LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No
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- Gwenda Woods
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1 1. If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, or Trump? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS... Tea CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Cruz 20% 31% 38% 17% 12% 16% 25% 18% 21% Kasich Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Cruz 24% 21% 18% Kasich Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Cruz Kasich Trump Made up 75% 57% 78% 80% Might change DK/NA If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS... LIBERAL... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes No Clinton 54% 43% 51% 61% 46% 59% 54% 54% Sanders SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Wht Blk Clinton 36% 60% 73% 48% 66% Sanders SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA
2 2A. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Tot Clinton Sanders Made up 78% 80% 76% Might change DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 53% 10% 87% 44% 47% 59% 55% 57% 50% 54% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 43% 67% 48% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 46% 4% 82% 33% 40% 52% 50% 49% 41% 49% Kasich SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 38% 61% 38% Kasich SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA
3 5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 53% 10% 88% 44% 45% 60% 58% 57% 48% 53% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 44% 68% 46% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 56% 14% 86% 52% 53% 60% 65% 60% 51% 53% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 50% 67% 49% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 47% 6% 79% 38% 44% 50% 57% 53% 40% 42% Kasich SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 42% 58% 37% Kasich SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA
4 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 56% 12% 87% 53% 51% 61% 69% 61% 49% 52% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 51% 67% 49% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 45% 7% 78% 33% 39% 50% 40% 47% 45% 51% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 34% 58% 43% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 54% 18% 74% 56% 53% 54% 65% 59% 47% 49% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 51% 58% 51% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED
5 11. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 26% 49% 10% 30% 32% 21% 24% 30% 26% 24% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 31% 19% 30% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 43% 59% 31% 48% 48% 38% 27% 46% 46% 51% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 45% 36% 50% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 30% 68% 8% 30% 38% 23% 18% 30% 36% 30% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 33% 20% 40% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED
6 This RDD telephone survey was conducted from March 22-29, 2016 throughout the state of New York. Responses are reported for 1,667 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 457 likely New York Republican primary voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, and 693 likely New York Democratic primary voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Margins of sampling error for additional subgroups are listed in tables below. Surveys are conducted in English or Spanish dependent on respondent preference with live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones. All data was collected and tabulated by the Quinnipiac University Poll. PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION WORDING - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? REGISTERED VOTERS PARTY IDENTIFICATION Republican 23% Democrat 42 Independent 28 Other/DK/NA 6 PHONE DISTRIBUTION Cell only 25% Land Line only 9 Both, cmp from cell sample 14 Both, cmp from land sample 53 RACE White 66% Black 14 Hispanic 10 Other/DK/NA 10 REGISTERED VOTERS... Weighted Percentage 100% 23% 42% 28% 47% 53% 21% 24% 28% 22% Unweighted n 1, MoE (+/-%) Weighted Percentage 39% 38% 23% Unweighted n MoE (+/-%) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS... Tea CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Weighted Percentage 100% 18% 22% 33% 42% 55% 45% 38% 62% Unweighted n MoE (+/-%) Weighted Percentage 27% 43% 24% Unweighted n MoE (+/-%)
7 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS... LIBERAL... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes No Weighted Percentage 100% 25% 23% 48% 39% 61% 44% 56% Unweighted n MoE (+/-%) Wht Blk Weighted Percentage 36% 37% 23% 53% 24% Unweighted n MoE (+/-%) METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS Dual frame landline and cell phone samples are generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures by Survey Sampling International (SSI). Both the landline and cellular phone samples are stratified by Census division according to area code. Land line numbers are scheduled for 5+ call attempts and cell phone numbers are scheduled for 4+ call attempts. When calling landlines interviewers ask to speak with the adult member of the household having the next birthday. If that person is not available a call back is scheduled for a better time to speak with that person. Interviews are conducted on cell phones with both cell only and dual owner respondents. The complete land and cell sample is weighted to National Health Interview Survey estimates for [land only/cell only/dual owner] households. Questions are asked of registered voters as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question. Questions are numbered as asked with additional questions found in successive releases. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census or American Community Survey data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by region, gender, age, education and race. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect. Quinnipiac Polls are funded entirely by Quinnipiac University. The Quinnipiac University Poll is part of the Department of Public Affairs. Contact pollinginstitute@quinnipiac.edu for additional information or call
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