Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls. Poll Report #4, November Content:

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1 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from September-October 2015) By Patrick Vinck, Phuong Pham, Tino Kreutzer Content: p3. ELECTIONS - A significant percentage of the population sees high risk of violence associated with the upcoming elections, and considers the police and local authorities unable to cope. p5. YOUTH - Recreational and employment opportunities for young people vary widely according to place but are generally limited. p7. ADMINISTRATION - There is popular support for the division of provinces in Ituri, in the hope of a positive effect on the quality of administrative services p8. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS

2 About the Poll Results for this poll are based on 3,635 interviews conducted between September and October with randomly selected adults in the following cities and territories. Province / District Territoire / Ville Echantillon North Kivu Town of Goma 220 Town of Beni 302 Beni 200 Nyiragongo 239 Rutshuru 216 South-Kivu Town of Bukavu 312 Fizi 217 Kabare 259 Kalehe 216 Walungu 216 Town of Uvira 300 Ituri Town of Bunia 294 Djugu 216 Irumu 212 Mambasa 216 TOTAL 3,635 (Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level) For more information, visit Or contact info@peacebuilding.org About the Project This survey is the fourth in a series of surveys that will be conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, working with partners such as l'université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia. Publications : Poll Report #4, November 2015 () Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June-July 2015) Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March-May 2015) Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from December 2014) Baseline, May 2013 (Data from December 2013) A project of In collaboration with With support from Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners

3 ELECTIONS - A significant percentage of the population sees high risk of violence associated with the upcoming elections, and considers the police and local authorities unable to cope. Elections are a period of opportunity for strengthening democratic institutions, but also a time of risk of violence when the rules and results are not respected. In 12 of the 15 sampled cities and territoires, more than one in three people believe there is a high risk of violence in their communities during the upcoming elections. The perception of a high risk of violence is more common in Bukavu (6), Rutshuru (59%), Walungu (56%) and Kalehe (51%). Four of the five territories with the most frequent perception of high risk of violence are in South Kivu. Perception of the risk of violence during the upcoming elections (% high) 38% 43% 37% 16% 59% 6 35% 49% 51% 56% 44% 27% 2 35% 46% Ciy of Goma Ciy of Beni Beni Nyiragongo Rutshuru Ciy of Bukavu Fizi Kabare Kalehe Walungu Ciy of Uvira Ciy of Bunia Djugu Irumu Mambasa NK SK IT Whatever the level of risk of violence perceived by respondents, in 12 of the 15 sampled cities and territories, fewer than one in five considers positively the capacity of the police and local authorities to respond to such violence. Respondents are most frequently positive about the capacity of the police and local authorities in Bunia (police: 28%, local authorities: 24%), Djugu (38% and 47% respectively) and Irumu (23% and 24%, respectively). The poor perception of the police's ability to manage potential violence during the elections reflect the lack of confidence in the police as a security actor. More data on the perception of security actors are available online. Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 3

4 Ability to manage violence (% good very good) Police 5% 1 15% 18% 7% 3% 8% 1 16% 13% 7% 28% 38% 23% 7% Local authorities 6% 13% 14% 4% 3% 10% 1 17% 16% 10% 24% 47% 24% 8% Ciy of Goma Ciy of Beni Beni Nyiragongo Rutshuru Ciy of Bukavu Fizi Kabare Kalehe Walungu Ciy of Uvira Ciy of Bunia Djugu Irumu Mambasa NK SK IT Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 4

5 YOUTH - Recreational and employment opportunities for young people vary widely according to place but are generally limited. 1 Youth involvement in conflicts and violence may be associated with several factors of frustration and grievances, including economic exclusion, lack of prospects, and lack of opportunities for training and education. This fourth survey revealed a large inequality between territories on the existence of spaces for recreational activities, local (village / neighborhood) opportunities for youth to express their opinions, and the availability of information on opportunities for training and employment for the youth. In 11 of the 15 sampled cities and territories, fewer than half of respondents indicate the presence of recreational facilities for young people in their locality with the lowest percentages in the city of Beni (17%) and Rutshuru territory (16%); and in 12 of 15 territories visited, less than half of the respondents indicate that young people have the opportunity to express their views within the neighborhood/ village. The three territories with the highest percentage of positive responses are in Ituri. Presence of spaces for recreational activities for youth (% Yes) Possibility for youth to express their opinions in the neighborhood/ village (% yes) Presence of information on opportunities for training and employment for youths (% yes) Ciy of Goma 41% 26% 15% Ciy of Beni 17% 26% 9% NK Beni 43% 31% 15% Nyiragongo 40% 37% 17% Rutshuru 16% 14% 15% Ciy of Bukavu 26% 24% 5% Fizi 34% 49% 23% SK Kabare Kalehe 28% 60% 18% 45% 8% 10% Walungu 67% 41% 2 Ciy of Uvira 24% 40% 19% Ciy of Bunia 43% 48% 35% Djugu 51% IT Irumu 48% 67% 55% Mambasa 56% 59% 30% 1 The terms «youth» and «recreational opportunities» were not defined to respondents during interviews. Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 5

6 The possibilities of finding work are generally considered very bad. Less than 10% of the population positively judge their chances of finding work, which is a lower percentage than those judging poorly their access to education or health, for example. Unemployment is frequently identified as the biggest problem existing in the sampled localities. This survey shows that there is little formal assistance in finding employment. In 11 of 15 territories, fewer than 25% of respondents indicated the presence of information points where youth can get information on training opportunities and employment. In general, young people have no access to formal sources of information on employment opportunities. At best offers are available on bulletin valves frequently posted on portals, or via radio announcements, but this is a source of information for only about one in five. For most informal networks matter, if they have any source of information at all. Employment information sources for youth (%) City of Goma City of Bukavu City of Bunia Nowhere 33% 49% 30% Bulletin valves 7% Radio / media 1 19% In town 19% 21% At church 9% 1% From local leaders 0% 13% Friends, family (informal) 1% 13% Other 15% 8% Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 6

7 ADMINISTRATION - There is popular support for the division of provinces in Ituri, in the hope of a positive effect on the quality of administrative services. On July 6, 2015, the Province Orientale was officially "cut" into four new provinces: Tshopo Ituri, Bas- Uele and Haut Uélé. According to this survey, the newly formed province of Ituri is generally considered to have the necessary infrastructure to provide the new administrative functions, and the population in the four cities and territories sampled support the administrative division. Nearly three quarters of the population in the city of Bunia (88%) and territories of Mambasa (73%) and Irumu (73%) have heard of the administrative division. The only exception is Djugu where this process appears less frequently known by respondents (46%). Among those who have heard of the division, nearly three quarters believe it will have positive effects. Specifically, between 65% and 83% of respondents believe that the division will have a positive effect on the quality of administrative services. Heard of administrative 88% 46% 73% 73% division (%) 73% 89% 9 Perception of division (% positive) City of Bunia Djugu Irumu Mambasa Perceived effect of division on quality of administrative services (% positive, negative, or no effect) Positive Negative No effect Don't know 5% 7% 5% 13% 4% 17% 19% 65% 13% 83% 8% 71% City of Bunia Djugu Irumu Mambasa Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 7

8 KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS (NOV. 2015) The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences between territories - detailed results by territories are available on the site. Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory. SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe very safe) Latest data (June September 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Daily activities Walking alone at night Daily activities Walking alone at night 65% 41% 73% 76% 63% 49% 71% 49% 67% 70% 7 44% 46% 51% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec Jun Sep PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust) Latest data (June September 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Police FARDC MONUSCO Police FARDC MONUSCO 57% 6 53% 54% 45% 50% 47% 50% 25% 25% 29% 26% 61% 53% 51% 54% 49% 49% NK SK Ituri TOTAL 25% 26% 24% Dec Jun Sep Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 8

9 PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% good very good) Latest data (June September 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Relations with your ethnic group Relations with other ethnic groups 86% 78% 84% 81% 81% 7 70% 76% 89% 79% Relations with your ethnic group Relations with other ethnic groups 81% 8 74% 77% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec Jun Sep TRUST IN JUSTICE (% little none) Latest data (June September 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Civilian justice system Military justice system Civilian justice system Military justice system 73% 7 73% 78% 77% 74% 74% 69% 65% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec Jun Sep Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 4, 11/2015 9