and Egypt. On the other hand, Ecuador, Turkmenistan and Cameroon are opposite cases. As their importation of armaments has continued, the tension in these countries has continued to improve over the last years of the analysis. It should also be mentioned that the EU has not authorized arms sales to North Korea, Myanmar, Fiji and Zimbabwe, nor has it authorized sales to Tajikistan, Belarus and Eritrea during the last year of this study. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 19

20 3. European arms that foster conflicts which generate refugees and displaced persons The sale of arms to each of the identified countries may have had divergent effects on the evolution of their states of conflict, which, according to our research approach, is one of the main reasons that people flee from their homes in search of safer areas. We will analyze the relationship between arms exports to these countries and the evolution of their security situation based on the following three indicators: the country s situation of conflict/tension, its rates of refugees/internally displaced persons and the value of arms it imports. We also aim to determine whether the EU should be held accountable for their decisions on the authorization/exportation of arms to places with clearly unstable conditions. In this section, we will focus on analyzing the 39 specifically identified countries that, because of their characteristics in terms of the aforementioned indicators, make them especially relevant in determining whether imports of european arms have worsened their situation of security. Finally, we will focus on the 26 major European arms importers with significant indicators of conflict and flows of refugees/displaced persons while identifying the EU Member States that export the greatest values of arms to these destinations. 3.1 Particularly controversial arms importers based on their situations of instability As a first step in this phase of the analysis, we selected the forty states that collectively generate 82% of global refugees and 94% of internally displaced persons. Regarding the value of European exports destined for some of these countries, we will refer to 8.1% of authorizations and 9.2% of realized exports (recalling the lack of information provided by both the United Kingdom and by Germany on this matter). In any case, we can conclude that in the period , at least 36,714 million euros of European armaments were authorized and 1,92 million euros were exported to forty destinations where the security situation and its population flows indicated that these arms could be used in ongoing conflict. As for the evolution of the conflict, 16 of the mentioned countries have experienced worsening situations of security (advancing from no conflict to tension or from tension to armed conflict ). In another 16, the security situation has not improved despite consistent importations of arms. Finally, in eight of the destinations, the security situation did improve. Below we can see which of these countries received the highest values of European armament. 2 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

21 Volume of authorized exports More than 5, M 1, to 5, M 1 to 1, M Less than 1 M EVOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT Permanent armed conflict Permanent tension From armed conflict to tension From tension to armed conflict From no conflict to tension EVOLUTION IN REFUGEES AND DISPLED Worsens Doesn t improve Improves Variable Map 5: Destinations of european arms exports and the evolution of armed conflicts and populations of refugees/displaced persons. Font: Elaboració pròpia Infograf: Esteva&Estêvão EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 21

22 As we can see from the forty significant countries in terms negative evolutions of their security situation, 11 of them (Nigeria, Pakistan, Yemen, Mali, China, Turkey, Libya, Ethiopia, Venezuela, Ukraine And Mauritania) have received large amounts of European armament of great economic value and all have suffered from escalating violence. Another group of countries (Myanmar, RCA, Burundi and Zimbabwe) has also experienced worsening situations of security and has received European armaments, but in relatively small amounts. However, the scale of the sale of arms to these countries should not be overlooked because every recipient has a complex political situation in terms of internal democracy, and the type of weaponry that they import is generally low cost. Nine countries have been major importers of European armaments and their situation has remained in a general state conflict. This is the case for Colombia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Russia, Kenya, Georgia and the Philippines. Other destinations with relatively low values of imports (between 2 million and 1 million ), that should still be considered based on the type of weaponry they import, the degree of of deterioration or perpetuation of their conflicts, and their high numbers of refugees and displaced peoples are Syria, DRC and Sudan. Sudan and South Sudan appear to be especially sensitive destinations despite their officially low volumes of imported armament. These two countries combine situations of unimproved armed conflict with very high numbers of refugees and displaced people that continue to grow. Uganda, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Nepal, East Timor and Haiti, on the other hand, all have clearly decreasing trends of refugees and improving situations of conflict despite their significant importation of european arms. Their volumes of arms import are not homogenous, and while imports are practically nonexistent in the first three cases (principally in Lebanon, but also in Sri Lanka and Uganda), the value of european arms exports to the other countries is significant. In any case, it appears that at this level of analysis arms imports do not negatively affect the security of these countries. It is worth including a series of cases that do generate suspicion about the relationship between conflict evolution, rates of refugees/displaced peoples and arms exportations. For example, the figures of arms imports in Côte d Ivoire and Chad are not lower, but their security situation continues to improve while their volumes of refugees and displaced persons have varying trends. It should be noted that in Côte d Ivoire the average number of refugees and displaced persons is very high (341,) and Chad has an insignificant number. Eritrea and Kyrgyzstan, where the situation of conflict has not improved, the numbers of refugees and displaced persons are constant in Eritrea and variable in Kyrgyz, but do not indicate any downward trend and exports of european armaments are low. 3.2 European Arms to places in conflict with significant volumes of refugees and displaced persons and continually worsening situations of security In this more exhaustive analysis of European arms exports to particularly controversial places, we will focus exclusively on destinations where the security situation has worsened while the number of refugees and displaced persons has not declined. 26 countries meet this criteria. In total these countries have received 9.3 billion in arms (with 33.6 billion in authorizations) and have accumulated millions of refugees and 27 million internally displaced persons on average in the IP. Table 3: Refugees, displaced persons and exports to countries in conflict or tension Average number of refugees in countries that import european arms 7,16,57 Average number of displaced persons in countries that import european arms 2,11,516 Authorized exports to countries in conflict or tension 33,611,695,362 Realized exports to countries in conflict or tension 9,326,186,891 Source: own preparation 22 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

23 In Table 4, we have selected 26 of the main destinations of European armament with significant flows of refugees and displaced persons. The impact of arms imports is clearly negative as shown by the aggravation or perpetuation of conflict in the regions. These 26 countries account for 7.4% of authorized exports and 7.8% of exports. This means 33,611 million in authorizations and 9,326 million in realized exports. In other words, between 7.4 and 7.8% of European armaments exports have been destined for places in worsening situations of armed conflicts or tension, and to places with vulnerable civilian populations demonstated by their significant rates of refugees and displaced persons. These 26 destinations for European arms exports have generated 75% of the average refugee and displaced persons of the period, which translates to 27 million people that have been forced from their homes in an effort to flee the armed violence in their country. Of these, only Russia, Turkey and Zimbabwe do not show significant increases in their population flows as a result of insecurity. The rest show either increasing or variable trends in their rates of refugees and displaced persons and always maintain large numbers of people forced to live outside their places of origin. Table 4: Especially controversial importers of european arms Country Average Refugees + Displaced Authorized Exports Realized Exports Value of arms Exports Evolution of conflict Syrian Arab Republic 5,992,97 Worsen 25,673,392 3,46,32 moderate De tensió a CA Worsen Colombia 3,621,574 Worsen 817,581,469 41,311,749 very high CA -permanent Stagnant Afghanistan 2,778,447 Worsen 1,355,844, ,146,296 very high CA -permanent Stagnant Iraq 2,88,353 Stagnant 2,222,413, ,382,262 very high CA -permanent Stagnant Congo, Dem. Rep. 2,422,59 Worsen 61,833,26 9,931,95 moderate CA -permanent Stagnant Sudan 2,12,821 Worsen 29,656,85 1,49,666 moderate CA -permanent Stagnant Nigeria 1,213,2 Worsen 916,944, ,72,197 very high De tensió a CA Worsen Pakistan 964,858?? 7,989,258,46 2,586,414,14 very high De tensió a CA Worsen Ukraine 883,762 Worsen 431,867,83 99,13,288 high De tensió a CA Worsen Azerbaijan 691,837 Improve 2,323,47,72 36,585,23 very high T- permanent Stagnant Myanmar 51,956 Worsen 2,67,743 37,3 low De tensió a CA Worsen Central African Republic 412,343 Worsen 12,38,896 4,128,572 low De tensió a CA Worsen Serbia 42,8 Improve 28,38,862 6,744,475 very high T- permanent Stagnant Russian Federation 255,924 Improve 2,413,531,34 519,416,261 very high CA -permanent Stagnant Kenya 37,273 Stagnant 167,737,134 68,61,361 very high T- permanent Stagnant Burundi 39,7 Improve 19,783,36 27,326 low De tensió a CA (variable) Worsen Georgia 258,413 Variable 778,633, ,624,35 very high T- permanent Stagnant Yemen, Rep. 254,63 Worsen 356,985, ,932,399 very high De tensió a CA Worsen Mali 232,311 Worsen 125,159,71 47,949,17 very high De tensió a CA Worsen China 167,572 Worsen 3,255,58,557 1,45,24,26 very high De tensió a CA Worsen Turkey 157,728 Improve 8,18,932,384 2,57,436,728 very high De tensió a CA Worsen Libya 145,99 Worsen 1,27,64, ,437,56 very high De no conflicte a CA Worsen Philippines 112,866 Worsen 489,332,957 4,723,7 high CA -permanent Stagnant Zimbabwe 6,36 Variable 26,338 1,5 low De no conflicte a Tensió Worsen Ethiopia 69,169 Worsen 22,265,128 61,888,914 very high De tensió a CA Worsen Mauritania 35,365 Stagnant 89,226,794 3,623,51 high De no conflicte a Tensió Worsen Source: own preparation EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 23

24 In the following analysis of the data in table 6, we have selected recipients of European armaments from 23 to 214 based on the existence of conflict/tension and refugees/displaced persons in the regions. We identify that arms have been sold habitually from Europe to 26 countries of the Middle East, Sub Saharan Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Central and Pacific Asia and Latin America in significant volumes, all having been in conflict and having experienced worsening security during the period. A more detailed analysis is provided below. 24 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

25 Middle East: European weapons fuel the high level of conflict in the region Figure 2: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Irak and Yemen IRAK VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES YEMEN VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6. GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) Of the 26 especially controversial recipients of arms based on their populations of refugees or internally displaced people, 3 of them (Syria, Iraq and Yemen) are situated in the middle east which is a region with an especially high level of conflict. This region is made up of 14 countries: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria, Qatar, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, United Arab Emirates and Iraq, five of which are in permanent conflict (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Israel and Lebanon) and three of which are in tension (Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain). In other words, of the 14 countries that make up the region, more than half are in states of conflict or tension. This gives us an idea of the gravity of the security situation in the Middle East, where there exists an average of 1,81,5 refugees and 7,53,389 displaced persons. This represents 17% and 31% of the world s average refugees and displaced persons respectively during the period, even without including the 225,698 Palestinian refugees from the region. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 25

26 Given the context of violence and conflict present throughout Middle East, it is obvious that selling arms to any of its countries can have serious consequences on security. The Middle East is also home to the conflicts that have generated the highest figures of refugees and displaced persons in the world, and the security situation has worsened here rather than improved. Nevertheless, some of these countries are among the main buyers EU arms. At the top of the list is Saudi Arabia, with a total of million in authorized and realized exports, followed closely by Egypt with a value of million and then Israel and Iraq with 633 million and 484 million respectively. Other noteworthy locations are Bahrain, Yemen and Lebanon. Fighting in Yemen began in 24. Between 24-25, we noted that arms exports were 16,745,428 euros the first year and 22,833,954 euros the second. Warships and aircrafts from France were the one of the categories of exports. Despite a ceasefire in February 21, the situation in the area remained volatile and we can see an increase in exports by 13,123,565 euros with Bulgaria (89,117,99 euros) and Czech Republic (12,524,982 euros) taking the lead in exports of ammunition, small arms, light weapons, explosive devices, military vehicles and tanks. While it is true that exports have declined in the last years of the conflict, continuing to export arms to a country where all parties in the armed conflict commit recurrent violations of international law calls accountability into question. Such violations include the bombing of hospitals and other infrastructure resulting in numerous civilian casualties. Conflict in Yemen has worsened over the IP, and particularly during the surge in 214. Yemen has increased numbers of refugees and far greater rates of internally displaced persons. The sale of arms to this country totals 552 million, and the years 29 and 21 stand out with 1 million of authorized exports and 13 million of realized exports respectively. Of those exports effectively carried out in 21, the main categories of weaponry correspond to explosive devices worth nearly 43 million euros and ammunition worth more than 39 million, followed by small arms worth more than 11 million, and lightweight weaponry and artillery worth 4.5 million. The fact that this type of weaponry constitutes the majority of exported material is even more controversial because it is armament that aggravates conflict and makes armed violence among the civilian population more feasible. Iraq reached high figures of authorized and realized exports and demonstrated an increasing trend during the IP. As for refugees, the trend appears to be decreasing while that for displaced persons is variable. The weaponry includes a significant amount of light weapons, ammunition and explosives. After the 23 military occupation in Iraq, the country has experienced an environment of constant violence. However, this did not prevent arms exports to Iraq from increasing in 25, 29 and 214. For the first year (62,331,99), Poland was the main exporter with 51,739,955 in small arms, vehicles, tanks and aircrafts. In 29, exports reached 1,483,97 euros, Italy being the main exporter of unidentified defense material worth 83,525, euros. Following the conclusions of the EU Foreign Affairs Council in mid-214, it was agreed that some Member States would support the Iraqi Ministry of Defense by supplying military equipment due to the emergence of DAESH. In that same year, exports reached 123,237,635 euros with Bulgaria as the main exporter (8,118,78) of explosive devices, light weapons, artillery, vehicles, tanks and firing equipment. This significant resolution led Spain to re-authorize the sale of ammunition, explosive devices and military vehicles and tanks. 26 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

27 The case of Syria Figure 3: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Syria SYRIA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6. GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) 11. ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data Of all the countries in the middle east and in the world, Syria has the gravest conditions of instability in terms of its average refugees and displaced persons and situation of conflict. In this regard, it should be noted that the EU has maintained arms exports to Syria and reported artificially low official figures. Some data stands out while analyzing the period of arms sales to Syria, like the steady continuation of export authorizations and a lesser but still constant realization of exports during the entire period. The year after conflict broke out in 211, the EU authorized its largest sale of weapons to Syria during the IP. It amounted to 6,943,49 which, albeit a moderate figure, corresponds to military vehicles and tanks. The year 213 also stands out with a figure of 4,558,916 in authorized exports of new vehicles, tanks and chemical agents. In terms of realized exports, the highest volume was transferred in 29 with a value of 2,711,312. The weaponry included in this transfer is specified only as belonging to the miscellaneous category. The authorizations of arms exports to Syria in the IP have reached the value of 25,673,392 euros. Realized exports account for 3,46,32 euros of the total and include the following categories of military material: aircrafts (267, euros in 25 and 215, euros in 26) by the Czech Republic and military vehicles and tanks from Ireland for 2,45. However, the largest export was made by Italy in 29 for an amount of 2,711,312 euros with unspecified categories of military material. In 212, a year after the outbreak of the conflict and the beginning of the forced mobilization of 729,22 refugees and 2,16,5 internally displaced persons, we observe an increase in sales authorizations of 6,943,49 euros. During this year, Germany and the United Kingdom authorized the sale of 6,935,429 euros and 7,62 euros in military vehicles and tanks respectively. In 213, although authorizations fell to 4,558,916 euros, the number of refugees increased by 2,468,332 and the number of displaced persons increased by 6,52,8. The categories of material authorized in that year were vehicles and military tanks (4,362,57 euros) and chemical agents (196,49 euros) by Germany. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 27

28 The situation of armed conflict in the country makes it likely that arms exports to this region are in violation of criteria stated in the Common Position. The high risk of diversion of imported military material into the hands of DAESH or other armed group is specifically in contradiction with criterion 1, which problematizes the continued authorization of armaments by member countries like Germany (which exported chemical agents and military vehicles in 212 and 213) and Finland (which exported armor and helmets 214). Elevated arms exports figures to countries with unstable situations of security: Pakistan, China, Turkey, Iraq, Russia, Afghanistan and Colombia Figure 4: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia and Turkey CHINA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PAKISTAN VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES AFGHANISTAN VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

29 RUSSIA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES TURKEY VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6. GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) Of the 26 countries under analyzation, there are 8 that stand out for their high volume of EU arms imports and for their stagnant or worsening security situations. These countries are Pakistan, Turkey, China, Iraq Russia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and Colombia. In terms of refugee populations and security situations, Pakistan is the most controversial destination for European weapons. Although this country has been in conflict since 24, has experienced a worsening security situation and also has an average of 964,858 refugees and displaced persons, both authorized and realized exports have remained constant throughout the entire IP. In the data collected in the annual report of the European Union, it appears that the years with largest quantities of arms exports to Pakistan span from 26 to 212 with Sweden, France and Italy as the largest exporting countries. Of the 26 controversial recipients, Turkey is the second largest buyer of EU arms and while its refugee population has decreased, its conflict has worsened. Turkey, moreover, is at the gates of the Middle East, situating it in a zone with high levels of conflict. The main conflict that characterizes the Turkish security situation is that related to Kurdistan, which resurfaced during the period These years are also marked by elevated arms exports by France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 29

30 Of the euros exported during the period of study, 214 stands out as the year when the most exports were made by EU member countries. The value of of military material totaled 417,271,654 euros, made up of military aircrafts, firing equipment, ammunition, warships. During that year, Spain also became the country that exported the most weapons to Turkey with a value totaling 243,673,494 euros in aircrafts, warships and chemical and biological agents. Also significant are the exports of firearms, ammunition, bombs, firing systems, and warships made by Italy, France, Spain and Germany during the period of peace negotiations ( ). China is one of the main buyers of EU arms in tension and the third largest buyer of arms of the 26 especially controversial countries identified here. It also has a high average of 167,572 displaced persons that shows an increasing trend, and has experienced an evolution of conflict that evolved from tension into armed conflict during the IP. Between Europe and China there is a dynamic arms trade that amounts to 3,255,58,557 euros during the period , of which 1,45,24,26 euros were successfully exported. Although exports from one year to another are consistently high, it is only from 212 on that we begin to see exports rise above 1 million euros. Among the countries that exported the most were France, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and they exported the following military products: firing equipment, aircrafts, ships, vehicles and war tanks. Arms exports to Russia indicated in the report by the European Union during our IP show that the most notable increase happened in 214. Russian imports totaled 128,571,911 euros and has France (81,67. euros), Italy (26,345,4 euros) and Bulgaria (1,458,517 euros) as the main exporters of weaponry such as aircrafts and military vehicles. These exports were made in decree of the EU sanctions that regulate arms imports and exports to/from Russia because of their conflict with Ukraine and the risk of exported material ending up in Syria. After 15 years of being in a central stage of the War on Terror, by the end of 214 Afghanistan became the country with the second largest number of refugees after Syria (2.5 million). Bulgaria, Romania and the Czech Republic have been the highest exporting EU member countries, selling materials such as explosive devices, small arms, ammunition and military aircrafts. Between 29-21, one of the most violent periods since the beginning of the Afghanistan s military occupation in 21, France, Germany and the United Kingdom authorized sales of firearms, military vehicles, tanks, aircrafts, firing equipment, ammunition and technology. During the period, Afghanistan presents billion-dollar arms purchases, a constant number of refugees, a growing rate of displaced persons and an unimproved situation of armed conflict that began in 21. Exports made to the country are constant during the IP despite the clearly unstable conditions, and two years stand out with regard to their values of authorized exports. The first is 27, with 329 million in categories such as vehicles and tanks, explosives, small arms, ammunition and light weapons and artillery. The other year is 211, with 465 million in the same categories. Colombia stands out as the country with the highest number of refugees and displaced persons after Syria, with an average of 3,372,23 people. The majority are internally displaced, indicating that there is a high level of internal violence leading to displacements in the country. In addition, both the numbers of refugees and displaced persons have increased during the IP. As far as exports, authorizations follow an increasing trend while realized exports are variable from year to year. The year 29 is noteworthy as it has the highest value of authorized exports in the period for a total of 15 million, 7 of which are light weapons and artillery, and 62 million of which are warships. The arms exports to Colombia comprise all categories, the largest being warships followed by light weapons and artillery. 3 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

31 Forgotten conflicts with little media attention in Sub-Saharan Africa: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Kenya, Burundi, Mali, Ethiopia, Mauritania and Zimbabwe Figure 5: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Mauritania, Mali, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Sudan, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Burundi and Zimbabwe MAURITANIA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES MALI 5.. VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES NIGERIA VALUE OF EXPORTS EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE NUM. OF REFUGEES

32 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES SUDAN VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES ETHIOPIA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

33 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES KENYA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES BURUNDI VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

34 ZIMBABWE VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6. GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) 11. ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data Between 23 and 214, EU states authorized sales of armaments worth 61,833,26 euros to DRC, of which 9,931,95 euros were effectively carried out. In 23 the Czech Republic exported unknown military material worth 992, euros to DRC. Although it is true that sales after that year were lower, there was an increase during 212 and 213. For 212 realized exports rose by 1,499,172 euros with Bulgaria and France as the main exporters of explosive devices, light weapons and technology. In 213, sales were quadrupled by the same countries, resulting in a total worth 7,61,778 euros in the same categories of material and in an unspecified category. It should be noted that this year the categories of weaponry are most controversial, such as 3.7 million euros in explosives, 1.8 million in small arms, 1.4 in ammunition and 9 thousand in light weapons. As we have said before, it is important to note that there are countries with moderate or low volumes of exports whose categories of weaponry make them nonetheless controversial. These weapons are those that have the greatest civilian impact and that allow large quantities of arms to be acquired without large investments. The case of DRC is especially serious because of its decade long and extremely violent conflict that shows no signs of improvement and generates increasing levels of displaced persons. The increase in exports between resulted in an escalation of violence between the Congolese armed forces and rebel groups in the east of the country, contributing to the generation of more than 5, refugees and almost 3 million internally displaced persons. Another long-standing conflict with no signs of improvement and serious humanitarian violations exists in Sudan, which imported a total value of 31 million worth of arms and demonstrates a trend of growing displaced populations. The trend of exports, however, is decreasing, especially in the category of vehicles and tanks. Thus, Sudan is a case where there was clear intention and materialization of european arms exports in the beginning of the IP but shows tendencies toward ending by the end of the period. This trend is accompanied by increasing flows of refugee and displaced populations and a permanent context of armed conflict in some regions of the country. Sudan recorded the largest number of arms imported from Europe in 26 (565,349 ) in vehicles, tanks, armor and other unknown materials from Slovakia, France and Germany, and in 28 for a value of 293,671 euros in vehicles and military tanks by the Czech Republic. Since 25 there has been a steady increase in Sudan s number of internally displaced persons which reached 2,115,5 by the end of 214. Nigeria imported 1,1 million worth of european 34 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

35 arms, showing some constancy in authorized exports and consistent increases in realized exports. Authorizations were highest in 214, with a total of 21 million. Authorizations of ammunition were worth 81 million, followed by 21 million in explosives and 5.6 in light weapons and artillery. Nigeria registered its largest number of weapons between 27 and 29. In the first year, 23,947,579 euros were imported, with Italy and France being the main exporters of military equipment. The same scenario occurred in 28, with 36,798,5 euros in the same category. Since the internal conflict with Boko Haram entered a rapid spiral of violence in 29, France, Britain and Bulgaria increased their arms authorizations to Nigeria. In that same year Italy became the main exporter (43,944,691 euros) in the miscellaneous category, followed by France with 12,677,555 euros in the same category. During 214, the Czech Republic has been the country with the highest exports to Nigeria (3,865,811 euros) in ammunitions, vehicles, tanks, aircraft and armor categories. The result has been a clear increase in the number of refugees and an alarming number of IDPs in 214, exceeding one million people who were forced from their homes. In the Central African Republic, authorizations stand out in 21 at a value of 4.7 million and categories of weaponry such as vehicles and tanks, 2.8 million in explosive devices, 2.5 in ammunition and almost 1 million in small arms. This country has been experiencing a new phase of armed conflict since 27, but prior to this outbreak Slovakia and France were the countries with the largest authorizations and exports of ammunition, armor and aircrafts to the region. In 21, Portugal became the country with the highest value of realized exports of military aircrafts worth a total of 2,685,623 euros to CAR. This same export was repeated in 212 and in 213. In 214, Finland was the only country that exported in the armor category for a value of 91,416 euros. In that same year the United Kingdom and Germany have the most authorizations made for vehicles, tanks and military explosives. Small values of exports should not be misleading since in many cases the authorizations are for significant quantities of small arms with low unit costs. The result of CAR s continual arms imports has been a large number of refugees and displaced persons in an environment of growing insecurity. Kenya is another country that has been predominantly in tension during our IP with no view of improvement and with consistent increases in refugees and displaced persons. Kenya has played a leading role throughout the analysis period with EUR worth of European arms licenses and realized exports worth euros. In 27, euros were exported in ammunition and small arms. In 28 exports amounted to euros by France mainly in the miscellaneous category. During the year 214, arms exports worth euros were carried out by the Czech Republic (1,342,511 euros for aircraft, ammunition and explosive devices), and Spain (748,25 euros in ammunition) and Italy (472,5 euros) in the miscellaneous category. The situation of tension has continued in Kenya, whose number of refugees and displaced persons stands at an average of 37 thousand and continues to increase. While Burundi has experienced an ultimately worsening situation of tension and conflict throughout the period, the refugee population has decreased while the displaced population has varied. European exports to Burundi show very inconsistent trends in authorizations, with large information gaps for several consecutive years. This may be due to the lack of information provided by the United Kingdom (which has not been reported since 22), but the UK does appear to be an important exporter to this country in regards to export license authorizations. The main export categories are ammunition, light weapons and artillery, although these materials have not been imported in large volumes. Thus, Burundi has registered arms exports for a clearly reduced value of 27,326 euros compared to the 19,783,36 euros that appear in the EU reports on authorizations. During the period in which Burundi was still embroiled in an armed conflict, there are miscellaneous exports by Germany worth 11, in 25. While these export figures are not alarmingly high, the material exported is questionable; there have been authorizations for small arms, aircraft, ammunition and armor from France, Belgium and the United Kingdom during the tenure period from 27 to 21, and in 211 armed conflict erupted once again. The same spiral into war took place in the year 214, when there is recorded exports of light weapons, artillery and ammunition by Bulgaria. During the July-September quarter of 212 several armed groups increased their control in northern Mali, a country that has been marginalized and underdeveloped since colonial times. In 212, at a time when these armed groups were particularly active, arms exports by some of the EU Member States increased by EUR 13,346,14 in aircrafts, explosive devices (bombs, grenades, missiles), vehicles, tanks, light weapons, ammunition and unidentified categories with Bulgaria (13,21,774 euros) and France (135,24 euros) as the main exporters. In countries like Mali, whose internal armed conflict and instability have intensified in recent EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 35

36 years, we note that the highest authorizations of armaments took place in 213 and 214. In just 213, authorizations amounted to euros, of which Germany, France and Bulgaria were the main establishers of licenses. Of this amount, only 9,276,598 euros were effectively exported in categories such as ammunition, aircrafts, small arms, light weapons and explosive devices. In 214, euros were authorized, with France in the lead with 54,43,176 euros in permits in vehicles and tanks as well as shooting equipment. Of those authorized in that year, only 7,951,232 euros were realized, with France, Portugal and Slovakia being the main exporters. Thus, Mali is another example of a country whose security situation has worsened during the IP, with growing rates of refugees and variable rates of displaced persons. The year 212 stands out as having the highest value of authorized exports (more than 13 million), of which 2.7 million are for explosive devices, 1.3 for small arms and 1.2 for light weapons and artillery. Ethiopia is another country whose situation worsens during the IP, evolving from tension to armed conflict with a growing average of refugees. Noteworthy are the authorizations made in 213, where the highest authorization of the period was made for 35 million with more than 2.7 million in ammunition, followed by aircraft and electronic equipment. When armed conflict began in 27, the highest value of arms exports worth euros was made, with the Czech Republic and Bulgaria as the main exporters of simulation equipment, small arms, aircrafts, ammunition, firing equipment, military vehicles and tanks. France also exported material in the miscellaneous category. From this year until 214 exports decline, but Bulgaria and the Czech Republic continue to be the main players in the sale of military equipment to Ethiopia. An increasing number of refugees show how the deterioration of the country s security situation has affected the lives of its civilian population. Mauritania was the recipient of arms exports worth 3,623,51 euros during the IP. Bulgaria, France and Italy were the leading exporter countries and the main materials exported were firearms, ammunition and aircrafts. 214 has been the year with the most miscellaneous exports, worth a total of 12,367,3 euros by Italy and France. Mauritania has also experienced worsening conditions of security during the period, but has had a constant average of refugees and no displaced persons. Zimbabwe has also witnessed a deterioration of its security situation and has average numbers of refugees and displaced persons. Export figures to this country are very low, totaling a value of 27,838. It should be noted that the United Kingdom is one of the main exporters in authorizations to Zimbabwe, and data for the UK disappears after 22 causing us to face serious gaps in information. 36 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

37 Conflicts at the doors of Europe: Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia and Azerbaijan Figure 6: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia and Azerbaijan UKRAINE VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES SERBIA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES 3. GEORGIA VALUE OF EXPORTS 1.. NUM. OF REFUGEES AZERBAIJAN VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 37

38 In 214, Ukraine shifted from being a country in tension to one in armed conflict. Ukraine stands out for its increasing trend of refugees and displaced people which stands at an average of 883,762, falling just behind Pakistan yet without having such a long-standing conflict. Noteworthy is 214, where Ukraine imported arms worth 199 million in categories with high potential for impacting conflicts, like 23.9 million in explosives, 19 million worth of ammunition, 4 million in chemical agents, 2.2 million in small arms, and 1.2 in shooting equipment. In 211, realized exports totaled over 33 million, the third most exported category being 1.1 million for small arms followed by values of explosive devices and ammunition that do not exceed one million. As a result of the armed conflict in Ukraine, EU states increased the authorization of arms sales in 214 to 199,686,642, of which 18,85,368 were exported ammunition, vehicles, tanks, aircrafts, light weapons, small firing equipment, manufacturing equipment and technology. Among the main exporters were countries like Poland (9,81,38 euros); Austria (3,577,423 ), Czech Republic (2,124,3 ) and France (1,63, ). Spain is also noteworthy for its exports of small arms (shotguns and hunting rifles), on the grounds that the other countries of the European Union resuming their exports to Ukraine violated criterion 3 of the Common Position. Numbers of refugees and displaced people soared as a result of the high levels of violence in parts of Ukrainian territory. Years after the end of the Balkan war, Serbia remains in conditions of grave instability without any indication of improvement. The country s refugee population steadily decreases over the period of investigation while its displaced population remains constant. Exports over the period amounted to 34 million, with 214 having a total of 88.3 million in authorized exports. The primary category of exported material is 44 million in ammunition, followed by 8.3 million in small arms And 4.7 in explosives. After the end armed conflict in Serbia, the years were characterized by a period of internal political tensions. In 214, Bulgaria was the top exporting country to Serbia in categories such as ammunition, light weapons, explosives and artillery for the amount of 7,99,239 euros, followed by France for 1,23, euros in unknown military equipment. The other years with the highest rates of exportation were 29 and 21, totaling 18,35,832 euros and 13,999,429 euros respectively. In 29, the largest exporters were France (14,78,559) in the miscellaneous category and Bulgaria ( 1,592,927) in ammunition, small arms, and unknown military equipment. For 21, the main categories of exported materials were ammunition by Bulgaria and unknown material by France. Georgia is also a country with permanent tensions which contribute to an stagnant state of instability. The average number of refugees in the country is variable while the population of displaced persons remains constant. Authorized and realized exports during the period total 995 million with varying trends in each category. Noteworthy is the year 28, with 266 million in exports and a whopping sum of 172 million euros in ammunition, 52 million in explosive devices and 14.8 million in light weapons and artillery. 28 stands out for its figures of realized exports, with a total of 91 million euros in the categories of ammunition (56 million), explosive devices (25 million) and light weapons/artillery (3 million). In arms authorizations to Georgia between 23 and 214, 778,633,795 euros were registered, of which 216,624,35 euros were actually exported. From this period, Bulgaria ( 114,323,46) and the Czech Republic ( ) were the highest exporting countries to Georgia in the categories of ammunition, explosive devices, small arms and light weapons, military aircrafts, vehicles and tanks, armor, manufacturing equipment and military technology. The largest values of exports were recorded in 27 and 28. In 27, 62,433,659 euros was exported in the same arms categories, and during 28 the year that Georgia began armed conflict with Russia in the War of South Ossetia 91,5,334 euros were exported in ammunitions, explosives and weapons. Bulgaria was again the principal exporter, followed by Czech Republic. Azerbaijan has imported a value of million in authorized and realized European arms exports and is experiencing an unimproved state of tension with constant numbers of refugees and displaced persons. The volume of authorized and realized exports remains fairly low until the last year of our analysis, 214, when there is an increase in authorized exports of 2,236 million which is almost as much as every other year in the period combined. The trend for realized exports, however, remains constant and relatively low. During the period we find a considerable amount of exports in categories such as light weapons, small arms and explosives. Azerbaijan is in a state of unresolved conflict with periodic violations of the established ceasefire and high numbers of refugees and displaced persons. Given this context, 36,585,23 euros of arms were exported there in the period , the high- 38 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

39 est value being in 214 (11,65,7 euros). That year Bulgaria led with 5,395,768 euros ($6.16 million) in exports of ammunition, explosive devices and light weapons followed by Croatia with 2,443,6 euros in armor and Czech Republic with 1,915,663 euros in military aircrafts and small arms. The case of Libya Figure 7: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Libya LIBYA VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6. GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) 11. ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data Libya is also a particularly controversial case as it has gone from not being in conflict or in tension to a state of armed conflict in 211, with rising numbers of refugees and displaced persons. Despite its security situation, Libya is one of the largest importers of European arms. The most remarkable year is 21 just before the conflict erupted, when 293 million euros worth of arms authorizations were made in controversial categories 44.9 million in firing equipment, 41 in explosive devices, 6.9 in ammunition and almost 1 million in small arms. During the armed conflict in 211, France exported weapons of unknown material worth 87,37,35 euros. One year before the war, euros were exported, the main exporters being France (88,368,69 in unspecified categories) and Spain (11,247,98 ) in military imaging equipment and aircraft). After Gaddafi s death, Libya has remained immersed in a civil war which is sustained by a variety of militias that base their legitimacy largely on armed force. During 214 specifically, there has been a high level of violence in Libya due to clashes between anti-gaddafi sectors and supporters of the old regime and easy access to weapons in the country. In that year, Czech Republic and Spain were the main arms exporters. The former exported 299,51 in chemical and biological agents, while Spain exported chemical agents and armor elements worth 278,671. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 39

40 European arms in other conflicts in Asia: Myanmar and the Philippines Figure 8: Evolution of refugee/displaced populations and arms exports in Myanmar and the Philippines MYANMAR VALUE OF EXPORTS PHILIPPINES NUM. OF REFUGEES VALUE OF EXPORTS NUM. OF REFUGEES PRIMARY CATEGORIES OF ARMS 1. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS <2MM 2. SMOOTH-BORE WEAPONS >2MM 3. AMMUNITION 4. BOMBS, TORPEDOES, ROCKETS, MISSILES 5. FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6. GROUND VEHICLES 7. CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL TOXIC AGENTS 8. ENERGETIC MATERIALS (FUEL AND EXPLOSIVES) 9. VESSELS OF WAR 1. AIRCRAFTS ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 13. ARMOURED OR PROTECTED EQUIPMENT 14. EQUIPMENT FOR MILITARY TRAINING 15. IMAGING OR COUNTERMEASURE EQUIPMENT 22. TECHNOLOGY Arms categories 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 2, 21 have not been included because of their reduced or negligible presence Authorized arms exports Realized arms exports Refugees Internally displaced persons In a state of armed conflict In a state of tension Jump in data Source: Own preparation Infograf: Gerard Casadevall Bach (adapt. Esteva&Estêvão) Myanmar presents a complex internal situation that vacillates between tension and armed conflict during the period, with an increasing average of refugees and a variable population of displaced persons. Myanmar imports the second lowest value of EU arms after Zimbabwe, with only 2 million euros for imports of aircraft and armor. Although there were no arms exported to Myanmar during its period of armed conflict (27-214), according to the European Union report on arms exports, in 25 there was a sale of arms worth 37,3 euros in aircrafts by Poland. That same year, Poland also authorized a sale of military aircrafts worth 2,558,23 euros which is the biggest sale for this country during the IP. There was also a sale of armor authorized in 212 by the United Kingdom for a value of 49,72 euros. The Philippines has experienced a state of permanent conflict during the investigation period with no signs of improvement. The numbers of refugees in 4 EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE

41 the country are variable and the displaced population appears to grow. Arms exports to the Philippines, however, are significant: 52 million for the period with a rising trend, with authorizations reaching their peak in 214 with a figure of 297 million. During that year the main exported categories were explosive devices at 19.8 million, 15.7 million in ammunition, 9 in chemical agents, 7.9 in firing equipment and 2.7 in small arms. The Philippines has received exports worth 4,723,7 in the period between 23 and 214, 213 and 214 being the years of highest rates of exportation. In 213, there was an increase of 15,731,338 euros with Poland and Bulgaria as the main exporters of aircrafts, electronic equipment and explosive devices. In 214, there was 16,98,326 euros worth of military and explosive materials exported primarily by Italy and Bulgaria. EUROPEAN ARMS THAT FOSTER ARMED CONFLICTS. CONFLICTS THAT CAUSE REFUGEES TO FLEE 41