1951. The Rana regime (in place since 1846) is overthrown and parliamentary democracy and a constitutional monarchy are introduced.

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1 Historical context of Danida s work in Bolivia, Mozambique, and Nepal Julian Caldecott, Danida Evaluation Day, 26 September 2017 Milestones Bolivia Mozambique Nepal 1st breakthrough The traditional system (in place since at least 1920) dominated by tin-mining and other interests is overthrown by the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) which introduces universal suffrage and carries out sweeping land reform, promotes rural education and nationalises the largest tin mines The colonial system (in place since around 1920) run by Portuguese-British-South African corporations and Portuguese settlers is abandoned after an anti-fascist revolution in Portugal in 1974, followed by independence for Angola, East Timor, Mozambique and Guinea- Bissau. A leftist Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) government led by Samora Machel is established in Mozambique The Rana regime (in place since 1846) is overthrown and parliamentary democracy and a constitutional monarchy are introduced. Reversal of 1st breakthrough A military coup is followed by a succession of US-backed but unstable military dictatorships Civil war begins between USSR/Cubabacked Frelimo and US/South Africa-backed Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo). Machel dies in 1986 and is replaced by Joaquim Chissano who introduces major changes ( from Marxism to capitalism ), and begins peace talks with Renamo, while the collapse of the USSR and transition to multi-racial democracy and ANC rule in South Africa in change the external context. The 1990 Constitution provides for a multi-party political system, market-based economy, and free elections in Mozambique Direct royal rule and the semi-feudal panchayat system are imposed. India and China fight a border war in 1962 (coinciding with the Cuban Missile Crisis), the outcome (with India supported by the USSR) is to stabilise the frontier and leave Nepal between the two sides. 2nd breakthrough Popular movements lead to the restoration of democracy. Social and human-rights reforms follow, but tin-prices collapse in 1985 triggering inflation and unemployment. Aggressive US The Rome General Peace Accords end the civil war, supported by a UN peace-keeping force. There is mass repatriation of refugees in Elections are held in 1994, 1999, A people s movement (Janandolan) leads to the restoration of constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy. Cautious reforms of a corrupt and centralised bureaucratic state follow,

2 backed coca eradication programmes alienate indigenous peoples, moderated by centre-left rule in , but protests continue. Privatisation and foreign investment programmes guided by the World Bank and IMF affect public services (including water) and major business sectors, leading to mass protests, temporary martial law in 2000, and reversal of some privatisations. 2004, 2009, 2014, all won credibly by Frelimo against mainly Renamo opposition, with much adaptation of election laws, processes, some legal challenges, and later a renewed Renamo insurrection in some areas. while externally the Cold War ends. A Maoist insurrection forces the pace of change, but is unable to take power due to a lack of decisive external intervention. Danida interventions by theme GDP per person in 1992 US$: $791 in 1992, $3,105 in 2016 (World Bank) GDP per person in 1992 US$: $163 in 1992, $382 in 2016 (World Bank) GDP per person in 1992 US$: $172 in 1992, $730 in 2016 (World Bank). (ESPS III ). (ESPS ). (ESAP , and NRREP ). Cleaner production and energy efficiency (ESPS I , ESPS II , and Sustainable NR Management and Climate Change ). Cleaner production and energy efficiency (none). Cleaner production and energy efficiency (Environment Sector Programme Support ). Urban/industrial environment (ESPS I , ESPS II , and Sustainable NR Management and Climate Change ). Urban/industrial environment (project support , EPS I , P , PDA , and PRODEM ). Urban/industrial environment (Environment Sector Programme Support ). Water and climate change adaptation (ESPS I , ESPS II , and Sustainable NR Management and Climate Change ). Water and climate change adaptation (EPS II ). Water and climate change adaptation (none). tenure security and local empowerment (ESPS I , ESPS II , Sustainable NR Management and Climate Change , Support to Indigenous Peoples Rights I & II tenure security and local empowerment (none). tenure security and local empowerment (Watershed Management Project , Community Forestry Training Project , Tree Improvement Programme ,

3 ). NARMSAP ). Fiscal, judicial and administrative reforms (Pro- Reforma , Pro-Justicia , and Promotion of Exercise of Rights and Access to Justice ). Agriculture/production PASA I & II , Sector Support , and Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth ). Education (Education Sector Programme I & II ). Fiscal, judicial and administrative reforms (Multiple programmes of support to statebuilding and governance , ProJustiça I , and ProJustiça II ). Agriculture/production (ADIPSA I & II , B2B 2001/2005-, and GEP ). Education (Programme Support to the Education Sector Strategic Plan and ). Fiscal, judicial and administrative reforms (Multiple programmes of support to peace, rights & governance, ). Agriculture/production (Support to NDDB and Dairy Development Plan , and Unnati IGP ). Education (BPEP I & II , EFAP , SESP , and support to SSRP ). Health (none). Health (Sector support I-V ). Health (none). Civil society (dual approach throughout). Civil society (no clear position). Civil society (close partnerships throughout). General Budget Support (none). General Budget Support (Joint macrofinancial programming , and G ). General Budget Support (none). Reversal of 2nd breakthrough National governance destabilised through indecisive elections and protests centred on exploitation of gas fields and associated issues of land rights and oppression of indigenous peoples in the historical context of silver and tin mining, and continuing resistance to coca eradication, water issues, corruption and military violence. Stable (see Notes 1 & 2); Renamo quiescent as Frelimo consolidates power Palace coup and direct royal rule. 3rd breakthrough Indigenous leader Evo Morales and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party are elected to power. A process to develop a new constitution begins. In 2008, rightist groups try Stable (see Notes 1 & 2); Renamo quiescent as Frelimo consolidates power Second Janandolan forces the king to restore democracy. Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed, ending the Maoist insurrection. Election of a Constituent Assembly, which abolishes the

4 to establish autonomy in wealthier regions through unilateral referendums (declared illegal), a recall referendum (defeated) and an attempted coup (thwarted). The new Constitution is approved by referendum in January monarchy (2008). Agreement of a new national Constitution (2015). Elections for leadership of the 744 Local Bodies (2017). Reversal of 3rd breakthrough 2010 (see Notes 1 & 2). The MAS-Morales government continues and the 2009 Constitution is implemented, creating a Plurinational State and requiring new structural legislation against political turbulence generated by various interest groups. Under pressure, increasingly, the GoB appeared to be adopting policies that ran in opposition to its professed commitments to the environment and indigenous values (i.e. caring for the Pachamama-Mother Earth). These centred on the strategy to promote extractive industries, in particular hydrocarbons. By 2010, there were clear signs that the land-reform policies pursued during Morales s first term were being wound down. (pp ). There were also water crises generated by catchment damage, progressive drought, and the El Niño. Stable (see Notes 1 & 2), except that Renamo remains strong in the centre of the country and in Nampula province in the north, driven by differences over sharing of the benefits of economic growth with the Renamo elites. The parties reached an agreement in September 2014 and general elections could take place in October [in which Renamo held the majority in three provincial assemblies in the centre region and tied with Frelimo in Nampula province in the north ]. However, Renamo s accusations that Frelimo committed fraud in the 2014 general elections reignited the military conflict, so negotiations were resumed, culminating in a cease-fire in December (p. 14). Stable (see Notes 1 & 2). Note 1: Potential sources of ongoing instability Unresolved issues of locally-accountable governance, decentralisation, ethnic competition for resources (including fossil fuels) and the distribution of costs and benefits from resource exploitation. Continued exclusion of Renamo areas and allies from the fruits of power. Excessive confidence in the exploitation of abundant coal and natural gas reserves over coming decades, without allowing for fossil fuels becoming unsaleable for climate change Parts of the Madheshi Terai are less aligned than the rest of the country with the 2015 constitutional settlement and could remain a source of political instability. The whole country is vulnerable to climate change effects (fire, glacier lake outburst 1 See also: Myles McCormick (2017) They lied : Bolivia's untouchable Amazon lands at risk once more (

5 Note 2: Stability. Increasing ecosystem damage linked to fossil fuel exploitation and mining. Vulnerability to drought, glacier melt, and other climate change effects. Erratic US relations, economic problems in Venezuela, and a compromised model of Bolivarian solidarity. reasons, or a managed transition from dependency on fossil-fuel energy/revenues. Beira and several other coastal cities including Maputo are very vulnerable to sealevel rise and sea-borne storms, and the hinterland is vulnerable to floods, droughts, and other climate change effects. floods, rain-fed flooding, etc.). In governance, stability is a condition in which there is peaceful compliance with the prevailing system by most of a country s inhabitants, regardless of its lawfulness, equitability or sustainability. To be stable, a system must, for an extended period, meet the needs and satisfy the aspirations of enough of its members to head off organised, large-scale opposition. Since needs and aspirations change over time with internal cultural, socioeconomic and ecological conditions, and can be affected by external context, stability requires adaptation to these changes. Since regimes tend to become more inflexible over time, due to the continuity and tiring of personnel and relationships, a system of governance must be reinvented from time to time, through decentralisation, elections, constitutional revisions, or revolutions. Periods of stability and reinvention offer different kinds of opportunity for improvements in lawfulness, equitability or sustainability to be introduced by governments, activists, oppositions, NGOs, and donors.