Svetovni pregled. Junij Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih emreport. Stran 1 od 5

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1 Stran 1 od 5 Svetovni pregled Presenetljiv padec donosov ameriških državnih obveznic je pomenil veter v jadra tudi za delnice in obveznice držav na pragu razvitosti Oslabitev konjunkture na večini razvijajočih se trgov se nadaljuje Novi močni pritoki sredstev v delnice in obveznice razvijajočih se trgov ostajajo do nadaljnjega bolj negotovi Maja so delniški trgi držav na pragu razvitosti po daljšem času ponovno odrezali nekoliko bolje kot delniški trgi razvitih držav. Indeks MSCI EM je zabeležil porast v višini skoraj 3 %, pri čemer so se posamezne države odrezale občutno boljše denimo Madžarska, Rusija, Indija ali Turčija. Močno povpraševanje je bilo tudi po obveznicah razvijajočih se trgov (EM), kar je vlagateljem prineslo močno rast vrednosti za okoli 3,1 % (vsakokrat v lokalni valuti). Nadaljnji in za mnoge presenetljiv padec donosov ameriških državnih obveznic je pomenil močno podporo tako za delnice kot za obveznice po vsem svetu. O razlogih za padec donosov se še sicer vedno le ugiba. Močna usmerjenost mnogih udeležencev trga prav na rastoče donose, ki je prisotna že dlje časa, je k slednjemu prav gotovo odločilno prispevala. K temu je treba pripisati še specifične dejavnike v določenih državah, ki so pospešili tečajev. V Indiji je kandidat opozicije, ki so ga favorizirali vlagatelji in gospodarstvo, dosegel na parlamentarnih volitvah udarno, domala neustavljivo zmago. Ruskemu delniškemu trgu pa so nasprotno dobro deli rahli signali umirjanja krize v Ukrajini ter ciljno usmerjen, velik posel na Kitajskem. V Turčiji pa so tečaje pospešila zlasti upanja glede znižanja obresti. Osnovna slika narodnih gospodarstev se je relativno malo spremenila. V naslednjih mesecih bo najverjetneje prevladal scenarij nadaljnje slabitve gospodarstva in občutno nižje dinamike rasti. Po nepričakovano šibkem prvem četrtletju se za ZDA sicer v naslednjih mesecih pričakuje splošna močnejša rast. Četudi se to uresniči, pa bo impulz za razvijajoče se trge najverjetneje povsem nepomemben. Svetovna banka je popravila (ponovno v zadnjih letih) svoje napovedi za gospodarsko rast v državah na pragu razvitosti navzdol in opozorila, da utegne imeti morebitno hujše zaostrovanje krize v Ukrajini jasne negativne posledice za svetovno gospodarstvo. Z izvolitvijo novega predsednika v Ukrajini konec maja so možnosti za umirjanje krize vendarle večje, toda visoke ostajajo tudi morebitne ovire. Z vidika pozicioniranja vlagateljev se zdi, da trenutno vlada določena pat pozicija. Na eni strani ponovno beležimo nekaj zadržanih prilivov delnic (in še močnejših obveznic) držav na pragu razvitosti. Na drugi strani so številni vlagatelji že pred dlje časa pozicionirali svoje naložbe in so jih tudi v času tečajnih izgub oz. ob nezadovoljivem razvoju vrednosti v zadnjih mesecih in letih tudi ohranili. Kapitulacije teh vlagateljev, kot se je lahko spomnimo iz let 1997/98 ali 2008/2009, doslej ni bilo. Dodatnih masivnih vlaganj te skupine vlagateljev trenutno ne gre pričakovati, kratkoročno usmerjeni vlagatelji pa bodo najverjetneje po večini počakali, dokler se v dinamiki rasti držav na pragu razvitosti ne oblikuje jasna sprememba trenda navzgor.

2 Stran 2 od 5 Country focus Is the Chinese economy stabilising? China Growth in China appears to be stabilising. Exports recently showed some growth again, and the HSBC purchasing managers index managed a significant gain, after five straight declines. Nevertheless, the index is still lower than 50 and thus points to mild contraction. Last month, the markets worries about a collapse of the real estate market eased somewhat. The government appears to be taking a slightly softer line again, attempting to ensure a gradual cooling of this market. It remains to be seen whether this will be successful or not. During the month, the Chinese equity markets pushed ahead with a recovery, but then faltered again in the wake of disappointing economic data. Mainland shares (A-shares) only lost a bit on the whole, while the H-shares traded predominantly by non-residents in Hong Kong saw sharper declines and fell by around 3 %. Absolute majority for the BJP in the newly elected Indian parliament triggers a surge on the Indian financial markets Brazil: football bonanza and economic crisis India The parliamentary elections in India resulted in the widely anticipated victory for opposition candidate Modi from the Hindu-nationalist BJP party, who is seen as being pro-business and interested in reforms. The extent of his election win, however, surprised almost all the observers. The BJP clinched an absolute majority of the seats in the lower house, an unusual result in recent Indian history, which has typically been dominated by mottled alliances and more or less stable coalition governments composed of several different parties. Consequently, Modi may have a relatively free hand for undertaking reforms of all kinds, without having to take much consideration of the numerous regional parties. Whether and how he will use this leeway remains to be seen. In any case, the financial markets reacted euphorically, with the equity indices shooting to new record highs and closing the month with a gain of around 8 %. Economically, however, India s situation still does not look as great as one might think based on the financial market s reaction. For the first time in the last 10 years, industrial production probably contracted during the past 2013/2014 fiscal year. Moving forward, it will thus be very important what steps the new government takes and whether or not it can achieve lasting success with them. Brazil Brazil continues to find itself in a very difficult set of conditions, marked by weakening economic activity and high inflation. A recession next year is looking more and more likely. In terms of domestic political conditions, just a few months before the upcoming elections, President Rousseff is under considerable pressure. The World Cup will probably not trigger the burst of popularity that was hoped for; indeed, on the contrary, many groups in Brazilian society see it as what may be the last big chance to articulate their interests and demands. Public investment activity remains too low on the whole, in particular in important areas such as infrastructure and education. The billions spent on new or more modern football stadiums could have certainly be spent or invested more wisely. Because even though the World Cup will undoubtedly provide economic impetus for certain sectors and regions, this momentum will most likely turn out to be unsustainable and inadequate. Consequently, there is an increasing risk that the President may be voted out in October. In recent weeks, this new political outlook has

3 Stran 3 od 5 provided strong momentum on the stock market. The fact that this rally was mostly speculative in nature was demonstrated at the end of the month, when the Bovespa index finally conceded all of the advances from May in the span of just a few hours. Ultimately, the market closed with a small decline of 0.8 % compared to the previous month. Some easing of the Ukraine crisis and a breakthrough with a massive gas contract with China resulted in strong gains for the Russian currency, bonds and stocks Rises for equity and bond markets in Turkey prices surge thanks to a surprising interest rate cut by the central bank Russia Tensions in the Ukraine crisis are now apparently easing somewhat. At the end of May, the Ukrainian presidential election resulted in a clear victory for billionaire Petro Poroshenko. Russia accepted the result and now at least has a well-defined partner in Kiev in the negotiations about unpaid gas bills and future gas prices. On the other hand, the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine are witnessing increasingly bloody fighting and the political division of Ukraine is growing deeper rather than declining. Despite all of this, Russian bonds profited from the mild deescalation of the situation, and the rouble was the strongest currency in the region in May. This comes as a welcome development for the central bank, in light of the high rate of inflation which is currently running at 7.3 % yoy. There were two rate hikes (from 5.5 % to the current level of 7.5 %) in March and April to support the rouble, and these hikes will probably not be reversed even though the central bank would no doubt like to lower rates in light of the sluggish economy. Russia recently concluded a contract with China worth some USD 400 bn for gas deliveries running until 2020 and construction of the necessary pipelines; this may pave the way for Russia to orient itself more strongly to Asia. The contract was concluded after 10-years of negotiations and covers a period of 30 years. It will likely strengthen Russia s position vis-à-vis the West, especially since Russia also wants to cooperate much more closely in military issues and this may be followed up by more contracts on economic cooperation. Another significant aspect is that the countries decided not to use USD as the settlement currency. Russia has clearly signalled that this may be a model for future contracts with other countries, such as Iran or Japan. Following China, Russia is also thus taking the first important steps towards ending the previously undisputed domination of petro-dollars in the global economy. The stock market reacted to all these developments with a strong rebound. The MICEX gained around 10 % in May and is now well higher than the level from early March when Russia s military intervened on the Crimean peninsula. While some valuations are very attractive from a long-term perspective, a thorough recovery for the stock market can probably only be expected if the conflict between Russia and the West and is resolved and/or there is a strong pick-up in economic activity. Turkey Turkish bonds continued their good performance of recent months and posted gains again in May. The massive rate hikes by the Turkish central bank at the start of year successfully stabilised the lira and resulted in strong appreciation in recent months. Another important point was the positive development of the current account balance in Q1 2014, as the deficit compared to Q shrank by almost one half. On the other hand, the sharp decline in lending and the significant increase in lending rates since the beginning of the year will hamper economic growth, which has been showing signs of slowing down anyway. The central bank took these developments as arguments to reverse part of the rate hikes from the start of the year

4 Stran 4 od 5 and lowered the key policy rate by 0.5 % to the current level of 9.5 % (although the rate corridor was not changed). This move came despite the still very high rate of inflation, which is running at +9.7 % yoy and was thus a bit of a surprise. Both the bond market and the stock market surged higher on hopes that the central bank may push forward with further rate reductions. Turkish LCY bonds were able to overcome the negative tendencies from the beginning of the year and are now roughly at the levels from November of the previous year, when political tensions related to charges of corruption against the government started. The Turkish stock market advanced about 7 %, building on its gains from the previous months. In Poland, most of the economic signals were positive again Poland In Poland, most of the economic signals were positive again last month. Quite robust demand from external markets suggests that there will be sustained growth in industrial production. Retail sales are also growing and increases in real wages are supportive as well. The purchasing managers index points to more positive developments in the months ahead. At the same time, dynamics are fading somewhat, probably due to the simmering crisis in Ukraine. Inflation remains very low (+0.3 % yoy). As anticipated, the central bank left interest rates steady in early May and the situation will probably remain unchanged in the months ahead. Polish bonds were stronger again in May and the zloty appreciated during this positive phase for the markets. The stock market hardly showed any change in May, ending the period with a mild loss of 0.4 %. Czech economy continues to recover Czech Republic The latest economic data continue to indicate a recovery in the Czech economy, thanks in particular to stronger foreign trade. Industrial production is picking up vigorously, and overall domestic economic activity is improving. Support is also beginning to come from retail sales now. The Czech koruna remained broadly unchanged in May, whereas Czech bond yields followed the underlying trend in German Bunds and strengthened. In order to counter the possible threat of deflation, the Czech central bank confirmed its intention to weaken the koruna versus the euro until next year at least, if the exchange rate falls below EUR/CZK 27. The stock market in Prague closed May with a small gain of around 1.7 % mom. Hungarian GDP growth surprises on the upside further rate cuts by the central bank Hungary Domestic demand in Hungary is now beginning to show signs reviving after years of weakness. There is also more and more support from foreign trade, as is the case in the other CEE countries too. GDP expanded at a rate of +3.5 % yoy in Q1 2014, beating analysts expectations. The latest rate of inflation came in slightly negative, at -0.1 % yoy, surprising both market participants and the central bank. At the end of May, the central bank cut the key rate by another 0.1 %, bringing it to 2.4 %. Early in the year, Hungarian bonds and the forint were still very weak in regional terms, but were then able to recover in recent months. In light of the historically low level of interest rates in Hungary, however, many market participants remain cautious. The Hungarian stock market posted a strong gain of more than 10 % in May, with almost all of this stemming from the performance of the bank OTP, which is weighted very strongly in the index.

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