U.S. Food Aid and Civil Conflict

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1 Web Appendix for U.S. Food Aid and Civil Conflict Nathan Nunn Harvard University, BREAD, NBER Nancy Qian Yale University, BREAD, NBER (Not for Publication) August

2 1. Introduction This appendix accompanies U.S. Food Aid and Civil Conflict by Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian. Section 2 provides a detailed explanation of the data and their sources. Section 3 reports additional tables and figures mentioned in the paper, but not reported explicitly. 2. Data and Their Sources Conflict. Our baseline measure of the existence of conflict is constructed using data from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, where a conflict is defined as the use of armed force between two parties that results in at least 25 battle deaths in a year. Although we focus on intra-state conflicts (i.e. civil conflicts), we also consider inter-state conflicts and conflicts of all types. An intra-state conflict is defined as a conflict between a government and one or more internal opposition groups, without intervention from other states. An inter-state conflict is defined as a conflict occurring between two or more states. The measure of all conflicts includes intra- and inter-state conflicts, as well as a small number of conflicts labelled by UCDP/PRIO as extra-systemic or internationalized conflicts. Extra-systemic conflicts are conflicts between a state and non-state group that occur outside of the government s territory. Internationalized conflicts are conflicts between a state and a non-state group with intervention from another state. In auxiliary regressions, we also use conflict incidence data from the Correlates of War Database. This uses a 1000 death threshold. U.S. wheat production. Annual U.S. wheat production is taken from the United States Department of Agriculture. It is originally reported in metric tons. In the analysis, we measure production in thousands of metric tons. U.S. wheat aid. Wheat aid data are from the FAO s FAOSTAT Database, accessed in August The database is located at The figures are measured in metric tons, and include wheat and wheat flour. The FAO item code is In the analysis, we measure U.S. wheat aid in thousands of tonnes. Monthly country-average temperature and precipitation. The measures are constructed using country boundaries and monthly weather data measured across grid-cells from the Terrestrial Air Temperature and Precipitation: Gridded Monthly Time Series, Version The 2

3 data report daily mean temperature (measured in degrees Celsius) and daily mean precipitation (measured in millimeters) with 0.5 degree by 0.5 degree (approximately 56 km by 56 km) grid-cells globally for each month from 1900 to For documentation see Kenji Matsuura and Cort Willmott (2007). We construct area-weighted country averages of the monthly temperature and precipitation variables. Region fixed effects. Our region-fixed effects are constructed using the World Bank region classification. Within our sample, which excludes high-income OECD countries, the regions are: East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and sub-saharan Africa. 3

4 3. Additional Tables 4

5 Table A1: Part 1: Countries and their propensity to receive U.S. food aid. Fraction of years a country received any Recipient iso code Recipient country name U.S. wheat aid, RUS Russia SAU Saudi Arabia QAT Qatar COM Comoros BWA Botswana BHS Bahamas OMN Oman VEN Venezuela, RB KWT Kuwait PNG Papua New Guinea LBY Libya ZAF South Africa ARG Argentina CUB Cuba TLS Timor-Leste BRN Brunei Darussalam ARE United Arab Emirates TTO Trinidad and Tobago THA Thailand FJI Fiji CMR Cameroon NAM Namibia ROU Romania IRN Iran, Islamic Rep SEN Senegal URY Uruguay NGA Nigeria SLB Solomon Islands LVA Latvia BLZ Belize TUR Turkey BTN Bhutan BGR Bulgaria MYS Malaysia LAO Lao PDR MEX Mexico UZB Uzbekistan LTU Lithuania KAZ Kazakhstan CHN China GAB Gabon ZWE Zimbabwe TZA Tanzania CIV Cote d'ivoire CYP Cyprus TGO Togo SYR Syrian Arab Republic GMB Gambia AGO Angola KHM Cambodia SUR Suriname GNB Guinea-Bissau CPV Cape Verde DZA Algeria MNG Mongolia IRQ Iraq UKR Ukraine BLR Belarus PAN Panama CAF Central African Republic DJI Djibouti BEN Benin PRY Paraguay

6 Table A1: Part 2: Countries and their propensity to receive U.S. food aid. Fraction of years a country received any Recipient iso code Recipient country name U.S. wheat aid, NER Niger MDG Madagascar ALB Albania ERI Eritrea SWZ Swaziland UGA Uganda NPL Nepal MLI Mali GIN Guinea MWI Malawi ZMB Zambia BDI Burundi CHL Chile COG Congo, Rep LBR Liberia BRA Brazil COL Colombia MUS Mauritius LBN Lebanon TKM Turkmenistan IND India TCD Chad COD Congo, Dem. Rep ETH Ethiopia SLE Sierra Leone SOM Somalia LSO Lesotho DOM Dominican Republic CRI Costa Rica BFA Burkina Faso PHL Philippines ECU Ecuador TUN Tunisia RWA Rwanda MDA Moldova JAM Jamaica AFG Afghanistan GHA Ghana MAR Morocco KEN Kenya MOZ Mozambique EGY Egypt, Arab Rep NIC Nicaragua MRT Mauritania SLV El Salvador GUY Guyana SDN Sudan KGZ Kyrgyz Republic JOR Jordan GTM Guatemala PAK Pakistan ARM Armenia AZE Azerbaijan LKA Sri Lanka IDN Indonesia PER Peru BOL Bolivia TJK Tajikistan HND Honduras HTI Haiti GEO Georgia BGD Bangladesh

7 Table A2: Pairwise correlations between country characteristics and the average propensity of a country to receive food aid from Correlate of interest: Military aid Economic aid Cereal imports Cereal production Per capita income Polity2 Ethnic diversity Ethnic polarization Resource share of GDP Alignment with U.S. Roads per capita Avg propensity to receive U.S. wheat aid, (0.128) (0.004) (0.042) (0.084) (0.000) (0.913) (0.503) (0.082) (0.006) (0.364) (0.001) Obs Notes: The table reports pairwise correlation coefficients between the reported variable and the average propensity of a country to receive food aid from the United States. P-values are reported in parenthesis. Table A3: Pairwise correlations between time-varying characteristics and lagged U.S. wheat production. U.S. real per capita GDP Correlate of interest: Oil price (2011 USD) Indicator: US Democratic President Indicator: Cold War Lagged U.S. wheat production (0.078) (0.247) (0.247) (0.149) Obs Notes : The table reports pairwise correlation coefficients between the reported variable and one-year lagged U.S. wheat production. P-values are reported in parenthesis. Table A4: First-stage placebo regressions. Lag Production (1000 MT) x Avg Prob of Any U.S. Food Aid Aid (1000 MT) Dependent Variable: Aid (1000 MT), Period t-2 Aid (1000 MT), Period t-3 (1) (2) (3) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations 4,089 3,870 3,759 R-squared Notes: OLS estimates are reported. The unit of observation is a country in a year. The sample includes 125 non- OECD countries for the years All regressions include the full set of baseline controls (see Table 2 columns (5)-(7) for a full list). Coefficients are reported, with standard errors clustered at the country level. 7

8 Table A5: First-stage estimates for other donor countries. USA Canada Dependent Variable: Donor Wheat Aid (1000 MT) European Union Australia Japan Sweden (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Lagged Donor Wheat Production (1000 MT) x Avg Prob of Donor Food Aid ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations 4,089 4,089 4,089 4,089 4,089 4,089 R-squared Notes: OLS estimates are reported. The unit of observation is a country in a year. The sample includes 125 non-oecd countries for the years All regressions include the full set of baseline controls (see Table 2 columns (5)-(7) for a full list) except that for non-us countries: (i) average probability of donor food aid interacted with a US Democratic president indicator is omitted, and (ii) the control for U.S. real per capita GDP interacted with average food aid probability is replaced with donor country real per capita GDP interacted with average food aid probability. Coefficients are reported, with standard errors clustered at the country level. Table A6: Total wheat aid shipments over the sample period Donor name Donor's total wheat aid shipments, Donor's share of global wheat aid shipments, New Zealand 2, Libya 31, China 128, Greece 163, Austria 223, Turkey 250, Argentina 402, Spain 414, Norway 443, Switzerland 467, Finland 535, India 692, Sweden 2,165, Japan 3,238, Australia 7,773, EU 17,006, Canada 22,521, USA 119,290, TOTAL 175,751, Notes: The EU includes Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, and Great Britain. We report separately wheat aid shipments of countries that joined the EU after Jan 1, These countries include: Austria (joined in 1995), Finland (1995), Greece (1981), Spain (1986), and Sweden (joined in 1995). Wheat aid shipments are measured in thousands of metric tons, and are from the FAO. 8

9 Table A7: Relationship between U.S. wheat aid shipped in different periods and civil conflict in year t. Aid (t-4) Aid (t-3) Aid (t-2) Dependent Variable: Incidence of Civil Conflict in year t Aid (t-1) Aid (t) Aid (t+1) Aid (t+2) Aid (t+3) Aid (t+4) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Aid (1,000 MT) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations 3,647 3,759 3,870 3,980 4,089 3,964 3,839 3,714 3,589 Notes: 2SLS estimates are reported. The sample includes 125 non-oecd countries for the years In all columns, Aid is instrumented by U.S. wheat production in the previous year x the frequency of receiving any U.S. food aid during The regressions include the full set of baseline controls. See Table 2, columns (5)-(7) for a list. Coefficients are reported with standard errors clustered at the country level in parentheses. Table A8: Duration estimates. Heterogeneous effects I. Logistic Discrete Time Hazard Model. Dep var: Offset of civil conflict Income Natural resources Polity Ethnic polarization Ethnic diversity (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Aid (1000 MT): Coefficient Standard error ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations First-stage F-stat Aid (1000 MT): Panel A. High value subsample Panel B. Low value subsample Coefficient Standard error ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations First-stage F-stat Notes: In all specifications, Aid in year t is instrumented by U.S. wheat production in year t-1 x the probability of receiving any U.S. food aid between 1971 and The table reports estimates of a discrete time hazard model for the incidence of civil war offset. In this setting, survival is continued conflict. The coefficients reported are marginal effects evaluated at means. The control function approach is used to generate IV estimates for the hazard models. Panel A reports estimates for observations above the median value of the characteristic reported in the column heading. Panel B reports estimates for observations below the median value of the characteristic reported in the column heading. 9

10 Table A9: Duration estimates. Heterogeneous effects II. Logistic Discrete Time Hazard Model. Dep var: Offset of civil conflict Average per capita cereal production, Per capita cereal production relative to historical average Road density Cold War Alignment with the US (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Aid (1000 MT): Coefficient Standard error ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations First-stage F-stat Aid (1000 MT): High value subsample Low value subsample Coefficient Standard error ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Observations First-stage F-stat Notes: In all specifications, Aid in year t is instrumented by U.S. wheat production in year t-1 x the probability of receiving any U.S. food aid between 1971 and The table reports estimates of a discrete time hazard model for the incidence of civil war offset. In this setting, survival is continued conflict. The coefficients reported are marginal effects evaluated at means. The control function approach is used to generate IV estimates for the hazard models. Panel A reports estimates for observations above the median value of the characteristic reported in the column heading. Panel B reports estimates for observations below the median value of the characteristic reported in the column heading. In column (4), Panel A reports estimates for Cold War years, while Panel B reports estimates for years after the Cold War. 10

11 4. Additional Figures U.S. wheat production (mil MT) Year Figure A1: Aggregate U.S. wheat production over time,

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AFG1992 CAF1978 COL2002 LKA1988 SEN1990 BFA1976 BOL1995 OMN1996 BRA1986 MLI1975 ROU1972 ERI2000 IND2006 MWI1980 GAB2001 COG1999 PRY1978 CMR1990 SUR1984 DZA1992 PAK1977 GEO2001 MNG2004 THA1973 KEN2001 MDA1998 IND2005 BDI2000 NAM2005 TCD1994 DZA1973 CPV2003 JOR1993 GEO1993 TTO2000 GHA1976 ETH1993 AGO2002 BDI1980 LAO1988 KAZ1998 TUR2002 AFG1972 GTM1995 MLI1972 NAM1996 BGR2005 IND2002 MWI1978 NPL1996 PRY1990 LSO1994 ARE1983 SWZ1984 SLB1997 JAM1980 ROU1979 LSO1995 ZAF1989 SLE2001 DZA1972 NPL2000 BWA1992 JAM1987 ZAF1971 SOM1982 LAO1990 QAT1991 LTU2002 SUR2004 ARM1992 BGD1987 ZAF2002 MYS1993 COL2005 TGO1992 FJI1992 ECU1999 GHA1987 KWT2001 ETH1998 NIC1984 NER1980 GTM1988 COM1977 COL1989 ZWE1978 MLI1973 IRN1972 TUN1987 IRN1992 NER1975 VEN2000 MUS2001 IRN2002 DJI2000 DJI2002 COL1975 SWZ1998 AGO2006 LBY1979 TCD1976 BEN2006 IND1992 RUS1998 CRI1994 KGZ1995 OMN2000 CIV1975 COG1998 DZA1974 PNG1987 CHL1982 MAR1976 JAM1985 ARG1997 ARG1989 LTU1992 MWI2002 TUR1975 GMB1978 TZA1996 NIC1982 MRT1988 COG1984 RUS1981 GNB1996 ZWE2003 SLE2004 SLV1981 BLZ2004 NAM1992 KHM2002 GHA1988 IRQ2002 MDG1973 NER1972 BEN1989 BDI1975 DJI1978 JAM2005 CHN1975 TZA1990 DOM1982 BGD2001 PAN1990 JAM1993 CAF2002 ARE1981 COL2006 IND2000 ALB1992 ROU1988 JAM1998 BDI2005 GEO1996 TJK1993 MDG1971 NER1974 MLI2003 CUB1977 UGA1980 CPV1975 BEN1975 TUR2001 GNB1977 LBY1988 TTO1990 SDN1995 UGA2005 COG1993 LSO2001 GTM1976 IRQ1977 LKA2004 JOR1986 PRY1996 ARG1994 JAM1973 CMR2005 LTU2003 KEN1995 HND1997 SYR1977 IND1978 BGD1994 TUN1976 BEN1972 AFG1971 TUN1995 LBR2002 GMB1992 KHM1980 MWI1979 BGR1982 ARM1993 SLV1984 DOM1999 FJI2006 BEN1980 GMB2005 PHL2001 SOM1991 BDI1974 NGA1996 UZB1996 SEN1996 ARE1991 CIV1972 CRI1986 ROU2006 ZWE1979 SLB1987 NIC1993 SLV1971 JOR1998 GIN1994 PRY2000 OMN1978 PER1995 PER2001 URY2006 SYR1978 JOR1999 MYS1984 JAM1981 BDI1989 LBN1999 VEN1990 MUS1976 BRA1982 PAN1992 CMR1978 AZE1997 GIN1984 DJI1980 AGO1989 PRY1992 UGA1972 CHL1983 CIV1989 SEN2000 MYS2004 SAU2003 GIN1998 UGA2002 MUS2004 ALB2000 DOM1983 ZWE1971 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MEX1992 IRQ2005 TCD1993 TCD1999 KWT2000 DJI1989 IND1975 KHM2005 TZA1992 LBR1978 FJI1977 DZA1979 JAM1999 SYR2005 BHS1996 CAF1972 BFA2004 CUB2000 ARG1980 ARG2004 JOR1985 MEX2005 COG1985 RUS1983 LBY1971 BLZ1987 IND1989 CHN2002 IRN2005 CMR1992 LAO1978 CIV1973 SEN1992 IDN2004 PAK1984 CMR1996 BFA1981 SEN1978 BWA2005 NER2003 VEN1978 CUB1990 LBN1998 THA1971 LBN1993 EGY1976 NGA2005 SLE1994 ECU1984 LKA1997 AFG1980 HTI1981 MNG1972 PRY1972 PNG1990 URY1992 TUN2001 MDA2004 LAO1972 AFG1989 PRY1980 IND1980 EGY2004 MAR2004 ALB1971 MAR1988 ARM1997 RWA1981 NGA1992 TUR1989 PAK1995 JAM1982 TGO2002 PHL2004 CAF2006 TJK1998 COG1986 NIC1981 ALB2005 TCD1984 SLE1981 GMB1989 GMB1980 RUS2003 PAK2001 TTO2005 AGO1979 ERI2006 RUS1984 RWA2001 PRY1975 DZA1971 FJI1974 LSO1999 CHN1974 TUR1979 BHS2000 TUN1981 SEN2005 TUR1971 BGR1991 MOZ1999 BHS1977 KAZ2000 NER1973 MOZ1995 BFA1994 IRQ1989 LAO2000 TUN1998 KAZ1993 LBR2006 PNG1996 BGD1995 PAK1981 TTO2002 BDI1973 OMN2002 JOR1983 MLI1979 IRN1975 COL1979 BEN1973 COM1996 NPL1978 URY1975 NAM2002 GHA1994 PAK1994 HTI1976 NIC1985 SWZ1985 ARM2004 IDN1988 LSO1984 GMB1972 URY2005 MEX1975 BHS1992 KGZ1993 ALB1974 UGA1974 NAM2006 KHM2006 TJK1995 BGR1983 COM1990 NER1971 BGD1993 MEX1972 NGA1978 PER1976 TGO1975 LBY1989 CRI1982 MEX1973 SLV1991 SYR1989 ECU1986 SLB1996 ETH1983 RWA1993 OMN1972 TTO1989 GHA1981 GIN1985 PHL1995 LVA2006 IDN1995 TUR1996 BTN1990 UGA1973 GUY1995 TCD1986 CUB2005 URY1974 SYR1972 CRI1991 GEO1997 AGO2003 SLB1990 KHM1973 KHM1989 GUY1993 MUS1995 NPL2005 IRN1980 CRI1983 TZA2005 RWA1999 TZA1978 URY2002 ETH1982 AFG2002 OMN1980 GNB1978 MEX2006 GMB1975 SYR2006 IND1973 SLB1978 IDN2001 NIC1999 CAF1974 BDI1979 SYR1980 GNB1992 TGO1989 LSO1993 PNG1978 LBR1980 BRN1984 PHL1994 SYR1975 TTO1975 LSO1986 BLZ2001 NPL1992 TGO2006 ARM1998 JOR1982 CMR1975 MYS1983 IND1971 MUS1994 BDI1971 CUB1992 NER1979 AZE2004 PAN2005 CUB1978 JOR1991 MEX1989 OMN1975 MDA1993 EGY1998 BOL1998 KGZ1994 MEX2002 SEN2006 MRT1995 ETH1991 IRQ1980 SWZ1983 AZE1999 MYS1982 GNB2005 COM2002 BEN2003 LBR1975 TGO1972 ALB2006 COG1991 IRQ2006 TJK2004 TGO1980 TCD1985 JAM1991 LBR1989 CIV1979 BOL1994 BEN1971 UZB1992 SLE1984 PRY1989 HND1995 BRN1999 SDN1976 ECU1985 GTM1994 GEO1999 MAR1994 IND1974 FJI1989 CIV1971 IRN1974 NPL2006 SEN1972 BDI2003 SLE1998 MAR1993 VEN2005 PRY2002 AFG2006 URY1972 SEN2002 CHN1972 IRQ1975 PER2004 LBN1986 CHN1973 BGD1976 KHM1974 PRY1974 GHA1998 SWZ1982 LAO1980 LVA1992 BEN1979 PAN2002 RWA1984 ARM1994 CAF1973 BOL1981 SWZ1991 BFA1999 PAK1976 HND1999 MEX1980 IRN1973 BHS1978 BTN1978 PAN1978 NPL2002 ECU1995 BHS2005 BWA1980 MAR1995 AZE1998 BWA1978 MEX1974 PRY2006 PRY1973 FJI1972 AFG1979 GTM1999 GMB1974 SLB2005 SLB1992 EGY1994 HTI1993 ECU1983 MOZ1998 NIC1983 RUS1976 NGA1975 SYR1974 HTI1998 UGA1979 GNB2006 SLE1999 LAO2005 CIV2003 COL2003 BFA1998 LBR1972 COM2005 GEO1998 TTO2006 LAO1975 MOZ1993 LBN1985 SEN1980 FJI2003 COM1992 CUB1980 OMN2006 UZB2002 LAO2002 HND1998 UGA2003 UGA1971 DJI2003 OMN1974 BGD1999 ARM1999 COL1971 CHN1971 CMR1980 TUN2004 CHN1979 LAO1974 MDA2001 GNB2002 COG1983 MRT1994 DJI1979 CMR1972 BWA2002 BOL1999 NIC1991 TZA2006 BGD2004 TGO1974 TZA1972 URY1980 GUY1984 BFA1993 COG1982 NGA2002 IND1979 GIN1982 CPV1979 SEN1975 GNB1980 GMB1973 BFA1984 KHM1979 JAM1983 ARG1979 LKA1998 TTO1972 NPL1989 NGA1980 SDN2004 VEN1975 BLZ2000 SLE1986 SLV1982 GHA1999 HND1981 LKA1981 NGA2006 SEN1989 HND1976 MRT2004 TZA2002 BOL1993 OMN1989 LVA2002 TZA1980 PNG1992 GEO1994 NGA1972 CMR2002 GIN1991 PER1981 KHM2003 PAN1989 SLE1993 NPL1975 TUN1994 BLZ1996 GIN1983 BWA2006 FJI1973 CMR2006 OMN2005 NGA1989 PNG2005 BHS1980 BWA1975 CAF1979 URY1989 CMR1989 TZA1975 IRQ1972 KEN1981 RUS1982 SYR1973 GUY1994 TTO1973 AFG2003 NPL1972 IRQ1974 BTN1992 NPL1980 PHL1981 SDN1981 MUS1981 BHS2002 CAF1971 TTO1974 KEN1994 TCD1991 VEN2002 MAR1998 PAN1980 KHM1971 MUS1998 TCD1983 TCD1982 PER1994 PAN2006 LKA1994 GEO2004 EGY1986 SLB2006 SDN1994 VEN1980 KGZ1998 URY1973 GNB1975 TGO1973 IND2003 MAR1999 CUB1975 OMN1973 SLV1983 PAN1975 ECU1991 RWA1986 COM1975 BWA1989 LKA1999 LBN1983 GNB1989 GUY1998 AZE1994 PAK1998 BHS1975 KEN1998 CMR1974 LBR1974 BFA1986 KEN1993 MOZ1984 LBN1982 LBR2003 BRN1985 PER1998 SLB1980 GTM1998 MAR1984 PHL1984 BLZ1990 PNG2002 BGD1998 TZA1989 GHA1993 BWA1972 GHA1984 CAF2003 HTI1984 MAR1981 SLB2002 HND1984 BTN2005 PAK1999 PAK1993 HND1993 IRN1971 CUB1972 TUR2005 UZB2005 LAO2006 IDN1976 GTM1984 PER1999 BTN1975 SEN1974 LSO1983 PNG1975 EGY1993 EGY1999 MUS1984 IRQ1973 ROU2003 MUS1999 EGY1984 GMB2003 LAO1973 LKA1993 IRN2003 BOL1986 VEN1974 TTO1979 FJI1971 CUB2002 HTI1986 LBN1991 NGA1974 TUN1993 TUN1984 GTM1981 PER1993 SYR2003 MEX1971 LKA1984 SLB1989 LBR1973 GNB1974 ECU1982 CUB2006 NAM2003 IDN1994 GMB1971 MUS1993 MRT1993 HTI1999 TZA1974 VEN1972 MRT1999 PHL1993 LAO1989 VEN2006 SEN1973 URY1971 ERI2003 LSO1985 SYR1971 TUN1999 HND1985 EGY1985 IRQ2003 MOZ1986 PNG1989 GHA1986 TTO1971 VEN1989 TUR2006 UZB2000 RWA1991 KEN1984 COM1980 HTI1995 IRN1979 BWA1974 VEN1973 URY2003 RWA1982 GTM1993 PNG1980 MRT1981 CMR1973 TGO2003 BTN2006 KEN1999 SLE1985 LSO1982 BHS1989 GMB1979 MEX2003 GUY1986 BTN2002 LSO1991 NPL1974 TGO1971 BLZ1992 GTM1986 PHL1998 RWA1983 PAN1972 COM2006 HTI1985 BHS2006 NGA1973 SDN1998 MEX1979 BFA1985 ALB2003 MRT1984 BRN1991 PRY2003 NPL1973 PRY1971 TTO2003 TGO1979 GUY1999 PNG2006 PER1984 TZA1973 PRY1979 RWA1985 TJK1999 BTN1989 LKA1986 PAK1986 PHL1986 MRT1998 PAN1973 BWA1973 UZB2006 CUB1989 OMN1979 BTN1972 BHS1973 PAK1985 SYR1979 CUB1974 HND1986 URY1979 PAN1974 BHS1974 SDN1999 IRQ1971 NPL1971 LBR1971 CUB1973 SDN1993 OMN1971 LAO1971 SDN1984 CMR1971 PHL1999 TUN1985 COM1989 BGD1985 KGZ1999 TUN1986 LVA2003 IDN1993 BGD1984 HTI1982 EGY1983 BTN1980 MUS1986 MOZ1985 GUY1985 BTN1974 LBR1979 TLS2003 MRT1986 BFA1991 BGD1986 HND1982 IDN1981 BOL1984 SEN1971 BFA1982 NGA1971 GUY1983 LAO1979 GHA1985 SLE1991 GNB2003 CMR1979 LAO2003 SEN2003 KEN1986 BLZ2005 IRQ1979 SLE1982 MUS1985 TZA1971 NGA2003 IDN1998 CMR2003 GTM1985 TUR2003 GUY1982 EGY1991 BFA1983 SLE1983 NGA1979 PER1986 PHL1985 GNB1979 EGY1982 BWA2003 SEN1979 GHA1991 MAR1986 GUY1991 HND1991 TZA2003 HTI1983 PAK1991 NPL2003 OMN2003 NPL1979 KEN1985 BTN1973 VEN1979 IDN1999 MOZ1982 BOL1985 MOZ1983 CUB1971 VEN1971 SLB2003 SLB1979 SDN1986 TZA1979 GHA1983 HND1983 BWA1971 GHA1982 PAN2003 BHS1979 LKA1985 HTI1991 BLZ2002 PNG2003 TUN1982 BLZ2006 MAR1985 PAK1982 IDN1984 GTM1982 TUN1983 GTM1991 COM1979 CUB1979 BTN1971 COM2003 SDN1985 MOZ1991 PAN1971 BWA1979 PAK1983 PER1985 VEN2003 BLZ1989 MUS1983 LKA1982 BOL1991 TUN1991 MUS1991 PNG1979 PAN1979 LKA1983 MUS1982 BOL1983 MAR1991 BHS2003 CUB2003 MAR1982 BGD1991 MRT1985 BGD1983 BGD1982 GTM1983 PHL1983 PHL1982 KEN1983 LKA1991 BOL1982 KEN1991 KEN1982 PER1983 PHL1991 SDN1982 PER1991 BTN2003 MRT1982 BTN1979 SDN1991 IDN1986 MRT1991 SDN1983 UZB2003 MAR1983 PER1982 MRT1983 IDN1985 BLZ2003 IDN1991 IDN1982 IDN E (Civil Conflict X) E ( Aid X) (coef = , s.e. = , N = 4,089) Figure A2: Partial correlate plot: Baseline estimate. 12

13 BTN1983 PHL1979 BTN1991 BTN1982 PHL2003 MRT1979 MRT2003 BLZ1983 CUB1983 PER1979 MAR2003 BLZ1982 SDN1979 MAR1979 BLZ1991 CUB1982 CUB1991 SDN2003 KEN1979 KEN2003 PER2003 SDN1971 LKA2003 BOL2003 VEN1982 VEN1991 MUS2003 MRT1971 GTM2003 MUS1979 VEN1983 COM1982 PAK1971 BHS1991 BTN1985 LKA1971 TZA1982 LKA1979 MOZ1979 GUY2003 TUN1979 PAK1979 PAN1991 KEN1971 MOZ2003 BGD1979 BHS1983 TZA1983 TUN1971 PER1971 NPL1991 SEN1983 PAK2003 BHS1982 GTM1979 PAN1983 TZA1991 BWA1991 CUB1985 PAN1982 BGD2003 NPL1982 NPL1983 BOL1979 TUN2003 NGA1983 PHL1971 SEN1982 COM1983 NGA1982 MUS1971 BOL1971 NGA1991 BGD2006 BTN1986 SEN1991 GNB1983 UZB1999 LAO1991 GNB1982 LAO1982 BWA1983 COM1991 HND2003 GHA1979 SDN1973 MAR1971 VEN1985 GHA2003 URY1983 CMR1983 BLZ1985 CMR1991 BWA1982 CMR1982 LKA1974 GNB1991 MRT1974 LAO1983 MRT1973 KGZ2003 CUB1986 BHS1985 HTI2003 SLB1991 PNG1991 MDA2003 PER1973 GUY1979 OMN1991 BWA1985 EGY2003 TZA1985 MEX1983 PHL1973 PHL1989 SDN1989 KEN1973 GEO2003 EGY1979 PAN1985 SEN1985 BFA1979 NGA1985 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SDN1975 TUN1972 PER2006 BWA1984 MRT1975 VEN1999 GNB1986 UZB1993 NAM1991 SDN1980 TLS2004 CMR1986 LKA1989 BOL2005 RWA1971 CUB1999 HND2006 SEN1986 MUS1974 TJK2003 MRT2002 MEX1985 VEN1984 PER2002 LSO1979 ECU1979 PAN1984 KEN1975 SLB1982 BLZ1984 HTI1980 GUY1989 CAF1983 BRN1989 MOZ2006 KEN2002 PNG1999 LKA2002 PRY1985 PHL1978 TZA1984 BLZ1993 BLZ1999 PHL1975 GHA1973 SLE1973 CAF1982 COM1984 IND1983 LBR1985 KEN2006 CAF1991 BWA1986 TUN1978 BWA1993 MUS1972 BHS1984 MAR2006 CUB1981 MOZ1980 LBR1986 BOL1980 URY1984 IND1982 LAO1986 BFA1974 HND1979 HTI1989 HTI1974 BHS1993 PAN1993 TUR1999 EGY1973 GHA2006 EGY1989 UGA1983 GMB1985 CUB1993 MAR2005 PAK1972 ALB1999 TUN1989 BWA1999 TUN2006 BFA1973 OMN1999 GHA1974 IRN1991 SDN1978 SLB1985 HND1973 UZB2004 KEN1972 LBN1979 GUY2006 MUS1975 MAR1989 TUN1975 MOZ2002 IND1991 NGA1993 PNG1986 SEN1984 MAR1972 GUY2002 TUN1980 RUS1971 VEN1993 BFA1989 TUR1983 NPL1999 UGA1982 HND1974 PHL1992 SDN2005 BGD2000 GTM2002 GTM1975 PER1972 MAR1975 PAN1999 PHL1972 HND1972 NPL1984 IRN1986 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RUS1985 VEN2000 THA1994 NER1972 ALB1992 NER1974 MDA1998 SDN2001 COL1975 IND2000 LTU1992 TZA1990 BGD1995 TUN1995 ROU1988 RUS1998 ARM1993 NAM1992 COG1993 LTU2003 JAM1986 MDG1973 ARG1997 KEN1995 CUB1977 SYR1977 PRY1996 JAM1998 MNG1991 BDI2005 SOM1991 CPV1975 TUR2001 KAZ1998 CRI1985 COM1977 CHN1971 LBR2005 MRT1997 MWI1979 KHM1973 UGA1980 GNB1996 LBR2002 TUR2002 BEN1980 DOM1991 SLE2004 JAM1980 AFG1971 OMN1978 COL2002 GNB1977 GMB1992 BRA1982 MDG1971 SLV1986 LBY1979 RUS1981 BGD1981 BEN1975 AFG1972 GTM1988 JOR1991 ECU1993 LAO1972 MOZ1981 BEN1972 IRQ1977 MAR1976 THA1991 ALB1973 SLV1981 SYR2002 SYR1978 TJK1993 ARE1999 LBN1999 PAN1992 GIN1994 NIC1986 TTO1978 ROU2005 SLB1987 NPL1990 ALB2000 ARG1994 ZWE1971 GMB2005 BTN2000 GIN1998 TCD1998 GTM1976 DJI1980 BRA1983 ETH1986 PER1995 FJI1977 LAO1992 JAM1981 NGA1996 SEN1996 UGA1972 LKA1997 BDI1972 ZAF1979 URY2006 TUN1988 SEN2000 MUS1976 BDI1974 KHM2005 GIN1999 KEN1976 CMR2005 GEO1995 CHN1973 VEN1990 LVA2005 SWZ1984 KEN1997 CIV1989 UGA2002 CIV1980 CMR1978 GTM2004 AGO1989 KHM2006 COL1974 CIV1972 MAR1997 UGA2006 SAU2003 SLE1976 FJI2003 BGD2001 PNG1990 COL2006 IRQ1978 BOL2001 ERI2002 CHN1972 SUR1999 GNB2000 DOM1985 LSO1998 MYS2004 BGR2003 DOM1983 GMB2006 GIN1993 CRI1986 LKA1995 CAF2005 BGD1994 AZE1997 GIN1984 UGA1989 IRN2006 CPV1980 MDA1994 KHM1989 IND1972 GNB1990 TUN1976 NIC1993 BDI2006 CAF1975 PRY1992 MRT1976 EGY1981 IRN1989 BDI1989 HTI1976 PRY2000 CIV1974 UZB1996 SWZ1999 KEN2004 BEN1974 SLV1984 BGR1982 COL1972 OMN1992 COL1973 PNG2000 LBN1994 TGO2005 IND1975 ARG1980 TUR2000 GHA2004 UGA1975 TJK1994 RWA1994 BLR1993 ETH1985 ERI2005 IRN1978 BRA1985 BRA1991 DJI2006 BTN1996 BHS1990 MYS1993 ECU1984 BLZ1987 IRQ2005 JAM2005 LBR1978 TKM1999 TGO1978 PRY1972 BGR1985 MNG1983 KWT2000 MLI1971 KHM1979 RWA1998 SYR2005 PRY2005 TUN2001 GUY1981 SLB1978 LAO1978 BOL1976 ARG2004 NGA1990 RUS2003 TCD1993 NER2003 CAF1980 LBY2006 MEX2005 CAF1989 MEX1992 RWA2001 BHS1996 AFG1973 JAM1999 SLB1996 PNG1996 EGY1976 JAM1993 MUS2004 IND1989 GMB2002 NIC1981 DZA1979 PER2001 MUS1988 TTO1980 BLZ1997 SLB1990 GIN1986 LBN1993 PAK2001 PNG1978 JAM1982 IRN2005 TZA1992 CIV2006 TCD1999 MEX1978 SWZ1986 DJI1989 CMR1992 LBR2006 MOZ1994 NIC1982 COG1986 TTO2005 MAR2004 CIV1973 AFG1989 CAF1972 BGR1986 CMR1996 LBN1984 BFA2004 SEN1992 IRQ1989 HND1988 HTI1994 PHL2001 MOZ1995 CUB1990 VEN1992 MYS1986 IND1980 MAR1988 COG1985 LBN1998 BWA2005 LBY1971 KHM2003 LSO1999 RUS1991 BGD1988 EGY2004 TGO2002 NGA1992 SEN1978 FJI1972 SLE1994 LAO2000 ALB1971 BOL1998 NGA2005 BFA1981 PAK1995 QAT1983 PRY1980 KHM1974 ARM2004 GMB1980 VEN1978 KAZ2000 TCD1984 IRN1975 DZA1971 URY1992 AFG1980 TTO2002 FJI1989 CAF2006 TUR1989 AGO1979 BFA1994 SYR1989 URY2005 ALB2005 BHS1977 NIC1999 TUN1981 GUY1976 PAK1984 MDA2004 ERI2006 ALB1974 SYR1972 BRN1993 MLI1979 BDI1973 TUN1998 SYR2006 LKA1976 PRY1975 SWZ1985 SEN2005 BEN1973 GHA1994 MYS1999 BOL1994 TUR1971 TJK1995 GMB1989 BOL1988 CUB2000 NAM2002 TJK1998 RWA1981 BTN1990 ECU1986 HTI1981 COM1996 URY1975 GUY1995 KAZ1993 GMB1972 PAK1981 RUS1984 NPL1978 NER1973 URY2002 PHL2004 NAM2006 UGA1974 BHS2000 NPL2005 ETH1983 UGA1973 LSO1993 MEX1975 COL1979 SLB2005 AFG2002 MNG1982 SLV1985 BLZ2001 URY1974 MEX1972 NER1971 OMN2002 KGZ1993 LSO1984 IRN1980 TTO1989 GIN1985 TUR1979 OMN1972 LBY1989 ARM1997 NGA1978 TGO1975 ETH1982 KHM1971 SLE1981 MUS1995 MYS1984 FJI1973 BGR1991 CAF1974 MEX2006 PAK1994 TCD1986 RWA1993 CRI1991 TZA2005 PAN2005 SYR1975 COM1990 MRT1995 OMN1980 IND1971 GNB1978 MEX1973 SYR1980 IND1973 GMB1975 IRQ1980 PHL1995 IRQ2006 LBR1980 TGO1989 TGO2006 AGO2003 NIC1985 GEO1997 THA1983 BHS1992 GNB1992 LVA2006 NPL1992 TZA1978 NER1979 CUB2005 TTO1975 AZE2004 EGY1998 MOZ1999 GHA1981 LBR1989 HTI1998 ECU1985 LSO1986 AFG2006 MUS1994 RUS1983 BGR1983 OMN1975 LAO1980 TUR1996 CMR1975 IRN1974 SLB1992 PER1976 HND1995 GTM1994 ARM1998 MEX1989 BEN2003 SLV1991 BGD1993 LAO1974 ALB2006 BDI1979 RWA1999 BGD1976 MDA1993 LBR1975 LAO1975 COG1991 UZB1992 SEN2006 ETH1991 BRN1986 GNB2005 BDI1971 TGO1980 CUB1978 TGO1972 PHL1976 AZE1999 GUY1993 IND1974 BEN1971 LAO2002 LAO2005 PRY1989 KGZ1994 GEO1999 CRI1982 TJK2004 SLE1998 CUB1992 PNG1992 IRN1973 MAR1994 IRQ1975 MEX2002 GHA1998 GTM1999 SDN1976 BWA1978 CIV1979 CRI1983 URY1972 LBN1986 VEN2005 CIV1971 FJI1971 TCD1985 SEN2002 RWA1984 JAM1991 PRY2002 PAN1978 AZE1998 TTO2006 BHS1978 NPL2006 SEN1972 PAK1976 BDI2003 LVA1992 PNG2005 BFA1999 CAF1973 NIC1983 MAR1995 SYR1974 PAN2002 EGY1994 LKA1994 BEN1979 MOZ1998 HND1981 GMB1974 MDA2001 HND1999 BWA1980 NPL2002 PRY1974 COM2002 MEX1980 RUS1976 PER2004 SLB2006 GNB2006 ARM1994 LBR1972 PRY2006 MAR1993 JAM1983 BHS2005 BRN1999 LBN1985 BTN1978 BFA1998 NGA1975 BRN1984 ARG1979 PRY1973 DJI2003 SLE1999 SLE1984 UGA1979 SEN1980 MYS1985 OMN1974 MOZ1993 TTO1972 UGA1971 SLB2002 ARM1999 MEX1974 COG1983 TUN2004 UGA2003 COM1992 COL2003 URY1980 SWZ1991 SWZ1983 CIV2003 BLZ1996 DJI1979 PHL1994 OMN2006 TGO1974 MRT1994 BFA1993 GNB2002 BWA2002 CMR1980 AFG1979 NGA2002 CMR1972 GEO1998 SWZ1982 BOL1981 CPV1979 UZB2002 PER1981 TZA2006 COL1971 SLB1980 NIC1991 IRQ1972 TZA1972 NPL1989 HTI1993 LKA1998 MUS1998 MRT2004 TZA2002 BWA1975 COG1982 ECU1995 TUN1994 SEN1975 BGD2004 GMB1973 CUB1980 CMR2002 NPL1975 SDN2004 PNG2002 NGA1980 BFA1984 GHA1999 BOL1993 COM2005 GEO2004 SLE1993 TTO1974 GNB1980 HND1976 PAN1989 BOL1999 SEN1989 GEO1994 SLV1982 GIN1982 NGA2006 LVA2002 LKA1981 SYR1973 OMN1989 IRQ1974 BWA2006 VEN1975 BHS1980 NGA1972 SLE1986 LAO2006 IND1979 PNG1975 AFG2003 GUY1984 GUY1994 BLZ2000 BGD1999 NGA1989 TTO1973 TZA1980 ECU1991 CMR1989 NPL1972 TZA1975 URY1989 GIN1991 PER1994 HND1998 PAN1980 OMN2005 HND1993 MYS1991 KEN1994 BTN1992 MAR1998 CMR2006 GIN1983 CAF1971 ECU1983 CAF1979 PAK1998 NPL1980 SLB1989 HTI1984 OMN1973 LAO1973 BLZ1990 BWA1972 KGZ1998 PAN2006 SDN1981 RWA1986 COM1975 TCD1991 PNG1980 GUY1998 TCD1982 PNG1989 LBR1974 SDN1994 EGY1986 LBN1983 TCD1983 TGO1973 BTN2005 GHA1993 VEN2002 URY1973 PAN1975 IRN1971 IND2003 MUS1981 CMR1974 MUS1984 GNB1975 PAK1993 PAK1999 GNB1989 BHS2002 VEN1980 BWA1989 MUS1999 RUS1982 KEN1981 BHS1975 LBR2003 LAO1989 SLV1983 CUB1975 SYR2003 BFA1986 AZE1994 MOZ1984 LKA1999 IRQ1973 MAR1999 MAR1981 LBN1982 EGY1999 IRN2003 GTM1993 GTM1998 EGY1993 GTM1981 TZA1989 PER1998 ROU2003 KEN1993 CAF2003 SEN1974 PNG2006 TUR2005 EGY1984 IRQ2003 UZB2005 BTN1975 LSO1983 HND1984 TUN1993 HTI1999 BGD1998 PER1999 CUB1972 KEN1998 COM1980 GMB2003 HTI1986 GHA1984 PHL1981 NGA1974 MUS1993 ECU1982 MAR1984 SYR1971 LSO1985 HTI1995 VEN1972 LBR1973 BOL1986 GNB1974 LKA1993 LKA1984 VEN2006 LBN1991 IRN1979 GTM1984 MRT1993 GMB1971 VEN1974 TZA1974 GUY1986 TUN1984 MEX1971 TTO1971 TUN1999 NAM2003 BWA1974 SEN1973 CUB2002 KEN1984 PER1993 TTO1979 UZB2000 CUB2006 MRT1999 ERI2003 PAN1972 URY1971 MYS1982 GHA1986 LSO1982 TUR2006 KEN1999 MYS1983 VEN1989 EGY1985 RWA1991 MRT1981 PHL1984 CMR1973 BHS1989 TGO2003 NPL1974 URY2003 TJK1999 RWA1982 PHL1993 SLE1985 BTN2002 BLZ1992 RWA1983 BTN2006 TGO1971 MOZ1986 LSO1991 HND1985 GMB1979 VEN1973 LAO1971 COM2006 SDN1998 MEX2003 RWA1985 GUY1999 NGA1973 PER1984 NPL1973 BHS2006 HTI1985 MRT1984 BRN1985 BFA1985 MEX1979 PRY2003 MRT1998 PRY1971 TLS2003 IRQ1971 SYR1979 TTO2003 BHS1973 TZA1973 TGO1979 PAN1973 PAK1986 PHL1998 PRY1979 BWA1973 UZB2006 BTN1989 ALB2003 LBR1971 SDN1999 LAO1979 BTN1972 OMN1979 PAN1974 CUB1989 PAK1985 GTM1986 SDN1993 NPL1971 URY1979 BHS1974 LAO2003 OMN1971 CUB1974 LKA1986 HND1986 KGZ1999 MUS1986 BGD1986 CUB1973 SDN1984 COM1989 CMR1971 SLB1979 SLB2003 BGD1984 EGY1983 TUN1985 GUY1985 LVA2003 BTN1974 BTN1980 TUN1986 BGD1985 LBR1979 MOZ1985 MRT1986 IRQ1979 GUY1983 HTI1982 BLZ2005 SEN1971 SLE1991 BFA1982 BOL1984 NGA1971 MUS1985 PHL1986 CMR1979 GHA1985 GNB2003 BFA1991 SEN2003 KEN1986 NGA2003 TZA1971 PER1986 CMR2003 SLE1982 BRN1991 EGY1982 BFA1983 PHL1999 PNG2003 EGY1991 NGA1979 SLE1983 BWA2003 GUY1982 HND1982 GTM1985 TUR2003 PNG1979 MAR1986 GNB1979 SEN1979 GUY1991 TZA2003 NPL2003 HTI1983 OMN2003 HND1991 PAK1991 MOZ1982 GHA1991 MOZ1983 NPL1979 KEN1985 BWA1971 BTN1973 SDN1986 BOL1985 LKA1985 GHA1983 VEN1971 PAN2003 VEN1979 GHA1982 TZA1979 HND1983 CUB1971 BLZ2002 BLZ2006 HTI1991 PER1985 BHS1979 PHL1985 PAN1971 TUN1982 MUS1983 MUS1991 BWA1979 MOZ1991 BLZ1989 TUN1983 GTM1982 BTN1971 MAR1985 GTM1991 PAK1983 SDN1985 PAK1982 COM2003 COM1979 PAN1979 LKA1983 TUN1991 LKA1982 BOL1991 VEN2003 CUB1979 BGD1991 BGD1982 MUS1982 MRT1985 BHS2003 MAR1991 CUB2003 GTM1983 MAR1982 BOL1983 KEN1983 BGD1983 LKA1991 PER1983 BOL1982 KEN1991 PER1991 KEN1982 SDN1982 MRT1982 BTN2003 MRT1991 SDN1983 BTN1979 SDN1991 PER1982 MAR1983 UZB2003 PHL1983 PHL1982 PHL199 MRT1 BLZ E (Civil Conflict X) E ( Aid X) (coef = , s.e. = , N = 4,053) Figure A3: Partial correlate plot: Omitting Indonesia (IDN). 13