ExecutiveAction Series

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1 ExecutiveAction Series The US Labor Supply Problem Which States Are Most at Risk? by Gad Levanon and Michael Paterra The demographic trends in the United States are such that unusually slow labor force growth in the next 15 years is almost unavoidable. A key feature of this trend is large variations in the magnitude of the slowdown across geographies. The implications for recruiting, retention rates, compensation growth, and corporate profits will be severe without intervention. For firms located in states with tightening labor markets, as well as for companies that operate business units within those geographies, it is critical to start planning now. Assessing the location and types of jobs that are at a high risk of labor shortages and adjusting recruiting, retention, and compensation strategies could mitigate the damage. HIGHLIGHTS An unprecedented period of slow working-age population growth The US Census Bureau projects near zero growth in the working-age population between now and Higher labor force participation is unlikely to make a big difference Delayed retirements and higher labor force participation rates will likely raise annual labor force growth to more than 0.5 percent in the foreseeable future. Labor demand is expected to grow much faster, on average. Immigration may be key to expanding labor supply Regardless of politics, immigration especially skilled can be a game changer for increasing the labor supply, as it is one significant component of labor force growth that is controllable. But visa reform is uncertain in the current political climate. National trends mask major differences among states Working-age population projections vary widely among US regions. Regions that already are experiencing tight labor markets and also have a large number of baby boomers relative to young people are at highest risk. No. 442 September 2015

2 The US Labor Supply Problem The Macro One of the main predictions central to The Conference Board labor shortages work is the US Census forecast, which currently shows that there will be almost no growth in the US working-age population (defined as persons ages 18 64) in the next 15 years (Chart 1). This is markedly different from other periods in US history. Even just a decade ago, the working-age population was growing by more than 1 percent annually, and in earlier periods it grew around 2 percent per year. Chart 1 Annual growth rate in the working-age population (18-64) and its contributing factors 1.4% Annual percent change FORECAST Total working-age (18 64) population growth 17 versus 64 contribution Net migration contribution Deaths contribution Source: U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board 2 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

3 This slowdown has a major implication for the US labor market: Since we are already at the natural rate of unemployment (Chart 2), a 15-year period with almost no growth in the labor supply is likely to create a significantly tighter labor market and labor shortages across the United States. There are three components that account for most growth seen in the working-age population: 1 Net international migration This is forecasted to be stable, at slightly below a 0.5 percentage point contribution to growth in the working-age population. 2 The number of deaths expected At the moment, deaths detract about 0.3 percentage points from working-age population growth. Over the coming years this negative contribution is likely to shrink, partly because the working-age population is becoming younger, on average (i.e., there are fewer gen-xers than millennials), and partly due to an improvement in health conditions. 3 The gap between the number of 17-year-olds versus the number of 64-year-olds People currently 17 years old are going to join the workingage population next year and people currently 64 years old are likely to exit. The larger the gap between the numbers within these two groups, the larger the growth will be in the working-age population. This third component is the main one responsible for the slowdown in working-age population growth. In the beginning of the twenty-first century, there were many more 17-year-olds than 64-year-olds (Chart 1) in 2000, about 2 million more. This gap shrank significantly by 2011, however, to roughly 720,000 people (as the first baby Chart 2 The unemployment rate reached its natural rate 10% Natural rate of unemployment (CBO) Civilian unemployment rate (16 yr+, SA) Note: The shaded area represents the recession of Sources: Congressional Budget Office and Bureau of Labor Statistics boomers turned 65). The contribution to population growth of this gap is about 0.4 percent now, and it will gradually shrink to almost zero in the next decade, essentially cutting off the faucet of new entrants to the labor force. This may come as a bit of a surprise, given the fact that the millennial generation is larger than the baby boomer generation. While this is true, it is critical to note that almost all of the millennials are already in the working-age population. The proceeding generation, Generation Z, is smaller than millennials. Additionally, since everyone who will be 18 in 2030 is already born and since the death numbers are relatively stable (and unlikely to change dramatically), the only factor that could cause this forecast to be inaccurate is the number of net immigrants to the United States. Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk? 3

4 How Likely Is Increased Participation in the Labor Force to Make a Difference? The future labor supply could be affected by other factors than just the growth rate of working-age population: trends in labor force participation by both the 65+ population and the working-age population. DELAYING RETIREMENT In this section we will try to answer the following questions: Is the labor force participation rate for people 65+ likely to increase in the next 15 years? And, if so, what impact would an increase in participation in the labor market have on the overall size of the labor force? Since the mid-1990s the labor force participation rate of people age 65 and older has been gradually increasing, and it is likely that this trend will continue in the future (Chart 3). In recent years, however, it seems that the labor force participation for people in this group has reached a plateau of close to 19 percent, perhaps due to the improvement in stock market values and home prices in recent years. In any case, if we assume that between now and 2030 the labor force participation rate for those 65+ will increase by five percentage points to 24 percent, what would be the impact on the overall labor force? Chart 3 Labor force participation rate among ages 65+ reached a plateau? 12-month moving average, NSA 20% In 2030, the 65-and-older population is expected to be around 33 million people, five percent of which is 1.67 million. In this scenario the US labor force would be higher by 1.67 million people, which is equal to almost one percent of the total expected labor force in 2030, compared to the scenario where the labor force participation rate of older workers is unchanged. This would add just 0.07 percentage points to the annual growth rate of the civilian labor force over a 15-year period. In other words, if, for example, the labor force would grow by just 0.3 percent per annum between 2015 and 2030; under the proposed scenario of an increase in 65+ participation rate, it would grow by 0.37 percent per year, on average. Why Is Retirement Age Increasing Over Time? 1 In general, people are living longer and reach retirement age healthier due to advances in medicine. As a result, a higher percent are able to work to older ages. The increase in life expectancy also means that retirees need to accumulate more wealth to sustain their standard of living through a longer period of retirement. 2 The shift from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans has reallocated much of the investment risk from employers to employees. Defined contribution plans may be insufficiently funded, encouraging employees to continue working. Defined benefit plans, which were more prevalent in the past, had often included incentives to retire at a younger age. The overall shift to defined contribution plans has provided an additional incentive to delay retirement Changes in Social Security have also had an impact: the minimum age for receiving maximum benefits has risen from 65 to 67, and penalties for collecting benefits while working after full retirement have been lifted, thus providing incentives for older workers to continue working in some capacity into their later years. Note: Shaded areas represent recessions. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

5 According to a 2015 AARP report, 39 percent of workers 65 and older currently work part-time. 1 Thus, their additional contribution to labor force growth would be smaller compared to additional growth from younger cohorts, who have a much higher propensity for full-time work. Consequently, while an increase in the labor force participation of people 65 and older is likely, the fact that they are such a small segment of the labor force and even a smaller part of fulltime employment limits their impact on the overall growth rate of the labor force in the next 15 years. POTENTIAL RISE IN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION FOR THE WORKING-AGE POPULATION A larger impact on future labor force growth could result from increasing the labor force participation rate of the current working-age population. They are broken down into two separate impacts: discouraged workers (i.e., those who want a job but have not been actively looking for one) returning to the labor force and a reverse in the next 15 years of the long-run trend of declining labor force participation for working-age persons. Discouraged workers It would be hard to surpass one million workers returning to the labor force, even with generous assumptions on their ability to rejoin. Again, when taken in the context of a 15-year period, the impact on total labor force growth of those discouraged workers returning to the labor market would be minimal it would likely amount to less than percent, which is less than half of the potential impact if the labor force participation of those 65 and older increased by five percentage points, as discussed in the previous section. Reversing the trend The US working-age population will amount to a little over 200 million in If this large population pool structurally increases its labor force participation rate by even just one to two percentage points, it would amount to two to four million additional people in the labor force by 2030, with the large majority of them working full-time. But how likely is this scenario? Quite unlikely, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In projections of labor force participation of the working-age population through 2022, the BLS predicts a large decline in participation rates of people younger than 25, likely due to increases in school attendance at the secondary and college levels, and a slight decline for those aged 25 to 54, which has been on a declining trend since However, those projections did not take into account a very tight labor market in which the unemployment rate drops well below its natural rate. In such an environment, the labor force participation of 18- to 64-year-olds could rise. History is not very encouraging, however. During the late 1990s the most recent period with a tight US labor market the labor force participation rate for individuals 25 to 54 increased by just half a percentage point. All in all, the potential for faster labor force growth from increased participation rates is quite limited. Taking these factors into account, the BLS forecasts that the labor force will grow by 0.5 percent, on average, between 2012 and 2022, which is higher than the growth rate of the working-age population, but not by much. Calculations from The Conference Board bring similar conclusions. 1 David Baer, Older Workers: More Likely to Work Part Time, Future of Work@50+, Fact Sheet 310, AARP Public Policy Institute, February 2015 ( 2 BLS Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, page mlr/2012/01/art3full.pdf Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk? 5

6 How Could Immigration Reform Make a Difference? Chart 1 estimates the number of net international migrants from 2015 through 2040 ( Total Population Growth ). Chart 4 builds on this, providing two other estimates from the Census that reflect alternative scenarios with more or less net international immigration. It shows how working-age popu lation growth would vary with an average amount of international immigration ( Projecting Working Population Growth ) compared to lower-than-expected immigration or higher-thanexpected immigration. Clearly, an increase in the inflow of net international migrants would have a positive effect on labor force growth in the United States over the next few decades. The Census s higher immigration inflow calls for more than three million additional net new international immigrants to the United States between 2015 and Chart 4 Working-age population growth varies, depending on the level of inflows of international immigrants (net) 1.4% Annual percent change FORECAST Total working-age (18 64) population growth Higher migration Lower migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board 6 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

7 Immigration policy can be a thorny issue politically, but immigrants play an important role in the US labor market. Immigrants fill gaps in certain occupations and industries where there is a shortage of US workers. This is true for high- and low-skilled jobs (such as information technology and medicine in the former, and construction and agriculture in the latter); immigrants compose a notable share of the labor force and will likely continue to do so through Immigration reform has the potential to substantially alter the flow of immigrants into the United States. For example, if the 2013 Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (or something like it) became law, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that, by 2023, the bill would lead to a net increase of 10.4 million permanent residents compared with the number of people projected under current law. 4 On top of that, about 8 million unauthorized residents would gain legal status under the bill. To put this in perspective, the Census Bureau currently projects that 12.6 million net international immigrants will move to the United States between 2014 and If, for example, new immigration reform leads to a labor force increase of 10 million by 2030, compared to a scenario with no reform, it could lead to an average labor force growth rising from 0.5 to 0.8 percent. That would go a long way to closing the supply-demand gap in the US labor market. While there is a lot of uncertainty about the scale and scope of any potential immigration reform in the next decade, it remains a major wild card when it comes to our projections of the future labor force. Increased immigration may help to combat a shrinking labor pool in the United States, but lawmakers must take a more refined and subtle approach to crafting new policy to address shortages of skilled labor in many sectors. The Conference Board, together with the Committee for Economic Development, will be looking at this issue in greater depth in Audrey Singer, Immigrant Workers in the US Labor Force, March 15, 2012, immigrant-workers-singer/0315_immigrant_workers_singer.pdf. 4 S. 744: Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, Congressional Budget Office Cost Estimate, June 18, 2013, gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdf. 5 It should be noted that many of the new immigrants are not at the workingage population, or will not participate in the labor force, and that many of the currently unauthorized residents do work. 6 For more information on evolving labor shortages in specific occupations, see From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers: What Retiring Baby Boomers and the Coming Labor Shortage Mean for Your Company (September 2014). Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk? 7

8 Working-Age Population Projections by State The projections of weak working-age population growth in the next 15 years mask large variations across states. This section makes a modest attempt to project working-age population growth by state, based just on demographic factors. 7 Projections show some states expecting sharp outright declines in their working-age populations. With other things being equal, employers in these states are more likely to suffer from tight labor markets in the coming years. Working-Age Population Projections METHODOLOGY The state projections involve four components: 1 How large the 3 17 age group is compared to the group We are comparing the number of people who will enter the working-age group in the next 15 years with the number of people who will exit that age group. 2 The number of deaths Since detailed projections of deaths by state are unavailable, we use the national rate of -2.5 percent (number of deaths of persons as a percent of the total population) for each state. We assume that the death rate does not vary significantly among states. 3 The number of international immigrants to the state To estimate the number of net international immigrants in the next 15 years (aged 18 64) by state, we multiply the total number of projected international migrants (from the US Census Bureau) by the ratio of the number of net migrants aged 18 to 64 in 2013 divided by the total number of net migrants in We calculate the number of projected migrants by using the average number of net migrants from and Net domestic migration We calculate the number of net domestic migrants in the next 15 years (aged 18 64) by state by multiplying the total number of projected domestic migrants (from the US Census Bureau) by the ratio of the population aged in 2013 divided by the total population in We do not attempt to estimate the full set of potential drivers. For example, we do not take into account how economic and labor market conditions will impact net immigration and migration. 8 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

9 In Figure 1, we show the gap between the 3 17 and age groups as a percentage of the working-age population for each state. Clearly, there is large variation among states. In the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, the older population is larger than the younger population. However, as we move to the Southwest, the opposite is true. There are some outliers, such as Utah, where high fertility rates are causing the younger generation to grow larger than the older generation. The results for Florida should be interpreted cautiously, as the size of the older population is boosted by the inflow of people who are younger than 65 but have already partially or fully retired. Figure 1 The gap between the age groups 3 17 and as a share of the working-age population AK 1.69 HI WA OR CA 2.62 NV 1.71 ID 6.26 UT AZ 3.94 MT WY CO 0.30 NM 1.02 ND SD 0.50 NE 2.22 KS 2.73 TX 7.77 OK 2.40 MN IA MO AR 1.32 LA 0.89 WI IL 0.36 MS 2.53 KY TN AL MI IN 0.86 OH VA NC 0.19 SC GA ME NH VT NY PA FL MA CT RI NJ DE MD WV HIGH GROWTH LOW GROWTH Source: U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk? 9

10 Figure 2 shows projected net international immigration and net domestic migration for each state. Again, the states with the weakest expected growth are located mostly within the Northeast and the Midwest, whereas states in the Southwest are generally expected to grow faster from migration. This map is heavily influenced by the patterns of international immigration; in particular, states that are closer to Mexico tend to have stronger net growth from immigration. Figure 2 Projected net international and domestic migrants ( ) as a share of the working-age population AK HI 7.72 WA OR ID NV CA 8.36 UT 7.65 AZ MT 8.22 WY 3.47 CO NM 1.27 ND SD 0.50 NE 2.34 KS TX OK 5.75 MN 4.12 IA 2.17 MO 2.90 AR 4.30 LA 2.82 WI 1.70 IL MS KY 3.87 TN 8.57 AL 3.69 MI IN 2.81 OH VA 9.04 NC SC GA NY 1.88 PA 2.16 FL ME 3.95 NH 5.76 VT 1.31 MA 5.75 CT 3.26 RI 2.99 NJ 4.71 DE MD 6.80 WV 0.55 HIGH GROWTH LOW GROWTH Source: U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board 10 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

11 Figure 3 combines the results from the first two maps into a forecast of the working-age population by state. While, nationally, working-age population in the next 15 years is expected to grow by about 5.2 percent, this average masks large variation across states, with some states expected to lose almost 10 percent of their working-age population while others are expected to grow by more than 20 percent. In aggregate, the Northeast and Midwest regions, in which 39 percent of the US working-age population currently resides, are expected to experience a 3.0 percent decline in their working-age population in the coming 15 years. As mentioned earlier, this analysis should not be viewed as a full-fledged forecast of working-age population growth by state. These projections are based on the assumption that current immigration and internal migration trends will continue unchanged into the future. It is quite likely that, if labor shortages intensify in the Northeast and the Midwest, we would see increased net migration into those areas, causing the trend to deviate from recent history. Additionally, demand growth will also vary by state, and there is probably a strong correlation between the expected growth rate in working-age population and the growth rate in demand across states. However, this correlation is probably much smaller than 1 meaning, states that are likely to experience large drops in their working-age populations are more likely to suffer from labor shortages. In addition, factors like industry composition and housing market conditions will also impact migration trends, but are not attempted to be estimated in this analysis. Figure 3 Projected working-age population growth between 2015 and 2030 AK HI 2.78 WA 8.01 OR 6.10 ID NV CA 8.47 UT 7.65 AZ MT WY CO NM ND 9.40 SD 4.17 NE 2.07 KS TX OK 5.66 MN 0.65 IA MO AR 3.11 LA 1.21 WI IL MS KY TN 5.04 AL 0.06 MI IN 1.17 OH GA VA 5.15 NC SC 8.56 ME NH VT NY PA FL MA CT RI NJ 0.17 DE 6.94 MD 2.18 WV HIGH GROWTH LOW GROWTH Source: U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk? 11

12 States that are at the highest risk of labor shortage in the coming years are the ones that have both relatively low unemployment rates right now (Figure 4) and those that will experience weak labor force growth in the future (because they have relatively few young people compared to baby boomers). Those states are largely concentrated in the Midwest and New England, but also include other spots such as Montana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Oregon. Conversely, states in the Southwest such as California, Arizona, and Nevada, are experiencing high unemployment rates right now as well as a favorable demographic outlook, making them less likely to suffer from labor shortages in the coming years. Texas is an interesting case it has one of the tightest labor markets in the United States right now, but a high concentration of young people and strong net migration inflows will limit the severity of labor shortages moving forward. Figure 4 State unemployment rate gaps (March May 2015 vs ) AK HI 1.35 WA 0.32 OR CA 1.26 NV 3.03 ID 0.12 UT AZ 1.68 MT 0.15 WY 0.73 CO NM 1.59 ND SD 0.18 NE KS TX OK MN IA MO 0.57 AR 0.49 LA 0.82 WI IL 0.89 MS KY TN 0.66 AL 1.60 MI IN 0.18 OH GA 1.25 VA 1.50 NC 0.55 SC 0.15 NY 0.93 PA 0.58 FL 2.22 ME 0.01 NH 0.33 VT 0.08 MA CT 1.60 RI 1.11 NJ 1.91 DE 0.70 MD 1.34 WV 1.92 LOOSE LABOR MARKET TIGHT LABOR MARKET Source: U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by The Conference Board 12 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

13 Business Implications Considering the substantial variation of the country s demographic trajectory through 2030, it is critical for firms located in states with tightening labor markets, as well as for companies that operate business units in those geographies, to start planning now. As labor markets tighten, it will become more and more difficult to hire workers in the hardest-hit states as the competition over talent intensifies. Nationally, firms are already finding it increasingly difficult to fill open positions and to find qualified talent for job openings. 8 In states like Texas, where the unemployment rate is already below the natural rate, it is likely extremely difficult to find qualified talent. At the same time, more employees are likely to switch jobs as the labor market gets tighter, and compensation growth is also likely to increase faster as the labor market tightens. While navigating the tightening labor market may be daunting, businesses that plan ahead will have an advantage. In states with an aging workforce, delaying retirement among older workers or introducing phased retirement could help ameliorate labor shortages in the near-term. Education and training programs can also help to fill occupational gaps where there are currently concentrations of older workers. Furthermore, these programs may help to entice people not currently in the labor force to rejoin. Americans are relatively mobile, so employers may have to look outside their local labor market to recruit the talent they need. As the labor market tightens, firms may find it advantageous to expand teleworking options to employ talent in other parts of the country or to offer teleworking as a benefit to help retain workers. Moreover, firms that employ a low share of immigrants may want to tap into the skilled immigrant labor pool to make up for domestic shortfalls in talent. The fact of the matter is clear: the US labor supply will grow at a historically low rate over the next 15 years, with varying severity across states. Firms that act proactively, though, and plan accordingly can work to mitigate the impact of the looming labor shortage on their bottom line. 8 For more on the business implications of tightening labor market, please read Faster Than Expected: The US Labor Market Continues to Tighten, The Conference Board, Executive Action Report, July Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk? 13

14 About the Authors Gad Levanon is director of macro economic and labor market research at The Conference Board, where he also leads The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine program. Levanon created The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, a widely used measure that fills the need for a leading index of employment. His research focuses on trends in US and global labor markets, the US economy, and forecasting using economic indicators. Levanon is the principal writer of Labor Markets in Review, a periodical that documents the main trends in labor markets across the globe. He also writes a popular blog on labor markets for Human Capital Exchange. In addition to writing reports for The Conference Board, he has published extensively in academic and professional journals. Before coming to The Conference Board, Levanon worked at the Israeli Central Bank where he participated in the analysis of financial markets and monetary policy. Levanon received his PhD in economics from Princeton University, and he holds both an undergraduate and master s degree from Tel Aviv University in Israel. Michael Paterra was a research assistant in the economics department. He has an undergraduate degree in economics with honors from the University of Delaware and a master s degree in international economics from Fordham University. He has worked on research projects related to labor markets and also worked with the International Labor Comparisons program at The Conference Board. Before joining The Conference Board, he interned with the US Department of State in Naples, Italy; studied emerging markets at the University of Pretoria in South Africa; and recently worked at the Center for an Urban Future in New York. Related Research and Webcasts From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers: What Retiring Baby Boomers and the Coming Labor Shortage Mean for Your Company Faster Than Expected: The US Labor Market Continues to Tighten Prioritizing Productivity to Drive Growth, Competitiveness, and Profitability From a Buyer s Market to a Seller s Market: Declining Unemployment and Evolving Labor Shortages in the United States Trapped on the Worker Treadmill? The Conference Board Labor Markets in Review Will the Decline in Unit Labor Cost in Europe s Troubled Economies Help Improve Competitiveness? Human Capital Watch : Evolving Labor Shortages in the US 14 Executive Action The US Labor Supply Problem: Which States Are Most at Risk?

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