IN POLITICS, WHAT YOU KNOW IS LESS IMPORTANT THAN WHAT YOU D LIKE TO BELIEVE

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1 For immediate release, April 12, pages Contact: Dan Cassino ; IN POLITICS, WHAT YOU KNOW IS LESS IMPORTANT THAN WHAT YOU D LIKE TO BELIEVE Fairleigh Dickinson University, April 12, 2017 Doubt about President Trump prevails in the minds of Garden State residents, according to the most recent statewide survey of adults from Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind. More than two-thirds (69%) believe Donald Trump is not releasing his tax returns because they would show his close financial ties to political business figures in Russia. Forty-four percent believe this to be possibly, with a full quarter (25%) who believe the statement is definitely. In general, voters remain willing to endorse unfounded theories that are in line with their political views, with increased knowledge seemingly making them more, rather than less, likely to believe things that just haven t been proven. Significantly fewer residents believe other empirically unconfirmed statements. For example, only a third (32%) believe it s definitely or possibly that President Obama remains untruthful about his background and early life, thirty percent believe President Obama s supporters committed significant voters fraud in the 2012 elections, and 37 percent believe there s some truth to the claim that childhood vaccines cause autism. People tend to hold false beliefs because it helps them reinforce their own partisan beliefs, said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson, and an analyst for the poll. When people are motivated to believe something, facts just don t matter very much. Across questions related to Presidents Trump and Obama, partisan differences prevail. Four-in-ten (39%) Democrats believe it s definitely that President Trump is hiding a close connection to political and business figures in Russia. Four percent of Republicans and 19 percent of independents believe the same. When it comes to President Obama, although only three percent of Democrats believe he s definitely hiding information about his birthright and early life, more than eight times that number (25%) of Republicans find the former president untruthful. And, as for voter fraud in the 2012 elections, 21 percent of Republicans believe the Obama campaign definitely played fast and loose, as compared with only a seventh of that number (3%) of Democrats. Of course, not all conspiracy beliefs are political. Five percent of New Jersey voters say that there is definitely a proven link between childhood vaccines and autism, with another 32 percent saying that s it is possible that a link has been proven. These figures are about the same as national figures, measured last April ( in which seven percent of Americans thought that a link had definitely been proven. In addition to questions about beliefs in unproven theories, respondents on the poll were also asked a series of five political knowledge items. These ask about knowledge of figures in the news (including Paul Ryan, Rex Tillerson and Theresa May) and facts about issues and government, like which party has more seats in the House, and the contents of the recent House bill aimed at repealing parts of Obamacare. On average, New Jersey voters answered 3.4 of these questions correctly, with Democrats and Republicans being about equally accurate (3.5 and 3.6 items correctly, respectively), and independents lagging behind, with only about 2.9 questions correct, on average. It s not surprising that partisans pay closer attention to the news than independents, said Cassino. Politics is like baseball: if you don t care who wins, why would you bother watching the game? Higher levels of political knowledge a measure of attention paid to the news and world events does not help individuals sort fact from fiction on political beliefs. Among Republicans, for instance, higher levels of political knowledge are correlated with greater certainty that Obama is hiding information about his background and early life. 1

2 Among Democrats, higher levels of political knowledge correlate with more certainty that Trump s taxes would show his links to Russian interests. In politics, what people want to believe is almost more important than the facts at hand, said Cassino. When politics motivates people to believe something, people with more information do a better job of finding ways to justify that belief. The results for belief that the alleged, unfounded link between autism and childhood vaccines has been proven also highlight the extent to which political views distort the ability of Americans to tell fact from fiction. As the autismvaccine link is not a politically charged view, individuals who pay more attention to the news are more likely to know that there is no proven link. On average, individuals who said that there is definitely a link answered 2.7 out of the 5 knowledge questions correctly. Those who said that the link was possible answered 3.1 questions correctly. Those who said that there was definitely not a link answered 3.7 questions correctly. This is the pattern we d generally expect to see for false beliefs, said Cassino. When politics doesn t get in the way, people who pay attention to the world are pretty good at sorting fact from fiction. Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: Radio actualities at For more information, please call Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone March 22-26, 2017 among a random sample of 816 adults in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 448 interviews were conducted on landlines and 368 were conducted on cellular telephones. The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University. PublicMind recently received an A rating from statistician Nate Silver s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in PublicMind s A rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F. PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings. 2

3 Tables Donald Trump is not releasing his tax returns because they would show his close financial ties to political and business figures in Russia PK* Avg Possibly DK (vol) Refused (vol) President Obama is hiding important information about his background and early life PK* Avg Possibly DK (vol) Refused (vol) President Obama s supporters committed significant voter fraud in the 2012 elections PK* Avg Possibly DK (vol) Refused (vol) It has been proven that childhood vaccines cause autism PK* Avg Possibly DK (vol) Refused (vol)

4 To the best of your knowledge, does the health care bill that was recently introduced in the US House of Representatives by Republicans repeal all of the Affordable Care Act, also knowns as ObamaCare, some of the Affordable Care Act, or does it repeal none of the Affordable Care Act? Repeals all Repeals some Repeals none DK (vol) Refused (vol) To the best of your knowledge, what is Paul Ryan s current position? Is he State Vice- President Speaker of the House Senate Majority Leader DK (vol) Refused (vol) To the best of your knowledge, what is Rex Tillerson s current position? Is he State Senate Majority Leader Vice- President Prime Minister of the United Kingdom DK (vol) Refused (vol)

5 To the best of your knowledge, what is Theresa May s current position? Is she Commerce Senate Majority Leader Energy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom DK (vol) Refused (vol) Which party currently has the most seats in the US Senate? Republicans Democrats DK (vol) Refused (vol) Average number of correct responses to political knowledge questions (range from 0-5)

6 Question wording and order US1 through US5 released March 6 US6 and US7 withheld NJ1 through NJ6 released March 4 NEWS1 through NEWS2 withheld For each of the following statements, please tell me whether it is definitely, possibly, or definitely not. [rotate CONS1 through CONS4] CONS1 Donald Trump is not releasing his tax returns because they would show his close financial ties to political and business figures in Russia. CONS2 President Obama is hiding important information about his background and early life CONS3 President Obama s supporters committed significant voter fraud in the 2012 elections CONS4 It has been proven that childhood vaccines cause autism 1 2 Possibly 3 ROTATE PK SERIES PK1 To the best of your knowledge, does the health care bill that was recently introduced in the US House of Representatives by Republicans repeal all of the Affordable Care Act, also known as ObamaCare, some of the Affordable Care Act, or does it repeal none of the Affordable Care Act? 1 Repeals All 2 Repeals Some [correct response] 3 Repeals None PK2 To the best of your knowledge, what is Paul Ryan s current position? Is he 1 State 2 Vice-President 3 Speaker of the House 4 Majority Leader of the Senate PK3 To the best of your knowledge, what is Rex Tillerson s current position? Is he 1 State 2 Majority Leader of the Senate 3 Vice-President 4 Prime Minister of the United Kingdom PK4 To the best of your knowledge, what is Theresa May s current position? Is she 1 Commerce 2 Majority Leader of the Senate 3 Energy 4 Prime Minister of the United Kingdom 6

7 PK5 Which party currently has the most seats in the Senate? [rotate options] 1 Republicans [correct response] 2 Democratsdf 3 Don t Know 4 Refused (vol) Sample characteristics (weighted) Gender Male 49% Female 51% Age % % % Refused 1% Race White 64% African American 13% Hispanic 15% Asian 5% Other/Refused 3% Party (with leaners) Dem 51% Ind/DK/Refused 21% Repub 28% 7