Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls. Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Poll Report #7, August Content:

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1 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo Poll Report #7, August 2016 (Data from June -July 2016) By Patrick Vinck, Phuong Pham, Tino Kreutzer Content: p3. SOCIAL COHESION: Relations across ethnic groups are worsening in North Kivu p4. NONGOVERNMENTAL ASSISTANCE Low satisfaction with civil society and the United Nations efforts in urban areas p7. ELECTIONS The risk of violence associated with the elections is ranked high, stable over time p9. GOVERNANCE: Low levels of satisfaction with the delivery of key services and peacebuilding objectives may fuel violence p11. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS

2 About the Poll Results for this poll are based on 3,905 interviews conducted in June and July 2016 with randomly selected adults in the following cities and territories: Province / District Territoire / Town Sample North Kivu City of Goma 221 City of Beni 230 City of Butembo 294 Lubero 215 Masisi 224 Rutshuru* 215 South Kivu Ville de Bukavu 294 Idjwi 216 Mwenga 250 Shabunda 216 Uvira** 254 Ville d'uvira 310 IIturi City of Bunia 292 Aru 216 Irumu 216 Mahagi 212 TOTAL 3,905 (Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level) * 6 out of 27 villages were replaced due to insecurity ** 1 out of 27 village was replaced due to insecurity For more information, visit Or contact info@peacebuilding.org About the Project This survey is the seventh in a series of surveys that will be conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, in partnership with l'université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia. Publications : Poll Report #6, June 2016 (Data from March 2016) Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from December 2015) Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from September - October 2015) Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June-July 2015) Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March-May 2015) Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from December 2014) Baseline, May 2014 (Data from December 2013) A project of In collaboration with With support from Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners

3 SOCIAL COHESION: Relations across ethnic groups are worsening in North Kivu Poll results collected for Poll 7 over the last quarter showed a strong decline in the perceived quality of relations between members of different ethnic groups in North Kivu. The provincial average of people reporting good relations with members of different ethnic groups declined from 78% (Poll 5, Q4 2015) to 65% (Poll 7) over the past six months. This trend is particularly pronounced in areas affected by current military activities against the FDLR with Rutshuru (a decline of ), Lubero (24%), and Butembo (28%) recording the steepest decline. However, it should be noted that no such deterioration in inter-ethnic relations was recorded in Beni Ville, in spite of the recent violence. Trends in people s perception of their relations with other ethnic groups (% positive) 75% 78% 77% 74% NORTH KIVU 65% Rutshuru, 6 City of Butembo, 54% Lubero, 47% Poll 3 - Q Poll 4 - Q Poll 5 - Q Poll 6 - Q Poll 7 - Q Data from June 2015 to June 2016 A comparative analysis of the data along gender lines indicates that women have more negative views than men on their relations with other ethnic groups. For men, the deterioration in inter-ethnic relations is slow but steady over the last four polls. In contrast, the proportion of women reporting positive relations with members of other ethnic groups remained steady until the last poll, when there has been a steep decline. Trends in people s perception of their relations with other ethnic groups, by gender (% positive) 8 81% 75% 74% - Men % 57% - Women Poll 4 - Q Poll 5 - Q Poll 6 - Q Poll 7 - Q Données de Septembre 2015 à Juin 2016 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 3

4 NONGOVERNMENTAL ASSISTANCE Low satisfaction with civil society and the United Nations efforts in urban areas For the first time since these polls have been conducted, poll 7 examined the population s perceptions of humanitarian and development aid actors including national (NGOs) and international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs), as well as United Nations agencies in improving the overall conditions in their communities. It should be noted that these questions will be repeated during the next poll and further analysis will be forthcoming after Poll 8 (September 2016). The findings from Poll 7 show that the contribution of international NGOs and UN agencies in the provincial capitals of Goma and Bukavu (North and South Kivu, respectively) is considered negligible. About 90% of respondents in these locations (Goma 89%, Bukavu, 96%) reported that these international actors provide little to no contribution to improving living conditions in their village or neighborhood. Respondents in Bunia, the capital city of the newly formed province of Ituri were only slightly more positive, with 70% reporting little to no contribution by these actors. Generally, people s perception of the impact of peacebuilding efforts on improving the conditions in their communities was also very negative. Perceived contribution of international NGOs and of the UN to improving local conditions GOMA BUKAVU BUNIA A lot extreme 0% Some 8% No response Some A lot extreme 0% No response A lot extreme 7% No response 10% Contribution of International NGOs and the United Nations Little none 89% Little none 96% Some 1 Little none 70% Dara from June 2016 Survey respondents opinions of the contribution of national NGOs to improving life in their community were relatively similar to their perceptions of the contribution of international actors: 77% in Bunia judged their contribution as being little to none, compared to over 90% in Bukavu (96%) and in Goma (94%). Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 4

5 Perceived contribution of local NGOs to improving local conditions Some 6% A lot extreme GOMA BUKAVU BUNIA No response Some A lot extreme 1% No response 1% A lot extreme 6% No response 11% Contribution of National NGOs Some 14% Little none 89% Little none 96% Little none 69% Data from June 2016 People s perception of local and international NGOs, and of the United Nations is generally more positive outside of the main cities. The perceived contribution of international NGOs was most positive in the territories of Masisi (5: some - a lot) and Ir umu (4: some - a lot) where INGO interventions are relatively high in number as well as sizable. Perceived contribution to improving local conditions (% some a lot) Contribution of national NGOs Contribution of International NGOs and the United Nations Ville de Goma Ville de Beni Ville de Butembo Lubero Masisi Rutshuru Ville de Bukavu Idjwi Mwenga 8% % 17% 27% 2 11% 14% 20% 5% 41% 8% 8% 21% 11% 3 55% 29% 21% 2 25% 20% 20% 4% 4 8% Shabunda Uvira Ville d'uvira Ville de Bunia Aru Irumu Mahagi NK SK IT Data from June 2016 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 5

6 The perceived contribution of international NGOs and of the United Nations varies along gender lines. In Masisi and Irumu, almost two out of three men (65% and 6 respectively) judged the contribution of INGOS and the UN positively, compared to less than half of all women in Masisi (44%) and less than one out of every four women in Irumu (2). In other territories, such as Rutshuru, Idjwi or Mahagi, women held a more positive opinion than men. Similar trends exist in the perceived contribution of local NGOs. Perceived contribution of ingos and of the UN to improving local conditions (% some a lot) Women Men Ville de Goma Ville de Beni 18% 25% Ville de Butembo 1 10% Lubero 2 4 Masisi 44% 65% Rutshuru 38% 21% Ville de Bukavu Idjwi 35% 7% Mwenga Shabunda Uvira 17% 21% 28% 24% 2 2 Ville d'uvira 19% 1 Ville de Bunia 10% 30% Aru 6% Irumu 2 6 Mahagi 1% Data from June 2016 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 6

7 ELECTIONS The risk of violence associated with the elections is ranked high, stable over time The upcoming elections for the presidency and the general assembly, scheduled to take place on 27 November 2016, have been featured topics during the polls carried out in March and June The results indicate that 4 of respondents perceive the risk of election related violence in their neighborhood as being high or very high. The perceived risk of violence varies greatly between territories. The highest percentages were recorded South Kivu (58%, for the province as a whole), with 89% of respondents in Shabunda reporting an elevated risk of electoral violence during the next elections. It should be noted that Shabunda does not have a recent history of political rallies or recent political violence. Nonetheless, it can be considered a territory with a high level of insecurity. Recent poll data indicate a strong decline in people s trust in the police as a security provider the percentage of people who trust the police to ensure security has dropped from 41% to 19% in the last six months. It is also worth noting that in Beni Ville, almost one out of every three persons (65%) consider the risk of electoral violence to be high. This could be reflected in the recent tensions and violent incidents in that region. The perceived risk of election related violence also varies greatly between men and women. Half of the men in the Eastern Congo (50%) consider that the risk of electoral violence is high, compared to only one out every three women (34%). In South Kivu, almost two out of three men (68%) consider the risk of electoral violence to be high. Perception of the risk of electoral violence during the forthcoming elections (% high) by territory Ville de Goma Ville de Beni Ville de Butembo Beni Lubero Masisi Nyiragongo Rutshuru Walikale NORD KIVU Ville de Bukavu Fizi Idjwi Kabare Kalehe Mwenga Shabunda Uvira Ville d'uvira Walungu SUD KIVU Ville de Bunia Aru Djugu Irumu Mahagi Mambasa ITURI EST RDC 51% 65% 47% 40% 29% 25% 2 49% 44% 38% 57% 5 21% 64% 61% 5 48% 49% 58% 58% 31% 28% 38% 29% 14% 35% 28% 4 89% NK SK IT Data from March and June 2016 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 7

8 Perception of the risk of electoral violence during the forthcoming elections (% high) by gender Total, 38% Women, 28% Men, 47% Total, 58% Women, 47% Men, 68% Total, 28% Women, 25% Men, 31% Total, 4 Women, 34% Men, 50% NK SK IT Eastern DRC Data from March and June 2016 Data collected during the most recent polls indicate very little overall change in the perceived risk of electoral violence. In March-June 2016, 4 of people in the Eastern Congo considered the risk election related violence to be high, compared to 40% in September-December At the provincial level, there is also very little change to be observed in North Kivu and Ituri. However, in South Kivu, the percentage of people describing the risk of electoral violence as high increased from 51% to 58% over the same period. This increase is mostly the result of the change recorded in Shabunda. There has also been an important increase in the percentage of people judging the risk of electoral violence as high in Goma City. Change in perceptions related to the risk of electoral violence between September 2015 a nd June 2016 (% high) 51% South Kivu 58% 40% Eastern DRC 4 40% North Kivu 38% 27% Ituri 28% Poll 4-5 Poll 6-7 Data from September and December 2015, and from March and June 2016 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 8

9 GOVERNANCE: Low levels of satisfaction with the delivery of key services and peacebuilding objectives may fuel violence The government s efforts in various sectors such peacebuilding, improving relations between different groups, or improving the living conditions of Congolese is rarely judged positively, especially in the North and South Kivu. In Ituri, the population viewed the government s efforts more positively. Based on the most recent polling data from all territories and cities in the East, 38% of respondents viewed the government s efforts in combatting sexual violence offenses as either good or very good. Only 17% of adults in North Kivu have a positive opinion of the government s efforts to provide security, compared to 1 in South Kivu and 44% in Ituri province. The most positive views among the 25 territories and cities were held in Mambasa and Djugu, while the least positive opinions were found in Idjwi. Perception of Government s efforts in selected areas (% positive) North Kivu South Kivu Ituri Eastern DRC Fight against sexual violence 35% 29% 56% 38% Establish peace in the East of the Congo 16% 44% 2 Ensure security 17% 1 44% 2 Bring different ethnic groups together 10% 50% 2 Improve the life of Congolese people 4% 4% 30% 11% Fight against corruption 4% 26% 9% Reduce Poverty 5% 25% 9% Increase Jobs 27% 9% Data from March June 2016 The indicators relating to people s perception of the government s efforts in these key sectors have been used to compute a global index measuring people s overall perception of the government s efforts. The index score ranges from 1 (very positive) to 5 (very negative). The results confirm that the government s efforts are viewed more negatively in South Kivu (average score of 4.1) compared to North Kivu (average score of 3.9) and especially Ituri (average score of 3.2). The overall score for the East of the DRC was 3.8. At the provincial level, one can observe differences in the views held by women and men in Ituri and South Kivu. Men had more negative views than women (Ituri: 3.4 v 2.9; South Kivu: 4.2 v 3.9). Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/2016 9

10 Satisfaction Score regarding the Government s efforts in sectors related to peacebuilding (1-very positive 5 very negative) Total, 3.9 Women, 3.9 Men, 3.8 Total, 4.1 Women, 3.9 Men, 4.2 Total, 3.2 Women, 2.9 Men, 3.4 Total, 3.8 Women, 3.7 Men, 3.9 Aerage Score NK SK IT Eastern DRC Data from March-June 2016 Research conducted to date suggests that a negative attitude towards public services may be linked to a greater acceptance of violence and willingness to use arms by the population. An analysis of the poll results for March and June 2016 reveal a notable link between the increase in perceived risk of electoral violence and negative attitudes toward public services. The average satisfaction score regarding the government s efforts was significantly lower (more positive) amongst people who considered the risk of electoral violence to be low, compared to those who perceived the risk of election related violence to be high. This analysis demonstrates that there is a direct relationship between the government s efforts in peacebuilding related sectors and the perceived risk of electoral violence. This can be explained by the fact that people who are very unsatisfied are more aggressive and cynical with regards to the risk of violence, or that they judge the government s capacity to contain violence negatively. Satisfaction Score regarding the Government s efforts (1-very positive 5 very negative) in relation with the perceived risk of electoral violence 4.0 Score Moyen None Low Some High Very High Perception du risque de violence électorale Data from March-June 2016 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/

11 KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS (JUN. 2016) The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences between territories - detailed results by territories are available on the site. Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory. SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe very safe) Latest data (March 2016 June 2016) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Daily activities Walking alone at night 67% 70% 7 76% 76% 75% 44% 46% 51% 5 54% 5 Dec Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust for security) Latest data (March 2016 June 2016) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Police FARDC MONUSCO 61% Police FARDC MONUSCO 51% 54% 54% 51% 48% 57% 55% 26% 4 35% 18% 5 46% 48% 48% 24% % 49% 50% 51% 48% 25% 26% 24% 24% 25% 2 NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/

12 PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% good very good) Latest data (March 2016 June 2016) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Relations with your ethnic group Relations with your ethnic group Relations with other ethnic groups 89% 84% 84% 74% 76% 7 77% 7 66% 79% Relations with other ethnic groups 81% % 77% 74% 77% 77% 76% 7 NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun TRUST IN JUSTICE (% little none) Latest data (March 2016 June 2016) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Civilian justice system Civilian justice system 7 70% 67% 67% Military justice system 70% 70% 67% 6 69% 65% Military justice system 75% 75% 7 71% 75% 75% 70% 7 69% 67% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 7, 08/