LICOS Discussion Paper Series

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "LICOS Discussion Paper Series"

Transcription

1 LICOS Discussion Paper Series Discussion Paper 383/2016 Does working abroad affect political opinions? Evidence from Moldova Ruxanda Berlinschi Faculty of Economics And Business LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance Waaistraat 6 mailbox Leuven BELGIUM TEL:+32-(0) FAX:+32-(0)

2 Does working abroad affect political opinions? Evidence from Moldova Ruxanda Berlinschi 1 August 9, 2016 Abstract This paper investigates the effects of work experience abroad on political opinions using survey data from Moldova, a former soviet republic caught in an ideological battle between Russia and the West, with high emigration rates to both destinations. Contrarily to studies conducted in Africa or Latin America, we find no effect of past migration on democratic participation or on critical governance assessment. Likewise, no effect is found on domestic policy preferences. The one dimension strongly associated with migration experience is geopolitical preference, whereby return migrants from former Soviet countries are more likely to support closer ties with Russia, while return migrants from Western countries show higher support for EU integration, controlling for economic, demographic and ethnic confounding factors. For identification, we instrument individual migration with district level migrant networks. IV regressions show that only work experience in Western countries affects geopolitical preferences. JEL Classification:P3, J61, D72, D83. Key words: return migration, political opinions, Moldova, survey data. 1 ECON-CEDON, KU Leuven Campus Brussels. Contact: ruxanda.berlinschi@kuleuven.be. 1

3 1. Introduction How does international migration shape the spread of values, beliefs and ideologies across the globe? The number of people crossing national borders increases as access to information and communication technologies improve while poverty, insecurity, corruption, repression and other serious economic and political ills persist in some parts of the world. One important and often overlooked consequence of cross border movements people, along with effects on labour markets and public finances, is migrants exposure to new information. In host countries, migrants have the opportunity to observe the functioning of different economic, political and social systems. They have access to new social and professional networks and media channels. They may also experience important changes in their economic or social status. Such life experiences may be sufficiently important to affect migrants values, beliefs and norms in a variety of domains, from eating habits and gender roles, to social norms and political opinions. Ideas adopted abroad may then cross borders with return migration, and with migrants participation networks, media and politics in their countries of origin. The transmission of ideas by migrants to their countries of origin, sometimes called social remittances, has been documented by a small but growing body of economic research. This literature includes cross country and country-specific studies and has mostly focused on political opinions. 2 A number of studies analysed the effects of emigration on politics and institutions using country-level data. Li and McHale (2006) were the first to propose such an empirical analysis. They found that skilled labour emigration in 1990 was positively associated with political institutions and negatively associated with economic institutions ten years later. Spilimbergo (2009) showed that student emigration to democratic countries improved democratic indicators at home for a panel of 183 countries, between 1960 and Beine and Sekkat (2013) examined the evolution of Kaufmann governance indicators between 1994 and 2004 as a function of emigration rates to OECD countries. They found positive effects of emigration on all institutional indicators except voice and accountability, for which the impact was negative. Effects were found to be stronger for skilled emigration. Mercier (2016) analysed the level of democracy in developing countries as a function of the head of state s study experience abroad over the period She found that political leaders who studied abroad improved the level of democracy during their tenure, particularly for countries with poor initial democracy levels. Finally, a recent paper by Docquier et al. (2016) examined the relationship between 2 One exception is Levitt (1998), who uses qualitative data from Miraflores, a high US emigration community in the Dominican Republic, suggesting that migrants transfer a wide range of values and behaviors, from clothing and housing styles, to trash management and attitudes towards women. Another exception is Beine et al (2013), who use cross country data to show that migrants transfer destination country fertility norms to their origin countries. 2

4 openness to emigration and institutional quality in developing countries over the last 30 years, extending the results of Spilimbergo (2009) to all types of migrants. Other studies analysed transmission of political ideas by migrants using regional variation in migration and voting behavior in specific countries. Pfutze (2012) used data from the Mexican municipal elections to show that emigration significantly increased the probability for opposition parties to win elections for the first time. Chauvet and Mercier (2014) used locality level electoral and census data from Mali to show that return migration increased voter turnout and electoral competitiveness, particularly for migration to non-african countries and for localities where non-migrants were poorly educated. Omar Mahmoud et al. (2014) examined legislative election results at the locality level in Moldova, in relation with locality level emigration. The authors showed that the share of votes for the Communist Party were significantly lower in localities with higher emigration rates to Western countries. Finally, some studies analysed individual political preferences in relation with individual or local-level migration. Fidrmuc and Doyle (2006) compared voting behaviour of emigrant and non-emigrant Czech and Polish citizens and found that emigrants living in countries with a long tradition of full or partial democracy and those living in economically advanced countries were more likely to vote for right wing parties in their home countries. Perez-Armendariz and Crow (2010) analysed survey data on political opinions of Mexican residents and found that Mexican respondents who had lived in the U.S. or Canada had a more critical of assessment of Mexican government s record on rights. Mexican respondents with friends or relatives in the U.S. or Canada and those living in high migrant producing communities were more likely to participate in civic organizations and protests. A similar democratic participation effect has been found in Batista and Vicente (2011) using data from Cape Verde. The authors coupled survey data with an experimental framework showing respondents living in high emigration communities had higher demand for political accountability. The effect was bigger for US emigration than for emigration to Portugal and the return migrants enhanced political activism more than current migrants. This paper analyses individual political preferences in relationship with individual migration using survey data from Moldova. The methodology used is closest to Perez- Armendariz and Crow (2010), who also use survey questions on political opinions as outcomes of interest. The geographic focus is closest to Omar Mahmoud et al (2014), who also use data from Moldova and differentiate between Eastern and Western migration. 3 The main contribution of this paper lies in its focus on geopolitical ideas which, to the best of our knowledge, has not yet been analysed in relation with work experience abroad. While public opinion on geopolitics is only of secondary importance in many countries, which may explain why the issue has been neglected by the literature so far, it is of primary importance for countries which are at ideological and geopolitical crossroads, as it is the case of Moldova. Another contribution of this paper is testing whether patterns of political remittances which have been documented in other countries, such as increased political participation or critical 3 The classification of destination countries into East and West is based on the quality of institutions in Omar Mahmoud et al. (2014), while in this paper it is based solely on geography. 3

5 governance assessment, are also observed in the case of Moldova. Finally, we investigate migration effects on a number of domestic policy preferences which have not been tested in other papers. We find that work experience abroad affects individual attitudes towards the two external powers competing for political and ideological influence in Moldova: the European Union and Russia. Work experience in Western countries increases support for accession to the European Union (EU) and decreases support for joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (CU). Work experience in former Soviet countries is correlated with geopolitical preferences, but we find no evidence of causal effects, except on trust in the Russian president Vladimir Putin. Contrarily to Mexico, Mali or Cape Verde, democratic participation and critical governance assessment are not affected by work experience abroad. The same is true for domestic policy preferences. Overall, our results confirm the existence of political remittances, but also emphasize the fact that they are context dependent. This calls for more country-specific studies and more in depth analyses, both theoretical and empirical, of the process by which migrants adopt ideas, values and beliefs and transmit them across the globe. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a brief overview of politics and emigration patterns in Moldova. Data and the empirical strategy are presented in section 3. Regression analysis for the effects of migration on geopolitical opinions are presented in section 4. Regression analysis for the effects of migration on other political opinions are presented in section 5. Section 6 concludes. 2. Politics and emigration patterns in Moldova Moldova is a South Eastern European country of 3.5 million inhabitants, landlocked between Romania, an EU member state, and Ukraine, a former soviet republic whose EU aspirations have resulted in military conflict with Russia. Moldova shares a common language and strong cultural and historic ties with Romania, to which it belonged in the interwar period, before being annexed by the Soviet Union. An important number of Moldovan citizens also hold a Romanian passport and discussions of reunification with Romania have been on-going since its independence from the Soviet Union in Romania is an important economic partner for Moldova, and so is Russia. Around 75% of the population are native Moldovans speaking Romanian at home, and 15 % are native Ukrainians or Russians, speaking Russian at home. The majority of the population can understand and has access to media in both languages. This cultural and geographic position has made Moldova a strategic battle ground for influence between the Kremlin and the West. The EU has invested significant resources in the development of political, economic, and security ties with Moldova. Outcomes of these investments include a number of cooperation agreements aimed at aligning legislation, norms and standards to those of the EU in a wide range of domains, from respect for freedom of the media, rights of minorities and transparent elections, to origin of goods, competition and bankrupt legislation (European Union, 2005). The implementation of reforms has been supported with technical and financial assistance by the 4

6 EU, Moldova s most important donor. Progress is monitored by the EU delegation established in Moldova s capital. The Kremlin has been using a mix of trade and military policies to maintain its economic, political and ideological influence in Moldova. Russia is a major export market for Moldovan agricultural products and its unique gas provider. Consequently, the Kremlin s trade policies such as embargos on agricultural product imports and gas export prices have a certain leverage on Moldovan policy makers. Moreover, Russian troops and military equipment are stationed in Transnistria, a breakaway territory situated at the border with Ukraine, populated by a majority of Russian speakers and receiving important financial support from Russia. Public opinion in Moldova is split into three groups of comparable sizes: those with a strong preference for Moldova following a path towards EU integration, those with a strong preference for closer economic, political and cultural ties with Russia, and those with no strong preference for either of the two options. 4 To a large extent this division is determined by ethnic and socio-demographic factors. Romanian speakers, younger and more educated Moldovans are generally more in favour of EU integration. Russian speakers and older generations are more likely to support close ties with Russia. 5 Economic and political events, both foreign and domestic, such as economic crises in Europe, embargos imposed by Russia and corruption scandals involving leaders of pro-european or pro-russia parties, also affect public support for the European and Russian paths, explaining why the size of the three groups varies non negligibly over time. 6 Another factor which may be influencing public opinion on this issue is emigration. Since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and particularly after the Russian financial crisis in 1998, Moldova has been experiencing massive waves of emigration to Russia and to Western countries. Between six hundred thousand and one million Moldovans currently reside abroad, which represents up to a quarter of the total population and up to 40% of the working age population. Top destinations include Russia, Romania and Italy and other EU countries. Russia is an important destination because no visa is necessary to cross the border, travel by train is relatively inexpensive and a large majority of Moldovans have a good knowledge of the Russian language, customs and norms. An important proportion of migrants to Russia are males working in the construction sector, mostly informally. Italy is the first destination among Western European countries partly due to the similarity between Romanian and Italian languages and a certain cultural proximity. Many Moldovan migrants to Italy are women working in the informal service sector. Younger generations generally emigrate with the objective of settling abroad. Older generations generally emigrate only temporarily, in view of increasing consumption for family members remained at home and accumulating capital for retirement, housing investments and costly social events. This paper focuses on Moldovan 4 Data on the size of these groups for the period can be found in the Barometer of Public Opinion, published yearly by the Institute for Public Policy. 5 For example, the 2015 Barometer of Public Opinion report indicates these patterns (Institute for Public Policy, 2015). 6 According to data from the Barometer of Public Opinion published yearly by the Institute for Public Policy, support for EU integration has fluctuated between 61% in 2002 and 44% in 2012, with a maximum of 76% in Variations of similar size are observed in public support for closer ties with Russia. 5

7 citizens who have worked abroad in the past, but had returned to Moldova at the time of the survey. 3. Data and empirical strategy We use survey data collected in Moldova in 2012 by the Institute of Public Policy, an independent and non-profit research institute. A representative sample of the adult population was selected through stratified two stage random sampling, with districts and size of localities as stratification criteria. 7 A total 1237 individuals were surveyed from 88 rural and urban localities, covering all districts and municipalities. Interviews were conducted at respondents homes. The questionnaire was available in Romanian or Russian and the choice of the language was left to the respondent. The survey included questions on respondent s political opinions, work experience abroad and socio-demographic characteristics. Our aim is to compare political opinions of respondents who have never worked abroad with political opinions of respondents who have worked in either Western countries or former Soviet countries. For dimensions in which differences in opinions are observed, we want to investigate whether they can be attributed to causal effects of having worked abroad. We regress various measures of individual political opinions on migration experience, controlling for individual and district level confounding factors. For identification, we use district level migration networks to Western countries and to former Soviet countries as instruments for individual migration. Dependent Variables Several dimensions of individual political opinions are analysed in relation with migration experience and socio demographic characteristics. They include geopolitical opinions, political participation, critical assessment of governance and domestic policy preferences. Geopolitical opinions are the main focus of our empirical analysis. The choice between a European path, leading to closer economic and political ties with the European Union and possibly EU integration in the long run, and a Russian path, leading to Customs Union (CU) accession and possibly Eurasian Union integration in the long run, has been central in the public debate since Moldova s independence from the Soviet Union. The path which the country will take will have important economic and institutional consequences and is still uncertain at the moment of writing this paper. 8 7 Districts are the main administrative units in Moldova. The country is divided into 32 districts, three municipalities including the capital Chisinau, and two autonomous territorial units: Transnistria and Gagauzia. The two autonomous territorial units are not covered by the survey. 8 The country has been governed by a pro-european coalition since A number of steps towards the European path have been implemented over this period, resulting in the signature of a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement and visa liberalization for short stays with the EU. However, members of the pro-european coalition have been involved in a number of high level corruption scandals, including the theft of one billion dollars, the equivalent of one eighth of GDP, from the country s banking system. New elections will be held in October

8 We analyse several complementary measures of geopolitical opinions. Three central measures are constructed based on how respondents declare that they would vote if referendums on EU accession and CU accession were organized. The dummy variable Pro EU indicates support for EU accession, the dummy variable Pro CU indicates support for joining the CU and the five point scale EU versus CU indicates the position of the respondent on the pro CU pro EU preference spectrum, with higher values indicating stronger pro EU preferences. As complementary measures of geopolitical opinions, we analyse two additional dummy variables: Putin trust, indicating trust in the Russian president Vladimir Putin, and Communist socialist, indicating support for the communist or socialist parties, which are traditionally closer to Russia. Details of how these variables were constructed and descriptive statistics can be found in Table A2. We measure democratic participation with the dummy Vote, indicating whether the respondent would vote in Parliamentary elections. 9 Critical assessment of the democratic process is measured with the dummy People govern, indicating whether the respondent believes that the country is governed by people s will. Critical assessment of governance is measured by the scale variable Satisfaction governance, indicating respondent s satisfaction with policies implemented by the government in twelve policy areas. Details of how these variables were constructed and descriptive statistics can be found in Table A3. Our measures of domestic policy preferences indicate which policies are considered top priorities in order to improve the socio-economic situation in the country. Respondents could choose up to three policies from a list of ten. For each policy, we created a dummy variable taking the value one if it was chosen as a top three priority by the respondent. Details of how these variables were constructed and descriptive statistics can be found in Table A4. Explanatory variables of interest Our central explanatory variables are dummies representing work experience abroad. Returnee East indicates work experience in a former Soviet country, Returnee West indicates work experience in a Western country and Returnee East and West indicates work experience in both former Soviet and Western countries. Destinations countries were grouped into East and West based on their geographical position with respect to Moldova. The reference category are respondents who have never worked abroad. Details of how these variables were constructed and descriptive statistics can be found in Table A1. 9 Moldova is a Parliamentary Republic and Parliamentary elections are the most important national level elections. 7

9 Control Variables Standard control variables representing individual socio-demographic and ethnic characteristics, which are likely to affect both migration decisions and political preferences, are included in all regressions. Gender, age, language, education, revenue, and rural place of residence are controlled for in all regressions. Robustness checks include internet access, using internet as the main source of information, ethnicity, having a white collar job and being a farmer as additional controls. Details of how these variables were constructed and descriptive statistics can be found in Table A5. Summary Statistics Table 1 summarises individual socio-demographic characteristics according to work experience abroad. It indicates that individuals who have worked in the West are in a higher proportion Romanian speakers, living in urban areas, with higher education and higher revenues. Respondents who have worked in the East are more likely to be men without higher education and living in rural areas. Few individuals who were above 60 at the time of the survey have ever worked abroad. Table 2 summarises individual geopolitical preferences according to work experience abroad. It indicates that return migrants from the West are significantly more likely to support EU accession, while return migrants from the East are significantly more likely to support CU accession. Table 1 Socio-demographic characteristics of returnees and non-migrants Non migrants Returnees East Returnees West Returnees East and West Pearson s Chi Square test of independence Sample size Female (%) *** Revenue (scale 1-12) *** Romanian language (%) ** Age *** Rural (%) *** Completed higher education (%) Note: *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05. Romanian language indicates that the respondent chose to conduct the interview in Romanian. 8

10 Table 2 Geopolitical preferences of returnees and non-migrants Non Returnees migrants East Returnees West Returnees East and West Pearson s Chi Square test of independence Sample size EU accession (%) 26.61*** For Against Do not know or would not participate CU accession (%) 34.75*** For Against Do not know or would not participate Note: *** p<0.01. EU accession and CU accession respectively indicate how the respondent would vote in referendums on European Union and on Customs Union (with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) accession. As socio-demographic characteristics are correlated with migration experience and they are also likely to affect political opinions, they need to be controlled for when analysing the effects of migration on political opinions. Regression results are presented and discussed in the following sections. 4. Regression results: geopolitical opinions and work experience abroad This section presents regression results in which geopolitical preferences are explained by work experience abroad and control variables. Baseline results which do not deal with migration endogeneity are presented in section 4.1. The identification strategy and IV results are presented in section Baseline regressions We start by analysing the effects of work experience abroad on the probability to support EU and CU accession, controlling for socio-demographic confounding factors. Logistic regression coefficients are presented in Table 3. They indicate that respondents who have had a working experience in the West are more likely to support EU accession compared to respondents who have never worked abroad. Likewise, return migrants from the East are more likely to support CU accession. Both effects are significant at the 1% level. No effect is found for the small category of respondents who have worked in both Eastern and Western destinations. Removing this small control group does not affect the coefficients of other explanatory variables. Control variables show that younger, more educated and Romanian speaking respondents are significantly more likely to support EU accession. Language has the highest coefficient in terms of size. Gender, revenue and living in a rural area are not correlated with geopolitical preferences. 9

11 Table 3 Support for European Union and Customs Union accession and work experience abroad. Pro EU Pro CU Pro EU Pro CU Returnee East * 0.706*** * 0.733*** (0.234) (0.186) (0.231) (0.176) Returnee West 0.804*** *** (0.290) (0.282) (0.282) (0.283) Returnee East and West (0.440) (0.379) Higher education 0.564*** ** 0.568*** ** (0.153) (0.142) (0.150) (0.139) Romanian language 1.657*** *** 1.666*** *** (0.216) (0.320) (0.210) (0.315) Age *** 0.122* *** 0.127** (0.041) (0.063) (0.041) (0.063) Revenue (0.035) (0.031) (0.035) (0.032) Female (0.127) (0.149) (0.122) (0.144) Rural (0.189) (0.208) (0.186) (0.206) Constant ** 1.330*** ** 1.297*** (0.337) (0.322) (0.348) (0.316) Chi P N 1,192 1,192 1,192 1,192 * p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Logistic regressions. Robust standard errors clustered at the district level in parentheses. Returnee East, returnee West and returnee East and West are dummies for work experience in a former Soviet country, a Western country and both former Soviet and Western countries respectively. Pro EU and pro CU are dummies indicating that the respondent would vote in favour of accession to the European Union and Customs Union (with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) respectively. Romanian language indicates that the respondent chose to conduct the interview in Romanian. Very similar results are obtained when using the EU versus CU five point scale instead of the dummy variables Pro EU and Pro CU (Table B1). Table 4 presents regression results for the dependent variables Communist socialist and Putin trust. Results show that return migrants from the West are less likely to support the communist or socialist parties, but equally likely to trust Vladimir Putin. Revenue, higher education and Romanian language are strongly negatively associated with supporting the communist and socialist parties. Return migrants from former Soviet countries have higher trust levels in Vladimir Putin. Speaking Romanian and having higher education are negatively associated with trust in Vladimir Putin. 10 Although the variables explained in these regressions represent dimensions of individual geopolitical ideas which are to some extent different from support for EU or CU accession, results are broadly consistent. 10 If instead of the age variable we include a dummy for people older than 60, its coefficient is positive and significant at the 5% level, indicating that the oldest generation are the most likely to declare they would vote communist or socialist. 10

12 Table 4. Support for the communist and socialist parties, trust in Vladimir Putin and work experience abroad. Communist socialist Putin trust Returnee East ** 0.561** (0.203) (0.203) (0.216) (0.219) Returnee West *** *** (0.271) (0.274) (0.446) (0.447) Returnee East and West *** (0.528) (0.347) Higher education *** *** * * (0.193) (0.190) (0.150) (0.151) Romanian language *** *** *** *** (0.244) (0.242) (0.447) (0.431) Age (0.068) (0.067) (0.071) (0.069) Revenue ** ** (0.036) (0.035) (0.038) (0.039) Female (0.189) (0.189) (0.159) (0.151) Rural (0.137) (0.137) (0.200) (0.190) Constant 0.646* 0.611* 2.970*** 2.865*** (0.342) (0.340) (0.460) (0.470) Chi P N 1,192 1,192 1,192 1,192 * p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Logistic regressions; robust standard errors clustered at district level in parentheses. Returnee East, returnee West and returnee East and West are dummies for work experience in a former Soviet country, a Western country and both former Soviet and Western countries respectively. Communist socialist is a dummy indicating that the respondent would vote for the communist or socialist party in legislative elections. Putin trust is a dummy indicating that the respondent trusts Vladimir Putin very much or to some extent. Romanian language indicates that the respondent chose to conduct the interview in Romanian. Tables B2 and B3 present regression results with additional individual level control variables. Results indicate that having internet access and using internet as the main source of information are strongly associated with being more in favour of EU accession, while they have no effect on support for CU accession. This suggest that any eventual effect of migration on geopolitical opinions does not operate through higher revenues financing access to new information through the internet. Being a farmer and having a white collar job are weakly associated with more pro EU attitudes. Support for EU accession is significantly higher among ethnic Moldovans and ethnic Romanians, while support for CU accession is significantly higher among ethnic Russians. The effects of work experience abroad are not altered by the inclusion of these additional controls. The results presented in this section cannot be interpreted as causal effects of work experience abroad because unobserved individual characteristics may drive both migration decisions and geopolitical opinions. In particular, pro West individuals may be more likely to look for jobs in the West, while pro-russia individuals may be more likely to look for jobs in Russia. In other words, regressions may suffer from an omitted variable bias, because we do not have measures of individual political opinions before emigration has taken place. While there is extensive evidence indicating that the large majority of Moldovan emigration is economically and not politically motivated, we cannot rule out the possibility that the 11

13 coefficients presented in this section are at least partly driven by migrant self-selection. 4.2 IV regressions Our identification strategy consists in instrumenting individual migration with district level emigrant networks in Eastern and Western destinations. Networks are an important determinant of migration flows. By providing valuable information and contacts for finding jobs, housing and dealing with administrative hurdles, they reduce the costs and the risks of migration for individuals with emigrants in their personal network. 11 Remittances are sometimes used to finance emigration of other family members, while family reunification policies reduce administrative barriers to emigration for individuals with close family members working abroad. When the economic benefits of migration are visible to others, for example in the form of better quality housing or consumption of luxury goods, incentives to emigrate increase even for individuals with no emigrants in their personal network. We therefore expect individuals living in localities with stronger emigration rates to be more likely to emigrate. This link should be destination-specific, i.e. higher emigrant networks to Western countries in the locality should increase the probability for an individual to work in a Western country, and the same should be true for Eastern countries. We expect emigrant networks in the West to play a more important role in determining individual migration than migrant networks in former Soviet countries because financial, administrative and informational barriers to migration are stronger for Western destinations. District level data on the number of persons leaving abroad by country of destination was taken from the 2004 population census. When constructing the measures for emigrant networks, the number of emigrants in each district was divided by the district population in order to proxy the probability for an individual to personally know someone established abroad or to observe the economic benefits of migration. Destination countries were grouped into East and West using the same classification as for the individual migration. We thus constructed two instruments, district diaspora West (2004) and district diaspora East (2004) for the two endogeneous explanatory variables of interest, return East and return West. In absence of a third instrument, we cannot estimate a separate causal effect for the endogenous dummy variable Return East and West. This is a minor limitation, as the group of respondents who have worked in both eastern and western destinations only represents 30 out of 1237 observations, and this particular treatment, which did not show any robust effects in baseline regressions, is not a major point of interest for this paper. Baseline regressions have shown that including this treatment or leaving it out has no effect on the coefficients of other variables, therefore we drop this treatment from the IV regressions. 12 First stage regression results are presented in Table C1. Both instruments are highly significant. As expected, Western diaspora has a higher influence on individual migration than 11 Social norms for mutual help in Moldova often lead to second and even third degree network connections providing logistic, administrative and financial help to new coming migrants in destination countries. 12 The respective observations remain included in the sample, thus the control group includes 904 individuals who have never worked abroad and 30 individuals who have worked in both Eastern and Western destinations. 12

14 Eastern Diaspora. An important diaspora network in the West highly increases the probability to have worked in the west, and it has a lower but significant negative effect on the probability to have work in the East. An important diaspora network in the East increases the probability to have worked in the East. The first condition for the validity of instruments is thus satisfied. The second condition for the validity of instruments, i.e. lack of correlation with the error term, cannot formally be tested because the model is just identified. We will therefore discuss its plausibility based on theoretical arguments and additional robustness checks. Several possible issues with the validity of the two instruments come to mind. The first one is the possibility that emigrant networks affect the economy at the district level, for example through labour market or local market effects, with possible consequences on individual political preferences. In other words, diaspora networks might not be a valid instrument if they are correlated with omitted variables representing district level economic factors. In order to check whether this may be an issue, we add district-level indicators of economic activity to the explanatory variables in baseline regressions. Results indicate that district level economic indicators are not correlated with geopolitical preferences, thus they are unlikely to represent a significant omitted variable (Table B4). A second possible concern could be that district level demographic or ethnic distribution is correlated with both individual migration decisions and geopolitical preferences. Tables B5 and B6 show that district level ethnic and demographic composition do not affect individual foreign policy preferences when individual sociodemographics are controlled for. One final and important validity concern is the possibility that diaspora networks affect individual geopolitical opinions not only by affecting individual migration, but also by spreading relevant information at the district level. Such local diffusion of social remittances has indeed been documented in other contexts. In order to check whether this may be a concern, we constructed a measure of geopolitical preferences in respondent s district and checked whether it is correlated with the individual geopolitical preferences. 13 We have tested the effect of district level geopolitical preferences both on the whole sample, and on the sample of individuals who have never migrated. Results presented in Table B7 indicate that geopolitical preferences in the district are not significant predictors of individual geopolitical preferences. In one specification only is the district average significant at the 10% level. The findings that district level geopolitical preferences have no effect on individual geopolitical opinions once individual migration is controlled for, and that they have no effect on geopolitical opinions for the individuals who have never migrated are consistent with the hypothesis that migrant networks affect individual geopolitical opinions through the individual migration decision rather than through diffusion of ideas at the locality level. We are therefore confident that district migrant networks are valid instruments for the individual migration decision. As an additional robustness check however, we will control for district level geopolitical preferences in IV regressions. Table 5 presents IV regression results, where the probabilities of having worked in the West and East predicted in first stage regressions are included instead of the original migration variables. An interesting result comes out of these regressions. Work experience in former 13 The measure is constructed as the average EU versus CU scale in respondent s district, excluding respondent s own observation. 13

15 Soviet countries loses its significance for predicting geopolitical preferences, while work experience in the West remains significant, with the expected sign. Robustness checks indicate that these results hold when controlling for district-level geopolitical preferences (Table B8) and when using an alternative estimation method (Table B9). 14 These estimates suggest that the correlation between work experience in former Soviet countries and support for CU accession is mainly driven by migrant self-selection, while the correlation between pro EU preferences and work experience in the West is also driven by the effects of such work experiences on political preferences. Table 5 Support for European Union and Customs Union accession and work experience abroad (IV second stage) Pro EU (IV logit) Pro CU (IV logit) EU versus CU (2SLS) Returnee East IV (0.987) (1.349) (0.751) Returnee West IV 5.703** ** 4.211*** (2.543) (2.604) (1.409) Higher education 0.627*** *** 0.406*** (0.144) (0.159) (0.097) Romanian language 1.426*** *** 1.099*** (0.242) (0.307) (0.195) Age * (0.097) (0.160) (0.082) Revenue (0.038) (0.039) (0.026) Female ** (0.239) (0.347) (0.186) Rural (0.185) (0.218) (0.139) Constant *** (0.589) (0.953) (0.519) Chi P R-squared 0.16 N 1,192 1,192 1,186 * p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Robust standard errors clustered at the district level in parentheses. Returnee East IV and returnee West IV are predicted probabilities to have worked in a former Soviet country and in a Western country respectively (first stage regressions in Table C1). Pro EU and pro CU are dummies indicating that the respondent would vote in favour of accession to the European Union and Customs Union (with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) respectively. EU versus CU is a five point measure indicating respondents position on the pro CU-pro EU preference spectrum. Romanian language indicates that the respondent chose to conduct the interview in Romanian. How can we explain the finding that work experience in the West affects migrants geopolitical preferences, while no causal effects are found for work experience in the former Soviet Union? Consider a theoretical framework in which rational voters have incomplete information on the effects of various policy regimes on their payoff. Such voters use the information at their disposal to choose the policy regime which maximises their expected payoff. A life event such as work experience abroad may alter an individual s preferred policy regime through two different mechanisms: by changing the information available to the 14 The alternative method is STATA s etregress command. 14

16 individual or by changing the effects of certain policy regimes on the individual payoff. These mechanisms suggest two possible explanations for our findings. The first explanation is related to changes in information for migrant individuals. Living in the West implies exposure to institutions, policies, values and norms which are very different from those prevalent in Moldova. Observing the functioning of Western societies, integrating social or professional networks and having access to Western media may represent information shocks which are sufficient for causing changes in migrants political opinions. By contrast, due to the legacy of the Soviet Union, institutions, policies, values and norms prevalent in many former Soviet country are still relatively similar today. Therefore, work experience in another former Soviet country may generally not represent a significant information shock. In other words, political opinions are more likely to evolve when migrating to a country with sufficiently different institutions, policies and norms. The second explanation is related to changes in payoff from certain policy regimes for migrant individuals. Work experience in the EU may increase individual payoff from free labour mobility with EU countries, while work experience in former Soviet countries may increase individual payoff from free labour with CU countries. Indeed, work experience in a foreign country is likely to increase the net benefits of re-emigrating to the same country, by reducing uncertainty, linguistic barriers, increasing relevant networks and job market experience. One important difference between the consequences of EU and CU accession for Moldovan citizens is that EU accession would reduce substantial labour mobility barriers to EU countries, while CU accession would have no such effects since labour mobility barriers are already low for former Soviet countries. 15 This may explain why individuals who have worked in the EU have higher support for EU integration, while individuals who have worked in the East do not become more in favourable to CU accession. As an attempt to investigate the relevance of these two explanations, we analysed respondents answers to survey questions asking them to name the most important benefits of joining the EU and the CU respectively. Tables D1 and D2 show the distribution of responses to these questions according to respondent s migration experience. Several points are worth mentioning. In the case of EU accession, the most frequent responses are visa liberalisation, I do not know and there are no benefits. In the case of CU accession, the most frequent responses are cheaper energy, I do not know and there are no benefits. The distribution of responses indicates that free labour mobility is one important reason for supporting EU accession, while it is not the case for CU accession. Consistent with our second explanation, return migrants from the West are more likely to believe that visa liberalisation is the main advantage of joining the EU (26.5 % of them do so, compared to 17.1 % for non-migrants). Also consistent with our explanations, return migrants from the West are less likely to believe that there are no benefits (14.5% of them do so compared to 23.1% for non-migrants) or to state that they do not know what the benefits are (9.6% of them do so compared to 24.8% for nonmigrants). As far as the advantages for joining the CU are concerned, only a small minority of respondents consider visa liberalisation to be the main benefit and this response is not more 15 At the time of the survey, visas were needed for Moldovan citizens visiting EU countries, even for short stays. 15

17 frequent among Eastern returnees. Cheaper energy is also chosen with a similar frequency by returnees from the East and non-migrants. It is the case however that return migrants from the East are less likely to believe there are no benefits of joining the CU (10% compared to 15% for non-migrants) and that they do not know what the benefits are (16% compared to 27% for non-migrants). These answer distributions are consistent with our hypothesis that return migrants from the West are more likely to support EU accession because their experience increases the valuation of free labour mobility with EU countries. However, given the low number of observations for each answer category, statistical tests cannot be performed in view of providing evidence of causal effects of migration on perceived benefits of EU and CU accession. This data limitation calls for more research in view of uncovering the mechanisms through which migration leads to changes in geopolitical preferences. Table 6. Support for the communist and socialist parties, trust in Vladimir Putin and work experience abroad (IV second stage). Communist socialist Putin trust Returnee East IV ** (1.067) (1.238) Returnee West IV * (2.192) (2.309) Higher education *** (0.222) (0.156) Romanian language *** *** (0.235) (0.481) Age (0.132) (0.152) Revenue * (0.039) (0.047) Female (0.328) (0.300) Rural (0.157) (0.182) Constant ** (0.704) (0.750) Chi P N 1,192 1,192 Note: * p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Logistic regressions, robust standard errors clustered at district level in parentheses. Returnee East IV and returnee West IV are predicted probabilities to have worked in a former Soviet country and in a Western country respectively (first stage regressions in C1). Communist socialist is a dummy indicating that the respondent would vote for the communist or socialist party in legislative elections. Putin trust is a dummy indicating that the respondent trusts Vladimir Putin very much or to some extent. Romanian language indicates that the respondent chose to conduct the interview in Romanian. Finally, we investigate the causal effects of migration on the other measures of geopolitical opinions: support for the communist or socialist party and trust in Vladimir Putin. Results presented in Table 6 indicate that western migration marginally decreases support for the communist and socialist parties and it has no effect on trust in Vladimir Putin. Eastern migration does not affect support for communist and socialist parties, but has a positive and significant effect on trust in Vladimir Putin. This result may be at odds with the lack of effect of Eastern 16

18 migration on support for closer relationships with Russia through CU accession. One possible explanation is that information exposure on Vladimir Putin s image in Russia is sufficiently different to trigger changes in the perceived image of this politician, while information on expected effects of CU accession is not sufficiently different to affect support for this policy regime. 5. Regression analysis: other political opinions and work experience abroad This section presents a brief analysis of the relationship between other policy preferences and work experience abroad, both abstracting from and taking into account migration endogeneity. Table 7 shows regression results for voting, critical assessment of the democratic process and satisfaction with governance performance. Baseline results indicate that respondents who have worked in a former Soviet country are less likely to vote, while respondents who have worked in the West are more critical towards the democratic process and less satisfied with governance performance. IV results show that these effects disappear when controlling for migration endogeneity, indicating that differences in political participation and critical governance assessment between migrants and non-migrants are likely to be driven by self-selection. Regression results for domestic policy preferences are presented in tables B10 and B11. They indicate that work experience abroad is generally not significant for predicting which policies are viewed as top priorities, with two exceptions. Return migrants from the West are more likely to declare that encouraging foreign direct investment is a top priority, and the same is true for improving the functioning of legislation. These coefficients however lose their significance when controlling for migration endogeneity, suggesting that they are also driven by self-selection. These results suggest that while migrants are differ from non-migrants in terms of their political participation, critical governance assessment and domestic policy priorities, observed differences are likely to be driven by self-selection rather than by the migration experience. 17

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: REGIONAL OVERVIEW

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: REGIONAL OVERVIEW ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: REGIONAL OVERVIEW 2nd Wave (Spring 2017) OPEN Neighbourhood Communicating for a stronger partnership: connecting with citizens across the Eastern Neighbourhood June 2017 TABLE OF

More information

LICOS Discussion Paper Series

LICOS Discussion Paper Series LICOS Discussion Paper Series Discussion Paper 381/2016 Do migrants think differently? Evidence from East European and post-soviet states Ruxanda Berlinschi and Ani Harutyunyan Faculty of Economics And

More information

Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment

Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment Catia Batista Trinity College Dublin and IZA Pedro C. Vicente Trinity College Dublin, CSAE-Oxford and BREAD Second International

More information

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: BELARUS

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: BELARUS ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: BELARUS 2 nd Wave (Spring 2017) OPEN Neighbourhood Communicating for a stronger partnership: connecting with citizens across the Eastern Neighbourhood June 2017 1/44 TABLE OF CONTENTS

More information

Supplementary information for the article:

Supplementary information for the article: Supplementary information for the article: Happy moves? Assessing the link between life satisfaction and emigration intentions Artjoms Ivlevs Contents 1. Summary statistics of variables p. 2 2. Country

More information

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: AZERBAIJAN

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: AZERBAIJAN ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: AZERBAIJAN 2 nd Wave (Spring 2017) OPEN Neighbourhood Communicating for a stronger partnership: connecting with citizens across the Eastern Neighbourhood June 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS

More information

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: ARMENIA

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: ARMENIA ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: ARMENIA 2 nd Wave (Spring 2017) OPEN Neighbourhood Communicating for a stronger partnership: connecting with citizens across the Eastern Neighbourhood June 2017 ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT,

More information

Labour Migration and Network Effects in Moldova

Labour Migration and Network Effects in Moldova DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Uppsala University Master Thesis (D-uppsats) Author: Lisa Andersson Supervisor: Henry Ohlsson Spring 2008 Labour Migration and Network Effects in Moldova Abstract This study investigates

More information

Permanent emigration from Moldova: Estimate and Implications for Diaspora Policy

Permanent emigration from Moldova: Estimate and Implications for Diaspora Policy Policy Briefing Series [PB/05/2015] Permanent emigration from Moldova: Estimate and Implications for Diaspora Policy Matthias Luecke, Vladimir Ganta, Joerg Radeke Berlin/Chişinău, June 2015 Outline 1.

More information

Note by the CIS Statistical Committee

Note by the CIS Statistical Committee Distr.: General 27 August 2014 English Economic Commission for Europe Conference of European Statisticians Work Session on Migration Statistics Chisinau, Republic of Moldova 10-12 September 2014 Item 2

More information

inhabitants Capital: Сhisinau / Kishinev (750,000 inhabitants)

inhabitants Capital: Сhisinau / Kishinev (750,000 inhabitants) THE MAIN TRENDS OF THE MIGRATIONAL PROCESSES IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA Valeriu MOSNEAGA Moldova State University Republic of Moldova Area: 33,845 km 2 Population: 4.2 millions inhabitants Capital: Сhisinau

More information

The political economy of electricity market liberalization: a cross-country approach

The political economy of electricity market liberalization: a cross-country approach The political economy of electricity market liberalization: a cross-country approach Erkan Erdogdu PhD Candidate The 30 th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference California Room, Capital Hilton Hotel, Washington

More information

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: GEORGIA

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: GEORGIA ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: GEORGIA 2 nd Wave (Spring 2017) OPEN Neighbourhood Communicating for a stronger partnership: connecting with citizens across the Eastern Neighbourhood June 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS

More information

Immigration and Internal Mobility in Canada Appendices A and B. Appendix A: Two-step Instrumentation strategy: Procedure and detailed results

Immigration and Internal Mobility in Canada Appendices A and B. Appendix A: Two-step Instrumentation strategy: Procedure and detailed results Immigration and Internal Mobility in Canada Appendices A and B by Michel Beine and Serge Coulombe This version: February 2016 Appendix A: Two-step Instrumentation strategy: Procedure and detailed results

More information

Moving Up the Ladder? The Impact of Migration Experience on Occupational Mobility in Albania

Moving Up the Ladder? The Impact of Migration Experience on Occupational Mobility in Albania Moving Up the Ladder? The Impact of Migration Experience on Occupational Mobility in Albania Calogero Carletto and Talip Kilic Development Research Group, The World Bank Prepared for the Fourth IZA/World

More information

262 Index. D demand shocks, 146n demographic variables, 103tn

262 Index. D demand shocks, 146n demographic variables, 103tn Index A Africa, 152, 167, 173 age Filipino characteristics, 85 household heads, 59 Mexican migrants, 39, 40 Philippines migrant households, 94t 95t nonmigrant households, 96t 97t premigration income effects,

More information

44 th Congress of European Regional Science Association August 2004, Porto, Portugal

44 th Congress of European Regional Science Association August 2004, Porto, Portugal 44 th Congress of European Regional Science Association 25-29 August 2004, Porto, Portugal EU REFERENDA IN THE BALTICS: UNDERSTANDING THE RESULTS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL Mihails HAZANS Faculty of Economics

More information

An Ethnic or (Geo)Political Conflict? The Case of the Republic of Moldova

An Ethnic or (Geo)Political Conflict? The Case of the Republic of Moldova An Ethnic or (Geo)Political Conflict? The Case of the Republic of Moldova Author: Dr. Bartłomiej Zdaniuk, Institute of Political Science, Faculty of Journalism and Political Science, University of Warsaw

More information

Roles of children and elderly in migration decision of adults: case from rural China

Roles of children and elderly in migration decision of adults: case from rural China Roles of children and elderly in migration decision of adults: case from rural China Extended abstract: Urbanization has been taking place in many of today s developing countries, with surging rural-urban

More information

Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Sending and Southern Receiving Countries

Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Sending and Southern Receiving Countries Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Sending and Southern Receiving Countries Giovanni Peri (UC Davis) Frederic Docquier (Universite Catholique de Louvain) Christian Dustmann (University College London)

More information

CONSUMER PROTECTION IN THE EU

CONSUMER PROTECTION IN THE EU Special Eurobarometer European Commission CONSUMER PROTECTION IN THE EU Special Eurobarometer / Wave 59.2-193 - European Opinion Research Group EEIG Fieldwork: May-June 2003 Publication: November 2003

More information

Ohio State University

Ohio State University Fake News Did Have a Significant Impact on the Vote in the 2016 Election: Original Full-Length Version with Methodological Appendix By Richard Gunther, Paul A. Beck, and Erik C. Nisbet Ohio State University

More information

Publicizing malfeasance:

Publicizing malfeasance: Publicizing malfeasance: When media facilitates electoral accountability in Mexico Horacio Larreguy, John Marshall and James Snyder Harvard University May 1, 2015 Introduction Elections are key for political

More information

ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers

ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers Results and Methodology Executive Summary Labour Migration Branch Conditions of Work and Equality Department Department of Statistics ILO Global Estimates

More information

Gender preference and age at arrival among Asian immigrant women to the US

Gender preference and age at arrival among Asian immigrant women to the US Gender preference and age at arrival among Asian immigrant women to the US Ben Ost a and Eva Dziadula b a Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 South Morgan UH718 M/C144 Chicago,

More information

Pedro Telhado Pereira 1 Universidade Nova de Lisboa, CEPR and IZA. Lara Patrício Tavares 2 Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Pedro Telhado Pereira 1 Universidade Nova de Lisboa, CEPR and IZA. Lara Patrício Tavares 2 Universidade Nova de Lisboa Are Migrants Children like their Parents, their Cousins, or their Neighbors? The Case of Largest Foreign Population in France * (This version: February 2000) Pedro Telhado Pereira 1 Universidade Nova de

More information

PREDICTORS OF CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG MIGRANT AND NON- MIGRANT COUPLES IN NIGERIA

PREDICTORS OF CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG MIGRANT AND NON- MIGRANT COUPLES IN NIGERIA PREDICTORS OF CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG MIGRANT AND NON- MIGRANT COUPLES IN NIGERIA Odusina Emmanuel Kolawole and Adeyemi Olugbenga E. Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Federal University,

More information

English Deficiency and the Native-Immigrant Wage Gap

English Deficiency and the Native-Immigrant Wage Gap DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 7019 English Deficiency and the Native-Immigrant Wage Gap Alfonso Miranda Yu Zhu November 2012 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor

More information

DETERMINANTS OF IMMIGRANTS EARNINGS IN THE ITALIAN LABOUR MARKET: THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

DETERMINANTS OF IMMIGRANTS EARNINGS IN THE ITALIAN LABOUR MARKET: THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND COUNTRY OF ORIGIN DETERMINANTS OF IMMIGRANTS EARNINGS IN THE ITALIAN LABOUR MARKET: THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Aim of the Paper The aim of the present work is to study the determinants of immigrants

More information

Remittances and the Brain Drain: Evidence from Microdata for Sub-Saharan Africa

Remittances and the Brain Drain: Evidence from Microdata for Sub-Saharan Africa Remittances and the Brain Drain: Evidence from Microdata for Sub-Saharan Africa Julia Bredtmann 1, Fernanda Martinez Flores 1,2, and Sebastian Otten 1,2,3 1 RWI, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

More information

WP 2015: 9. Education and electoral participation: Reported versus actual voting behaviour. Ivar Kolstad and Arne Wiig VOTE

WP 2015: 9. Education and electoral participation: Reported versus actual voting behaviour. Ivar Kolstad and Arne Wiig VOTE WP 2015: 9 Reported versus actual voting behaviour Ivar Kolstad and Arne Wiig VOTE Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI) is an independent, non-profit research institution and a major international centre in

More information

Volume 35, Issue 1. An examination of the effect of immigration on income inequality: A Gini index approach

Volume 35, Issue 1. An examination of the effect of immigration on income inequality: A Gini index approach Volume 35, Issue 1 An examination of the effect of immigration on income inequality: A Gini index approach Brian Hibbs Indiana University South Bend Gihoon Hong Indiana University South Bend Abstract This

More information

Patterns of immigration in the new immigration countries

Patterns of immigration in the new immigration countries Patterns of immigration in the new immigration countries 2 Mediterranean and Eastern European countries as new immigration destinations in the European Union (IDEA) VI European Commission Framework Programme

More information

AmericasBarometer Insights: 2014 Number 105

AmericasBarometer Insights: 2014 Number 105 AmericasBarometer Insights: 2014 Number 105 Bridging Inter American Divides: Views of the U.S. Across the Americas By laura.e.silliman@vanderbilt.edu Vanderbilt University Executive Summary. The United

More information

How s Life in Belgium?

How s Life in Belgium? How s Life in Belgium? November 2017 Relative to other countries, Belgium performs above or close to the OECD average across the different wellbeing dimensions. Household net adjusted disposable income

More information

Benefit levels and US immigrants welfare receipts

Benefit levels and US immigrants welfare receipts 1 Benefit levels and US immigrants welfare receipts 1970 1990 by Joakim Ruist Department of Economics University of Gothenburg Box 640 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden joakim.ruist@economics.gu.se telephone: +46

More information

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: MOLDOVA

ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: MOLDOVA ANNUAL SURVEY REPORT: MOLDOVA 3 rd Wave (Spring 2018) OPEN Neighbourhood Communicating for a stronger partnership: connecting with citizens across the Eastern Neighbourhood June 2018 1/45 TABLE OF CONTENTS

More information

INTERNAL SECURITY. Publication: November 2011

INTERNAL SECURITY. Publication: November 2011 Special Eurobarometer 371 European Commission INTERNAL SECURITY REPORT Special Eurobarometer 371 / Wave TNS opinion & social Fieldwork: June 2011 Publication: November 2011 This survey has been requested

More information

Naturalisation and on-the-job training participation. of first-generation immigrants in Germany

Naturalisation and on-the-job training participation. of first-generation immigrants in Germany Naturalisation and on-the-job training participation of first-generation immigrants in Germany Friederike von Haaren * NIW Hannover and Leibniz Universität Hannover This version: January 31 st, 2014 -

More information

The best practices on managing circular and return migration in countries of origin, transit and destination

The best practices on managing circular and return migration in countries of origin, transit and destination 24th OSCE Economic and Environmental Forum Strengthening stability and security through co-operation on good governance SECOND PREPARATORY MEETING Berlin, 19-20 May 2016 Session 6, Ms. Jana Costachi, Global

More information

Migration, remittances and development: African perspective

Migration, remittances and development: African perspective Migration, remittances and development: African perspective Flore Gubert, IRD, DIAL and PSE Improving Migration, Remittances and diaspora data: SDGs and the Global Compact on Migration, Paris, January

More information

THREE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP NEIGHBOURS: UKRAINE, MOLDOVA AND BELARUS

THREE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP NEIGHBOURS: UKRAINE, MOLDOVA AND BELARUS THREE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP NEIGHBOURS: UKRAINE, MOLDOVA AND BELARUS The EU s Eastern Partnership policy, inaugurated in 2009, covers six post-soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova

More information

5. Destination Consumption

5. Destination Consumption 5. Destination Consumption Enabling migrants propensity to consume Meiyan Wang and Cai Fang Introduction The 2014 Central Economic Working Conference emphasised that China s economy has a new normal, characterised

More information

Labor Migration in the Kyrgyz Republic and Its Social and Economic Consequences

Labor Migration in the Kyrgyz Republic and Its Social and Economic Consequences Network of Asia-Pacific Schools and Institutes of Public Administration and Governance (NAPSIPAG) Annual Conference 200 Beijing, PRC, -7 December 200 Theme: The Role of Public Administration in Building

More information

How s Life in Mexico?

How s Life in Mexico? How s Life in Mexico? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Mexico has a mixed performance across the different well-being dimensions. At 61% in 2016, Mexico s employment rate was below the OECD

More information

5. Trends in Ukrainian Migration and Shortterm

5. Trends in Ukrainian Migration and Shortterm 68 5. Trends in Ukrainian Migration and Shortterm Work Trips Sergei I. Pirozhkov * Introduction This report presents the results of a first-ever research project on migration from Ukraine for the purpose

More information

How s Life in Hungary?

How s Life in Hungary? How s Life in Hungary? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Hungary has a mixed performance across the different well-being dimensions. It has one of the lowest levels of household net adjusted

More information

LABOUR-MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN OECD-COUNTRIES: WHAT EXPLANATIONS FIT THE DATA?

LABOUR-MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN OECD-COUNTRIES: WHAT EXPLANATIONS FIT THE DATA? LABOUR-MARKET INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN OECD-COUNTRIES: WHAT EXPLANATIONS FIT THE DATA? By Andreas Bergh (PhD) Associate Professor in Economics at Lund University and the Research Institute of Industrial

More information

Workshop on International Migration Statistics. Anna Di Bartolomeo. 18 June 2013

Workshop on International Migration Statistics. Anna Di Bartolomeo. 18 June 2013 IX Migration Summer School: Theories, Methods and Policies Workshop on International Migration Statistics Anna Di Bartolomeo (anna.dibartolomeo@eui.eu) 18 June 2013 1 Outline Measuring migration: key concepts

More information

How s Life in the United States?

How s Life in the United States? How s Life in the United States? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, the United States performs well in terms of material living conditions: the average household net adjusted disposable income

More information

Corruption and business procedures: an empirical investigation

Corruption and business procedures: an empirical investigation Corruption and business procedures: an empirical investigation S. Roy*, Department of Economics, High Point University, High Point, NC - 27262, USA. Email: sroy@highpoint.edu Abstract We implement OLS,

More information

Migrant population of the UK

Migrant population of the UK BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP8070, 3 August 2017 Migrant population of the UK By Vyara Apostolova & Oliver Hawkins Contents: 1. Who counts as a migrant? 2. Migrant population in the UK 3. Migrant population

More information

How s Life in the Slovak Republic?

How s Life in the Slovak Republic? How s Life in the Slovak Republic? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, the average performance of the Slovak Republic across the different well-being dimensions is very mixed. Material conditions,

More information

The Changing Relationship between Fertility and Economic Development: Evidence from 256 Sub-National European Regions Between 1996 to 2010

The Changing Relationship between Fertility and Economic Development: Evidence from 256 Sub-National European Regions Between 1996 to 2010 The Changing Relationship between Fertility and Economic Development: Evidence from 256 Sub-National European Regions Between 996 to 2 Authors: Jonathan Fox, Freie Universitaet; Sebastian Klüsener MPIDR;

More information

THE EFFECTS OF PARENTAL MIGRATION ON CHILD EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES IN INDONESIA

THE EFFECTS OF PARENTAL MIGRATION ON CHILD EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES IN INDONESIA THE EFFECTS OF PARENTAL MIGRATION ON CHILD EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES IN INDONESIA A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment

More information

Italy s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses

Italy s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses How s Life in Italy? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Italy s average performance across the different well-being dimensions is mixed. The employment rate, about 57% in 2016, was among the

More information

Referendum 2014 how rural Scotland voted. Steven Thomson / October 2014 Research Report

Referendum 2014 how rural Scotland voted. Steven Thomson / October 2014 Research Report Referendum 2014 how rural Scotland voted Steven Thomson / October 2014 Research Report Referendum 2014 how rural Scotland voted Policy Centre Research Report Steven Thomson Senior Agricultural Economist,

More information

Ninth Coordination Meeting on International Migration

Ninth Coordination Meeting on International Migration Ninth Coordination Meeting on International Migration Measuring migration s economic and social impacts: Core indicators and methodological considerations Laura Chappell Senior Research Fellow, Institute

More information

How s Life in Canada?

How s Life in Canada? How s Life in Canada? November 2017 Canada typically performs above the OECD average level across most of the different well-indicators shown below. It falls within the top tier of OECD countries on household

More information

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States Online Appendix In this additional methodological appendix I present some alternative model specifications

More information

Working paper 20. Distr.: General. 8 April English

Working paper 20. Distr.: General. 8 April English Distr.: General 8 April 2016 Working paper 20 English Economic Commission for Europe Conference of European Statisticians Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, Switzerland 18-20 May 2016 Item 8

More information

Moldova National Voter Study

Moldova National Voter Study Moldova National Voter Study September 7 21, 2010 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization 1 METHODOLOGY The national representative survey was carried out on September

More information

Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia

Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia Ruben Enikolopov, Maria Petrova, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya Web Appendix Table A1. Summary statistics. Intention to vote and reported vote, December 1999

More information

Special Report: Predictors of Participation in Honduras

Special Report: Predictors of Participation in Honduras Special Report: Predictors of Participation in Honduras By: Orlando J. Pérez, Ph.D. Central Michigan University This study was done with support from the Program in Democracy and Governance of the United

More information

Flash Eurobarometer 337 TNS political &social. This document of the authors.

Flash Eurobarometer 337 TNS political &social. This document of the authors. Flash Eurobarometer Croatia and the European Union REPORT Fieldwork: November 2011 Publication: February 2012 Flash Eurobarometer TNS political &social This survey has been requested by the Directorate-General

More information

Onward, return, repeated and circular migration among immigrants of Moroccan origin. Merging datasets as a strategy for testing migration theories.

Onward, return, repeated and circular migration among immigrants of Moroccan origin. Merging datasets as a strategy for testing migration theories. Onward, return, repeated and circular migration among immigrants of Moroccan origin. Merging datasets as a strategy for testing migration theories. Tatiana Eremenko (INED) Amparo González- Ferrer (CSIC)

More information

How s Life in the Czech Republic?

How s Life in the Czech Republic? How s Life in the Czech Republic? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, the Czech Republic has mixed outcomes across the different well-being dimensions. Average earnings are in the bottom tier

More information

Does Paternity Leave Matter for Female Employment in Developing Economies?

Does Paternity Leave Matter for Female Employment in Developing Economies? Policy Research Working Paper 7588 WPS7588 Does Paternity Leave Matter for Female Employment in Developing Economies? Evidence from Firm Data Mohammad Amin Asif Islam Alena Sakhonchik Public Disclosure

More information

Europe, North Africa, Middle East: Diverging Trends, Overlapping Interests and Possible Arbitrage through Migration

Europe, North Africa, Middle East: Diverging Trends, Overlapping Interests and Possible Arbitrage through Migration European University Institute Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Workshop 7 Organised in the context of the CARIM project. CARIM is co-financed by the Europe Aid Co-operation Office of the European

More information

Iceland and the European Union Wave 2. Analytical report

Iceland and the European Union Wave 2. Analytical report Flash Eurobarometer European Commission Iceland and the European Union Wave 2 Analytical report Fieldwork: August 2011 Report: October 2011 Flash Eurobarometer 327 The Gallup Organization This survey was

More information

THE SKILLS DIMENSION OF MIGRATION: ETF SURVEY RESULTS FROM ARMENIA AND GEORGIA

THE SKILLS DIMENSION OF MIGRATION: ETF SURVEY RESULTS FROM ARMENIA AND GEORGIA CR RC THE SKILLS DIMENSION OF MIGRATION: ETF SURVEY RESULTS FROM ARMENIA AND GEORGIA Skills and Employment for Migrants Yerevan, 30 th October 2012 Heghine Manasyan, CRRC Special gratitude to Arne Baumann,

More information

Tracing Emigrating Populations from Highly-Developed Countries Resident Registration Data as a Sampling Frame for International German Migrants

Tracing Emigrating Populations from Highly-Developed Countries Resident Registration Data as a Sampling Frame for International German Migrants Tracing Emigrating Populations from Highly-Developed Countries Resident Registration Data as a Sampling Frame for International German Migrants International Forum on Migration Statistics, 15-16 January

More information

Economic swings, political instability and ethnic-specific migration in Kyrgyzstan*

Economic swings, political instability and ethnic-specific migration in Kyrgyzstan* Economic swings, political instability and ethnic-specific migration in Kyrgyzstan* Victor Agadjanian Evgenia Gorina Center for Population Dynamics Arizona State University Abstract Studies of the effects

More information

REMITTANCE TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA: PRELIMINARY SURVEY DATA ANALYSIS

REMITTANCE TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA: PRELIMINARY SURVEY DATA ANALYSIS REMITTANCE TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA: PRELIMINARY SURVEY DATA ANALYSIS microreport# 117 SEPTEMBER 2008 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It

More information

Household Inequality and Remittances in Rural Thailand: A Lifecycle Perspective

Household Inequality and Remittances in Rural Thailand: A Lifecycle Perspective Household Inequality and Remittances in Rural Thailand: A Lifecycle Perspective Richard Disney*, Andy McKay + & C. Rashaad Shabab + *Institute of Fiscal Studies, University of Sussex and University College,

More information

Migration and Remittances 1

Migration and Remittances 1 Migration and Remittances 1 Hiranya K Nath 2 1. Introduction The history of humankind has been the history of constant movements of people across natural as well as man-made boundaries. The adventure of

More information

Abstract for: Population Association of America 2005 Annual Meeting Philadelphia PA March 31 to April 2

Abstract for: Population Association of America 2005 Annual Meeting Philadelphia PA March 31 to April 2 INDIVIDUAL VERSUS HOUSEHOLD MIGRATION DECISION RULES: GENDER DIFFERENCES IN INTENTIONS TO MIGRATE IN SOUTH AFRICA by Bina Gubhaju and Gordon F. De Jong Population Research Institute Pennsylvania State

More information

Asylum seekers, refugees and IDPs in Moldova

Asylum seekers, refugees and IDPs in Moldova CARIM EAST CONSORTIUM FOR APPLIED RESEARCH ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Co-financed by the European Union Asylum seekers, refugees and IDPs in Moldova Vladimir Ganta CARIM-East Explanatory Note 13/120 Demographic-Economic

More information

Immigration and Multiculturalism: Views from a Multicultural Prairie City

Immigration and Multiculturalism: Views from a Multicultural Prairie City Immigration and Multiculturalism: Views from a Multicultural Prairie City Paul Gingrich Department of Sociology and Social Studies University of Regina Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian

More information

Determinants of Return Migration to Mexico Among Mexicans in the United States

Determinants of Return Migration to Mexico Among Mexicans in the United States Determinants of Return Migration to Mexico Among Mexicans in the United States J. Cristobal Ruiz-Tagle * Rebeca Wong 1.- Introduction The wellbeing of the U.S. population will increasingly reflect the

More information

How s Life in Portugal?

How s Life in Portugal? How s Life in Portugal? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Portugal has a mixed performance across the different well-being dimensions. For example, it is in the bottom third of the OECD in

More information

Ethnic minority poverty and disadvantage in the UK

Ethnic minority poverty and disadvantage in the UK Ethnic minority poverty and disadvantage in the UK Lucinda Platt Institute for Social & Economic Research University of Essex Institut d Anàlisi Econòmica, CSIC, Barcelona 2 Focus on child poverty Scope

More information

Chapter 9. Labour Mobility. Introduction

Chapter 9. Labour Mobility. Introduction Chapter 9 Labour Mobility McGraw-Hill/Irwin Labor Economics, 4 th edition Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 9-2 Introduction Existing allocation of workers and firms is

More information

Population Figures and Migration Statistics 1 st Semester 2015 (1/15)

Population Figures and Migration Statistics 1 st Semester 2015 (1/15) 4 December 2015 Population Figures at 1 July 2015 Migrations Statistics 1 st Semester 2015 Provisional data Main results The population resident in Spain decreases by 26,501 persons during the first half

More information

EF.FR/4/05 26 May 2005

EF.FR/4/05 26 May 2005 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Secretariat EF.FR/4/05 26 May 2005 ENGLISH only Conference Services Please find attached the presentation by the OSCE Office in Yerevan to the Side

More information

Table A.2 reports the complete set of estimates of equation (1). We distinguish between personal

Table A.2 reports the complete set of estimates of equation (1). We distinguish between personal Akay, Bargain and Zimmermann Online Appendix 40 A. Online Appendix A.1. Descriptive Statistics Figure A.1 about here Table A.1 about here A.2. Detailed SWB Estimates Table A.2 reports the complete set

More information

How s Life in the United Kingdom?

How s Life in the United Kingdom? How s Life in the United Kingdom? November 2017 On average, the United Kingdom performs well across a number of well-being indicators relative to other OECD countries. At 74% in 2016, the employment rate

More information

Globalization and the portuguese enterprises

Globalization and the portuguese enterprises International Sourcing 2009-2011, 2012-2015 25 November, 2013 Globalization and the portuguese enterprises In the period 2009-2011, 15.3% of Portuguese enterprises with 100 or more persons employed carried

More information

Title: Rapid Assessment of the social and poverty impacts of the economic crisis in Romania

Title: Rapid Assessment of the social and poverty impacts of the economic crisis in Romania Executive Summary Section 1 Bibliographical Information Title: Rapid Assessment of the social and poverty impacts of the economic crisis in Romania Authors: Stanculescu, M. (coord.); Marin, M. Date: 2011

More information

Spain s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses

Spain s average level of current well-being: Comparative strengths and weaknesses How s Life in Spain? November 2017 Relative to other OECD countries, Spain s average performance across the different well-being dimensions is mixed. Despite a comparatively low average household net adjusted

More information

Production Transformation INTERNATIONAL

Production Transformation INTERNATIONAL OECD Initiative for OUR Policy WORK Dialogue on Global ON Value Chains, Production Transformation INTERNATIONAL and MIGRATION Development 1 By exploring the link between international migration and development,

More information

EUROBAROMETER 62 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

EUROBAROMETER 62 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Standard Eurobarometer European Commission EUROBAROMETER 6 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AUTUMN 004 Standard Eurobarometer 6 / Autumn 004 TNS Opinion & Social NATIONAL REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ROMANIA

More information

Introduction: The State of Europe s Population, 2003

Introduction: The State of Europe s Population, 2003 Introduction: The State of Europe s Population, 2003 Changes in the size, growth and composition of the population are of key importance to policy-makers in practically all domains of life. To provide

More information

THE EMPLOYABILITY AND WELFARE OF FEMALE LABOR MIGRANTS IN INDONESIAN CITIES

THE EMPLOYABILITY AND WELFARE OF FEMALE LABOR MIGRANTS IN INDONESIAN CITIES SHASTA PRATOMO D., Regional Science Inquiry, Vol. IX, (2), 2017, pp. 109-117 109 THE EMPLOYABILITY AND WELFARE OF FEMALE LABOR MIGRANTS IN INDONESIAN CITIES Devanto SHASTA PRATOMO Senior Lecturer, Brawijaya

More information

President Dodon s visit to Brussels Contemplating economic suicide

President Dodon s visit to Brussels Contemplating economic suicide President Dodon s visit to Brussels Contemplating economic suicide Michael Emerson and Denis Cenușa No 2017-02/3 February 2017 The newly elected President of Moldova, Igor Dodon, makes his first visit

More information

The Importance of Migration and Remittances for Countries of Europe and Central Asia

The Importance of Migration and Remittances for Countries of Europe and Central Asia The Importance of Migration and Remittances for Countries of Europe and Central Asia Sudharshan Canagarajah MIRPAL Coordinator Lead Economist, World Bank 11 th of September 2012 Messages Migration and

More information

Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Moldova: Progress and Prospects. June 16, 2016

Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Moldova: Progress and Prospects. June 16, 2016 Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Moldova: Progress and Prospects June 16, 2016 Overview Moldova experienced rapid economic growth, accompanied by significant progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity.

More information

Experiments in Election Reform: Voter Perceptions of Campaigns Under Preferential and Plurality Voting

Experiments in Election Reform: Voter Perceptions of Campaigns Under Preferential and Plurality Voting Experiments in Election Reform: Voter Perceptions of Campaigns Under Preferential and Plurality Voting Caroline Tolbert, University of Iowa (caroline-tolbert@uiowa.edu) Collaborators: Todd Donovan, Western

More information

Georg Lutz, Nicolas Pekari, Marina Shkapina. CSES Module 5 pre-test report, Switzerland

Georg Lutz, Nicolas Pekari, Marina Shkapina. CSES Module 5 pre-test report, Switzerland Georg Lutz, Nicolas Pekari, Marina Shkapina CSES Module 5 pre-test report, Switzerland Lausanne, 8.31.2016 1 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Methodology 3 2 Distribution of key variables 7 2.1 Attitudes

More information

Migrants and external voting

Migrants and external voting The Migration & Development Series On the occasion of International Migrants Day New York, 18 December 2008 Panel discussion on The Human Rights of Migrants Facilitating the Participation of Migrants in

More information