PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, and WEST VIRGINIA INDIANA

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1 Mike Braun (R) PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, and WEST VIRGINIA INDIANA The Hoosier State is one of a group of four states to hold its primary elections on May 8. We've selected the most competitive congressional districts in Indiana for coverage, as well as the Senate primary. PRIME-ARY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions! SENATE The Indiana Senate race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests this year. Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly's (D) seat has been judged by the Cook Political Report to be a "Tossup". There were three relatively unknown Republicans vying for the nomination from their party in Vice President Pence's home state. All three ran very conservative campaigns and were eager to tie themselves to the president. Senator Donnelly faced a tough election in 2012, winning on the heels of his opponent's gaffes. The pro-life Democrat holds a net approval rating of 14 points, and yet is one of the more vulnerable Democrats in 2018.

2 Mike Braun is a wealthy auto-parts businessman who primarily self-financed his campaign. He was briefly a state legislator in Dubois County in southwestern Indiana. Braun was a registered Democrat as of He comes in having the least experience in elected office, which could be an advantage in the general election against Sen. Donnelly. Braun took the lead with 41.2% of the vote. IN-02 Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index rates this district as an R+11. Senator Donnelly's former congressional district includes the cities of South Bend and Elkhart in north central Indiana. The Democratic primary here is crowded with challengers, believing that they can flip the district. Incumbent Jackie Walorski was first elected in 2012, was born in South Bend, Indiana and currently serves on the Ways and Means Committee. She is also focused on national security issues in Congress. Democrats believe that her seat is vulnerable. Mel Hall (D) Democrat Mel Hall is a former health-care executive and was by far the centrist candidate in the Democratic field and won with 36.5% of the vote. Mel spent seven years as a minister in Detroit. After his years as a pastor, he returned to Indiana to pursue a PhD in Data Science at Notre Dame and then joined the South Bend-based health care firm Press Ganey. IN-04 Rep. Todd Rokita is vacating this seat after four terms to run for Senate. Rokita created a seven candidate Republican primary with his exit. Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index rates this district as an R+17. The district includes Crawfordsville, Lafayette, western Indianapolis suburbs and portions of Kokomo. Jim Baird (R) Jim Baird, an Animal Science PhD, rose to the top, winning with 36.4%

3 of the vote. Baird has served the Indiana House of Representatives since He also served in the Army during the Vietnam War. IN-06 Rep. Luke Messer (R) is stepping down after three terms as Representative to run for Senate. Messer took Mike Pence's original House seat in 2013 after Pence was elected governor and was elected president of the House Republican freshman class in the 113th Congress. Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index rates this district as an R+18. The district takes up large portions of eastern and southeastern Indiana and encompasses Columbus, Muncie, and Richmond in addition to suburbs of Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Greg Pence (R) While the vice president's older brother, Greg Pence, has kept a low profile in this race, he quietly gathered a majority in the solid GOP district. Pence won in a landslide with 65.3% of the vote in a crowded field. IN-09 Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index rates this district as an R+13. The district is in south-central and south-east Indiana and boasts Bloomington, Johnson County, and some of the Louisville metro area. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted this district in Rep. Trey Hollingsworth is a Tennessean who moved to Indiana in September 2015 before declaring his 2016 candidacy in the district and is now campaigning for his first re-election. In his campaign he has emphasized his conservative Christian values in addition to not being a career politician. Liz Watson (D) Liz Watson is a labor attorney and a former labor policy advisor to congressional Democrats. Her family has Indiana roots and she has emphasized her work for progressive causes as well as Senator Sanders during her campaign. She won the primary with 66.4% of the vote.

4 NORTH CAROLINA As North Carolina has no Senate or gubernatorial races this year, the campaigns for the House of Representatives have taken center stage. Last night, North Carolina became the first state of 2018 to see a sitting Congressman fall in a primary challenge. NC-02 The district has a Cook PVI score of R+7 and is categorized as "likely Republican." North Carolina's 2 nd Congressional district, which was previously held by former Congresswoman Renee Ellmers, encompasses suburban Raleigh and Franklin and Harnett counties. Following yesterday's primary, incumbent George Holding defended his seat from first-time runner and Iraq War veteran, Allen Chesser by 76%, placing him on the general election ballot in November. Although having served in Congress since 2013, Holding will defend his seat for his second term representing the newly court-ordered 2 nd district - which contains a significant portion of his former 13 th district. Linda Coleman (D) With 56% of the vote, the former state representative Linda Coleman defeated contenders Wendy May and Ken Romley in a race to ultimately unseat incumbent George Holding in November. With notable political experience, Coleman has been elected three times to the North Carolina House of Representatives, and won the Democratic party's nomination for lieutenant governor of North Carolina in a race she ultimately lost in the general by a slim margin of just 0.2%. NC-09 The district has a Cook PVI score of R+8 and is categorized as "lean Republican." The district has a stark urban and rural contrast, as it covers a portion of Charlotte's suburban Mecklenberg County and also stretches along the rural South Carolina line to the I-95 corridor.

5 Mark Harris (R) Arguably the biggest upset in Tuesday's multistate primary, Mark Harris defeated incumbent Robert Pittenger by a narrow margin of 2%. It represented the first House incumbent ousted in the primary process. Tying him to the Washington "swamp", Harris picked up most traction in his criticism over Pittenger's vote for the $1.3 trillion spending bill that President Trump signed in March. The Winston-Salem native has spent most of his career as a pastor, including senior pastor at First Baptist Church Charlotte, and has previously served as president of the North Carolina Baptist Convention. Dan McCready (D) Marine Corp veteran, Dan McCready defeated Christian Cano with an overwhelming 82% of the vote. With highprofile endorsements from the Blue Dogs, Vote Vets and New Dems, the Charlotte native is a top Democratic prospect to flip NC-09 in this competitive seat against Mark Harris in November. NC-13 The central North Carolina district covering Charlotte and Winston- Salem in central has a Cook PVI score R+6 and is categorized as "lean Re publican." The freshman Freedom Caucus member and incumbent, Ted Budd, ran uncontested and will defend his seat for a second term against Kathy Manning in November. Kathy Manning (D) Greensboro resident Kathy Manning secured 70% of the vote in last night's primary, and will face Ted Budd in November. A lawyer and local businesswoman by trade, Manning has held leadership positions in her community through numerous organizations that help provide job retraining, mortgage assistance, food and healthcare. OHIO In addition to the House races previewed below, Ohio also will host a competitive gubernatorial race and a Senate race that will likely result in a Democratic hold in November. President Trump won the state by an 8-point margin in In the Senate race, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) will face Rep. Jim Renacci (R), who currently represents Ohio's 16th District. Ohio's gubernatorial race will see a repeat of 2010's race for

6 Attorney General. Richard Cordray (D), the former head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, bested former Rep. Dennis Kucinich to secure the Democratic nomination. Current Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (R) came out ahead in a stacked field. Cordray and DeWine will both run to replace current Gov. John Kasich, who is termlimited. OH-01 Ohio's 1 st Congressional District is currently represented by Steve Chabot, who is running for his 12 th term in Congress - however, just his 6 th consecutive term after temporarily losing his seat in His district includes Warren and Hamilton counties, and he carried the district by nearly 20 points in Aftab Pureval (D) Aftab Pureval, currently the Hamilton County Clerk, will represent the Democratic Party against incumbent Steve Chabot after running unopposed for the nomination. Pureveal is a first generation American whose parents immigrated from India, and formerly worked in the Department of Justice as a Special Assistant U.S. Attorney. This will be a tough challenge for Pureval, as the district voted for President Trump by seven points in OH-10 Michael Turner is running to defend his seat in Ohio's 10 th congressional district and hopes to win his ninth consecutive term in Congress. This southern district, which includes Fayette, Greene, and Montgomery counties, was won by Turner in 2016 by 32 points. Theresa Gasper (D) Theresa Gasper edged out Robert Klepinger for the nomination Tuesday night, by a margin of 67% to 25%. Gasper, a successful business owner and fourth generation Daytonian, is running on a platform to address transparency and accountability in government, lower healthcare cost, and to properly address the opioid crisis facing Ohio.

7 OH-12 In October, Rep. Patrick Tiberi announced that he would retiring before the end of his current term to chair the Ohio Business Roundtable; leaving a vacancy and triggering a special election. The winner of the special election, slated for August 7, will serve out the remainder of his term, but must run again in November should they wish to seek reelection. This central Ohio district includes the suburbs around Columbus - including Dublin and Mansfield - and President Trump carried this district by 11 points in Despite Trump's success in 2016, this election is rated by Cook Political Report as a "toss-up". Troy Balderson (R) Troy Balderson, an Ohio state senator, was supported by Pat Tiberi, in both elections. Balderson edged out fellow primary candidate Melanie Leneghan by a slim margin of 29.2% to 28.2%, and is running on a tradition Republican platform. Danny O'Connor (D) Danny O'Connor, the Franklin County Recorder, will represent the Democratic Party in both the special election in August and the general election in November after winning both primaries Tuesday night. O'Connor, who was an attorney before being elected, is running on a platform to expand health coverage and to work with Republicans in a bipartisan manner to "make our government work again." OH-14 Ohio's 14 th Congressional District is represented by Dave Joyce, the 3-term congressman and former Geauga County Prosecutor. The district lies in Northeastern Ohio along the coast of Lake Erie and includes Lake, Ashtabula, and Geauga counties. This county is 74% urban and 90% Caucasian, and voted for President Trump in 2016 after voting for President Obama in the previous two presidential elections. Betsy Rader (D) Betsy Rader will represent the Democratic Party after running unopposed in the primary. Rader, an attorney who specializes in employment discrimination, hopes to compete with Joyce in a district he carried by 25 points in

8 November Despite her uphill battle, Rader has proven an effective fundraiser, and is a lifelong resident of Ohio with a degree from Yale Law School, which makes her a formidable candidate. OH-16 This race will not feature an incumbent as current Rep. Jim Renacci has won the Ohio Republican primary for U.S. Senate and can no longer defend his seat. This leaves a vacancy in Ohio's 16 th District - which includes Wayne, Stark, Medina, and Portage counties - and challengers from both parties will get a chance to run for a seat Renacci carried by over 30 points in Susan Palmer (D) Susan Palmer, a healthcare professional and medical sales representative will be the Democratic nominee in the general election. Palmer is running heavily a platform to fix American's healthcare system and to curb gun violence in the country. Anthony Gonzalez (R) Anthony Gonzalez, the former football star for Ohio State and the Indianapolis Colts, will represent the Republican Party in this race after winning the primary Tuesday night. Gonzalez was supported strongly by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce - who spent $300,000 to run ads on his behalf in the district. WEST VIRGINIA West Virginia will be an interesting case study for how much the president's popularity will impact local Republican races. The President remains exceedinglypopular in the state- with a 62% approval rating, one of the highest in the country. SENATE

9 In 2012, Senator Joe Manchin (D) cruised to victory, winning more than 79% of the vote. However, this year's election is likely to be much more competitive and many prognosticators have Manchin as one of the most endangered Democrats on the ballot in November. Manchin has had to balance party loyalty and representing his constituents, who voted overwhelmingly for the president. His campaign is focused on healthcare, jobs, and the ongoing opioid crisis, which has hit West Virginia especially hard. Patrick Morrisey (R) In a race that had DC-Republicans holding their breath, Patrick Morrisey emerged as the victor last night, earning 35% of the vote. He defeated Rep. Evan Jenkins and the controversial felon/coal baron Don Blankenship to be the Republican candidate in November. Morrisey is the current West Virginia Attorney General, and ran as a conservative outsider. However, he is likely to have to defend his record as having close ties to drug companies and having previously run for Congress in New Jersey, where he is originally from. WV-03 This is an open seat, as 2-term Congressman Evan Jenkins (R) vacated the seat in a failed bid to run for the U.S. Senate. Although the Partisan Voter Index rating of the 3rd District (R+23) would indicate that it is unlikely to be competitive, there is some sense that the Democratic candidate may out perform that rating. President Trump won the district by 49 points in Richard Ojeda (D) Richard Ojeda currently serves in the West Virginia state Senate. He has been public in his vote for President Trump in 2016, though now he says that the President has not done enough to keep his promises. Ojeda's strong support for gun rights and organized labor are in step with this district, and he has campaigned as a populist Democrat. He retired at the rank of Major from the U.S. Army and saw combat in Iraq. Carol Miller (R) Carol Miller emerged from the crowded Republican primary field. She currently represents the 16th District in the West Virginia House of Delegates. Miller has a background in real estate and owns the Swann Ridge Bison Farm; she is the daughter of former Ohio Congressman Samuel Devine.

10 Prepared by Jacob Sztraicher, Owen Taylor, Sam Lane and Casie Daugherty Prime Policy Group