Venezuela in Crisis: Atlantic Council March 2018 Poll

Transcription

1 Venezuela in Crisis: Atlantic Council March 2018 Poll For media inquiries, please contact Base:

2 Scope of study Venezuelan adults of all socioeconomic levels Sample size 1000 people Margin of error TECHNICAL DETAILS ± 3.04% Collection of information Door-to-door home interviews Sampling type Stratified Random Confidence interval 95.0% Field dates February 25 to March 07, 2018 Polling Firm Datanálisis

3 Gender Interviewee Profile 50.0% 50.0% Chavista Independent Age Socioeconomic Level % % 15.6% 15.1% D o + 42% 14% ABC Opposition 12.6% 10.6% 9.1% 12.9% 7.6% E Base:

4 QUALITY OF LIFE In the last 12 months, how would you rate your quality of life? A large majority of respondents considers that their quality of life has deteriorated in the last year. This is especially true for those who do not identify as pro-government and for the upper middle class. 35.4% Gotten much worse 42.8% Gotten worse Gotten better 63.9% 94.2% 98.9% 5.8% 1.1% 10.2% Equally bad Equally good 88.4% 7.8% 3.6% Gotten much better 0.0% Doesn't know / No Answer 0.2% 11.4% 34.8%

5 QUALITY OF LIFE In the next 12 months, how would you expect to rate your quality of life? Expectations for the future are not positive. About three quarters of respondents expect their quality of life to deteriorate over the next year. 32.7% Get much worse 28.5% Get worse Doesn't know / No Answer 80.2% 93.2% 22.6% 60.9% 13.9% 5.2% 5.5% Get better Get much better 34.8% 12.1% Equally bad Equally good 73.3% 16.2% 0.9% 4.1%

6 Political Situation Base:

7 POLITICAL SELF-IDENTIFICATION Independents represent Venezuela s largest political bloc, having seen an 8-point increase from our January poll. Respondents who self-identified with the opposition are significantly more numerous than those aligned with chavismo. Similar trends are observed across other studies. 24.2% 43.3% 31.5% No Answer 1.0%

8 DICTATORSHIP On a scale of 1 to 5, in which 1 means dictatorship and 5 means full democracy, how would you rate the Venezuelan political system today? 38.8% Dictatorship 58.1% % 67.6% 88.9% 89.5% 12.0% 2.2% 19.3% 14.1% 8.5% 27.7% Full Democracy 19.2% Base: 1000

9 NICOLÁS MADURO How would you rate Nicolás Maduro s performance in running the country? Nearly 80 percent of respondents gave Maduro poor markings for his management of the country. His overall approval ratings decreased from 30 percent in the Atlantic Council January poll to close to 20 percent two months later. Very bad 49.5% Bad Regular to bad Regular to good Good 23.6% 77.9% 25.7% 91.0% 99.6% 22.0% 74.3% 8.8% 0.4% 4.8% 12.4% 9.2% Very good 0.4% Doesn't know/no Answer 0.1%

10 MAIN PROBLEMS What do you consider as the main problem that the country is currently facing? High cost of living/inflation Food shortages Delinquency/Personal Insecurity The economic crisis Lack of cash Economic warfare President Nicolas Maduro Lack of private investment Corruption/Impunity The National Government Lack of healthcare Electricity/Power Failures The Opposition Political Violence Long lines to shop International economic sanctions Trash in the streets Public transport failures Too many violent protests Streets/roads in bad shape Other Doesn't know/no Answer 34.3% 28.1% 7.6% 6.5% 5.6% 3.5% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% 0.1% High cost of living 29.5% 32.5% 41.1% Food shortages 23.8% 33.0% 23.5% Delinquency/Personal insecurity 10.0% 8.3% 4.6%

11 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Generally, how willing are you to vote in upcoming presidential elections under current electoral conditions? Nearly half of respondents would not go out and vote in the upcoming presidential elections under current electoral conditions, compared to just 28 percent who expressed so in our January poll. This is indicative of increasing mistrust following Maduro s announcement of snap presidential elections. 24.8% Completely unwilling Somewhat unwilling 19.5% Willing 29.3% 22.1% Very willing Doesn't know/no answer 3.0% 29.3% 35.8% 3.9% 24.2% 25.5% 44.3% 26.5% 21.1% 48.4% 13.7% 13.8% 4.2%

12 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Do you believe presidential election results announced by the current National Electoral Council would be credible?. For nearly half of respondents, presidential election results announced by the current National Electoral Council (CNE) would not be credible, a 10-point increase from the Atlantic Council s January poll. 49.8% No, they would not be credible 38.3% Yes, they could be credible Does not know/no Answer 2.5% 59.8% 73.0% 96.1% 21.8% 16.7% 11.9%

13 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS If elections were held next Sunday, who would you vote for? More than a third of respondents would vote for an opposition candidate, including nearly one-fifth of independents, up from 25 percent in January. A pro-government candidate is the least preferred option in both Atlantic Council polls. 33.3% An opposition candidate An independent candidate 25.8% A pro-government candidate Would not vote Doesn't know/no answer 22.9% 9.6% % 78.9% 5.5% 46.3% 13.6% 88.9% 2.9% 0.6% 3.9% 17.0% 3.9% 8.4%

14 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS If elections were held next Sunday, for whom would you vote? Lorenzo Mendoza Nicolás Maduro Henri Falcón Leopoldo López Henrique Capriles Radonski María Corina Machado Héctor Rodriguez Henry Ramos Allup Jorge Rodríguez Julio Borges Claudio Fermín Diosdado Cabello Juan Pablo Guanipa María Gabriela Chávez Antonio Ledezma Lilian Tintori Manuel Rosales Rafael Lacava Otro Doesn't know/no answer Would not vote Lorenzo Mendoza 22.9% 21.2% 8.3% 6.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.2% 1.3% 24.7% 37.7% Nicolás Maduro 83.3% 2.1% 0.5% Henri Falcón 1.0% 8.3% 14.2% Doesn t know/no Answer 5.9% 32.2% 15.1% 20.8% 11.1% Base: 1000

15 Humanitarian Crisis Base:

16 HUMANITARIAN CRISIS Do you believe the country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis? 80 percent of respondents believe that Venezuela is experiencing a humanitarian crisis, including nearly half of chavistas, despite Maduro s constant denial of such a crisis. Yes, Venezuela is going through a humanitarian crisis 81.2% No, Venezuela is not going through a humanitarian crisis Doesn't know/no answer 15.8% 49.6% 44.1% 88.6% 95.1% 9.1% 3.8% 3.0%

17 FOOD SUPPLY How would you evaluate the country s food supply situation? Very bad 54.3% Bad 28.1% Regular to bad 7.5% Regular to good 7.0% Good 2.9% Very good 0.0% Doesn't know/no answer 0.2% 89.9% 69.8% 95.2% 97.7% 9.9% 29.6% 4.8% 2.3%

18 GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE Has your household received CLAP assistance (government food distribution) over the last 3 months? CLAP penetration is at 60 percent of the population. However, 66 percent of respondents indicated they did not receive any assistance from the government, meaning that CLAPs are not being perceived as a social program by a significant amount of recipients. 60.3% Yes No No answer 39.2% 0.5% 71.6% 63.5% 47.1% 28.4% 36.3% 51.5% 1.8 Average of CLAP boxes received over the last three months.

19 MEDICINE SUPPLY How would you evaluate the country s medicine supply situation? The assessment regarding medicine supply is quite extreme, more so than with food, and seems to be deteriorating rapidly. 95 percent of respondents rate the medicine supply situation as negative, compared to 85 percent who did so in January. More than eight in ten pro-government respondents recognize the precariousness of the situation. Young people stand out the most in the negative evaluation. Very bad 58.8% Bad Regular to bad 29.5% 95.3% 82.7% 98.9% 4.7% 17.3% 1.1% 100% 7.0% Regular to good 3.2% Good 1.5% Very good 0.0% ---

20 INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE Do you believe that Venezuela requires international assistance to improve its economic situation? Three in four respondents consider that Venezuela requires international assistance to improve its economic situation. This is up 15 points from 60 percent in the Atlantic Council s January poll, indicating a deterioration of economic conditions over the past two months. More than a third of chavistas recognize the need for international assistance. 75.3% Yes No Doesn't know/no answer 21.3% 35.5% 83.3% 94.6% 56.4% 14.1% 4.1% 3.4%

21 HUMANITARIAN CHANNEL How much do you agree or disagree with the opening of a humanitarian channel to Venezuela? A significant majority three in four respondents agree with the opening of a humanitarian channel for Venezuela, contrary to the Maduro government s refusal to accept humanitarian aid. Strongly disagree 5.3% Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 30.5% 10.1% 15.4% 74.7% 46.5% 84.1% 83.2% 11.4% 8.1% Agree 39.9% Strongly agree Doesn't know/no answer 16.7% 34.8% 0.5%

22 HUMANITARIAN CHANNEL If the opening of a humanitarian channel to Venezuela were to be allowed, which of the following institutions would be best equipped to coordinate the delivery of humanitarian aid? Institutions seen as apolitical are perceived to be the most capable of organizing and distributing potential humanitarian aid. Church 37.1% International community/ngos 35.7% 25.3% 11.2% National Government International Community/NGOs 10.5% 5.0% Armed forces 4.9% National Assembly 4.5% Doesn't know/no answer 37.8% 7.0% Opposition Other (without specifying which) 43.0% 23.7% Civil society National Constituent Assembly The Church 3.5% 37.1% 53.4% Civil Society 13.4% 27.2% 26.8% 8.4%

23 HUMANITARIAN CHANNEL How much do you agree or disagree with the Church playing a role in coordinating and distributing humanitarian aid in Venezuela? Strongly disagree 5.7% Disagree 21.8% 15.0% 19.5% 66.3% 56.3% 70.7% 68.0% 12.5% Neither agree nor disagree 14.2% Agree 46.3% Strongly agree Doesn't know/no answer 18.2% 20.0% 1.2%

24 HUMANITARIAN CHANNEL If the opening of a humanitarian channel to Venezuela were to be allowed, which of the following institutions would be least equipped to coordinate the delivery of humanitarian aid? State institutions are perceived to be the least equipped to handle potential aid. 48.8% National government Armed forces 32.3% National Constituent Assembly National Government 7.7% 55.9% 25.9% Opposition 22.2% Armed Forces 10.2% National Assembly 12.3% The church 7.6% Civil Society 6.8% Doesn't know/no answer 37.1% 41.5% 9.1% International community/ngo's Other (without specifying which) 70.2% 0.8% National Constituent Assembly 4.7% 29.1% 37.6% 5.4%

25 Economic Situation: Prices and Inflation Base:

26 HYPERINFLATION Do you consider the country to be in a state of hyperinflation? There is an almost unanimous perception that Venezuela is in a situation of hyperinflation. Among the few who reject this view, those aligned with the ruling government stand out. 95.1% Yes No Doesn't know/doesn't answer 3.9% 85.3% 11.7% 97.4% 99.5% 2.1% 0.5% 1.0%

27 HYPERINFLATION Who do you think is responsible for hyperinflation in the country? Although several actors were identified as the culprit for hyperinflation, the government stands out as being identified most frequently. Specifically, President Maduro is blamed. President Nicolas Maduro 54.2% Ministers / National Government 29.1% The people 19.6% Private enterprise Economic Warfare President Nicolás Maduro 5.9% 58.5% 81.2% 12.4% 10.5% The National Constituent Assembly (ANC) 7.0% Opposition/Parties in the opposition 6.1% State enterprises 5.2% PSUV/Pro-government 5.1% U.S. Government/The "empire" 4.2% Doesn't know/doesn't answer 3.2% Other 2.5% Democratic Unity / MUD 2.2% Venezuelan Central Bank 1.3% Ministers/ National Government 5.8% 38.2% 31.9% The People 28.9% 22.3% 9.8% Base: 951

28 HYPERINFLATION How often do you think the prices of products and services increase? About 64 percent of respondents perceive increases in the prices of products and services to occur on a daily basis. On average, prices are perceived to increase at least 22 days each month. Daily (30) 63.7% Every two days (15) 53.6% 63.6% 72.1% 15.6% Weekly (4) 17.2% Biweekly (2) 1.7% Monthly (1) 1.4% Doesn't 0.4% know/no Monthly Average: 22.3 times per month

29 IMPACT OF HYPERINFLATION As a result of hyperinflation, the majority of respondents stated that they had to modify their purchasing and consumption habits. 85 percent of respondents stated that they have reduced the size of meals and 75 percent had to reduce the number of meals they make at home. 93.5% 92.0% 93.1% 84.5% 74.2% 73.4% 26.5% 25.6% 7.7% 15.4% 6.2% 0.3% 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Have members of your Have you had to change Have you reduced the Have you had to stop household had to stop Have you had to reduce the traditional brands of number of meals you Have you reduced the paying or contracting buying certain goods? the quantities of the the products you buy for make at home? amount of food in any of services in your home? products you buy? a cheaper one? the meals you make at (example internet, cable, home? domestic, etc.? YES NO Doesn't know/no answer

30 Economic Situation: Venezuelan Oil and PDVSA Base:

31 OIL DEPENDENCE What do you think of the Venezuelan economy s dependence on oil? Opinions on Venezuela s oil dependence are split. 50 percent consider it harmful, while a smaller but significant group (40 percent) considers it beneficial for the country. 49.7% It is harmful for the country 40.0% It is beneficial for the country Neither harmful nor beneficial No answer 25.6% 59.3% 55.7% 62.9% 31.0% 34.2% 7.5% 2.8% Base: 873

32 PDVSA Which of the following phrases best reflects your opinion on the current condition of PDVSA? Nearly eight in ten respondents believe PDVSA is either a company in crisis or broke. 44.4% PDVSA is a company in crisis PDVSA is broke PDVSA is a successful company Doesn't know/no answer 34.6% 16.5% 39.6% 47.4% 43.3% 5.4% 39.6% 50.1% 48.0% 7.8% 4.7% 4.5%

33 Economic Situation: External Debt Base:

34 EXTERNAL DEBT Over the last 5 years, what would you say has happened to Venezuela s external debt? In the last 5 years, the Venezuelan debt has increased significantly, and 67 percent of respondents recognize this. 66.8% Has risen Has remained the same Has diminished Doesn't know/no answer 15.8% 10.3% 32.3% 76.0% 80.3% 38.8% 10.5% 5.3% 22.9% 4.0% 9.3% 7.1%

35 EXTERNAL DEBT Why do you think that the country has had to go into debt? The main reasons recognized for the national debt increase are waste on behalf of the government and increases in public spending. Poor management of resources by the government Poor management of resources by the government 57.6% 13.3% To increase spending in social programs To finance public spending 68.2% 76.8% 31.0% 21.6% To invest more in the country's infrastructure 15.1% To increase production 13.3% To increase social program spending 53.6% 26.7% 19.9% To finance public spending Corruption / To steal money 4.7% 34.3% Doesn't know/no answer 18.2% 17.0% 5.0%

36 DEBT DEFAULT Which of the following options best reflects what you think will happen with external debt payments? 60 percent of respondents believe Venezuela will either partially or totally default on its debt. The most optimistic segment in this regard is the pro-government contingent. Venezuela will honor its payment commitments Venezuela will not honor its payment commitments Venezuela will partially default on its payment commitments Doesn't know/no answer 32.7% 78.1% 20.2% 15.8% 32.7% 3.5% 35.0% 51.4% 28.1% 13.7% 35.8% 28.7% 6.5%

37 Sanctions Base:

38 SANCTIONS Do you agree or disagree with the sanctions imposed by the government of the United States? Responses are divided across political affiliation in relation to US-imposed sanctions. Support of sanctions is down from 47 percent in January. 17.9% Strongly disagree Disagree 89.5% 41.5% 5.3% 33.7% 20.2% 25.3% Neither agree nor disagree 12.9% 27.5% Agree Strongly agree Doesn't know/no answer 43.1% 43.7% 67.5% 14.0% 2.4%

39 IMPACT OF SANCTIONS Have sanctions affected you? While half of respondents believe sanctions have not affected them, it is noteworthy that 43 percent believe they have been impacted. This must be the effect of the government's campaigns promoting the idea that sanctions harm the country, given that most of the sanctions imposed thus far have targeted individuals. 49.2% No, they have not Yes, they have Doesn't know/no answer 42.7% 29.4% 53.3% 59.5% 64.6% 37.7% 32.4% 8.1% Base: 1000

40 OIL EMBARGO Do you agree or disagree with a possible oil embargo? An oil embargo generates an overwhelming rejection. The majority recognizes that such a measure would have repercussions that would affect the entire population. Among the small portion of respondents who would agree with an embargo, members of the opposition stand out believing that an oil embargo can be definitive to generate change. 39.2% Strongly disagree 75.4% 95.4% 70.8% 66.4% 13.0% 2.5% 12.1% 22.5% 36.2% Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 9.6% Agree 10.3% Strongly Agree 2.7% Doesn't know/no answer 2.0%

41 What do you think is the ideal solution for the current crisis? Deep political and economic changes are seen as necessary for a solution to the crisis. 39.6% Change of government / change of political 7.3% National production / Higher production Agreement between government and 5.8% Collective work consciousness 4.7% Elections /transparent elections 4.6% That investments arrive to the country 4.2% Abundance of products / No shortage 3.7% That the economic war stops 3.0% Job opportunities / work / for all 2.7% Re-elect the current government 2.5% That the economy be "dollarized" 2.3% Economic stability 2.1% That the opposition withdraws 2.1% Decrease in the inflation index / accessible 1.9% That the government take strong measures / 1.8% Foreign military intervention 1.5% Humanitarian aid 1.4% There is no corruption / Mafias 1.2% Financing to private companies 1.0% Doesn't know/no answer Change in government 3.7% 41.2% 65.6% National production/higher production 8.8% 3.5% 9.0% Agreement between government and opposition 12.2% 5.1% 2.2% 7.6%