Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls. Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Poll Report #1, March Content:

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1 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo Poll Report #1, March 2015 (ember Data) By Patrick Vinck, Phuong Pham Content: p3. After strong improvement, security remains stable in territoires of the Petit Nord but confidence in security actors declines p5. Incidence of crimes decreased, except in Bukavu. Incidence of sexual violence is unchanged. p6. Trust in justice actors improves, but challenges remain

2 About the Poll Results for this poll are based on 1,547 one-one-one interviews conducted in ember with randomly selected adults in the cities of Goma, Bukavu, and Bunia, and the territoires of Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Masisi (Petit Nord). The margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Province / District Territoire / City Sample size North Kivu Goma 225 Nyiragongo 223 Rutshuru 249 Masisi 219 South Kivu Bukavu 331 Ituri Bunia 300 TOTAL - - 1,547 About the Project This poll is the first of a series of polls that will be conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, and independent analysis, and reporting of the results, in collaboration with partners at the Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu, and Université de Bunia. Previous publications: For more details, visit or contact info@peacebuilding.org Vinck P, Pham PN (). Searching for Lasting Peace: Population-Based Survey on Perceptions and Attitudes about Peace, Security and Justice in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Programme. Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners

3 After strong improvement, security remains stable in territoires of the Petit Nord but confidence in security actors declines GOMA, 03/2015 Following the defeat of the M23 in late, the population s sense of security has significantly improved in the Petit Nord region of North Kivu, Eastern DRC, an area encompassing the territoires of Rutshuru, Masisi and Nyiragongo at the center of the successive wars in the region (Walikale was not included in this poll). In ember, a majority of residents in the territoires of Rutshuru (88%), Masisi (83%), and Nyiragongo (78%) in North Kivu reported improvement in their security situation compared to the previous year. Improvement in security was also frequently reported in the provincial capital of Goma, North Kivu (53%). In the other provincial and district capitals of eastern DRC, Bukavu (South Kivu), and Bunia (Ituri) however, between one in five and one in three respondents reported being less safe compared to a year before. Despite the important gains in security compared to the situation in, insecurity remains high, especially in urban areas. The proportion of residents in the territoires of the Petit Nord reporting insecurity in various situations were similar in ember and ember, suggesting that after rapid gains following the defeat of the M23, the security situation has remained stable or even worsened as the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) and MONUSCO troops have largely moved away. In urban areas, the sense of security has generally improved when comparing results from the two polls. Walking alone at night remains one of the activities perceived as the least safe, especially in urban areas. Sense of Security in compared to 4% 7% 13% 4% 14% 8% 88% 83% 78% Similar Rutshuru (NK) Masisi (NK) Nyiragongo (NK) Less safe 27% 29% 34% 53% 37% 25% More safe 20% 37% 38% Goma (NK) Bukavu (SK) Bunia (It.) Data from ember - Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls in DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll Report 1, 03/2015 3

4 In all the territoires, God and the community itself continued to be most frequently identified as the purveyor of security, more than any other formal security actor. Qualitative data suggests that areas of the Petit Nord that were previously patrolled regularly by the FARDC and/or MONUSCO are no longer monitored since the defeat of the M23, feeding a sense that no one is there to provide security. In addition, trust in the ability of selected actors to provide security, including the police, the FARDC and MONUSCO, has remained stable or decreased when comparing data from ember and ember. The FARDC remain the most trusted actor to ensure security. Residents, however, note differences between commandos and other FARDC troops the former being more appreciated. Respondents in urban areas have the least trust in the police, FARDC, and MONUSCO to provide security. This likely reflects day to day harassment and corruption, combined with higher sense of insecurity. Trust in MONUSCO to ensure security is stable. Respondents seem to distinguish between the FIB which is well understood and respected since the defeat of the M23, and the rest of the force. Change in perception of security in selected situations (% safe/very safe) Daily activities Walk alone at night 100% 80% 71% 75% 71% 87% 77% 85% 60% 40% 20% 51% 13% 60% 16% 53% 53% 32% 27% 47% 58% 40% 53% 53% 61% 25% 32% 33% 31% 0% Goma Nyiragongo Rutshuru Masisi Bukavu Bunia Trust to provide security (% yes) MONUSCO 20% 21% 42% 37% 48% 41% 48% 40% 19% 11% 18% 14% FARDC 52% 40% 83% 82% 84% 70% 86% 75% 27% 17% 36% 26% Police 48% 24% 63% 65% 72% 60% 60% 63% 39% 18% 49% 42% Goma Nyiragongo Rutshuru Masisi Bukavu Bunia Data from ember and ember - Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls in DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll Report 1, 03/2015 4

5 Incidence of crimes decreased, except in Bukavu. Prevalence of sexual violence is unchanged. Self-reported incidence of crimes over the one year period prior to the poll decreased in all the territoires, except Bukavu, where the one-year self-reported incidence of theft, physical violence, sorcery, and corruption increased. Theft remained the most common type of crime reported, with important reduction in Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Masisi. The incidence of interpersonal disputes decreased in all of the territoires and urban areas, except Masisi, where reported disputes increased nearly two-fold, with over half the disputes centered on land boundaries and land ownership. With regards to sexual violence, incidence rates for the one-year period before the interview ranged from less than 1% to 5%. Differences with the baseline are within the margin of error. Nine out of ten residents indicated they would welcome back in their household a woman victim of sexual violence. They also said they would welcome back a spouse victim of sexual violence, even if she had a child as a result of the violence. However, nearly all the victims of sexual violence residing in Rutshuru, Masisi, and Nyiragongo said they were rejected by their household. Victims residing in cities were generally accepted back in their household. Incidence of selected crimes and events (% who experienced in the last year) Any dispute 30% 25% 28% 22% 30% 23% 15% 26% 31% 22% 31% 29% Corruption 34% 19% 33% 13% 68% 27% 22% 11% 18% 42% 16% 18% Sorcery 13% 18% 21% 17% 24% 16% 12% 17% 14% 27% 9% 17% Phys. Violence with weapon 23% 13% 32% 7% 68% 15% 25% 6% 11% 21% 11% 20% Phys. Violence without weapon 28% 20% 33% 17% 35% 25% 11% 11% 16% 29% 16% 17% Theft 45% 44% 68% 38% 84% 43% 57% 44% 36% 41% 34% 36% Goma Nyiragongo Rutshuru Masisi Bukavu Bunia Data from ember and ember - Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls in DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll Report 1, 03/2015 5

6 Mistrust in formal justice actors deepens, many challenges remain Despite improved access to justice, residents in all of the surveyed area reported lower levels of trust in the civil and military justice systems when comparing results from ember and ember. Trust in mobile clinics (civilian) and law clinics was low across all territoires. In comparison, civil society efforts and traditional justice mechanisms enjoyed higher and growing levels of trust between ember and ember. Trust was assessed rather than knowledge, because the baseline showed the two variables were associated. Confirming the deepening mistrust, few residents believed that tribunals treat everyone fairly and equally (ranging from 8% to 12% in urban areas, and 19% to 27% in the territoires of Petit Nord ). Similarly, few believed that tribunal decisions are taken fairly (8% in urban areas, 17% to 27% in the territoires of Petit Nord ). Trust in selected actors in the justice sector (% with some to a lot of trust) Civil justice system (tribunals) 36% 17% 44% 45% 50% 25% 44% 25% 28% 23% 38% 11% Mobile clinics (civilian) n/a 27% n/a 41% n/a 22% n/a 12% n/a 19% n/a 14% Law clinic n/a 37% n/a 51% n/a 30% n/a 18% n/a 21% n/a 13% Military justice 34% 20% 42% 33% 39% 19% 30% 24% 24% 21% 34% 12% NGO justice projects 51% 75% 47% 87% 77% 82% 61% 71% 46% 47% 56% 59% Local peace committees n/a 55% n/a 73% n/a 63% n/a 43% n/a 45% n/a 51% Barza communautaires 46% 66% 58% 81% 59% 69% 53% 43% 46% 46% 53% 42% Customary justice 44% 64% 53% 76% 77% 78% 61% 55% 51% 43% 59% 42% Goma Nyiragongo Rutshuru Masisi Bukavu Bunia Data from ember and ember - Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls in DRC Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Poll Report 1, 03/2015 6