Democratization Introduction and waves
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1 Democratization Introduction and University College Dublin 18 January 2011
2
3 Outline
4 Democracies over time
5 Period Democracy Collapse (Huntington 1991, as cited in Kurzman 1998)
6 Transitions over time (Doorenspleet 2000: 398)
7 Democracies over time
8 Outline
9 Slow wave until 1920s.
10 Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc.
11 Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc. Competition first, participation later.
12 Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc. Competition first, participation later. Example: The Netherlands (1848)
13 The Netherlands Economic development = burghers
14 The Netherlands Economic development = burghers Burghers dissatisfied with financial situation Belgian conflict Textile industry subsidies Lack of income from Indonesia Lack of transparency
15 The Netherlands Economic development = burghers Burghers dissatisfied with financial situation Belgian conflict Textile industry subsidies Lack of income from Indonesia Lack of transparency No protection of new Protestant church
16 The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility
17 The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility 1840 New slightly more liberal constitution = king resigns Ne veut-on plus de moi? On n a qu à le dire; je n ai pas besoin d eux.
18 The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility 1840 New slightly more liberal constitution = king resigns 1845 Group of MPs propose constitutional reforms, but are rejected
19 The Netherlands Further economic problems around 1845: Potato harvest fails Food prices increase Unemployment on the rise Riots in the north
20 The Netherlands Further economic problems around 1845: Potato harvest fails Food prices increase Unemployment on the rise Riots in the north Liberal prime minister resigns considering new constitutional changes too limited
21 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe
22 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution
23 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution 1848 New constitution
24 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution 1848 New constitution 1860s Conflicts between king and parliament settle informal rules
25 The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population)
26 The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population) 1887 Constitutional change = ability
27 The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population) 1887 Constitutional change = ability 1894 Electoral campaign around suffrage rights Liberals in favour of extension Conservatives, Catholics, Anti-Revolutionaries against
28 The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910)
29 The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910) 1917 Constitutional change: men above 23 can vote (In exchange for Christian schools)
30 The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910) 1917 Constitutional change: men above 23 can vote 1919 Female suffrage
31 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy
32 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments
33 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments Competition first, participation later
34 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments Competition first, participation later Very slow transition ( )
35 Outline
36 After World War II.
37 After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization
38 After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization but also transitions in Latin America.
39 After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization but also transitions in Latin America. Example: Venezuela (1958)
40 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies
41 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms
42 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms 1936 General strike brutally suppressed; opposition stymied
43 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms 1936 General strike brutally suppressed; opposition stymied Economic, but not political reforms
44 Venezuela 1941 Medina succeeds López Further economic reform hindered by war
45 Venezuela 1941 Medina succeeds López Further economic reform hindered by war 1944 Elections won by democratic party 1945 Medina puts forward liberal Escalante as presidential candidate
46 Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead
47 Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead 1945 Opposition and junior officers overthrow Medina Junior ranks unhappy with cronyism and lack of military professionalism
48 Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead 1945 Opposition and junior officers overthrow Medina Junior ranks unhappy with cronyism and lack of military professionalism 1946 Junta implements new electoral law
49 Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers
50 Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers 1948 Military coup Restoration of 1936 constitution
51 Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers 1948 Military coup Restoration of 1936 constitution 1950 Junta leader assassinated for refusal to implement full dictatorship
52 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president
53 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment
54 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment Support from US government 1957 Referendum shows 85% support for president
55 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment Support from US government 1957 Referendum shows 85% support for president 1958 Massive demonstrations; Pérez flees
56 Venezuela 1958 Betancourt wins presidential elections
57 Venezuela 1958 Betancourt wins presidential elections More inclusive approach to government, including concessions to Conservatives Catholic Church Military
58 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military
59 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure
60 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure Role of oil and self-enrichment
61 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure Role of oil and self-enrichment Inclusive ( pacted?) solution
62 Outline
63 Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?).
64 Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?). Elections first, rule of law later (?)
65 Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?). Elections first, rule of law later (?) Examples: Spain (1975) & Indonesia (1998)
66 Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain
67 Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain Authoritarian / military regime, including Systematic suppression of dissident views Imprisonment of opponents Forced labour in prisons
68 Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain Authoritarian / military regime, including Systematic suppression of dissident views Imprisonment of opponents Forced labour in prisons 1969 Designates Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon as successor. Dies November 20, 1975.
69 Spain Carlos announces constitutional monarchy in coronation speech.
70 Spain Carlos announces constitutional monarchy in coronation speech. Elites divided in: Francoists Radical leftist opposition Reform-minded moderates (incl. king)
71 Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government.
72 Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government. Struggles with: Increase in ETA attacks Violent street protests and riots Wave of strikes in large industries and public sector Strengthening / unification of anti-francoist opposition
73 Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government. Struggles with: Increase in ETA attacks Violent street protests and riots Wave of strikes in large industries and public sector Strengthening / unification of anti-francoist opposition July 1977, forced to resign by king.
74 Spain Christian-democrat Suarez runs reform-minded government
75 Spain Christian-democrat Suarez runs reform-minded government 1977 First democratic elections 1978 New Spanish Constitution
76 Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions.
77 Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions Col Tejero of the Guardia Civil occupies the Congress of Deputies
78 Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions Col Tejero of the Guardia Civil occupies the Congress of Deputies The next day he surrenders to police
79 Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition
80 Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition Pacted transition - moderates cooperating
81 Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition Pacted transition - moderates cooperating Role of popular pressure
82 Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of.
83 Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of Implementation of guided Based on nationalism, religion, and communism
84 Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of Implementation of guided Based on nationalism, religion, and communism 1966 Military coup after supposed communist coup
85 Indonesia Dwifungsi of army: both defenders of the nation and as a social-political force in national development.
86 Indonesia Dwifungsi of army: both defenders of the nation and as a social-political force in national development. Pancasila: one God; civilized humanity; guided ; social justice.
87 Indonesia
88 Indonesia Economic crisis and waning popularity of president Student protests Megawati Sukarnoputri
89 Indonesia Economic crisis and waning popularity of president Student protests Megawati Sukarnoputri Students occupy parliament Ministers refuse to join new cabinet Army withdraws support (?)
90 Indonesia 1999 Parliamentary elections 2004 Presidential elections
91 Indonesia 1999 Parliamentary elections 2004 Presidential elections Rampant corruption Partial military reform
92 Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy
93 Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy Link popular pressure - elite actions
94 Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy Link popular pressure - elite actions Corruption and military reform as limits on consolidation
95 Outline
96 What do you think comparative politics is about?
97 Cases studies vs comparative
98 Cases studies vs comparative Small N vs large N
99 Cases studies vs comparative Small N vs large N Techniques and methodologies History Interviews Statistics Theory and models Formal theory
100 Reading questions Some questions you might ask when reading: Is the paper theoretical, empirical, or policy oriented?
101 Reading questions Some questions you might ask when reading: Is the paper theoretical, empirical, or policy oriented? If empirical, what theories or hypotheses are tested? If theoretical, what theories or hypotheses are posited?
102 Reading questions: empirical What cases are being studied? How many?
103 Reading questions: empirical What cases are being studied? How many? What methodologies have been used? On what evidence are the conclusions based?
104 Reading questions What are the main conclusions?
105 Reading questions What are the main conclusions? How does this relate to / compare with the other readings?
106 Outline
107 topic This course discusses the various theories explaining: why some countries make a transition to and others do not
108 topic This course discusses the various theories explaining: why some countries make a transition to and others do not and why some new democracies survive and others do not.
109 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of
110 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project
111 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project Research paper
112 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project Research paper Syllabus
113 Readings Background / textbook style Classics Applied, contemporary Example country
114 Readings: math Statistics Formal theory
115 Readings: math Statistics Formal theory Don t panic!
116 Assignments Reaction papers
117 Assignments Reaction papers = create groups
118 Assignments Reaction papers = create groups paper Deadline proposal: 22/3 Deadline: 26/4
119 Contact Newman Building, room F304 No regular office hours
120 Outline
121 Plagiarism
122 Plagiarism Details can be found in the syllabus.
123 References in text Transitions to have to be seen as a dynamic process (Rustow 1970). The divisions in political science are detrimental to scientific progress (Pye 1990: 3-4).
124 Quotations in text Thus, today, neither content nor method provides an essential core for the discipline as a whole (Pye 1990: 4).
125 References: article Pye, Lucian Political Science and the Crisis of Authoritarianism. American Political Science Review 84: 3-19.
126 References: book Shively, W. Phillips The craft of political research. 6th ed. London: Prentice-Hall.
127 References: internet Schafersman, Steven An Introduction to Science: Scientific thinking and the scientific method. downloaded 18 January 2008.
128 References: internet Schafersman, Steven An Introduction to Science: Scientific thinking and the scientific method. downloaded 18 January and make sure you have a print-out or copy saved.
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