2014 Midterm Elections and Trade

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Rafe Cross
5 years ago
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of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which expired this year, the Nicaragua

2 Trade matters before Congress Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) with 10 countries, including Vietnam Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), necessary for a vote on TPP Extension of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which expired this year, the Nicaragua TPL, expiring at the end of 2014, and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), expiring in 2015

3 Vietnamese apparel and TPP

4 Central America and TPP??

5 GSP, AGOA and Nicaragua TPL?

subject to special elections to fill vacancies, making a total of 36 contested seats Democrats presently hold a

6 Yesterday s races Regular elections were held yesterday for all 435 House seats Republicans presently hold a majority (with 3 vacancies) Regular elections were held for 33 of 100 Senate seats; 3 more seats were subject to special elections to fill vacancies, making a total of 36 contested seats Democrats presently hold a majority (including two independents who caucus with Democrats Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine)

7 Outcome

and there is a huge demand for change. They want to get out of that room.

8 Alex Castellanos (GOP strategist) Government s failing. Nothing works. People are trapped in a room with President Obama and the Democratic Party, and there is a huge demand for change. They want to get out of that room. But the only door out leads to a room full of lepers that s the Republican Party

The GOP advantage Incumbency Of the 36 Senate seats up for reelection yesterday, Democrats control 21 and Republicans only control 15 Democrats had more to

9 The GOP advantage Incumbency Of the 36 Senate seats up for reelection yesterday, Democrats control 21 and Republicans only control 15 Democrats had more to lose Midterms are referenda on sitting Presidents Barrack Obama s approval rating is lower than George W. Bush s in 2006, when Republicans lost both houses

party has done badly in midterm elections (in the House, the president s party gained seats in

10 The GOP and these midterms Demographically, Republicans are older and whiter then Democrats, and fewer non-white and younger people turn out for midterm elections Historically, the president s party has done badly in midterm elections (in the House, the president s party gained seats in only 3 midterms in the last 100 years, 1934 (the Depression), 1998 (the Clinton impeachment) and 2002 (9/11)

Gerrymandering Most states House districts were re-drawn after the 2010 Census by

11 Why the GOP kept the House Geographical distribution Democrats live in densely populated, urban areas, where lots of votes are wasted because they will win anyway Gerrymandering Most states House districts were re-drawn after the 2010 Census by Republican majorities, who controlled 30 statehouses (up from 16) after the 2010 elections

won 51 percent of House votes, yet fell 17 percent short of a majority Without some surge by

12 GOP will keep the House past 2016 Incumbency in 2012, incumbents ran, on average, 5 percentage points ahead of nonincumbents of the same party In the 2012 elections, Democrats won 51 percent of House votes, yet fell 17 percent short of a majority Without some surge by the Democrats, Republicans will likely control the House until at least sometime after the 2020 Census

13 Senate math 34 Democratic seats and 30 Republican seats were not up for election yesterday 4 Democratic seats and 12 Republican seats were safe Safe seats included Sessions (R) of Alabama, Collins (R) of Maine, Inhofe (R) of Oklahoma, Graham (R) and Scott (R) of South Carolina, Alexander (R) of Tennessee, Cronyn (R) of Texas, Markey (D) of Massachusetts and Reed (D) of Rhode Island The Democrats had no safe seats in the South

14 The likely all won (except Warner) Winning, likely Democrats are Durbin of Illinois, Peters of Michigan, Franken of Minnesota, Booker of New Jersey, Udall of New Mexico and Merkley of Oregon Winning, likely Republicans are Cochran of Mississippi, Rounds of South Dakota and Capito of West Virginia and Pryor of Arkansas

15 That left 9 toss ups (or 10?) 45 were Democratic not up for reelection or safe, likely or leaning for Democrats 46 were Republicans not up for reelection or safe, likely or leaning for Republicans The 9 toss ups were one each in Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina Virginia turned into an unexpected toss up

16 Alaska? As of this morning, Sullivan (R) led by 49 to 45 percent, but the media still hadn t projected a winner Begich (D) could have been hurt by a September attack ad accusing Sullivan of being soft on crime, which Begich ultimately pulled

17 Colorado? Democrats had attacked Gardner (R) for his support of so-called personhood legislation as intended to ban abortion But the war on women theme may have backfired on Udall (D) late polls showed Gardner trailed among women by only about 5 points Denver Post, which formerly backed both Obama and Udall, endorsed Gardner

18 Georgia? Perdue (R) was considered a better candidate in the primary than long-time Congressman Kingston because he was an outsider; but Democrats attacked him for outsourcing during his business career, like Romney Democrats mounted a big registration and get out the vote campaign for Nunn (D) may have been too little too late Libertarian candidate Swafford could have forced a run-off if neither Nunn nor Perdue got 50 percent

19 Iowa? Ernst (R) (with attention grabbing TV ads about pigs) was criticized for extremism on lots of issues, like abortion and entitlements, and ties to the Koch brothers But Braley (D) got heat for voting for Obamacare and for having Michelle Obama campaign for him

20 Kansas? The Democrat dropped out of this race so that Orman (I) had a better shot at beating longtime Senator Roberts (R) Roberts barely survived a tea party challenge in his primary Roberts ran a national campaign, saying his reelection was essential to take the Senate and check Obama s policies, Roberts will likely take over as chairman of the Agriculture Committee

21 Kentucky? Unpopular at home for his role in the ineffective Congress, Minority Leader McConnell (R) was seriously challenged by novice Grimes (D) Both made dumb mistakes Grimes for refusing to admit she voted for Obama and McConnell for promising to repeal Obamacare while at the same time supporting the state s popular Kynect insurance exchange

popular retail Louisiana politician (wobble dance, keg stands)

22 Louisiana? Third candidate Maness (R) caused a runoff, because state law considers this to be a primary Runoff set for December and Landrieu (D) will likely lose, according to polls Landrieu is a popular retail Louisiana politician (wobble dance, keg stands) who would do a lot better against lackluster Cassidy (R) if she were not so tainted by Obama, who is spectacularly unpopular in her state

23 New Hampshire? Brown (R), after losing in New York to Elizabeth Warren, tried his hand in New Hampshire, and injected ISIS and immigration into his nationalized contest, hurting Shaheen in the polls Shaheen (D) distanced herself from Obama but didn t call out Brown as a carpetbagger like a lot of people said she should Brown reduced her lead from double digits to an insignificant margin right before the election in a state known for volatile political swings

and the Republicans relentlessly associating her with the Administration Libertarian

24 North Carolina? This was the nastiest race in the country, driven by firstterm Hagan s unpopularity and the Republicans relentlessly associating her with the Administration Libertarian Haugh, a pizza deliveryman, pulled away voters who just didn t like either candidate The contest drew an all-time national record $56 million in outside spending

25 Virginia? A toss-up? A lot closer than expected Warner (D) is ahead by less than 1 percent Gillespie (R) still hadn t conceded as of this morning Could ask for a recount Unexpectedly close for an otherwise popular senator with a 56 percent approval rating in his state

26 So have you counted? 3 seats still undecided 52 Republican seats 45 Democratic/ Independent seats

reform (probably without any relief for 12 million undocumented aliens) But Republicans have their eyes on 2016, when 24 of their Senate seats and only 10

27 What will Republicans do? They could come together with Democrats on a few things: Keystone XL pipeline, TPA (more on that later), corporate tax reform and pared down immigration reform (probably without any relief for 12 million undocumented aliens) But Republicans have their eyes on 2016, when 24 of their Senate seats and only 10 Democrats seats will be up for elections Some Senate Republicans may be worried about 2016 primary challenges from hardcore conservatives, and may therefore be reluctant to cooperate on any legislation with Democrats And they may not want the Obama administration to get credit for anything

28 What will Republicans do? Democrats will filibuster some likely initiatives: a 20-week abortion ban, dismantling Consumer Financial Protection, block granting Medicaid, and cutting food stamps and Pell grants Other initiatives: eliminating Export- Import Bank, changes to Obamacare, and Social Security and Medicare cuts To avoid filibusters they can attach initiatives to budget legislation and pass it with the filibuster-immune reconciliation process, forcing the president to veto the legislation and shut down the government McConnell has vaguely threatened this strategy to repeal Obamacare

29 Committee chairs? Global warming denier James Inhofe (OK) for Environment and Public Works (oversight of EPA) Ted Cruz (TX), also a global warming denier, for Science and Space Jeff Sessions (AL) for Budget (watch for immigration reform opposition) Orrin Hatch (UT) for Finance (watch for his bill to repeal the Obamacare tax on medical devices and hearings on Obamacare generally and watch for trade issues, of course) Chuck Grassley (IA) for Judiciary (watch for handling of judicial appointments and immigration reform)

30 Committee chairs? Bob Corker (TN) for Foreign Relations (will oversee deal on Iran s nuclear program) David Vitter (LA) for Small Business and Entrepreneurship (health care, tax and environment issues affecting small business) John McCain (AZ) for Armed Services Ron Johnson (WI) for Homeland Security and Government Affairs

31 Committee chairs? Richard Burr (NC) for Intelligence (supports NSA and CIA surveillance) or maybe Veterans Affairs Lisa Murkowski (AK) for Energy to succeed Mary Landrieu Paul Ryan (WI) for House Ways and Means (tax reform and trade)

32 Other initiatives Ted Cruz and other arch conservatives want to use the new majority to launch investigations (e.g., veterans care, IRS audits of conservatives, Benghazi, Obamacare lawlessness ) Cruz says electorate is dismayed by an administration that is targeting our Constitutional rights and they want leaders in the senate to stand up and defend the Constitution President Obama suggested he would make regulatory immigration changes shortly after the elections, virtually guaranteeing Republican fury

scare? And, with so many Republican seats in play, will the Democrats take over the Senate again in just two years?

33 With what result? Another two years of little progress on any legislation with the occasional debt ceiling crisis or government shutdown scare? And, with so many Republican seats in play, will the Democrats take over the Senate again in just two years? Larry Jacobs of the of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the U. of Minnesota says, It s going to be more of the same, but even more so It s going to be even more bitter, partisan, white knuckle politics

34 And then the presidential election Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Manchin, Martin O Malley, Cory Booker, George Clooney? Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, Scott Walker, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump?

35 Jon Fee Alston & Bird LLP 950 F Street, N.W. Washington, D.C jon.fee@alston.com

Congressional Scorecard

Congressional Scorecard 114th Congress First 2015 How to Judge a Member s Voting Record AFSCME selects a few roll-call votes from the hundreds cast by members of Congress every session. In choosing these