ASEAN and One-Belt One Road Strategy: Implications for Regional Economic Integration* Dr Tan Khee Giap Co-Director, Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) Associate Professor of Public Policy Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University of Singapore & Chairman, Singapore National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation In 2016 ACI was ranked 13 th globally, 2 nd in Asia and 1 st in Singapore amongst 90 think-tanks world-wide under the Best University Affiliated Think-Tank category by Think-Tanks & Civil Societies Program at The University of Pennsylvania, USA *Prepared for presentation at the Forum on Post-2015 ASEAN Economic Integration organized by Chung-Hwa Institution for Economic Research, Taipei, Taiwan, 12 July 2016 1
ACI s Publications on ASEAN-10 3
ACI Publication on Competitiveness of Greater China 3
Some Research Publications of ACI on Masterplan for Strategic Economic Development of India, Development Policies, Provincial and Regional Competitiveness of India 4
ACI s Research on Indonesia 5
Presentation Outlines Competitiveness Ranking and Simulation Studies on ASEAN-10, 2000-2015. ASEAN Economic Community by 2016: Convergence or Divergence? Why Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and may be the Philippines? East Asia Economic Development Model: Overcoming Three Bottlenecks vis-a-vis the World Bank, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and Asian Development Bank The One Belt-One Road (B & R) Initiative and the South China Seas: ASEAN never had so much attention! Facilitating ASEAN Industrialization and Integration: Discerning Strategies with Balanced Perspectives. Asia Economic Connectivity Vision 2030 6
Ranking of GDP Per Capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) amongst 187 world economies, 2014 Economy Total (in US$) Rank Economy Total (in US$) Rank Qatar 137,162 (1 st ) Saudi Arabia 52,311 (12 th ) Luxembourg 97,639 (2 nd ) Ireland 51,284 (13 th ) Singapore 83,066 (3 rd ) Bahrain 49,020 (14 th ) Brunei Darussalam 79,890 (4 th ) Netherlands 47,960 (15 th ) Kuwait 70,686 (5 th ) Austria 46,640 (16 th ) Norway 67,166 (6 th ) Australia 46,550 (17 th ) United Arab Emirates 66,347 (7 th ) Sweden 46,219 (18 th ) San Marino 60,887 (8 th ) Germany 46,216 (19 th ) Switzerland 58,149 (9 th ) Taiwan 46,036 (20 th ) Hong Kong 55,097 (10 th ) Canada 44,967 (21 st ) United States 54,370 (11 th ) Denmark 44,625 (22 nd ) *Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
Ranking of GDP Per Capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) amongst 187 world economies, 2014 Economy Total (in US$) Rank Economy Total (in US$) Rank Iceland 44,029 (23 rd ) Thailand 15,579 (77 th ) Oman 43,847 (24 th ) China 13,224 (89 th ) Belgium 43,139 (25 th ) Indonesia 10,651 (103 rd ) Finland 40,661 (26 th ) Philippines 6,974 (119 th ) France 40,538 (27 th ) India 5,808 (125 th ) United Kingdom 39,826 (28 th ) Vietnam 5,656 (126 th ) Japan 37,519 (29 th ) Laos 5,006 (130 th ) Equatorial Guinea 36,785 (30 th ) Myanmar 4,752 (134 th ) Korea 35,379 (31 st ) Pakistan 4,749 (135 th ) New Zealand 35,305 (32 nd ) Bangladesh 3,391 (142 nd ) Malaysia 25,145 (48 th ) Cambodia 3,276 (145 th ) *Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
Percent ASEAN s Real GDP and GDP per Capita Growth Rates, 1990-2014 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0 GDP growth rates GDP per capita growth rates Note: The annual growth rates of GDP and GDP per capita are derived on the basis of constant price series. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
ASEAN s Diversity in Size, Level of Development and Economic Openness, 2013 Country Land area (thousand square kilometres) Population (million) GDP (constant 2000 US$, billion) Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and ASEAN Statistics GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) Trade (% of GDP) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Net Inflows (% of GDP) Brunei 5.3 0.4 9.7 23,245.5 90.8 4.8 Cambodia 176.5 15.1 9.3 615.7 100.0 8.7 Indonesia 1,811.6 249.9 291.1 1,165.1 45.0 2.6 Laos 230.8 6.8 4.1 610.2 48.8 3.8 Malaysia 328.6 29.7 205.9 6,928.3 144.4 3.5 Myanmar 653.1 53.3 10.0 187.7 28.2 3.8 Philippines 298.2 98.4 159.4 1,619.9 49.8 1.4 Singapore 0.7 5.4 266.3 49,314.1 298.3 21.4 Thailand 510.9 67.0 268.4 4,005.3 132.7 3.8 Vietnam 310.1 89.7 47.9 534.3 161.9 5.2
Methodology ACI Competitiveness Framework 4 environments & 12 sub-environments 121 indicators 6
Overall Competitiveness Score Overall Competitiveness Ranking of ASEAN-10, 2000-2013 and Focusing on Malaysia 2.5 2.0 Singapore (1st) 1.5 1.0 0.97 0.93 1.05 1.06 1.09 1.07 1.09 1.08 0.97 0.87 0.97 1.07 1.08 1.01 Malaysia (2nd) 0.5 Thailand (3rd) Brunei (4th) 0.0 Indonesia (5th) Philippines (6th) -0.5 Vietnam (7th) -1.0 Cambodia (8th) Laos (9th) -1.5 Myanmar (10th) -2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Asia Competitiveness institute 12
Overall Competitiveness Score Overall Competitiveness Ranking of ASEAN-10, 2000-2013 and Focusing on Indonesia 2.5 2.0 Singapore (1st) 1.5 1.0 Malaysia (2nd) 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-0.126-0.159-0.193-0.126-0.090-0.197-0.061 0.008 0.055 0.084 0.115 0.046-0.014-0.014 Thailand (3rd) Brunei (4th) Indonesia (5th) Philippines (6th) Vietnam (7th) Cambodia (8th) Laos (9th) -1.5 Myanmar (10th) -2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Asia Competitiveness institute 13
Overall Competitiveness Score Overall Competitiveness Ranking of ASEAN-10, 2000-2013 and Focusing on Vietnam 2.50 2.00 Singapore (1st) 1.50 1.00 Malaysia (2nd) 0.50 Thailand (3rd) Brunei (4th) 0.00 Indonesia (5th) -0.50-1.00-0.36-0.34-0.28-0.25-0.33-0.31-0.33-0.28-0.29-0.19-0.20 Philippines (6th) Vietnam (7th) -0.41-0.42-0.38 Cambodia (8th) Laos (9th) -1.50 Myanmar (10th) -2.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Asia Competitiveness Institute Note: Value in the parenthesis denotes 2015 competitiveness ranking amongst ASEAN-10. 14
2015 Overall Competitiveness Ranking OVERALL Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore 2.1141 Malaysia 0.9680 Thailand 0.5623 Brunei 0.3798 Philippines -0.1224 2001 Singapore 2.0723 Malaysia 0.9289 Thailand 0.6469 Brunei 0.4071 Philippines -0.1039 2002 Singapore 1.9301 Malaysia 1.0545 Thailand 0.8011 Brunei 0.3711 Philippines -0.1766 2003 Singapore 1.9638 Malaysia 1.0595 Thailand 0.7471 Brunei 0.3819 Indonesia -0.1258 2004 Singapore 1.9299 Malaysia 1.0859 Thailand 0.7300 Brunei 0.4120 Indonesia -0.0896 2005 Singapore 1.9799 Malaysia 1.0708 Thailand 0.7229 Brunei 0.3642 Indonesia -0.1969 2006 Singapore 1.9484 Malaysia 1.0945 Thailand 0.6819 Brunei 0.3722 Indonesia -0.0605 2007 Singapore 2.0127 Malaysia 1.0779 Thailand 0.5711 Brunei 0.3179 Indonesia 0.0082 2008 Singapore 2.0879 Malaysia 0.9690 Thailand 0.5432 Brunei 0.3462 Indonesia 0.0555 2009 Singapore 2.1505 Malaysia 0.8700 Thailand 0.5297 Brunei 0.3391 Indonesia 0.0844 2010 Singapore 2.0535 Malaysia 0.9653 Thailand 0.5435 Brunei 0.3973 Indonesia 0.1152 2011 Singapore 2.0633 Malaysia 1.0700 Thailand 0.5208 Brunei 0.3764 Indonesia 0.0456 2012 Singapore 2.0279 Malaysia 1.0799 Thailand 0.5306 Brunei 0.3746 Indonesia -0.0142 2013 Singapore 2.0793 Malaysia 1.0099 Thailand 0.5286 Brunei 0.3770 Indonesia -0.0138 OVERALL Rank 6 7 8 9 10 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Indonesia -0.1264 Vietnam -0.3583 Cambodia -0.9156 Laos -1.1951 Myanmar -1.3065 2001 Indonesia -0.1592 Vietnam -0.3390 Cambodia -0.9186 Laos -1.1063 Myanmar -1.4282 2002 Indonesia -0.1931 Vietnam -0.2820 Cambodia -0.9333 Laos -1.1159 Myanmar -1.4557 2003 Vietnam -0.2479 Philippines -0.2799 Cambodia -0.9741 Laos -1.1493 Myanmar -1.3753 2004 Philippines -0.2546 Vietnam -0.3296 Cambodia -0.9395 Laos -1.0568 Myanmar -1.4876 2005 Philippines -0.2085 Vietnam -0.3074 Cambodia -0.9324 Laos -0.9954 Myanmar -1.4972 2006 Philippines -0.2370 Vietnam -0.3292 Cambodia -0.9278 Laos -1.0055 Myanmar -1.5370 2007 Philippines -0.2369 Vietnam -0.2838 Cambodia -0.9357 Laos -0.9975 Myanmar -1.5339 2008 Philippines -0.2850 Vietnam -0.2901 Cambodia -0.9364 Laos -0.9796 Myanmar -1.5106 2009 Vietnam -0.1939 Philippines -0.4302 Laos -0.8705 Cambodia -0.9547 Myanmar -1.5243 2010 Vietnam -0.2024 Philippines -0.4313 Cambodia -0.9551 Laos -0.9636 Myanmar -1.5223 2011 Philippines -0.3797 Vietnam -0.4106 Cambodia -0.8641 Laos -0.9015 Myanmar -1.5201 2012 Philippines -0.2979 Vietnam -0.4176 Cambodia -0.7054 Laos -0.9603 Myanmar -1.6175 10 2013 Philippines -0.3258 Vietnam -0.3835 Cambodia -0.7739 Laos -0.8861 Myanmar -1.6116
2015 Macroeconomic Stability Ranking MACROECONOMIC STABILITY RANKING Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore 2.1392 Malaysia 0.8781 Thailand 0.6753 Indonesia 0.3183 Brunei -0.1827 2001 Singapore 2.0382 Malaysia 0.8462 Thailand 0.7007 Indonesia 0.2620 Brunei 0.0469 2002 Singapore 1.9540 Malaysia 0.8797 Thailand 0.7457 Indonesia 0.3596 Brunei 0.0108 2003 Singapore 2.1089 Malaysia 0.8397 Thailand 0.6821 Indonesia 0.4915 Brunei -0.1102 2004 Singapore 2.1186 Malaysia 0.8369 Thailand 0.7764 Indonesia 0.3865 Brunei -0.1547 2005 Singapore 2.1180 Malaysia 0.8674 Thailand 0.7507 Indonesia 0.3222 Brunei -0.1041 2006 Singapore 2.0724 Malaysia 0.8401 Thailand 0.7496 Indonesia 0.4479 Brunei -0.1019 2007 Singapore 2.0662 Malaysia 0.8925 Thailand 0.7401 Indonesia 0.4877 Philippines -0.2098 2008 Singapore 2.0721 Malaysia 0.7847 Thailand 0.7444 Indonesia 0.6583 Brunei -0.1767 2009 Singapore 2.1795 Thailand 0.7072 Indonesia 0.6619 Malaysia 0.6423 Brunei -0.1404 2010 Singapore 2.1882 Malaysia 0.6956 Indonesia 0.5945 Thailand 0.5899 Brunei 0.0303 2011 Singapore 2.2247 Malaysia 0.7504 Indonesia 0.6225 Thailand 0.4619 Brunei 0.0307 2012 Singapore 2.1370 Malaysia 0.7278 Thailand 0.6330 Indonesia 0.5317 Brunei 0.0133 2013 Singapore 2.2126 Thailand 0.7336 Malaysia 0.6385 Indonesia 0.3844 Brunei 0.0033 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY RANKING Rank 6 7 8 9 10 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Philippines -0.2475 Vietnam -0.3660 Cambodia -0.5421 Myanmar -1.3081 Laos -1.3645 2001 Vietnam -0.2294 Philippines -0.3218 Cambodia -0.5403 Laos -1.0914 Myanmar -1.7113 2002 Philippines -0.2328 Vietnam -0.2552 Cambodia -0.6423 Laos -1.0812 Myanmar -1.7382 2003 Vietnam -0.3347 Philippines -0.3672 Cambodia -0.7220 Laos -1.2190 Myanmar -1.3691 2004 Philippines -0.3340 Vietnam -0.4869 Cambodia -0.6050 Laos -1.0448 Myanmar -1.4929 2005 Philippines -0.3965 Vietnam -0.4519 Cambodia -0.6138 Laos -0.8994 Myanmar -1.5927 2006 Philippines -0.3111 Vietnam -0.4971 Cambodia -0.7165 Laos -0.8641 Myanmar -1.6194 2007 Brunei -0.2782 Vietnam -0.4819 Cambodia -0.8028 Laos -0.8626 Myanmar -1.5512 2008 Philippines -0.3764 Vietnam -0.4994 Cambodia -0.8080 Laos -0.9253 Myanmar -1.4737 2009 Vietnam -0.3987 Philippines -0.6122 Laos -0.7676 Cambodia -0.8402 Myanmar -1.4318 2010 Vietnam -0.4229 Philippines -0.4696 Cambodia -0.8001 Laos -0.9886 Myanmar -1.4173 2011 Philippines -0.4257 Vietnam -0.6003 Cambodia -0.7583 Laos -0.9179 Myanmar -1.3880 2012 Philippines -0.3218 Vietnam -0.5409 Cambodia -0.7029 Laos -0.8773 Myanmar -1.6000 10 2013 Vietnam -0.3074 Philippines -0.5552 Cambodia -0.6976 Laos -0.8807 Myanmar -1.5315
2015 Government and Institutional Setting Ranking GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore 2.2679 Malaysia 0.7806 Thailand 0.5763 Brunei 0.4504 Philippines -0.0755 2001 Singapore 2.2594 Malaysia 0.7816 Thailand 0.5879 Brunei 0.3864 Philippines -0.0424 2002 Singapore 2.1383 Malaysia 0.9486 Thailand 0.7376 Brunei 0.2594 Philippines -0.1423 2003 Singapore 2.1132 Malaysia 0.9141 Thailand 0.8732 Brunei 0.2459 Vietnam -0.1648 2004 Singapore 2.0510 Malaysia 1.0261 Thailand 0.7439 Brunei 0.4190 Philippines -0.2626 2005 Singapore 2.0372 Malaysia 1.0836 Thailand 0.7287 Brunei 0.4025 Philippines -0.1927 2006 Singapore 2.1110 Malaysia 0.9706 Thailand 0.6668 Brunei 0.4264 Philippines -0.2507 2007 Singapore 2.1883 Malaysia 0.9676 Thailand 0.5605 Brunei 0.4297 Philippines -0.2289 2008 Singapore 2.3522 Malaysia 0.7753 Thailand 0.4806 Brunei 0.4449 Vietnam -0.2897 2009 Singapore 2.4590 Malaysia 0.5640 Thailand 0.4661 Brunei 0.3983 Indonesia -0.2145 2010 Singapore 2.3072 Malaysia 0.7557 Brunei 0.5219 Thailand 0.4327 Indonesia -0.1416 2011 Singapore 2.2321 Malaysia 0.9598 Brunei 0.5532 Thailand 0.4124 Indonesia -0.3237 2012 Singapore 2.2724 Malaysia 0.9448 Brunei 0.4848 Thailand 0.2765 Philippines -0.1949 2013 Singapore 2.2585 Malaysia 0.9212 Brunei 0.5123 Thailand 0.3455 Philippines -0.1649 GOVERNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING Rank 6 7 8 9 10 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Vietnam -0.3383 Indonesia -0.5650 Cambodia -0.8076 Myanmar -1.1236 Laos -1.1653 2001 Vietnam -0.2841 Indonesia -0.5145 Cambodia -0.8571 Laos -1.0518 Myanmar -1.2654 2002 Vietnam -0.2113 Indonesia -0.4756 Cambodia -0.8817 Laos -1.0591 Myanmar -1.3138 2003 Philippines -0.3161 Indonesia -0.3775 Cambodia -1.0703 Myanmar -1.0798 Laos -1.1378 2004 Vietnam -0.2703 Indonesia -0.4397 Laos -0.9140 Cambodia -0.9872 Myanmar -1.3661 2005 Vietnam -0.2918 Indonesia -0.5425 Cambodia -0.9415 Laos -0.9513 Myanmar -1.3321 2006 Indonesia -0.2609 Vietnam -0.3942 Laos -0.9336 Cambodia -0.9555 Myanmar -1.3799 2007 Indonesia -0.3596 Vietnam -0.3897 Cambodia -0.9232 Laos -0.9340 Myanmar -1.3108 2008 Philippines -0.3257 Indonesia -0.4272 Laos -0.8608 Cambodia -0.9922 Myanmar -1.1573 2009 Vietnam -0.2762 Philippines -0.4842 Laos -0.7991 Cambodia -0.9332 Myanmar -1.1803 2010 Vietnam -0.3172 Philippines -0.4060 Laos -0.9527 Cambodia -0.9723 Myanmar -1.2278 2011 Philippines -0.3411 Vietnam -0.4738 Cambodia -0.8091 Laos -0.9063 Myanmar -1.3034 2012 Vietnam -0.3732 Indonesia -0.4146 Cambodia -0.7233 Laos -0.8383 Myanmar -1.4342 10 2013 Indonesia -0.3956 Vietnam -0.4256 Cambodia -0.8120 Laos -0.8579 Myanmar -1.3816
2015 Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Ranking FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore 1.8940 Malaysia 1.2182 Thailand 0.5349 Brunei 0.3022 Indonesia -0.0297 2001 Singapore 1.9166 Malaysia 1.0831 Thailand 0.7188 Brunei 0.3058 Philippines -0.0339 2002 Singapore 1.5835 Malaysia 1.3368 Thailand 0.9782 Brunei 0.3350 Vietnam -0.1303 2003 Singapore 1.5506 Malaysia 1.3929 Thailand 0.8509 Brunei 0.4750 Vietnam -0.0200 2004 Singapore 1.5106 Malaysia 1.4126 Thailand 0.8312 Brunei 0.4396 Vietnam -0.0605 2005 Singapore 1.7237 Malaysia 1.2274 Thailand 0.8517 Brunei 0.2694 Vietnam -0.0059 2006 Singapore 1.6381 Malaysia 1.4197 Thailand 0.7785 Brunei 0.3309 Vietnam -0.1008 2007 Singapore 1.6370 Malaysia 1.4852 Thailand 0.5277 Brunei 0.3267 Indonesia 0.0340 2008 Singapore 1.7360 Malaysia 1.3597 Thailand 0.5436 Brunei 0.2074 Indonesia 0.1133 2009 Singapore 1.7290 Malaysia 1.3510 Thailand 0.5689 Brunei 0.1913 Vietnam 0.0921 2010 Singapore 1.5959 Malaysia 1.4455 Thailand 0.7146 Brunei 0.2137 Indonesia 0.0676 2011 Singapore 1.5884 Malaysia 1.5581 Thailand 0.7958 Indonesia 0.0700 Brunei 0.0557 2012 Singapore 1.5710 Malaysia 1.5690 Thailand 0.7850 Brunei 0.1827 Indonesia 0.0070 2013 Singapore 1.6265 Malaysia 1.5363 Thailand 0.6283 Brunei 0.1943 Indonesia 0.1252 FINANCIAL, BUSINESSES AND MANPOWER CONDITIONS Rank 6 7 8 9 10 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Vietnam -0.0921 Philippines -0.1549 Laos -1.1079 Cambodia -1.2534 Myanmar -1.3113 2001 Indonesia -0.1461 Vietnam -0.1778 Laos -1.1477 Cambodia -1.2569 Myanmar -1.2619 2002 Philippines -0.1639 Indonesia -0.2542 Cambodia -1.2139 Laos -1.2166 Myanmar -1.2546 2003 Indonesia -0.2919 Philippines -0.2919 Cambodia -1.1128 Laos -1.1382 Myanmar -1.4146 2004 Indonesia -0.0770 Philippines -0.3062 Cambodia -1.1198 Laos -1.2118 Myanmar -1.4187 2005 Philippines -0.0594 Indonesia -0.3061 Laos -1.1183 Cambodia -1.1469 Myanmar -1.4356 2006 Philippines -0.2237 Indonesia -0.2258 Cambodia -0.9699 Laos -1.1992 Myanmar -1.4477 2007 Vietnam -0.0196 Philippines -0.3370 Cambodia -0.9554 Laos -1.1761 Myanmar -1.5226 2008 Vietnam -0.0551 Philippines -0.2518 Cambodia -0.9151 Laos -1.1100 Myanmar -1.6280 2009 Indonesia 0.0574 Philippines -0.3722 Laos -0.9518 Cambodia -1.0041 Myanmar -1.6616 2010 Vietnam 0.0633 Philippines -0.5804 Laos -0.9243 Cambodia -0.9525 Myanmar -1.6433 2011 Vietnam -0.2559 Philippines -0.3513 Cambodia -0.9301 Laos -0.9900 Myanmar -1.5407 10 2012 Philippines -0.4050 Vietnam -0.4187 Cambodia -0.6164 Laos -1.0878 Myanmar -1.5868 2013 Philippines -0.2870 Vietnam -0.4229 Cambodia -0.7067 Laos -1.0670 Myanmar -1.6269
2015 Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development Ranking QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Singapore 1.9655 Brunei 0.9152 Malaysia 0.9083 Thailand 0.4121 Philippines -0.0007 2001 Singapore 1.9282 Malaysia 0.9388 Brunei 0.8606 Thailand 0.5343 Philippines -0.0103 2002 Singapore 1.8934 Malaysia 0.9703 Brunei 0.8499 Thailand 0.6800 Philippines -0.1536 2003 Singapore 1.8969 Malaysia 0.9912 Brunei 0.8809 Thailand 0.5113 Philippines -0.1179 2004 Singapore 1.8663 Malaysia 0.9705 Brunei 0.9071 Thailand 0.5031 Philippines -0.0927 2005 Singapore 1.8899 Malaysia 1.0234 Brunei 0.8611 Thailand 0.5054 Philippines -0.1694 2006 Singapore 1.8342 Malaysia 1.0704 Brunei 0.8069 Thailand 0.4845 Philippines -0.1458 2007 Singapore 1.9862 Malaysia 0.8735 Brunei 0.7662 Thailand 0.4068 Indonesia -0.1302 2008 Singapore 1.9744 Brunei 0.8732 Malaysia 0.8556 Thailand 0.3478 Indonesia -0.1282 2009 Singapore 1.9971 Brunei 0.8696 Malaysia 0.8267 Thailand 0.3180 Vietnam -0.1715 2010 Singapore 1.9411 Malaysia 0.8791 Brunei 0.7880 Thailand 0.3889 Indonesia -0.0698 2011 Singapore 2.0002 Malaysia 0.9040 Brunei 0.8280 Thailand 0.3605 Indonesia -0.1911 2012 Singapore 1.9468 Malaysia 0.9798 Brunei 0.7834 Thailand 0.3797 Indonesia -0.1797 2013 Singapore 2.0345 Malaysia 0.8537 Brunei 0.7644 Thailand 0.3597 Indonesia -0.1680 QUALITY OF LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Rank 6 7 8 9 10 Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score Economy Score 2000 Indonesia -0.2177 Vietnam -0.6047 Cambodia -0.9771 Laos -1.0355 Myanmar -1.3654 2001 Indonesia -0.2270 Vietnam -0.6405 Cambodia -0.9552 Laos -1.0558 Myanmar -1.3732 2002 Indonesia -0.3870 Vietnam -0.5092 Cambodia -0.9222 Laos -1.0194 Myanmar -1.4023 2003 Indonesia -0.3135 Vietnam -0.4485 Cambodia -0.8993 Laos -0.9936 Myanmar -1.5076 2004 Indonesia -0.2201 Vietnam -0.4713 Cambodia -0.9616 Laos -0.9617 Myanmar -1.5396 2005 Indonesia -0.2461 Vietnam -0.4566 Laos -0.9368 Cambodia -0.9563 Myanmar -1.5147 2006 Indonesia -0.1990 Vietnam -0.3015 Laos -0.9540 Cambodia -1.0035 Myanmar -1.5922 2007 Philippines -0.1514 Vietnam -0.2194 Laos -0.9315 Cambodia -0.9810 Myanmar -1.6192 2008 Philippines -0.1565 Vietnam -0.2861 Laos -0.9207 Cambodia -0.9330 Myanmar -1.6264 2009 Indonesia -0.1765 Philippines -0.2047 Laos -0.8676 Cambodia -0.9360 Myanmar -1.6552 2010 Vietnam -0.1149 Philippines -0.2310 Laos -0.9039 Cambodia -1.0112 Myanmar -1.6662 2011 Vietnam -0.2712 Philippines -0.3626 Laos -0.7009 Cambodia -0.8717 Myanmar -1.6952 2012 Philippines -0.2430 Vietnam -0.2997 Cambodia -0.7150 Laos -0.9505 Myanmar -1.7018 10 2013 Philippines -0.2671 Vietnam -0.3440 Laos -0.6600 Cambodia -0.8103 Myanmar -1.7629
What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis on Overall Competitiveness, 2015 Economy Rank Score Before After Before After Brunei 4 3 0.3699 0.8088 Cambodia 8 7-0.7462-0.3691 Indonesia 5 5-0.0788 0.2775 Laos 9 8-1.1141-0.7211 Malaysia 2 2 1.1509 1.2375 Myanmar 10 9-1.3776-0.9256 Philippines 6 5-0.2906-0.0211 Singapore 1 1 2.0806 2.2384 Thailand 3 3 0.4630 0.6097 Vietnam 7 5-0.4570-0.1090 Source: Asia Competitiveness Institute 20
The Panoramic View of Flying Geese Model on Economic Development, Cooperation and Specialization: Overcoming the Three Bottlenecks 经济发展 合作与专业化的雁行模式全景 西方发达经济体 ( 美国 ) 德国 日本 东亚新兴的工业化经济体 ( 香港 新加坡 韩国 台湾 ) 东盟四国和中国沿海 ( 中国沿海 印度尼西亚 马来西亚 菲律宾和泰国 ) 中国西部 中部和东北, 东盟转型经济体 ( 柬埔寨 老挝 缅甸和越南 中国西部 中部和东北 ) 21
Relative Shares of Global Gross Domestic Product^ for Major Economies: 1-2030 主要经济体所占全球国内生产总值 ^ 相对份额 :1-2030 年 (^Using PPP with the world as 100; *Estimated by Asia Competitiveness Institute at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; Source: Maddison 2007) (^ 使用国际购买力平价为 100;* 由新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院亚洲竞争力研究所估算 ; 资料源 : 麦迪森 2007) 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1978 1995 2003 2030* China 25.4 22.1 24.9 29.0 22.3 32.9 17.1 8.8 4.6 5.0 10.9 15.1 25.0 中国 India 32.0 28.1 24.4 22.4 24.4 16.0 12.1 7.5 4.2 3.4 4.6 5.5 12.0 印度 Japan 日本 1.1 2.7 3.1 2.9 4.1 3.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 7.7 8.4 6.6 8.0 A Total 58.5 52.9 52.4 54.3 50.8 51.9 31.5 18.9 11.8 16.1 23.9 27.2 45.0 A 总和 Europe 13.7 9.1 11.8 19.8 21.9 23.0 33.1 33.0 26.2 27.9 23.8 19.2 17.0 欧洲 USA 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 21.8 20.9 20.6 21.0 美国 Russia 1.5 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 9.2 2.2 3.8 5.0 B Total 15.5 11.9 15.5 23.4 26.4 30.2 49.5 60.4 63.1 58.9 46.9 43.6 43.0 B 总和 A + B Total A + B 总和 74.0 64.8 67.9 77.7 77.2 82.1 81.0 79.3 74.9 75.0 70.8 70.8 88.0
VAR Model of Estimation on the Global Engines of Growth 23
Why the One-Belt One-Road Strategy is a reality and ignoring it risked to be marginalized? Relative Importance of US, EU versus China & China versus Japan as an Engine of growth for ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), 1980-2020 美国 欧盟和日本比较中国作为东盟 5 国 ( 印尼 马来西亚 菲律宾 新加坡和泰国 ) 的经济增长引擎的相对重要性 Relative Importance of US vs. China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 美国对比中国 Period Ratio 时期比值 Relative Importance of Japan vs. China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 日本对比中国 Period Ratio 时期比值 Relative Importance of EU vs. China as an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-5 欧盟对比中国 Period Ratio 时期比值 1980-89 9.17 1980-89 3.23 1980-89 4.49 1990-99 4.30 1990-99 1.41 1990-99 2.41 2000-10 1.53 2000-10 0.53 2000-10 1.02 2011-20 *0.65 2011-20 *0.22 2011-20 *0.51 Note: *Forecasted by ACI Source: Tan et al (2012,Table 6) Note: * Forecasted by ACI Source: Tan et al (2012,Table 7) Note: *Forecasted by ACI Source: Tan et al (2012,Table 8) China s importance as a major engine of growth for ASEAN countries has been rapidly increasing over past three decades 中国作为东盟国家经济增长的主要引擎的重要性在过去 30 年有显著提升 24 Source: Tan Kong Yam, Tilak Abeysinghe and Tan Khee Giap (2014). Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5., Asian economic papers, MIT Press (USA)
US$ Trillions US$ Trillions 万亿美元 万亿美元 US$ Trillions US$ Trillions 万亿美元 万亿美元 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Projected Nominal GDP Growth Paths, 2012-2030^ 名义国内生产总值增长路径推计, 2012-2030^ Scenario 1: Conservative growth path* 方案 1: 保守增长轨迹 * 21.57 18.76 5.96 4.86 4.07 $0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Scenario 3: Optimistic growth path* 方案 3: 乐观增长轨迹 * $0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 30.24 26.70 9.30 6.89 5.72 * Average growth for period 2012-2030 Source: World bank., ^ Projected by ACI at LKYSPP, NUS * 2012-2030 年间平均增长数据源 : 世界银行., ^ 新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院亚洲竞争力研究所推计 China (5.5%) Germany (2%) India (4.5%) Japan (0%) USA (1%) China (7.5%) Germany (4%) India (6.5%) Japan (2.5%) USA (3%) 中国 德国 印度 日本 美国 中国 德国 印度 日本 美国 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Scenario 2: Moderate growth path* 方案 2: 平稳增长轨迹 * 25.56 22.40 7.79 5.79 4.83 $0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Scenario 4: Dynamic growth path for China and India with steady state growth for Germany, Japan and USA** $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 方案 4: 中国和印度的动态增长轨迹与德国 日本与美国的平稳增长轨迹 ** 25.31 22.40 7.79 5.30 5.06 $0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 ** For China 2012-2020, 7% p.a.; 2021-2030, 6% p.a. For India 2012-2020, 5.5% p.a.; 2021-2030, 6% p.a. ** 对于中国 2012-2020 年, 每年 7%.; 2021-2030, 每年 6%. 对于印度 2012-2020 年, 每年 5.5%.; 2021-2030, 每年 6%. China (6.5%) Germany (3%) India (5.5%) Japan (1.5%) USA (2%) 6 China (7%;6%) Germany (2.5%) India (5.5%;6%) Japan (1.5%) USA (2%) 中国 德国 印度 日本 美国 中国 德国 印度 日本 美国
Motivation: Why Should We Care About Competitiveness of the Greater China Region? Figure 1. GDP of East Asia, Japan, mainland China and United States and from 1980-2013 Source: World Bank 26
Annual Increase in China GDP = US$1,156 billion (Average of 2011-2013) Country GDP (US$ billion, 2012) Number of Years for China to Increase by this GDP Size India 1,824 1.58 (19 months) Indonesia 895 0.77 (9.2 months) Singapore 270 0.23 (2.8 months) UK 2,440 2.11 (25 months) Russia 2,020 1.75 (21 months) Source: World Bank
The Four Engines of Growth Malaysia Period China India Japan EU US 1980-1989 0.152 0.062 0.592 0.738 1.358 1990-1999 0.373 0.036 0.481 0.860 1.512 2001-2010 0.663 0.064 0.325 0.686 1.120 (2.04) (1.03) (1.69) Note: Figures in brackets for 2001-2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 28
The Four Engines of Growth Thailand Period China India Japan EU US 1980-1989 0.185 0.035 0.437 0.803 1.270 1990-1999 0.354 0.026 0.524 0.876 1.438 2001-2010 0.659 0.044 0.377 0.700 1.035 (1.74) (1.06) (1.57) Note: Figures in brackets for 2001-2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 29
The Four Engines of Growth Indonesia Period China India Japan EU US 1980-1989 0.076 0.013 0.445 0.312 0.782 1990-1999 0.183 0.015 0.322 0.415 0.661 2000-2010 0.333 0.034 0.243 0.344 0.491 (1.37) (1.03) (1.47) Note: Figures in brackets for 2000-2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 30
The Four Engines of Growth Singapore Period China India Japan EU US 1980-1989 0.165 0.049 0.442 0.650 1.377 1990-1999 0.396 0.039 0.441 0.869 1.520 2000-2010 0.748 0.063 0.297 0.703 1.006 (2.52) (0.94) (1.34) Note: Figures in brackets for 2000-2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 31
The Four Engines of Growth Philippines Period China India Japan EU US 1980-1989 0.020 0.003 0.068 0.104 0.251 1990-1999 0.043 0.004 0.068 0.121 0.256 2000-2010 0.110 0.005 0.063 0.115 0.175 (1.75) (1.05) (1.59) Note: Figures in brackets for 2000-2009 refer to: (i) under China: relative importance of China vs. Japan as an engine of growth; (ii) under US (EU): relative importance of US (EU) vs. China as an engine of growth. 32
Relative Importance of US vs China as an Engine of Growth (2001-2010) Country Ratio India 1.94 Malaysia 1.69 Philippines 1.59 Thailand 1.57 Japan 1.53 Indonesia 1.47 Singapore 1.34 Australia 1.15 Korea 1.09 Taiwan 0.99 Hong Kong 0.70
Relative Importance of EU vs China as an Engine of Growth (2001-2010) Country Ratio India 1.61 Malaysia 1.03 Philippines 1.05 Thailand 1.06 Japan 0.91 Indonesia 1.03 Singapore 0.94 Australia 0.92 Korea 0.76 Taiwan 0.63
Relative Importance of China vs Japan as an Engine of Growth (2001-2010) Country Ratio Hong Kong 6.33 Taiwan 3.73 Korea 3.20 India 2.98 Singapore 2.52 Malaysia 2.04 Philippines 1.75 Thailand 1.75 Australia 1.52 Indonesia 1.37
Relative Importance of (US plus Japan) vs China as Engine of Growth (2001-2010) Country Ratio India 2.28 Malaysia 2.18 Philippines 2.14 Thailand 2.16 Indonesia 2.20 Singapore 1.74 Australia 1.81 Korea 1.40 Taiwan 1.26 Hong Kong 0.86
Trend Decoupling in Real GDP Growth, 1970-2010 8 6 Actual and Trends 4 2 0-2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Advanced economies, actual Advanced economies, trend Source: Computed from IMF, WEO and WEO Update Emerging and developing economies, actual Emerging and developing economies, trend
Engines of Growth among ASEAN-5 (2001-10) Indo Mal Phil Spore Thai Indo 1.31 0.09 0.03 0.13 (0.17) Mal 0.15 1.23 0.06 0.33 (0.49) 0.06 0.16 (0.20) Phil 0.01 0.03 1.07 0.03 0.02 Spore 0.26 (0.16) 0.30 (0.43) Thai 0.14 0.18 Note: figures in brackets refer to the period 1990-99(0.24) 0.07 1.18 0.15 (0.22) 0.07 0.21 (0.39) 1.27
No Decoupling in GDP Growth Cycles, 1970-2010 3 2 Deviations from Trends 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies
Table 4: Bi-variate Correlation between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and National Output (GDP) for ASEAN Member States Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 1970-2014 0.374 0.969 0.932 0.934 0.893 0.404 0.834 0.946 0.838 0.943 1970-1998 0.395 0.820 0.836 0.825 0.950 0.687 0.899 0.954 0.871 0.965 1999-2008 -0.360 0.929 0.885 0.860 0.832 0.051 0.512 0.512 0.844 0.916 2009-2014 0.937 0.878 0.960 0.855 0.857-0.342 0.766 0.895 0.620 0.887 Source: Asia Competitiveness Institute based on data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
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2016 ACI Competitiveness Ranking: Geographical Distribution Overall Competitiveness Macroeconomic Stability Government and Institutional Setting Top 10 Economies Middle 14 Economies Bottom 10 Economies Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development 45
2016 Annual ACI Update on Competitiveness Ranking of Indian Sub-national Economies Empirical Findings: Overall Competitiveness Top 10 States and Federal Territories TOP 10 States and Federal Territories MIDDLE 15 States and Federal Territories BOTTOM 10 States and Federal Territories State Rank Rank State 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Maharashtra 1 1 1 Uttar Pradesh 7 7 6 Delhi # 2 2 2 Andhra Pradesh 6 6 7 Tamil Nadu 3 3 3 West Bengal 9 9 8 Gujarat 4 5 4 Kerala 8 8 9 Karnataka 5 4 5 Haryana 14 11 10 State Bottom 10 States and Federal Territories Rank Rank State 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Mizoram 24 26 20 Assam 33 31 32 Andaman & Nicobar Islands # 28 27 25 Bihar 35 32 29 Nagaland 27 28 28 Uttarakhand 26 33 33 Meghalaya 32 29 30 Chhattisgarh 30 34 34 Tripura 31 30 31 Jharkhand 34 35 35 # denotes Federal Territories 46
Findings: Provincial Ranking Overall Competitiveness 2016 Preliminary Results* Overall Competitiveness: Top 10 Ranking and Score Overall Competitiveness: Geographical Spread 2016 Rank 2015 Rank 2014 Rank Province Score 1 1 1 DKI Jakarta 3.193 2 2 2 East Java 2.068 3 5 4 Central Java 1.446 4 4 5 West Java 1.351 5 3 3 East Kalimantan 1.012 6 10 7 South Sulawesi 0.931 7 12 14 Bali 0.694 8 8 8 South Kalimantan 0.662 9 11 10 North Sulawesi 0.543 10 6 6 DI Yogyakarta 0.402 *The data is from 2013 secondary data from official sources and 2015 primary data based on ACI s perception survey Source: Asia Competitiveness Institute 47
Background Indonesia s Economic Potential Composition of ASEAN GDP (2014, current USD) Year Indonesia GDP Growth World GDP Growth Thailand Cambodia 0.67% Vietnam 7.51% 11.48% Malaysia 13.19% 15.08% 2010 6.2% 2011 6.2% 2012 6.0% 2013 5.6% 4.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% Myanmar 2.60% 12.42% Singapore 2014 5.0% 2.5% Lao PDR 0.48% Indonesia 35.86% 0.70% Brunei Darussalam 2015* 4.7% 2.8% Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators for 2010-2014 and World Bank, Global Economic Prospects for 2015 forecast Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Indonesia is the biggest economy in ASEAN and is expected to play a leading role in enhancing connectivity and trade across regions. As Indonesia grows further, Singapore as well as other neighbouring Southeast Asian countries will also benefit. This ACI s study contributes as part of Aid for Trade. 48
Background Indonesia s quest for higher growth Sei Mangkei Kalimantan Utara Morotai Kalimantan Barat Special Economic Zones in Indonesia Existing Proposed Tanjung Api-Api MBTK Palu Sulawesi Selatan Bitung Maluku Sorong Tanjung Lesung Mandalika NTT Merauke Source: Indonesia s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) Indonesia has embarked on various economic reforms to spur higher economic growth. Emphasis was put on infrastructural development, business climate improvement, and shift towards investment-based growth. Indonesia s archipelagic geography provides vast opportunities as well as challenges. Challenges arise in spreading economic prosperity across the islands and fully engaging them in the nation-wide economic production and distribution process. 49
Facilitating ASEAN Industrialization: Discerning Strategies with Balanced Perspectives The East Asia Economic Development (EAED) model essentially is about overcoming the three bottlenecks, namely the financing, infrastructure and production bottlenecks. Relocations of multinational corporations from Mainland China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Europe and the USA to ASEAN are ongoing opportunities which must be seized! Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): Financing of ASEAN infrastructures to enhance ASEAN investment competitiveness with healthy competition and even cooperation amongst the World Bank, and Asian Development Bank (ADB) and AIIB! China is not just in a neo-colonial position of taking natural resources from ASEAN and stifling their industrialization process. As investment opportunities in China s industrialization is near saturation, China s surplus capitals are finding outlets to achieve higher returns, China is poised to be a important locomotive for future ASEAN development and growth. As China s economy slows from high to moderate growth, excess capacity and surplus capital of China is very much what ASEAN needs, and we can pick and choose what is good for ASEAN in planning its development process which is paramount! South China Seas dispute should be viewed as an opportunity for greater economic integration for Asian and ASEAN if it is contained and not internationalized. 50
Asia Economic Connectivity Vision: 2030 A Proposed Master Plan 亚洲经济互联互通 : 愿景 2030 总规划的提议 3 Source: Google Maps 资料源 : 谷歌地图
> > Asia Economic Connectivity Vision (AECV) 2030: with Asian Aspirations < < > > 亚洲经济连通性愿景 (AECV)2030: 与亚洲志向 < < 13 The AECV 2030 will work towards harmonious multilateral relations, facilitate crossborder trade and investment, enhance governance of institutions, promote sustainable development along with poverty reduction and social inclusivity in Asian region. AECV 2030 将在亚洲范围内致力于促进和谐的多方关系 促进跨境贸易与投资 加强机构管理 推动可持续发展, 并同时减少贫困和提高社会包容性 In realisation of Asian aspirations by providing affordable education, improved healthcare and better housing for all, living in peaceful co-existence, good neighboring spirit with mutual respect, trust and dignity. 实现亚洲志向, 那就是为相关国家的人们提供可负担的教育 给予每个人更好的医疗保健和个人住房, 使人们都能够具有和平共处的 良好的邻里精神, 同时相互尊重 信任 有尊严 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
> > Mission & Commitments < < > > 使命与承诺 < < Constructively engage one another on the basis of Chinese initiative, ASEAN-centric leadership with closer economic cooperation amongst emerging South Asian and African countries 建设性地参与到这一以中国发起 东盟担任中心领导做为基础的合作中来, 与新兴的南亚与非洲国家进行更紧密的经济合作 14 Extend Asia s Economic Connectivity Vision (AECV) to capitalize on differences in economic comparative advantages, greater market accessibility to the large Chinese domestic economy through aid-for-trade approach as well as to strengthen export competitiveness for weaker economies across continents 扩大亚洲经济互联互通 (AECV) 以充分利用经济体间比较优势的差异, 通过 " 援助促贸易 " 的方式更广泛地进入广阔的中国国内市场, 并加强各大洲较弱经济体的出口竞争力 Facilitate resource flows to support Asian growth, while promoting infrastructure investment, human capital capacity building, improve economic resiliency and technology transfers to economies in need across continents. 促进资源流动以支持亚洲经济增长, 同时为各大洲有需求的经济体提升基础设施投资 人力资源能力建设, 提高经济韧性和技术转让. Overcome financing, infrastructure and production bottlenecks via Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) through a consultative approach amongst economies concerned with ownership 通过在与所有权相关的国家间展开协商的方式, 以公私合作伙伴关系 (PPP) 突破资金 基础设施和生产瓶颈 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
> > Connectivity by Air, Sea, Rail and Road < < > > 航空 航运 铁路与公路的连通 < < Tentatively we shall propose various modes of transportation across continents as part of the grand connectivity nexus in support of regional growth and development. 我们试探性地提出大洲间的各种交通方式, 作为支持区域经济增长和发展的宏伟连接纽带的一部分 Routes of the various proposed modes of transportation would take into account the potential economic activities, financial viability and logistics involved across continents in consultation with the private and public sectors of those economies involved. 提议的各种交通方式的路径将咨询相关经济体的私营及公管机构, 并会把各大洲间的潜在经济活动 财政可行性与涉及到的物流等因素纳入考虑范围 If implemented, the proposed routes through various modes of transportation should greatly enhance competitiveness and economic integration of the region, leading to more efficient movement of goods, linkages of services and people to people connection. 如果付诸实践, 提议的各种交通方式的路径将会大大提高区域竞争力和经济一体化, 并带来更高效的商品流动 业务关联与人际联系 15 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
> > Five Broad Proposals in Consultation with Stake Holders to Ensure Wide Ownerships < < > > 向利益相关者咨询的五大提议, 确保广泛的所有权 < < Five broad proposals are to be based upon market-oriented potential economic activities, financial feasibility, sustainable and inclusive growth under the ASEAN-centric leadership. 五大建议将是在东盟作为中心领导下, 基于以市场为导向的潜在经济活动 财务可行性 可持续性和包容性增长的 Private and public participation would be an important guiding and operational principle, with detailed interests identified and clarified with the parties throughout the process. 政府与私人的共同参与能在整个过程中细化并明确各方利益, 它将是一个具有指导性和可行性的重要原则 An active consultation process with and ownership by stake holders are paramount to the success of the AECV 2030. 与拥有所有权的利益相关方进行积极的咨询对于 AECV2030 的成功是至关重要的 A road show will therefore be undertaken by ACI team members shortly to visit and engage private and public stake holders to identify common business interests, encourage public policies formulations and stimulate catalytic changes. 因此,ACI 团队成员将在近期内进行一次路演, 去访问和连系私人与公共部门的利益相关方以明确共同的商业利益 鼓励公共政策制定并催化改革 23 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
Proposal One 第一项提议 : Labor-Intensive Manufacturing Migration from Greater China to ASEAN 劳动密集型制造业从中国到东盟的转移 1. Promote ASEAN as a leading manufacturing base to be driven by Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand by integrating further with Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation so as to become the second factory of the world 通过进一步整合泛北部湾经济合作, 提升东盟使其成为一个由印度尼西亚 马来西亚和泰国推动的 领先的工业生产基地, 从而成为世界的第二大工厂 24 2. Increase the region's attractiveness to foreign investors and facilitate production relocations by multi-national corporations (MNCs) from Mainland China, Taiwan, Korea, European Union, Japan and USA due to increased ASEAN connectivity and stability. 基于东盟增强的连通性和稳定性, 通过来自中国大陆 台湾 韩国 欧洲 日本和美国的跨国公司 (MNCs) 增加区域对外国投资者的吸引力并促进生产关系 3. Establish a streamlined production and supply value chain across Asian continents for designated manufacturing clusters, to maximize synergistic benefits. 为指定的制造业集群建立贯通亚洲大陆的 流程化的生产和供应价值链, 以实现协同效益的最大化 4. Encourage technology transfers, generate productivity spillovers and create employment in Asia as exemplified by the flying geese model 鼓励技术转移, 在亚洲内激发生产率溢出效应并创造就业机会, 像雁行模式所表示的那样 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
Proposal Two 第二项提议 : Infrastructure Investment and Development 基础设施的投资与发展 29 1. Enhance export-oriented growth, promote inclusive development and ensure sustainable capital inflows across continents through appropriate sequential reforms 加强以出口为导向的经济增长, 促进包容性发展并通过适当的 按部就班的改革确保跨大洲的 持续的资本流入 2. Bridge the development gap between and within more and less developed economies through strengthened connectivity and integration along sea, road, rail, air and information communications technology linkages, with investments in public utilities, power stations, dams, oil and gas transport corridors 通过增强航空 航运 铁路 公路和信息与通信技术的连通与整合, 通过对于电站 大坝 油气运输通道等公共设施的投资, 缩小较发达经济体和欠发达经济体之间和它们内部的差距 3. Improve trade efficiency, energize economic vitality and enhance Asia competitiveness by unblocking financing, infrastructure and production bottlenecks 通过突破融资 基础设施和生产方面的瓶颈提高贸易效率 激发经济活力并提升亚洲竞争力 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
Proposal Three 第三项提议 : Asia as a Food Basket with Enhanced Agricultural Productivity 亚洲成为拥有更高农业生产力的食品供应源 33 1. According to the 2014 Report by United Nations Food Organisation, current world population stands at 7 billion and will reach 9 billion by 2050 and food needs to increase by 70% to meet the proposed population growth. 根据联合国粮食组织 2014 年的报告, 目前世界人口为 70 亿, 并将在 2050 年达到 90 亿 食品供应须提高 70% 以满足这一人口增长的需求 2. Given the rapidly aging Asian population with rapid urbanisation and reluctant younger farmers, promote regional cooperation in agriculture, plantation crops, fishery, food processing and other downstream industries will be paramount 由于亚洲人口正在迅速老龄化 城市化进程在不断加速 年轻人也变得越来越不愿意从事农业生产, 促进农业 种植作物 渔业 食品加工业等下游产业的区域合作将变得至关重要 3. Emphasize each nation's comparative advantage to maximize total regional agricultural produces and food outputs 重视每个国家的比较优势以实现区域农业总产量和食品产出的最大化 4. Invest in agricultural infrastructure and facilities to increase economies of scale on land and labor productivity 投资农业基础设施和设备以扩大经济体的生产规模, 提高土地和劳动人口的生产率 5. Harmonize irrigation schemes, implement new technologies and practices to increase crop yield 协调统一灌溉方案, 通过使用新技术和方法以提高作物产量 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
Proposal Four 第四项提议 : Sustainable Green and Liveable Ecosystem with Inclusive Development 可持续的 绿色的 宜居的生态系统与包容性发展 1. Establish a green environment through re-forestation 通过重新造林营建一个绿色的环境 2. Engage in regional cooperation to resolve the problem of over-fishing 融入区域合作以解决过度捕捞的问题 3. Support marine sanctuary and ocean resource conservation 支持海洋保护区和海洋资源保护 4. Reduce water pollution through proper waste disposal practices and water resource management 通过适当的废物处理方式和水资源管理, 减少水体污染 5. Promote livability of cities and environmentally sustainable urbanisation 提升城市宜居性以及环境可持续的城市化进程 38 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
Proposal Five 第五项提议 : ASEAN as a Regional Trade, Business and Services Hub 东盟作为一个区域贸易 商业及服务业的枢纽 44 1. Fac ilit at ing ASEAN as a regional a vi ation, logi stics and global tr ading hubs, synergizing internationalisation of small and medium enterprises by cooperating with multinational corporations 推动东盟成为一个区域航空 物流与全球贸易的枢纽, 通过与跨国公司合作促进中小型企业的国际化 2. ASEAN to play a pivotal role in global telecommunications and financial services clusters with greater internationalisation of Yuan or RMB 东盟在全球电信和金融服务集群中扮演一个举足轻重的角色, 同时更好地推进人民币的国际化 3. Serving as a vibrant regional tourism hub with ASEAN focused destinations 作为一个针对东盟的, 充满活力的区域旅游集散中心 4. Making ASEAN the prime destination for regional headquarters for business corporations with a competitive and pro-business tax regime 使东盟拥有竞争力强和亲商的税制, 使其成为工商企业地区总部的主要目标地点 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
> > Target Performance Indicators by 2030 < < > > 2030 年目标绩效指标 < < Macroeconomic Indicators 宏观经济指标 Infrastructure Development Indicators 基础设施发展指标 Human Capital Indicators 人力资本指标 1. Gross Domestic Product 国内生产总值 2. Export of Goods and Services 出口商品与服务 3. Government Revenue (incl. grants) 政府收入 4. Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 外商直接投资流入 5. Length of Railways 铁路长度 6. Length of Roads 公路长度 7. Electronic Power Consumption 电力消耗量 8. Employed Population 就业人口 9. Adult Literacy Rate 成人识字率 10.Life Expectancy at Birth 出生预期寿命 11.% of Population Below Poverty Line 贫困线以下人口比率 49 Vision 2030 with Asian Aspirations 愿景 2030 与亚洲志向 Mission & Commitments 使命与承诺 Proposed Routes 提议路径 Five Broad Proposals 五大提议 Target Performance Indicators 2030 2030 年目标绩效指标
百万美元 2000 年不变价格 百万美元 2000 年不变价格 ASEAN-10 Target Performance Indicators,2030 Macroeconomic Factors 东盟十国 2030 年目标绩效指标宏观经济指标 百万美元 2000 年不变价格 百万美元 2000 年不变价格 东盟十国 GDP: 推计至 2030 年 东盟十国出口商品与服务 : 推计至 2030 年 GDP projection figures are based on a growth rate of 5% By 2030, GDP is estimated at 2.82 trillion USD Recommendations as per ACI s AECV plan can enable the region to capitalise on its strengths GDP 的推计数字基于 5% 的增长率 到 2030 年, 国内生产总值估算为 2.82 万亿美元 基于 ACI 的 AECV 计划, 可以使该地区能够利用自己的优势 By 2030, export of G&S by ASEAN-10 is estimated to reach 2.42 trillion USD A model for export-oriented growth is proposed in the AECV 2030 with a focus upon agricultural products, through enhanced synergistic efficiencies 至 2030 年, 东盟出口商品与服务经估算将达到 2.42 万亿美元 在 AECV 2030 中提出了一个以出口为导向的经济增长模式, 它以农业产品为重点并使用提升协同效益的方式 东盟十国境外直接投资流入 : 推计至 2030 年 东盟十国政府收入 : 推计至 2030 年 FDI was calculated based upon GDP projections for ASEAN-10 By 2030, FDI is estimated at 207.42 billion USD, with investments in connectivity and competitive production capabilities This is a quantitative estimate of what the region needs to attract to achieve the ACI proposed Vision with aforementioned clusters 境外直接投资的计算基于东盟十国 GDP 的推计 至 2030 年, 对互联互通与有竞争力的生产能力进行投资, 境外直接投资经估算将达到 2074.2 亿美元 这是一个对于地区所需要吸引的目标以达到 ACI 提出的愿景的, 针对上述集群的量化的估算 Government Revenue as projected from recorded data and forecasted growth rates will reach 555.02 billion USD GDP, FDI and Government Revenue indicators are interconnected figures, and benefit from a positive feedback loop through increased competitiveness and efficiencies 政府收入根据记录的数据和预测的增长率将达到 5550.2 亿美元 GDP, 境外直接投资与政府收入指标是相互关联的数据, 并通过竞争力和效益的增长, 从积极的反馈循环中获益 62
百万千瓦时 ASEAN-10 Target Performance Indicators,2030 Infrastructure Development 东盟十国 2030 年目标绩效指标基础设施发展 公里 公里 东盟十国铁路长度 : 推计至 2030 年 东盟十国电力消耗量 : 推计至 2030 年 Length of Railways was calculated based on requirements of an expanding ASEAN-10 economy By 2030, Length of Railways could approach 28,522 kilometres Physical connectivity improvement needs to be supplemented by shared standards for compatible transport infrastructure and information communication technology (ICT) 铁路长度是基于东盟十国经济不断增长这一需求而计算的 至 2030 年, 铁路长度将达到 28,522 公里 实体上的互联互通需要有兼容的交通基础设施和信息通信技术 (ICT) 共同标准的支持 Power Consumption, in line with energy needs and potential GDP growth of 5%, is estimated at 1.82 trillion kilowatt hour This is a significant opportunity for energy producers and exporters, who will stand to benefit from the regions increased economic connectivity 电力消耗量, 根据能源需求和 5% 的 GDP 增长潜力, 经推计将达到 1.82 万亿千瓦时 这对于能源生产商和出口商是一个巨大的机会, 他们将从该地区与日俱增的经济的互联互通中获益 东盟十国公路长度 : 推计至 2030 年 By 2030, Length of Roads for movement of goods and people may well reach 2.61 million kilometres This level of road expansion requires infrastructure bottlenecks to be overcome with bi-lateral and multi-lateral cooperation, via a PPP model 至 2030 年, 可以用于人员与货物流动的公路长度将可能达到 261 万公里 这一程度的道路扩建需要通过基于公私合作伙伴关系模式的双边及多边合作, 突破基础设施瓶颈方可达到 63
年 ASEAN-10 Target Performance Indicators,2030 Human Capital Upgrading 东盟十国 2030 年目标绩效指标人力资本提升 百分比 千人 百分比 东盟十国成人识字率 : 推计至 2030 年 东盟十国贫困线以下人口比率 : 推计至 2030 年 By this measure, literacy Rate in ASEAN would rise to 99.67% in 2030 Literacy empowers the region to move up the industrial ladder with a pool of skilled labour, sharing the gains of closer economic integration 通过一措施, 至 2030 年, 东盟识字率将上升到 99.67% 读写能力通过积累技术劳动力使地区工业能力提升, 从更紧密的经济一体化中获益 Target set was based on World Bank s estimate for global poverty By 2030, decreasing at an average of 0.55% a year, poverty levels should drop to 3% As ASEAN-10 develops over the next decade or so, the wealth gains will erode poverty on absolute terms, with distribution depending upon effective policy and action 目标的设定基于世界银行估算的全球贫困水平 至 2030 年, 通过每年 0.55% 的递减, 贫困水平应降至 3% 基于于东盟十国在未来十年左右的时间发展, 财富收益将从绝对数量来看削减贫困, 但财富的分配取决于有效的政策和行动 东盟十国出生预期寿命 : 推计至 2030 年 东盟十国就业人口 : 推计至 2030 年 By 2030, Life Expectancy at Birth is targeted at 72 years Technological improvements in healthcare, healthcare delivery and information dissemination are taken as moving in tandem 至 2030 年, 出生预期寿命的目标是达到 72 岁 医疗技术的进步 医疗服务和信息的传播都被视为是同步提升的 Total Population Employed by 2030, with an average of 6.77 million people joining the workforce each year, will reach 397.21 million. These projections reflect the magnitude of growth and development by the region up to 2030 with ACI s proposed vision, with regional collaboration allowing for technological transfers, greater mobility and well-paced urbanisation to facilitate accelerated growth for all 至 2030 年, 随着平均每年 677 万人进入职场, 总就业人口将达到 3.9721 亿 这些推计都反映了通过 ACI 提出的愿景, 通过区域合作 允许技术转移 更大的流动性和通过更好的城市化进程以促进全面增长, 而达到的地区经济增长与发展的程度 64
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