Svetovni pregled. Julij Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih emreport. Stran 1 od 5

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1 Stran 1 od 5 Svetovni pregled Delnice in obveznice držav na pragu razvitosti še naprej v porastu Rast dobička podjetij razvijajočih se trgov utegne še naprej ostati šibka Nacionalne banke razvijajočih se trgov ponovno v večji meri posegle po zniževanju obresti Junija se je na delniških trgih držav na pragu razvitosti nadaljeval nekoliko močnejši razvoj vrednosti v primerjavi z razvitimi trgi. Indeks MSCI EM je zabeležil porast za skoraj 3 %, pri čemer so se nekatere države, kot denimo Brazilija in Indija, odrezale še bolje. Povpraševanje je ponovno veljalo tudi obveznicam razvijajočih se trgov in med tem jih že lahko uvrščamo k najmočnejšim razredom vrednostnih papirjev trenutnega leta. Toda slednje še ne pomeni splošnega preobrata v smeri trajnega nadpovprečnega razvoja vrednosti delnic razvijajočih se trgov. Temu v prid ne govorijo niti kazalniki posameznih narodnih gospodarstev niti monetarni kazalniki, pa tudi ne uveljavljanje in kapitalski tokovi mednarodnih vlagateljev. Z vidika ocen lahko delnice razvijajočih se trgov absolutno pa tudi relativno v primerjavi z razvitimi trgi ocenimo nevtralno (po pošteni oceni). S tem ostaja rast dobička podjetij razvijajočih se trgov trenutno odločilni dejavnik. Zato utegne trend še naprej kazati v smeri negativnega razvoja. Po drugi strani dajejo tako delnicam kot obveznicam držav na pragu razvitosti podporo nizki donosi državnih obveznic osrednjih evrskih držav in ameriških vrednostnih papirjev, pa tudi še vedno trajajoča močno ekspanzivna denarna politika centralnih bank. Potem ko ameriška centralna banka še naprej v skladu z načrti znižuje svoje nakupe obveznic, je ECB tako rekoč prevzela štafetno palico in zdaj okrepljeno odpira monetarne zapornice. Japonska centralna banka pa na svoji strani še nekoliko čaka. Toda morala bo z lepa ali z grda v teku leta, najkasneje pa leta 2015, prav tako sprožiti nov program z ohlapnejšimi ukrepi, kajti gospodarska politika vlade doslej še ni pokazala prvotno želenih uspehov. Globalno se je gospodarska slika relativno malo spremenila. V naslednjih mesecih bo najverjetneje prevladal scenarij nadaljnje slabitve gospodarstva v večini držav na pragu razvitosti in občutno nižje dinamike rasti. V mnogih državah na pragu razvitosti utegnejo centralne banke v prihodnje v večji meri omiliti ukrepe svojih denarnih politik, potem ko so jih morale zaradi zaščite valut konec 2013 in v začetku 2014 upoštevati bolj kot načrtovano.

2 Stran 2 od 5 Country focus Has economic activity bottomed out? China Growth in China now seems to have bottomed out, which obviously does not mean that we will see a return to the double-digit annual growth rates of the boom years in That said, industrial output recorded its strongest growth so far this year in June. GDP grew by 7.5% p.a. from April to June and the government endeavoured to protect the economy from an overly sharp downturn by means of small and targeted stimulus measures. However, the markets are still very concerned about a wave of bankruptcies and insolvencies especially on the real estate market. In this respect the government has recently eased its approach somewhat too and has permitted more lending again, with a view to countering a possible slump in real estate prices. There was little movement on the whole in the Chinese equity markets in June; the indices for mainland shares (A-shares) as well as the H-shares traded in Hong Kong rose by between half and one percent. Indian equity market still breaking records Reform measures and new government s budget eagerly awaited India Following the landslide victory of the opposition candidate in the Indian parliamentary elections in May, who is seen as being pro-business and interested in reforms, the focus in June shifted to possible reform measures and future budget decisions. Further price liberalisation and subsidy cuts with combustibles and fuels are on the cards, as well as more growth stimulus in general. There was mixed news regarding inflation. On the one hand consumer prices rose somewhat more slowly than in the previous months. On the other hand, the sharp increase in the oil price exerted more pressure on the currency again, while the monsoon rains that are so important for India have so far not been nearly as plentiful as normal. If they persist, both trends could generate more inflationary pressure. Regardless, the stock markets certainly continued their price rally of recent months in June, climbing to new all-time highs with a gain of around 5%. Brazil s economic activity remains weak inflation still too high Brazil Brazil continues to find itself in a very difficult set of conditions marked by weakening economic activity and high inflation (currently about 6.5% p.a. compared to central bank target of 4.5%). The government is trying to navigate against this with tax cuts, higher social spending and infrastructure investment. There are doubts as to whether they will succeed, even if the economy clearly did not weaken as much in May as the analysts had expected. There is no doubt that retail sales in particular surprising on the upside, with industrial output (first and foremost the manufacturing of capital goods) remaining weak, is a negative factor. Nonetheless, weak consumption has not been the main issue in Brazil to date, quite the contrary in fact. The concomitant debt of many consumers and businesses and the related inflationary pressure are more likely to get worse rather than improve as demand is bolstered again which is the main target of most of the government s measures. It remains to be seen just how much the disastrous performance of the Brazilian national football team will affect the political mood in the country after fierce criticism was often voiced in the run-up to the World Cup regarding the

3 Stran 3 od 5 billions spent on building new stadiums. However, the mood on the equity market was still upbeat in June, as demonstrated by the almost 4% growth in the Bovespa share index. Russia s stock markets more stable in June, in spite of ongoing Ukraine crisis but escalation risk remains high Russia There are few signs of any improvement with regard to the situation in and around Ukraine. Any hopes of a peaceful resolution to the military conflict in eastern Ukraine after the election of the new Ukrainian President were soon dashed. On the contrary, Kiev is concentrating more than ever on a military solution. The only outcome of the crisis so far is the rising number of victims on both sides and the stronger tone being used again in dialogue between Kiev and Moscow. Meanwhile, the USA and the EU are broadening the scope of sanctions against Russia once more, but so far these have largely been selective measures with fairly limited effectiveness. Russian bonds were somewhat weaker in June, mainly because of modest increases in yields. The two rate hikes (from 5.5% to the current level of 7.5%) in March and April to bolster support for the rouble, will probably not be reversed because of the high inflation (+7.8%) and the still tense situation between Russia and the West, even though the central bank would no doubt like to lower rates in light of the sluggish economy. The equity market grew again in June, benefiting amongst other things from the higher price of oil (as the result of developments in Iraq) and increased prices for telecom shares. While some valuations are very attractive from a long-term perspective, a thorough recovery for the stock market can probably only be expected if the conflict between Russia and the West and is resolved and/or there is a strong pick-up in economic activity. Dramatic developments in Iraq weigh down on Turkish financial markets central bank gradually reversing rate hikes made in early 2014 Turkey Turkish bonds corrected a little in June after a strong price performance in recent months. Problems in neighbouring Iraq have exerted a negative influence not just directly on trade relations, but also indirectly by means of upward pressure on the oil price. The likelihood of Iraq splitting up into several smaller states has risen significantly because of the rapid progress made by ISIS extremists, and this could also create an independent territory for the Kurds which until recently was an almost unthinkable scenario for the government in Ankara. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Erdogan, in office since 2003, has thrown his hat into the ring as the presidential candidate for the ruling AKP party, as expected. Despite all the foreign and domestic policy scandals and corruption affairs, his election would appear to be a safe bet from today s perspective. One can assume following his election that the presidential powers will be broadened, thereby enabling Erdogan, as President, to have a strong influence on political decision-making again. There is some doubt as to whether these developments will be positive for Turkey as a democracy given Erdogan s actions in recent months and years; having said that, his presidency is likely to have a benign effect at least in the short term on economic and political stability in Turkey. In June the central banks reversed another part of its interest rate hike cycle from the start of the year, lowering its key rate by a further 0.75% to 8.75% (the rate corridor was not changed). This move came despite the still very high rate of inflation, which is running at +9.2% yoy, and was thus a surprise for many. Further rate cuts seem likely in the second half of the year, but the timing will depend on the falling rate of inflation, which should already have

4 Stran 4 od 5 peaked for the year. The Turkish stock market advanced about 7%, building on its strong gains from the previous months. Polish economy still growing, but tempo falling Poland In Poland we have seen some weaker trends compared to the very robust economic activity observed in the first half-year, which can mainly be attributed to the moderate decline in external demand. Even retail cannot quite keep up with the high growth rates of recent months, despite support from the upwards trend in real wages. The Purchasing Managers' Index suggests developments will continue to be encouraging over the coming months, albeit marked by a slowing pace of growth. The ongoing tension in Ukraine will possibly have an adverse effect here, while inflation also remains very low (+0.2% yoy). As expected the central bank left its key rate unchanged at the start of July again, but an increasing number of analysts anticipate lower rates in the coming months following the surprisingly low inflation rates. There was barely any change registered for Polish bonds in June, while the złoty dropped slightly. The equity market contracted somewhat in June, losing around 1%. Recovery in Czech economy continues Czech Republic The latest economic figures in the Czech Republic also point towards growth in the economy, albeit at a somewhat gentler pace. Both export orders and industrial output were unable to sustain the relatively high growth rates of the last few months. The Czech korona has been trending sideward for months now. Czech bond yields followed the underlying trend in German Bunds and strengthened a little. The inflation rate dropped practically to zero, which means it remains significantly below the central bank s target rate. To counter any potential deflationary scenario the Czech central bank confirmed its intention to keep the koruna weak versus the euro at least until next year, if the exchange rate falls below EUR/CZK 27. The stock market in Prague closed June with a small loss of around 1.8% mom. Deflation reaches Hungary another rate cut by the central bank Hungary Domestic demand in Hungary is now beginning to show signs of reviving after years of weakness. As in many other countries of Central Europe, support comes from foreign trade, but growth here is already flagging again. The latest rate of inflation came in slightly negative, at - 0.1% yoy, surprising both market participants and the central bank. At the end of June, the central bank cut the key rate by another 0.1%, bringing it to 2.3%. The most important topic just now is the ongoing strain on the country s banking system exerted by the forced conversion of foreign currency loans that is planned. The uncertainty regarding the exact form and timing of the conversion is hindering the forint; it was the weakest currency in the region in June and produced a negative performance for Hungarian bonds. The Hungarian stock market noticeably contracted and was the weakest of the CEE stock markets in June. However, the minus of approximately 3.5% is quite moderate in comparison to the roughly 10% increase in the previous month.

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