Election 2016 Wrap-up: After the First 180 Days

Transcription

1 Election 2016 Wrap-up: After the First 180 Days Dave Robertson, University of Missouri-St Louis My Standpoint 1

2 Today s Agenda 1. Political Polarization 2. The 2016 Election 3. The Trump Administration 4. The Trump Policy Agenda 5. The Fundamentals of the 2018 elections 1. Political Polarization How have we become so divided? 2

3 "Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines than at any point in the last two decades." "these divisions are greatest among those who are the most engaged and active in the political process. that is, [those voters] who most strongly influence the choice of candidates (by voting in primaries) Once upon a time, there were conservatives, moderates and liberals in both political parties Texans gave 87% of their vote to liberal Democrat Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 Mississippians gave 97% for FDR California, New York and Massachusetts all voted for conservative Ronald Reagan in

4 The New Deal Democratic Party Coalition: Industrial workers, liberals, northern African-Americans, & Southerners By the 1960s, Republicans actively sought to win over the South to the Republican party They succeeded 4

5 The Reagan Coalition: Religious conservatives, economic libertarians, national security hawks, & Southerners Since the 1980s Conservatives have sorted themselves into the Republican Party Liberals have themselves into the Democratic Party 5

6 Conservatives in the South and rural areas have moved to the Republicans The Southern & rural shift has added conservatives to the Republican Party They transformed the South from a strong Democratic region to a strong Republican region, making the Republican Party more uniformly conservative These people, who were once Democrats, became Republicans: % of State governors, US senators, and state legislative houses controlled by Democrats in the South (excluding FL & VA) 100%

7 Liberal and moderate areas of New England, New York and the West, along with some suburbs, have left the Republican Party, and have become more Democratic The political realignment of the South & rural areas has removed conservatives from the Democratic Party and added liberals & moderates Making the Democratic Party more uniformly liberal These people, who were once Republicans, became Democrats: Polarized Emotions 7

8 A pair of surveys asked Americans: in 1960, whether they would be displeased if their child married someone outside their political party, and, in 2010, would be upset if their child married someone of the other party. Maria and Arnold, 1986 In 1960, about 5 % of Americans expressed a negative reaction to party intermarriage In 2010, about 40 % did (Republicans about 50%, Democrats about 30%). 2011: Before {Herman] Cain s May announcement to run for President, Godfather s Pizza was on more or less on equal perception tracking with all three parties. 8

9 Emotions are even more polarized this year Cultural Change: The basic dividing line? 9

10 Those who are more engaged in politics are even more polarized These people who vote in primaries & choose candidates These are people who vote in off-year elections like 2014 and 2018 elections for Congress, a majority of governors, and most state legislators The United States is home to 324 million people. Each square here represents 1 million people. 60 million people voted in the primaries: But Just 14 % of eligible adults just 9 % of the whole nation voted for either Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton. 10

11 A deeply polarized electorate decided the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald Trump and a Republican majority in Congress Questions & Comments? 2. The 2016 Election 11

12 Donald Trump the first U.S. President with no experience in public office A History-Making Choice Hillary Clinton the first woman to serve as U.S. President Political Polarization 12

13 The candidates did little to improve their popularity during the campaign Unforced errors More than anything else about Clinton her occasional tin ear for politics, her seeming inability to connect with large crowds, her ultracautiousness it is the trust issue that could yet cost her a general election she should otherwise win, given her opponent s vulnerabilities. Plainly put, Clinton herself has kept the issue alive over 25 years of public life, with longwinded, defensive, obfuscating answers to questions that in politics, if not in law cry out for a crisp yes or no reply. 13

14 The October surprise reinforced a lack of trust in Hillary Clinton Making History June

15 Results 15

16 Trump won the electoral vote by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won those states by about 80,000 votes in total. Trump is the fifth president to lose the popular vote and win the electoral college (including JQ Adams, Hayes, Harrison, GW Bush) Clinton: 65,844,610 votes, or 48.2% of the total vote. Trump: 62,979,636 votes, or 46.1% of the total vote. How did political analysts feel the morning after the election? 16

17 Final national polling averages (Note: This is an average of many scientific polls I am skeptical about any one poll) 2012: 2016: 17

18 Party Loyalty: Most people who identified as Republicans or Democrats voted for their party s nominee We didn t fully appreciate that Hillary was better at unifying and turning out Republicans than she was at turning out Democrats. Hillary Clinton was better at unifying and turning out Republicans than Trump was at turning out Democrats Which counties voted more Republican or more Democratic than in 2012? 18

19 90% of those who thought Clinton was unqualified voted for Trump Almost 1 in 5 voters who thought Trump was unqualified voted for Trump anyway 19

20 But either President-elect Trump or Clinton was going to start their term as a very unpopular president For example, 20

21 On January 20, we were ready to begin a new chapter in the American journey 3. The Trump Administration 21

22 22

23 Leadership style 23

24 Personnel Prospective nominees must win approval from competing camps inside the White House "Around the table for weekly hiring meetings are chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon, representing the populist wing; Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, leading the establishment Republican wing; White House Counsel Don McGahn; Mike Pence s chief of staff, Josh Peacock; and Jared Kushner, representing a business-oriented faction

25 June 7, 2017 July 19,

26 The Russia Question 26

27 Congressional Republicans, with a few exceptions, are far more skeptical of Russia than Trump has been during and since the campaign, when he praised Putin and touted the benefits of friendlier relations. February 14 May 18 July 6 27

28 28

29 Mueller has submitted a budget and quietly hired an all-star team that includes 15 Justice Department prosecutors. The main lines of inquiry: Russian meddling in the presidential election; whether anyone inside the United States conspired to help; and whether any wrongdoing has been committed in the surprise firing of FBI Director James Comey, who said he believed he was let go to relieve pressure on the Russia probe x July 20 Do Americans approve of the Trump presidency? 29

30 The public gives every president a honeymoon period But Trump was unpopular when he took office Every president faces a decay curve - Public approval goes downhill from the honeymoon period - Because no actual human can fulfill our expectations 30

31 Average of many scientific polls, July 20,

32 Trump voters (late April, 2017) Trump Approval rating at 93% with these voters 42% strongly approve, 51% somewhat approve. 2/3 believed the economy has been improving since Trump took office. Yet the focus group respondents frequently expressed concern about how things in the country are going, using words like terrible, upheaval, polarization, chaotic, and volatile to describe the state of the country. 19% cited Twitter as the top reason they feel unsure about their vote for Trump Only 5% of respondents said that Trump was the most responsible for the failed initial attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare 32

33 Polarization, already bad, is getting worse 33

34 So how s the policy agenda going? 4. The Trump Policy Agenda 34

35 The Big Promises Obamacare repeal A border wall Big cuts in domestic spending Big increases in the military budget a $1 trillion infrastructure program Major tax changes & cuts Promises for Day 1 New Supreme Court Justice Done Cancel many Obama executive orders Some Done Cut money to sanctuary cities Announced suspend immigration from terror-prone In the courts regions begin removing the more than 2 million Stepped up criminal illegal immigrants from the country 35

36 Day 1: Action to protect workers Approve infrastructure projects (Keystone) Done withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Done renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw Developing label China a currency manipulator Reversed position identify and end all foreign trading abuses Studies begun that unfairly impact American workers lift restrictions on $50 trillion dollars Overstated worth of shale, oil, natural gas & coal Cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate In the budget change programs Trump s 100 day action plan Promises Performance term limits on all members of Congress; DOA a hiring freeze on all federal employees imposed - until April a requirement that for every new federal cut way back regulation, 2 existing regulations must be dropped a 5 year-ban on White House & Congressional weaker than Obama s officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service; a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying But can grant a on behalf of a foreign government; waiver to anyone a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections. Already in place 36

37 The Big Legislative proposals Middle Class Tax Relief And Unlikely Simplification Act. American Energy & Infrastructure Act Unlikely Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act Very Unlikely The Trump Administration s first budget 37

38 Changes in Department budgets Realistically, the Federal government cannot touch 2/3 of its spending without causing BIG political problems 38

39 Balancing the budget, realistically, requires cut entitlements, cut military spending, or more revenues Of the more than $145 billion in discretionary federal grants provided in fiscal year 2016, at least 9.1 percent is proposed for elimination in the 2018 Trump budget 39

40 To reduce the deficit, you have to increase taxes, reduce spending, or both. Do Americans want to do these things? Not much Six in 10 Americans say they embrace major cuts to spending programs BUT 57% oppose major changes to Medicare and Social Security, 60% oppose major cuts in defense spending, Nearly 90% of Americans oppose higher taxes on the middle class. CNN/ORI Poll, November 18-20,

41 Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers rejected President Donald Trump's proposed budget blueprint even before it was formally released Tuesday, saying that the cuts are too steep and the accounting is too unrealistic. July 19, 2017 Congress has until mid-october to raise the statutory borrowing limit or the United States will risk defaulting on its debt obligations, the Congressional Budget Office said... What's the debt ceiling again? It's a cap set by Congress on how much the federal government may have in outstanding debt. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. June

42 Only 16 House Republicans who are currently in office backed the last clean debt hike, and few of them will say they are certain to support it this year. If the debt ceiling is raised with a clean hike a distinct possibility given Democratic demands and the narrow, 52- seat majority for the GOP in the Senate Republicans will need at least 24 members of their own conference to back a clean debt bill in the House. 42

43 To lower tax rates without adding to budget deficits, Republicans plan to bank on revenue created by economic growth and three big money-raising ideas: introducing a socalled border-adjustment tax proposal, scrapping deductions for business interest and repealing the state and local tax deduction for individuals. if a tax bill emerges, it will land amid a storm of investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, which have swept up the Trump administration and distracted lawmakers. Lawmakers also can't complete the tax bill until they adopt a budget, a process that will force them to confront deep divisions within the GOP over spending priorities and deficits. 43

44 Congress wants to use reconciliation to pass the 2018 budget and tax cuts, but they cannot start it until they pass the budget resolution is completed. That resolution depends on resolving health care. [Repealing the ACA first] would give them extra money to play around with for tax reform. The idea is health care will improve the baseline and pave the way for the tax overhaul, Paul Howard, senior fellow director in health policy at the Manhattan Institute, told FOX Business. 44

45 July 7,

46 Tuesday morning, July 18 Flashback to Polarization A Republican who votes against the bill could lose a primary election to a more conservative challenger --- But if the Republican votes for the bill, he or she could be swept away in the general election by a Democrat. 46

47 There s no budget, no funding level for the fall and little talk between the two parties on how to avoid a shutdown and debt default in late summer or early fall, worrying Senators in both parties. I m very frustrated... we re going to do all these things by Sept. 30? Give me a break. We re going to cut taxes, pass health care, set aside sequestration? said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). And every day, elections get closer and closer 47

48 5. The Fundamentals of the 2018 Elections An off year or midterm election: All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives 33 seats in the U.S Senate 36 governors + hundreds of seats in state legislatures The president s political party usually loses seats in the mid-term elections Since 1842 the President s party has lost seats in 40 of 43 midterms the exceptions being 1934, 1998 and : 2010: President Trump is a Republican, so the Republicans are likely to lose seats 2018 especially if he is unpopular But most incumbents who run win reelection! (so watch for retirements!) 48

49 Sometimes elections are a strong wave against the president s party US Congress, 2014: Republicans gained 8 Senate seats and won a Senate majority And added 12 House seats to their majority States: Republicans controlled the governor and both houses of the legislature in 25 states The Future Elections in 2017 &

50 Governor s Elections, Ohio Governor s Mansion, Bexley Mid-2017: Of the 50 governorships, Republicans hold 33, the most they ve held since Democrats have 16 and there is one independent 2017: Two Governorships are open, each party holds one Virginia State Capitol, Richmond Democrats probably have a slight edge in Virginia right now Right now, Democrats have an advantage in New Jersey 50

51 2018 Open Governorships (so far): 4 Democrats and 14 Republican 51

52 2018 U.S. Senate Elections 52

53 The House of Representatives Watch the approval rating for the president among Independents 53

54 54

55 Sunday April

56 To Be Continued A former county elected official in Missouri Thanks very much! 56