Croatia Cut to Junk by Moody s on Fiscal, External Risks By Michael Heath & Jasmina Kuzmanovic - Feb 1, :54 AM ET

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1 Croatia Cut to Junk by Moody s on Fiscal, External Risks By Michael Heath & Jasmina Kuzmanovic - Feb 1, :54 AM ET Croatia s credit rating was cut to junk by Moody s Investors Service, which cited a stalled recovery, lack of budget discipline and vulnerability to external shocks by the European Union s next member. The Balkan country s government bond rating was lowered to Ba1 from Baa3, the same level as Hungary and Ireland, Moody s said in a statement released in London today. Standard & Poor s cut Croatia to junk in December. Moody s also changed Croatia s outlook to stable from negative, saying the risk the government s fiscal position and debt will materially deteriorate any further is limited. The nation is in its second recession in two years amid austerity measures and an investment drought sparked by Europe s debt crisis. The government said Dec. 19 that the budget deficit will widen this year to 3.1 percent of economic output as the country repays debt and begins contributing to the EuropeanUnion s coffers. The government s capacity to re- balance the economy toward exports is intrinsically limited, Moody s said in the statement. The country s expected forthcoming EU accession in July 2013 is a positive development; however, the European environment and the government s reform inertia are likely to limit the benefits normally expected to arise. Croatia, a former Yugoslav republic set to join the EU in July, is in its second recession in two years amid austerity measures and an investment drought sparked by Europe s debt crisis. The government said Dec. 19 that the budget deficit will widen this year to 3.1 percent of economic output as the country repays debt and begins contributing to EU coffers. Dropping Croatia The downgrade will undo any good will that the EU accession would have generated amongst investors, Abbas Ameli- Renani, emerging- market strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said in an e- mailed response to questions. Croatia s composite rating has now been lowered to sub- investment, which will force a lot of investment funds that have a mandate for investment- grade only bonds to drop Croatia from their portfolios. The third major credit rating company, Fitch Ratings, in November changed its outlook for Croatia to negative from stable, while maintaining the lowest investment grade, BBB-.

2 Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic s Cabinet, which has vowed to reduce public spending and remove obstacles to investment, forecasts the economy will grow 1.8 percent this year as an expected 10 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in EU grants through 2020 boost investment. The International Monetary Fund in November said the economy will grow 0.75 percent this year, after shrinking 1.5 percent in Budget Review Finance Minister Slavko Linic said the the downgrade was not malicious judgment, but a wakeup call for the government. He pledged to review the budget in the spring and seek to raise revenue levels with improved tax policies and introduction of a property tax. he Cabinet also needs to continue state- asset sales and strengthen ngthen industrial production, he said. This is a very clear message, Linic said today in Zagreb, adding that his economic forecasts for the country will remain unchanged. We hope that this second downgrade will convince the public we need reforms. The yield on dollar- denominated notes due in March 2021 rose to percent today from percent yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Croatia s weak economy, external vulnerability and relatively high debt will make fiscal consolidation harder, Moody s said. The government s fiscal metrics are also weaker, with general government debt exceeding those of Baa3- rated countries, the company said. Soure: 01/croatia- cut- to- junk- by- moody- s- on- fiscal- weakness- external- risk.html

3 CEIZ Index (Jan'06- Dec'12) Interpreta(on of the CEIZ index up to December 2012 In December last year, the CEIZ index registered a decrease of 0.86 index points compared to the previous month, which was a finh consecu%ve drop of the monthly index values. This change points to an addi%onal slowdown of Croa%an economy in the last month of 2012, compared to the ac%vity in November and the third quarter The decline of index values in the last three months of the last year can lead to a consequent downturn of the seasonally adjusted GDP in the fourth quarter In the third quarter 2012, seasonally adjusted GDP experienced a slight and temporary rise of a 0.1 percent according to our es%mates, therefore the decline of the GDP in the fourth quarter points to the persistence of the recession started in the last quarter What is CEIZ? Coincident Economic Index of the Ins%tute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Ins%tute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide %mely informa%on on the current business cycle condi%on. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indica%ng the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model.

4 Economy con(nues to struggle Ins%tute of Economics, Zagreb published the latest issue of Croa%an Economic Outlook Quarterly (No. 53/January 2013). From this issue: Croa%an GDP declined by 1.9 percent year- on- year in the third quarter of 2012, which is the fourth consecu%ve decline in a row. Depressed personal consump%on and poor investments were the major factors behind the fall in overall ac%vity, while the posi%ve contribu%on of net exports prevented an even gloomier record. Although seasonally adjusted GDP for the third quarter indicated stagna%on compared to the previous quarter, which was largely due to the spending by foreign tourists, the high- frequency indicators for the fourth quarter pointed to the con%nua%on of nega%ve trends. Labor market situa%on was par%cularly worrying. Unemployment has recently rapidly increased, at a pace observed during the first wave of the crisis in early In spite of some fiscal consolida%on efforts, the overall policy response seems to have been inadequate and the economy has remained vulnerable to poten%al shocks, which led Standard & Poor s to downgrade Croa%a s credit ra%ng. In quest for the strategy to overcome current economic problems, the Government relies predominantly on large- scale public investments and makes addi%onal efforts to boost private investments.

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6 Unexpected statement Nobody who is normal wants to invest in Croatia, nor live in it. A moment of truth from the Economy Minister Ivan Vrdoljak Economy Minister Ivan Vrdoljak (HNS) did not even attempt to oppose them. Ahead of him in the hall of the Hotel Antunovic dozens of entrepreneurs who explained to him how impossible it is to do business in Croatia. This is the fourth economy minister with whom they are talking, and nothing ever changes. 'Bureaucracy and laws destroy any desire for investment and new jobs. "It is most difficult to do business in Croatia." "Too many obstacles." With all of the comments from members of HUP (Croatian Employers' Association) and many business owners who had a working lunch yesterday with the minister in the Hotel Antunovic, the minister fully agreed and promised absolutely nothing! On the contrary, said that it is quite expected that no one wants to invest and do business in Croatia. Yes, Croatia is 84 in the Doing Business rankings. Imagine a man who wants to invest in such a country. How can he?! What is wrong with him?! He would do that only in case, for some reason, he hates all the first 83 countries! - the minister said. It seems to me as if we wanted to get on the highway and ended up in a roundabout for years and driving in circles - said Ivica Mudrinić, head of HUP. Vrdoljak

7 responded that he has an amazing feeling that we built the highway, but ended up on the roundabout. For a short time we had the feeling that we were improving, that we were rising, but now it's all fallen. Our competitive advantage is in our smart people. I put the word competition in front investment. For that reason in June we are going to amend the employment law. If you do not have an emotional tie that binds you to a place, county, city, who among us remain in this country? - Wondered Vrdoljak. Embarrassment caught him, he says, when he just recently looked at the long list of benefits employers must pay for. After that the employers started asking questions. Q. When will you finally start the investment cycle? A. I can not say. I would be far too frivolous to give a timelines. But one needs to set clear procedures and accountability of government officials. There will be no more walking from door to door. vrdoljak- - nitko- normalan- nece- investirati- u- hrvatsku- / / (Original Croatian article) NEOČEKIVANA IZJAVA 'U HRVATSKU NITKO TKO JE NORMALAN NE ŽELI ULAGATI, NI U NJOJ ŽIVJETI' Trenutak istine ministra gospodarstva Ivana Vrdoljaka Ministar gospodarstva Ivan Vrdoljak (HNS) nije im se ni pokušao suprotstaviti. Ispred njega u dvorani hotela Antunović nekoliko desetaka poduzetnika koji mu objašnjavaju kako je nemoguće poslovati u Hrvatskoj. To im je već četvrti ministar gospodarstva s kojim razgovaraju, a nikad se ništa ne mijenja. Birokracija i zakoni uništavaju svaku želju za ulaganjem i otvaranjem novih radnih mjesta. U Hrvatskoj je najteže poslovati. Previše je prepreka. Sa svim se primjedbama HUP- ovaca i brojnih vlasnika tvrtki koji su se jučer na radnom ručku s ministrom okupili u hotelu Antunović, u potpunosti složio i nije obećao ama baš ništa! Upravo suprotno, izjavio je da je sasvim očekivano da nitko ne želi ulagati i poslovati u Hrvatskoj.

8 - Da, Hrvatska je 84. na Doing Bussines ljestvici. Zamislite čovjeka koji želi investirati u takvu zemlju. Pa kako može?! Što mu je?! To bi učinio jedino u slučaju da iz nekog razloga mrzi sve 83 prethodne zemlje! - izjavio je ministar. - Čini mi se kao da smo htjeli krenuti autoputom, a završili smo u kružnom toku i tako već godinama vozimo u krug - zaključio je Ivica Mudrinić, šef HUP- a. Vrdoljak je na to odgovorio kako ima nevjerojatan osjećaj da smo izgradili autoput, ali završili na kružnom toku. - Jedno smo kratko vrijeme imali osjećaj da se uspinjemo, da se dižemo, stvaramo, ali sada je sve to palo. U pametnim ljudima je naša najveća konkurentnost. Riječ konkurentnost stavljam ispred investicija. Zato u lipnju krećemo u izmjene Zakona o radu. Ako nemate neku emociju koja vas veže za neko mjesto, županiju, grad, pa tko bi od nas ostao u ovoj državi!?- zapitao se Vrdoljak. Uhvatio ga je, kaže, sram kada je maloprije opet bacio pogled na dugačak popis svih davanja poslodavaca. Zatim su poslodavci krenuli s pitanjima. Kada će se konačno pokrenuti investicijski ciklus? - Ja to ne mogu reći. Bio bih previše neozbiljan da sada dajem neke rokove. Ali jednom treba postaviti jasne procedure i odgovornost državnih dužnosnicima. Neće biti više hodanja od vrata do vrata. Prije manje od godinu dana je ministar poduzetništva Maras rekao će u roku od 48 sati primiti svakoga tko ima ulaganje veće od 2 milijuna eura. To baš nije uspjelo. Kako ubrzati investicije? - Nije baš trend da osnivamo nove agencije, ali smo baš zato osnovali agenciju za investicije i konkurentnost. Ajmo mi ovako. Meni je riječ konkurentnost puno bitnija od investicija. Imat ćemo radnu grupu ljudi koji će pratiti svaki projekt, a ako netko od vas ima bilo kakvu sugestiju kako to ubrzati i poboljšati javite se u Agenciju. Tamo sada radi 20 ljudi, a meni je želja da ih radi 40 jer imamo jako puno posla. Inače, za svaki konkretan slučaj se možete i meni javiti.

9 Economic Statistics GDP Growth

10 Trade Statistics NEG Croa(an Sta(s(cs Trade with Canada 2010 Export = $38,331,915 Import = $98,446,852 Imbalance = - $60,114, Exports = $15,987,433 Imports = $33,126,462 Imbalance = - $17,139,029 Canada Wins

11 Croatia tackles high unemployment rate By Kruno Kartus for Southeast European Times in Osijek /02/13 New labour measures are expected to reduce the high unemployment rate in Croatia. [AFP] New labour market measures launched by the Croatian government at the beginning of this year aim to reduce the country's 21 percent unemployment rate, its highest since The measures include employer subsidies, tax relief and self- employment support. They focus on raising employment opportunities for special social groups including the disabled, the elderly, war veterans and Roma. Under the new programme, unemployed youth receive health and pension insurance as well as 220 euros monthly. Employers are subsidized to provide professional training. When hiring people older than 50, the employer will receive 50 percent of the worker's gross wages from the state. The 2013 budget will also provide the salaries for public workers. The state allocated 61 million euros for the new labour measures, about 12 million euros more than in There are currently 370,000 unemployed people in Croatia, and the figure is rapidly growing. Since January 1st, 12,000 have lost their jobs. But some analysts said the measures are not enough. "These measures cannot significantly increase employment. The measures do not contribute to skill increase, or new knowledge for long- term employment," Iva Tomic, a researcher at the Zagreb institute of economics, told SETimes. Source: 01

12 Unemployment Rate in Croatia Compare Czech Rep = 7.5% Slovak Rep = 14.7% Hungary = 11% Slovenia = 10% Who of working age - has a job? Men = 818,000 of 1,804,000 = 45.3% Women = 704,000 of 2,032,000 = 34.6% Total = 39.7% Employed = 62.1% Employed

13 Croatia third- ranked European country in terms of youth unemployment :55 Croatia is the third- ranked European country according to the unemployment of young people, following Spain and Greece, given that of the 330,00 jobless Croatians, 130,000 are young people, heard a conference organised by the nongovernmental organisation called "the Croatian Youth Network" in Zagreb on Tuesday. The NGO's representatives described these figures as alarming. They also presented the findings of the NGO's publication and survey among over 1,000 young Croatians. Nikola Bukovic of the Croatian Youth Network said the main problems causing high unemployment rates were the defects in the education system, the poorly- conducted reform in the schooling system to implement the Bologna Process, the inflexible labour market, corruption, nepotism and clientelism, as well as lack of readiness among young people to move from one town to another for employment and generally anti- entrepreneurial climate. In attendance were Deputy Prime Minister Milanka Opacic and Labour Minister Mirando Mrsic who pledged the implementation of agendas that would turn the situation for the better. Source: third- ranked- European- country- in- terms- of- youth- unemployment.html

14 Unemployment Rate in Croatia 50%# Croa%a&&+23%& 45%# 40%# 46.1%& 35%# 37.1%& Unemployment years of age 30%# 25%# 20%# 15%# 10%# 5%# 0%# Unemployment! Dec.#31,#2010# Jan.#31,#2011# Feb.#28,#2011# March#31,#2011# April#30,#2011# May#31,#2011# June#30,#2011# July#31,#2011# Aug.#31,#2011# Sept.#30,#2011# Oct.#31,#2011# Nov.#30,#2011# Dec.#31,#2011# Jan.#31,#2012# Feb.#29,#2012# March#31,#2012# April#30,#2012# May#31,#2012# June#30,#2012# Start#of#SDP#Sabor# Hungary##+4%# Czech#Republic##+#14%# July#31,#2012# Aug.#31,#2012# Sept.#30,#2012# Oct.#31,#2012# Nov.#30,#2012# Dec.#31,#2012# Unemployment years of age

15 What have we come to Members of our government telling us to leave Croatia Marija Crnjak Milanka Opacic said that "young people are more mobile and have more opportunities to find some of their prosperity in the EU. Is it possible that arrived at a time at which members of the government are persuading us to leave Croatia, because there is no more bread? While visiting Pozega on Thursday, Minister Milanka Opacic said that "young people are more mobile and have more opportunities to find some of their prosperity in the European Union, where they will get a new chance at life." She also said that we do not need to be overly unhappy because of this. *Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Social Welfare Policy and Youth. Ms Opacic is from the Social Democrat Party (Socialist) and of Serbian descent. In other words, the Minister of Social Welfare Policy told the young unemployed people that they no longer have a chance at a normal life and prosperity in Croatia. Therefore, it is quite normal to look for new opportunities in the EU, now that it will be easier with the Croatian accession into the Union. Instead of remaining in Croatia and receiving public assistance from the minister of social welfare. Even though it's not quite evident in the statement, it stands to hope that the Minister expected Croatia to be in the EU, which will be accepted into the European family in July. Otherwise, if Opacic really thought about the exodus of young, mobile,

16 hard- working unemployed people from Croatia, without any concerns, then we have a very big problem. Her statement would be completely benign if almost a quarter of the population is out of work in Croatia, it could be understood be seen as if the call for the most plain labor mobility, which is a normal thing in European integration and the basis for economic cooperation. Unfortunately the reality of it is completely different, and the message is frighteningly clear. We have members of our government who no longer see the capability to live in Croatia, one day, if not today, we be equally full of prosperity. A nation in which it is worth investing in, struggle and sacrifice so that one day it will be better. So we have to move out, and of course if you're young enough and capable. smo- da- nas- clanovi- vlade- nagovaraju- da- iselimo- iz- hrvatske Comment: Over the last century, there has been a large exodus of Croatians from Croatia due to political and economic reasons. Today, there are as many Croats out in the world as there are in Croatia. Following the Second World War, Belgrade in some ways promoted Croats to leave. Consider this Yugoslavia was behind the Iron Curtain yet so many Croats were able to emigrate. As Croats left, others moved into Croatia in a constant migration and (Original Croatian article) Doživjeli smo da nas članovi Vlade nagovaraju da iselimo iz Hrvatske? Marija Crnjak Milanka Opačić izjavila je da su "mladi ljudi pokretljiviji i imaju više mogućnosti da pronađu neki svoj prosperitet u zemljama EU. Je li moguće da smo dočekali trenutak u kojem nas članovi Vlade nagovaraju da iselimo iz Hrvatske, jer tu više nema kruha? Ministrica Milanka Opačić naime gostujući u četvrtak u Požegi izjavila je da su "mladi ljudi pokretljiviji i imaju više mogućnosti da pronađu neki svoj prosperitet u zemljama Europske unije, gdje će

17 naći novu priliku za život". Kazala je također da zbog toga ne trebamo biti pretjerano nesretni. Drugim riječima, ministrica socijale poručila je mladim nezaposlenim ljudima da u Hrvatskoj više nemaju priliku za normalan život i prosperitet. Stoga je sasvim normalno da će novu priliku potražiti u zemljama EU, što će biti jednostavnije s ulaskom Hrvatske u Uniju. Umjesto da ostanu u Hrvatskoj i od ministrice socijale primaju socijalnu pomoć. Iako se to iz izjave baš ne vidi, ostaje se nadati da je ministrica u EU uvrstila i Hrvatsku koja bi u europsku obitelj trebala biti primljena u srpnju. Jer u suprotnom, ako je Opačić zaista mislila na iseljavanje mladih, pokretljivih, sposobnih nezaposlenih ljudi iz Hrvatske, ne brinući pritom, imamo jako velik problem. Njena izjava bila bi sasvim benigna da u Hrvatskoj skoro četvrt stanovništva nije nazaposleno, mogla bi se shvatiti kao poziv za najobičniju mobilnost radne snage koja je u europskim integracijama normalna stvar i temelj za gospodarsku suradnju. Nažalost stvarnost je savim drukčija i poruka je zastrašujuće jasna. Imamo člana Vlade koji nam službeno priznaje da je dio tima koji više ne vidi mogućnost da život u Hrvatskoj jednog dana, ako već ne danas, bude jednako tako pun prosperiteta. U koji se isplati ulagati, mučiti se da nam bude bolje. Pa moramo iseliti, naravno ako smo dovoljno mladi i sposobni. smo- da- nas- clanovi- vlade- nagovaraju- da- iselimo- iz- hrvatske

18 End Result Young Let s Leave Croatia Croa(a Natural Change in Popula(on 2011 Live births = Deaths = Growth = Economic decline has reached such a level that social issues are starting to develop. The social fabric of the nation is becoming to fall apart. People feel powerless. The situa(on is DIRE!

19 Croatia Activists Seek Repeat Vote on EU 13 Feb 13 A Croatian civic initiative called the Referendum Rebellion is collecting signatures demanding a repeat referendum on Croatia's EU accession, among other points. Besides a referendum on the EU, the group seeks votes on banning genetically modified products, on privatisation and on sales of state land. Group leader Zoran Mihajlovic on Tuesday urged people to sign the referendum request, "to stop arbitrariness of the politicians and the wrong direction the country is heading in". Another member of the initiative, Aleksandar Soltisyk, said the EU referendum needed to be repeated because "the EU is a loser at all levels" in which "Croatia as a nation has no chance of survival". Referendum Rebellion members have not made it clear whether they want a referendum on each of the subjects, or one referendum for all of them. the relevant issue. By Croatian law, if 10 per cent of all voters sign a petition, which means more than 400,000, a vote can take place on Croatia last held a referendum on joining the European Union on January 22, 2012, in which 66 per cent of those who turned out voted in favour of Croatian membership. Source: rebellion- starts- in- croatia Comment: The people in Croatia are finally starting to get fed up with the situation in the country. Unlike social change being brought about by violence, the Croatians are doing it in a civil and democratic manner - by asking for a referendum on some key issues. The unfortunate thing is that it takes signatures from 10% of the population in 14 days. This is an absurdly high hurdle to jump. In Switzerland a referendum (Citizen's initiative) at the federal level needs to collect 100,000 valid signatures within 18 months. Obviously the Croatian system is designed to prevent citizen- initiated referendums from happening.

20 Resettlement / Displacement of the Croatians Zagreb - February 13, 2013 Lately, there have been frequent proposals for youth to leave Croatia and seek their livelihood in some other country, because there is no future for them in the country where they were born and grew up. Such messages, in addition to exposing the present day national tragedy, they are extremely dangerous for the future of the Croatian people as a whole. Not even the biggest and richest countries in the world would easily give up their young people allowing a brain- drain, so why do it here and for whose interests are the Croatian leaders doing this? Who does it benefit when there are fewer Croats from generation to generation? Can a small nation such as the Croatia afford such an attitude toward its future? The recent census showed us the alarming demographic picture of Croatia, but the ruling political elite, and the government, the one that is currently governing as well as the one that governed the past decade, does not seem in the least worried. Given how over the past few years we have witnessed a general disregard for the national interests by these politicians, we can rightly conclude that the demographic collapse of Croatia is only one part of the plan for the destruction of an independent Croatian state and Croats as a nation.

21 In order to make it not look like they are doing nothing, the ruling minds came up with and presented strategies to improve the demographic situation in Croatia at the national forum entitled "Demographics Croatia s future condition" in which keynote speaker of the forum, President Josipovic enthusiastically declared: "In front of us there are two great tasks and that is to work on a birthrate increase policy and devising policies that will attract foreign citizens. The time for small- mindedness has passed, Croatia has enough resources and capacity to accept the young intellectuals who will certainly contribute to the development of Croatian pro- birthrate policies." So that's the plan, Mr. President? Are Croatian youth to be sent out into the world to seek a better future while Croatia is to be populated by foreign citizens, because Croatia is not small- minded but full of capacity and opportunity to accept anyone who wants to live in it? Have you ever thought about that you and your wise counsel make use of this capacity and keep the Croatian youth in the Homeland and use their intellect and zeal for the betterment of Croatia and not for the benefit of some other country which has not invested a cent in their development? Your Kukuriku colleagues do not think to provide expectant mothers with financial and other support that would allow them to give birth to and raise a larger number of children, so that immigration would be unnecessary. Your adviser did though devise a health/sex education program through which they promote an ideology that leads to an even greater decrease in Croatian birth rates. Croatia has, throughout its history, always been broadminded and provided a home and a refuge for all that needed it, but in return some of these same settlers eventually took control of the government persecuting their hosts and claiming the land as their own. After each such generosity we were left without a single piece of sovereign territory, and we will not even speak of the disappearance of the population over the ages from the Croatian territories. The most obvious example of this is the time after the Second World War when your ideological role models expelled Croats and ethnic Germans from their ancestral lands and then settled immigrants from the whole of the former Yugoslavia. "Accidentally or by circumstance" the nationality of settlers was mainly those who claimed that it is their country and by happenstance these newcomers were given the best land and the best jobs, while the indigenous Croatian people were either politically or economically exiled or sentenced to subsistence survival. After fifty years, the newcomers have concluded that a part of Croatia is theirs and that only they have the right to live there, and they supported/argued their conclusions with a rifle and a knife. Truth is that their plan did not succeed, but no matter that they lost the war, broadminded Croats forgave them the slaughter and destruction they committed and allowed them to continue living peacefully on the land which again after twenty years they claim as their own country and seek there their own rights, which are nowhere in the world recognized by law, but which are based on earlier expulsions of the Croatian population. Do we need to once again

22 repeat to prove (to whom?) that we are not narrow- minded or that have we learned something from history? Croatia does have the resources and opportunity for young people, be they intellectuals or craftsmen, to succeed. We must start developing the resources and opportunity putting them at the disposition of those who were born and educated in Croatia, and only then if they are not enough to then call for foreigners to use their knowledge and skills to enrich Croatia. Promising young people that they will soon be able to work in the EU is of course a fraud because those who wanted to could have worked there already, and there have been established quota limits on employment and the cost of labor, which is to be the same as in the country from which the worker is coming. No, that is not the main problem, the question for which previous political elites have no answer, is why do our young people have to go to work and wander around in foreign countries, separated from their families, friends and the land where they grew up. We know the answer. They promise employment in other countries, because they are incompetent, unable to provide the youth with jobs in Croatia. Neither the HDZ nor the Kukuriku Coalition has so far shown neither the knowledge nor the will to create out of Croatia a country in which it is possible to live based on your own work and create value for future generations. Everything we have seen from them was the selling off of everything that was available for sale, and a life lived on credit. It is high time for us to that both one and the other for everything, and that Croatia is finally governed by those who created it and dreamed of it as a country of prosperous and happy people who do not need to seek their luck and fortune under other people s skies. It is high time for those that were exiled to return to Croatia and not that a new exodus occurs due to the incompetence and neglect of the politicians which are not of the people and for the people. Action for a Better Croatia mr. Zeljko Cvrtila, acting president Comment: We do not ask for anything out of the ordinary. We look to Israel as a role- model. All we ask for is a sovereign Homeland where we are masters of our destiny, where we can live freely while protecting our culture and traditions, in an international setting of friends. God gave use this beautiful land and so why should we not be the ones that enjoy the benefits and prosperity that this land can provide to us the Croatian people.

23 Source: (Original Croatian article) Raseljavanje Hrvata U posljednje vrijeme sve su učestaliji pozivi mladeži neka napuste Hrvatsku i svoju egzistenciju potraže u nekim drugim zemljama jer tamo gdje su rođeni i odrasli za njih nema budućnosti. Takve poruke, osim što pokazuju svu tragičnost sadašnjice, iznimno su pogubne za budućnost hrvatskog naroda. Niti najveće i najbogatije države svijeta ne odriču se olako svoje mladeži, pa zašto to onda i za čije interese čine vladajuće garniture u Hrvatskoj? Kome to odgovara da Hrvata bude što manje iz generacije u generaciju i može li si jedan mali narod kao što je hrvatski priuštit ovakav odnos prema budućnosti? Nedavno provedeni popis stanovništva donio nam je alarmantnu demografsku sliku Hrvatske, no vladajuća politička elita, i ova koja trenutno vlada i ona koja je vladala posljednjih desetak godina, ne čini se ni najmanje zabrinuta. S obzirom kako godinama svjedočimo općem nemaru prema nacionalnim interesima spomenutih političara, možemo s punim pravom zaključit da je demografska propast Hrvatske tek jedan dio plana uništavanja Hrvatske kao samostalne države i Hrvata kao nacije. No kako bi ipak ne bi izgledalo da ništa ne rade, vladajući umovi osmislili su strategiju poboljšanja demografske slike Hrvatske i prezentirali ju na Nacionalnom forumu nazvanom Demografija - uvjet hrvatske budućnosti" na kojemu pokrovitelj Foruma, predsjednik Josipović oduševljeno izjavljuje: Pred nama su dvije velike zadaće, a to je rad na pronatalitetnoj politici te osmišljavanje politike koja će privući strane građane. Vrijeme uskogrudnosti je prošlo, Hrvatska ima dovoljno snage i kapaciteta da prihvati mlade intelektualce koji će sasvim sigurno doprinijeti razvoju pronatalitetne politike Hrvatske", To je dakle plan gospodine predsjedniče?! Mlade Hrvate poslat u svijet neka tamo potraže bolju budućnost, a Hrvatsku naselit stranim građanima, jer Hrvatska nije uskogrudna nego puna kapaciteta za prihvat svakoga tko se sjeti u njoj živjet. Da li Vam je palo na pamet, Vama i Vašim mudrim savjetnicima kako te kapacitete iskoristit pa zadržat hrvatsku mladež u Domovini i koristiti njihov intelekt i elan za boljitak Hrvatske, a ne za boljitak neke druge države koja nije ulagala niti lipe u njihov razvoj? Vaši kukuriku kolege nisu se sjetili da budućim majkama omoguće financijske i druge uvjete koji bi im omogućili rađenje i odgoj većeg broja djece, pa bi useljavanje bilo nepotrebno. Ali su se zato sjetili da kroz zdravstveni odgoj provuku ideologiju koja dovodi do još većeg smanjenja nataliteta. Hrvatska je kroz svoju povijest uvijek bila širokogrudna i pružala je dom i utočište svima kojima je to bilo potrebno, a zauzvrat je dobila to da su isti ti doseljenici s vremenom preuzimali vlast progoneći svoje domaćine i svojatajući njihovu zemlju kao svoju. Nakon svake takve širokogrudnosti ostali smo bez jednog dijela teritorija, a o nestanku stanovništva s vjekovima hrvatskih prostora da i ne govorimo.

24 Najočitiji primjer tomu je vrijeme nakon drugog svjetskog rata kada su Vaši ideološki uzori protjerali Hrvate i Folksdojčere s njihove djedovine i istu naselili došljacima iz cijele bivše Jugoslavije. Slučajno" je nacionalnost doseljenih uglavnom ona koja je tvrdila da je to njihova zemlja i slučajno" su baš ti došljaci dobivali najbolju zemlju i najbolja radna mjesta, dok je domaći hrvatski narod ili prognan politički i ekonomski ili osuđen na preživljavanje. Nakon pedesetak godina došljaci su zaključili kako je taj dio Hrvatske njihov i da samo oni imaju pravo tamo živjet pa su te svoje zaključke argumentirali puškom i nožem. Istina plan im nije uspio, no bez obzira što su rat izgubili, širokogrudni Hrvati oprostili su im i pokolj i razaranje i pustili ih da mirno nastave život na otetoj zemlji, ali opet nakon dvadesetak godina oni tvrde da je to njihova zemlja i traže na njoj neka svoja, nigdje u svijetu priznata prava, koja se još k tome temelje upravo na ranijem protjerivanju hrvatskog življa. Trebamo li to još koji put ponovit da bi dokazali (kome?) kako nismo uskogrudni ili smo ipak nešto naučili od povijesti? Hrvatska doista ima snage i kapaciteta za mlade, bili oni intelektualci ili obrtnici ali tu snagu i kapacitete treba znati pokrenut i stavit na raspolaganje onima koji su rođeni i obrazovani u Hrvatskoj, a tek onda ako ih nema dovoljno pozivati strance da svojim znanjima i sposobnostima obogate Hrvatsku. Obećavanje mladima da će uskoro moći radit u EU, naravno da je prevara jer tko je htio i do sada je mogao tamo radit, a i uspostavljena su ograničenja i kroz kvotu zapošljavanja i kroz cijenu rada koja je ista kao u zemlji iz koje radnik dolazi. No, nije to glavni problem, već pitanje na koje dosadašnje političke elite nemaju odgovora, a to je ZAŠTO bi naši mladi morali ići radit i potucat se po stranim zemljama, odvojeni od svojih obitelji, prijatelja i kraja svog odrastanja. Mi znamo odgovor. Obećavaju zapošljavanje u drugim zemljama, zato jer su nesposobni, nesposobni osigurati im radna mjesta u Hrvatskoj. Niti HDZ niti Kukuriku koalicija nisu dosad pokazale ni znanje ni volju stvorit od Hrvatske zemlju u kojoj će se živjet od vlastitog rada i stvarat nove vrijednosti za buduće generacije. Sve što smo vidjeli od njih je rasprodaja svega što je bilo na prodaju i život na kredit. Krajnje je vrijeme da se i jednima i drugima zahvalimo na svemu i da Hrvatskom konačno vladaju oni koji su ju stvarali i sanjali kao zemlju sretnih ljudi koji svoju sreću više neće tražit pod tuđim nebom. Krajnje je vrijeme da se u Hrvatsku vraćaju oni koji su iz nje davno protjerani, a ne da se zbog nesposobnosti i nebrige nenarodnih političara, svakodnevno događa novi egzodus Hrvata. Akcija za bolju Hrvatsku mr. Željko Cvrtila, v.d. predsjednik

25 Is the government also preparing chaos? Ivan Miklenić Glas Koncila Commentary Croatia, as a country, enters another particularly sensitive period in which there are threats, it appears, a programed escalation of chaos, and a government which instead of preventing the potential chaos acts in such a way that we must openly ask the question: Is the Government participating in the preparation of chaos? Coming to an end, in fact, you could say is a 20- year entry process of the Republic of Croatia into the European integration and in this remaining time there is a special opportunity for new efforts to prevent it. As for the international community, despite the current vagueness and ambiguity about Slovenian ratification of the accession treaty, we can say that most likely all obstacles have been removed. The signatures of the member states which, among other things, define the 1 st of July 2013, as the day of Croatian arrival into the European Union has its own weight, and respect for one's signature is not just something that would be in the interest of Croatia but is a question of the credibility of each of the signatory states and the EU as a community. It is known that the U.S. openly supports the realization of the entry, and it can be said, regardless that at the present time the Slovenia issue is open, that is - as far as the relevant part of the international community - the necessary consensus has been made and that everything is basically ready for Croatia to join in the EU. This is true even despite the fact that in some countries around Croatia (excluding Slovenia) there exist political forces that find it difficult to reconcile with even the existence of the Croatian state, much less a Croatia in the European Union. Specifically, the Croatian accession to the EU is a step forward from the imagined political- ideological constructs such as the "Western Balkans", "Yugo- sphere" or "region" and the recognition that Croatia s natural place is in Europe based on its large Catholic population and its (Western ) European culture. It is well known that in Croatian society the coincidental" absence of political will over the smoldering embers, above which ashes have formed, all that is needed is a small blow of air for the embers to show their face. If the government does not extinguish the embers, but also creates new ones, the question arises: Does this mean that the government is preparing chaos?

26 At the same time, while in the relevant international community there exists openness for the completion of the long and numerous trials of this process, in Croatia, there is a very critical period. In the time to the first of July of this year we should expect, along with attitudes of sincere support for Croatian membership in the EU as a positioning Croatian in a modern Europe, there will be a lot of deceptive verbal advocacy against this accession, there will also be at the same time throwing of sound- bites creating obstacles so that the integration does not happen. During this period, there will be those who are publicly and irrevocably opposed to Croatian accession to the EU will be activated and there will be from one side informal political groups that oppose the integration based on honorable, honest and benevolent concerns for what, in their opinion, is best for Croatia, and on the other hand political groups that oppose everything that would be good for the state, and a big step out of the dark Croatian Balkan dungeon where they are now mostly the masters. In a pluralistic democratic society, all opinions are legitimate and entitled to a public voice, but events and organized activities are restricted by common sense, and of course by applicable law, and any violation of such legal framework entail sanctions. This principled stances will probably not be publicly challenged by anyone, but there are groups that do not accept the law, and are violating it during all the years of Croatian autonomy (and that so far have never answered for it) and that will make their unethical, illegal and unconstitutional work while they continue hiding behind the rhetoric of various interpretations, including quite Croatian or highly democratic rhetoric. These groups, aware we are approaching dangerously close to the end of their hidden reign in all segments of Croatian society, will be ready to do anything so that the current deliberate and controlled chaos is not touched. Moreover, these groups will be ready to use any or all latent low- intensity conflicts that exist in the Croatian society and raise them to a high intensity - with the clear intention to create general chaos that Croatia is maximally destabilized and thus prevent its predicted entry into the EU. It is well known that in Croatian society the "coincidental" absence of political will over the smoldering embers over which have been created ashes that just need a bit of little bit wind so that the fire unveils its face. All governments since 2000 have been "tasked" with this and the current government strives in efforts to create new hotspots. By their failure to act or unnatural manner, is contrary to the common good, with decisions and rulings of all governments fueled the coals of massive unemployment, the further collapse of the economy, especially industry and agriculture, and the current government is preparing to announce the sale and public goods, systematically undermining the purchasing power of Croatian citizens and tax levies increases in energy prices and other property under the control of monopolists. The current government has opened a worldview conflict in Croatian society that the media insistently interprets solely as a conflict between Church and State, and the work is about a conflict with minorities whose representatives already control

27 all major state institutions, the media and segments of Croatian society, while the majority is in many ways marginalized and humiliated. The current ruling establishment insists on the selective enforcement of the law while others are openly violated, while other laws wants to change in a callous way, though it has done nothing to prepare the ground for the application of the law. An example of such conduct is the precisely planned introduction of bilingualism and the Cyrillic alphabet in Vukovar, which holds open Croatia wounds by trampling of the truth, justice and law enforcement or conducting enforcements against the families. All those hot embers are so far covered with ashes, but there are many of them and they are needed by groups that do not want a Croatia or good for the Croatian people and are potential hotspots of chaos. If the government does not put out the hot spots, but creates new ones, the question arises: Does this mean that the government is preparing chaos? Source: koncila.hr/index.php?option=com_php&itemid=41&news_id= (Original Croatian article) Zar i Vlada priprema kaos? Hrvatska kao država ulazi u još jedno osobito osjetljivo razdoblje u kojem prijeti, čini se, eskalacija programiranog kaosa, a vlasti umjesto da spriječe samu mogućnost kaosa postupaju tako da se mora otvoreno postaviti pitanje: Sudjeluje li i Vlada u toj pripremi kaosa? Svome kraju približava se, naime, može se reći 20- godišnji proces ulaženja Republike Hrvatske u europsku integraciju te je preostalo vrijeme osobita prilika za nove pokušaje da se to spriječi. Što se tiče međunarodne zajednice, usprkos sadašnjoj nejasnoći i nedorečenosti oko slovenske ratifikacije pristupnog ugovora, može se reći da su najvjerojatnije sve zapreke uklonjene. Potpis zemalja članica kojim su, uz ostalo, definirale 1. srpnja kao dan pristupa Republike Hrvatske Europskoj Uniji ima svoju težinu, i poštivanje vlastitoga potpisa nije samo nešto što bi bilo u interesu Hrvatske već je pitanje vjerodostojnosti svake od država potpisnica i EU- a kao zajednice. Poznato je da i SAD otvoreno daje potporu realizaciji toga pristupa te se može reći, bez obzira na ovoga časa još uvijek otvoreno pitanje Slovenije, da je što se tiče relevantnoga dijela međunarodne zajednice ostvaren potreban konsenzus i da je načelno sve spremno da Hrvatska uđe u EU. To vrijedi čak i usprkos činjenici što u pojedinim zemljama u okruženju Hrvatske (izuzimajući pritom Sloveniju) postoje političke snage koje se teško mire s postojanjem ikakve države Hrvatske, pa dosljedno ne žele ni Hrvatsku u Europskoj

28 Uniji. Naime, ulazak Hrvatske u EU iskorak je iz zamišljenih političko- ideoloških tvorevina kao što su»zapadni Balkan«,»jugosfera«ili»region«i priznavanje je Hrvatskoj naravnoga mjesta koje ona ima u Europi po svom većinskom katoličkom stanovništvu i po svojoj (zapadno)europskoj kulturi. Dobro je poznato da u hrvatskom društvu»slučajnom«odsutnošću političke volje tinja mnogo žeravice iznad koje se stvorio pepeo i samo je potrebno da se malo potpiri pa da oganj otkrije svoje lice. Ako Vlada ne gasi ta žarišta nego stvara nova, nameće se pitanje: Znači li to da i Vlada priprema kaos? Istodobno, dok u relevantnoj međunarodnoj zajednici postoji otvorenost za dovršenje toga dugog i brojnim kušnjama označenog procesa, u samoj Hrvatskoj nastupilo je kritično razdoblje. U vremenu do 1. srpnja ove godine treba očekivati, uz stavove koji iskreno podupiru članstvo Hrvatske u EU- u kao naravno pozicioniranje Hrvatske u suvremenoj Europi, mnogo prijetvornih, tek verbalnih zagovaranja toga pristupa uz istodobno bacanje klipova i stvaranje zapreka da se integracija ipak ne dogodi. U tom razdoblju aktivirat će se i one snage koje se javno i neopozivo protive ulasku Hrvatske u EU, i to s jedne strane neformalne političke grupacije koje se protive toj integraciji iz časne, iskrene i dobronamjerne zabrinutosti za ono što bi, po njihovu mišljenju, bilo bolje za Hrvatsku, a s druge strane političke grupacije koje se protive svemu što bi bilo dobro za Hrvatsku, pa i iskoraku Hrvatske iz mračne balkanske krčme u kojoj oni sada uglavnom gospodare. U pluralnom demokratskom društvu sva su mišljenja legitimna i imaju pravo na glas u javnosti, a postupanja i organizirana djelovanja ograničena su zdravom logikom, naravnim i pozitivnim zakonom te svako kršenje tih zakonskih okvira povlači za sobom i sankcije. Ovaj načelni stav vjerojatno nitko neće javno osporavati, ali postoje grupacije koje ga ne prihvaćaju, koje ga krše svih godina samostalnosti Hrvatske (a da dosada za to nikada nisu odgovarale) i koje će svoju neetičnu i protuzakonitu i protuustavnu rabotu nastaviti krijući se iza različitih retorika i interpretacija, pa čak i tvrdo hrvatske ili visoko demokratske retorike. Te grupacije, svjesne da se opasno približava kraj njihova skrivenog carevanja u svim segmentima hrvatskoga društva, bit će spremne sve učiniti da se ne dira sadašnji smišljeni i kontrolirani nered. Štoviše, te grupacije bit će spremne iskoristi sve ili mnoge latentne sukobe niskoga intenziteta koji postoje u hrvatskome društvu i dignuti ih na visoki intenzitet s jasnim ciljem da se stvori opći kaos, da se Hrvatska maksimalno destabilizira i da se na taj način spriječi njezin predviđeni ulazak u EU. Dobro je poznato da u hrvatskom društvu»slučajnom«odsutnošću političke volje tinja mnogo žeravice iznad koje se stvorio pepeo i samo je potrebno da se malo potpiri pa da oganj otkrije svoje lice. Za to su»zaslužne«sve vlade od godine, a sadašnja se trudi stvoriti i nova žarišta. Svojim nečinjenjem ili nenaravnim, protivnim općemu dobru, odlukama i rješenjima sve vlade podgrijavale su golemu žeravicu nezaposlenosti, daljnjeg urušavanja gospodarstva, osobito industrije i poljoprivredne proizvodnje, a sadašnja Vlada sprema se i najavljuje rasprodaju javnih dobara, potkopava sustavno kupovnu moć hrvatskih građana poreznim nametima i poskupljenjima energenata i drugih dobara pod kontrolom monopolista.

29 Sadašnja Vlada otvorila je svjetonazorski sukob u hrvatskom društvu koji mediji uporno žele interpretirati isključivo kao sukob države i Crkve, a radi se o sukobu manjine čiji predstavnici već kontroliraju sve važnije državne institucije, medije i segmente hrvatskoga društva, i većine koja je na mnogo načina marginalizirana i ponižena. Sadašnja vladajuća garnitura insistira na selektivnom provođenju zakona pa jedne zakone otvoreno krši, a druge želi na bešćutan način primijeniti, premda nije baš ništa učinila da pripremi teren za primjenu zakona. Primjer takvoga postupanja upravo je planirano uvođenje dvojezičnosti i ćirilice u Vukovaru, hrvatskoj rani koju se drži otvorenom gaženjem istine, pravde i prava ili provođenje ovrha nad obiteljima. Sve te žeravice, zasada prekrivene pepelom, a ima ih još mnogo, potrebne su grupacijama koje ne žele ni Hrvatsku ni dobro hrvatskom narodu i potencijalna su žarišta kaosa. Ako Vlada ne gasi ta žarišta nego stvara nova, nameće se pitanje: Znači li to da i Vlada priprema kaos?

30 Lalic worries about apathy: Croatia is on the edge of a precipice, and the mass protests accomplish nothing! 'Why is Economy Minister Ivan Vrdoljak spreading hopelessness, why does he not quit?' Commentary g Although Croatia is on the verge of socio- economic collapse, our financial rating is 'junk', and the Government announced budget revision and new cuts, sociologist Drazen Lalic says he does not expect a mass expression of rebellion and large protests. He clarifies that the criteria which must be crossed before a large outbreak of social unrest is 400,000 unemployed and more than 40 percent of young people in that number. Although these numbers will soon be exceeded, Lalic does not expect a mass of Croatian citizens on the streets, but he worries about massive socio- political apathy. 'The majority reacts with apathy and that concerns me," he says, adding that the increase of philosophizing about political worldviews is also part of the citizens' revolt. 'Do you think 20,000 people would gather today in Vukovar if everyone lived well?' he asked in the Daily News HTV. In the ruling class, he says, it is not just bad policy and the decisions they make, but poor communication as well. He mentions 'dissonant tones about the lowered credit rating given by the Finance Minister Slavko Linic and Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic. Particularly scandalous is the statement by Economy Minister Ivan Vrdoljak that nobody normal would invest in Croatia. "For what reason is he the minister of the economy, why is he spreading hopelessness, why does not he quit, says a disappointed Lalic. The conclusion is that the Croatian apathy will be reflected in low voter turnout in the upcoming local elections. Source: brine- apatija- hrvatska- je- na- rubu- provalije- a- od- masovnih- prosvjeda- nista Comment: Croatia is in almost as bad an economic situation as Greece and Spain, and in a worse political situation yet there is no social unrest in Croatia as there was/is in the other countries. The people are still passive due to a lack of democratic empowerment from years of communist and anti- Croat repression.