The Causes of Voice after Exit

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1 The Causes of Voice after Exit A Case Study of North Korean Refugees in the U.K. Seung Hoon Chae Candidate for Ph.D. in Politics Nuffield College, University of Oxford

2 North Koreans in UK UK average [1] Proportion of people who have taken part in political activism 39% 36% [1] Derived from the 2010 British Election Study

3 Table of Contents The Research Question Two Hypotheses: H 0 and H 1 Method of Research Descriptive Statistics Results of Analysis Implications

4 The Research Question Figure 1. The two-stage process of diasporic political participation Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

5 The Research Question Figure 1. The two-stage process of diasporic political participation Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

6 The Research Question Figure 1. The two-stage process of diasporic political participation Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

7 The Research Question Figure 1. The two-stage process of diasporic political participation Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice Question: What causes 2?

8 Two Hypotheses H 0 : Political experience inside North Korea extends beyond the firstlevel of participation and affects a refugee s decision to participate in second-level activities. Ahmadov and Sasse (2014) find that Ukrainian and Polish voters continue to exhibit the same salient regional divisions found in domestic voting and the individual vote choice is strongly predicted by migrant voters regional background.

9 Figure 1. The two-stage process of diasporic political participation Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

10 Two Hypotheses H 1 : Political experience in North Korea is not an important cause of voice after exit ; instead, conditions in the present host-country environment are more relevant to second-level diasporic participation. Distinction between political/economic forced/voluntary migrants is not one that can easily be made in practice. (Turton, 2003) The case of North Korea is substantially different from that of Ukrainian, Polish, and Karen migrants. The transnationality of North Koreans is severely limited.

11 Figure 1. The two-stage process of diasporic political participation Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

12 Method of Research Data: 83 structured interviews and 13 semi-structured interviews. Sampling: convenience sampling from a total population of 681. Statistical test reveals no relevant bias. Statistical Model: binary logistic regression.

13 Descriptive Statistics Hometown in North Korea (%) New Malden South Korea N. Hamgyung S. Hamgyung Pyongyang S. Hwanghae N. Hwanghae S. Pyongan N. Pyongan Jagang Yanggang Gangwon

14 Descriptive Statistics

15 Descriptive Statistics % New Malden South Korea UN Census 2009 Employment Total Male 69.7 n.a. Current occupation Professional Farmer Self-employed/trader Labourer Senior official/manager 1.5 Officeworker Teacher 5.3 Soldier Other/not-specified

16 Descriptive Statistics English language Cultural differences Visa application Finding employment Educating children Prejudice against North Korean people Economic constraints British food South Korean government workers UK government workers Obstacles to integration

17 Results of Analysis Voice: self-reported Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Experience in North Korea Experience in Host Country (UK) Identifies as North Korean Political escape motive Political motive * identity Income Log of income Years of residence in the UK Satisfied with UK policy about DPRK Expected collective benefit Selective benefit 0.60 (0.38) 0.35 (0.63) 0.27 (0.17) 0.09 (0.69) (0.27) (0.39) 2.21 (0.22) -2.71** (0.03) 0.27 (0.25) 1.18 (0.11) 0.22 (0.19) -2.99* (0.01) 0.36 (0.16) 2.00 (0.14) 0.17 (0.37) -3.00** (0.02) 0.31 (0.26)

18 Results of Analysis: continued Voice: self-reported Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Control Variables Female Age (0.58) (0.62) (0.60) 0.03 (0.28) (0.28) 0.06 (0.14) -1.81* (0.34) 0.08 (0.11) Constant McFadden s Adjusted R Log Likelihood AIC N (number of observations)

19 Evidence in Support of H 0 H 0 : Political experience inside North Korea extends beyond the firstlevel of participation and affects a refugee s decision to participate in second-level activities.

20 Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

21 Incarceration and Voice Voice of those who had been incarcerated in DPRK (%) Security Apparatus Law Enforcement Both Never Incarcerated

22 Occupation in DPRK and Voice Voice by former occupation in the DPRK Unemployed Government official Merchant Student Voice No Voice Officeworker/teacher Other

23 Workers Party Membership and Voice 100% Voice by former membership of DPRK's Workers' Party 80% 60% 40% Voice No voice 20% 0% Not member Member

24 Political Escape, Identity, and Voice Voice by identity and escape motive (%) Identifies as Escaped from North Korean Other nationality Political motivations Non-political motivations

25 Evidence in Support of H 1 H 1 : Political experience in North Korea is not an important cause of voice after exit ; instead, conditions in the present host-country environment are more relevant to second-level diasporic participation.

26 Home Country 1 Exit Outside Home (Host Country) 2 Voice Political Voice

27 0 Probability of using 'voice' Income and Voice Adjusted Predictions with 95% CIs Monthly Income (thousands of pounds)

28 0 Probability of using 'voice' Length of UK Residence and Voice Adjusted Predictions with 95% CIs Years of residence in the UK

29 0 Probability of using 'voice' Satisfaction with UK s foreign policy on DPRK Adjusted Predictions with 95% CIs Dissatisfied satisfied with UK policies on the DPRK Satisfied

30 Academic Implications One, experience in North Korea is not a guarantee of activism; more attention needed for cases where transnational ties are weak Two, economic escape motive does not make someone an economic migrant ; conceptual discussions regarding refugees and whether North Koreans in China should be protected under Refugee Convention Third, host countries are important; need to compare North Koreans in the UK and South Korea

31 Policy Implications One, income matters. Poor people cannot afford to become political activists Two, experience matters. The more a person knows about the system, the more she participates. It is important to facilitate fast-learning of the country s democratic system. This has been demonstrated by the fact that longer residence in the country makes a person more likely to be politically active. Three, critical thinking matters. People who are more critical of the government s policies on North Korea were more likely to raise their voices. The refugees need to be encouraged to express their thoughts freely.

32 Funding Nuffield College

33 Bibliography Anar K. Ahmadov and Gwendolyn Sasse (2014): Migrants' regional allegiances in homeland elections: evidence on voting by Poles and Ukrainians, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, DOI: / X Just, A., and C. J. Anderson. "Opinion Climates and Immigrant Political Action: A Cross-National Study of 25 European Democracies." Comparative Political Studies 47, no. 7 (2013): doi: / Anthony H. Richmond. Reactive Migration: Sociological Perspectives On Refugee Movements, Journal of Refugee Studies Vol. 6, No.1 (1993): 7-24 David Turton. Conceptualising Forced Migration, RSC Working Paper No.12, Refugee Studies Centre (2003) Geff Green and Eleanor Grace Lockley. "Communication Practices of the Karen in Sheffield: Seeking to Navigate Their Three Zones of Displacement." Asian Journal of Communication 22, no. 6 (2012): , p.13 Rawan Mazen Arar. How political migrants' networks differ from those of economic migrants: strategic anonymity among Iraqi refugees in Jordan, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 42:3 (2016): Steven Pfaff and Hyojoung Kim (2003): Exit-Voice Dynamics in Collective Action: An Analysis of Emigration and Protest in the East German Revolution, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 109, No.2 J. W. Kang. Human Rights and Refugee Status of the North Korean Diaspora. North Korean Review, 9 no.2 (2013): 4 17., p.11 Janet E. Reilly. Temporary Refugees: The Impact of US Policy on Civic Participation and Political Belonging among Liberians in the United States. Refugee Survey Quarterly, 35 (2016): Yossi Shain. The Frontier of Loyalty: Political Exiles in the Age of the Nation-state. Middletown, CT: Wesleyan UP, Print.

34 Thank you

Transnational Ties of Latino and Asian Americans by Immigrant Generation. Emi Tamaki University of Washington

Transnational Ties of Latino and Asian Americans by Immigrant Generation Emi Tamaki University of Washington Abstract Sociological studies on assimilation have often shown the increased level of immigrant