Survey Conducted January 14-17,

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Ann Harrell
5 years ago
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1 Survey Conducted January 14-17,

2 Methodology 500 telephone interviews with likely November 2016 voters statewide in Arizona, along with an oversample of 200 in Congressional District 1, for an unweighted total of 703 interviews Conducted January 14-17, 2016 via landline and cell phones Margin of sampling error +/-4.4% at the 95% confidence interval for the statewide sample +/-6.2% for the Congressional District 1 sample Due to rounding, some percentages do not add up to 100% Selected comparisons to statewide survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies in June of

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4 Three-quarters approve of the National Park Service; attitudes toward others are mixed. Strng. Appr. Smwt. Appr. No Opin./NHO Smwt. Disapp. Strng. Disapp. The National Park Service 3 38% 18% 5% Appr. Disapp. 75% Governor Doug Ducey 15% 34% 20% 15% 1 49% 32% President Barack Obama 28% 18% 10% 43% 4 52% The Bureau of Land Management 13% 28% 32% 13% 13% 41% 2 Congresswoman Anne Kirkpatrick 10% 2 39% 13% 11% 3 24% Congressman Raúl Grijalva 11% 1 53% 8% 12% 28% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q1. I'd like to read you a list of some different individuals and agencies active in public life. Please indicate whether you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing at this time. 3

5 Support for national monuments in principle is overwhelming. Do you generally support or oppose the idea of designating protected lands as national monuments? Strongly support Somewhat support 24% 61% Support 85% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 4% Oppose 11% Don't know/na 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q4. 4

6 Nearly half believe more should be done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon. Thinking about the land, air, and water around Grand Canyon National Park, would you say that More needs to be done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon 48% Enough is being done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon 35% Too much is being done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon 5% Don't know/na 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q2. Thinking about the land, air, and water around Grand Canyon National Park, would you say that 5

7 This is slightly higher than in June 2009 January 2016 More needs to be done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon Enough is being done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon Too much is being done to protect the land, air, and water around the Grand Canyon 5% 35% 43% 5% 35% 48% Don't know/na 1 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q2. Thinking about the land, air, and water around Grand Canyon National Park, would you say that 6

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9 Introducing the Monument The Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument would provide permanent federal protection for, and ban all new uranium mines on more than a million acres of public land surrounding Grand Canyon National Park. It would also protect hundreds of springs on both the North and South Rims of Grand Canyon that provide wildlife habitat, contribute to the Grand Canyon watershed, and feed the Colorado River. This land is home to more than 3,000 ancient Native American sites, as well as sacred sites like Red Butte. National Monument status would allow public use for hiking, photography, school trips, some biking and grazing on these lands, while prohibiting development and mining. Q6. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? 8

10 Four in five Arizonans support establishing the Monument. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? Strongly support Somewhat support 22% 58% Support 80% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Oppose 14% Don't know/na 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q6. 9

11 Voters in the First Congressional District are equally supportive. All Arizonans Congressional District 1 Strongly support Somewhat support 22% 58% Support 80% 22% 5 Support 78% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Oppose 14% 12% Oppose 19% DK/NA/Refused 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q6. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? 10

12 This is slightly higher than found in another recent poll of Arizonans, which used slightly different language. 100% Support Oppose 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% State of the Rockies Poll FM3 Poll Q6. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? 11

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans support it, as do more

Initial Support by Party Strongly Support Somewhat Support

% of Sample Democrats 7 18% 95% 30% Independents 60% 24%

13 Nearly two-thirds of Republicans support it, as do more than four in five Independents and Dems. Initial Support by Party Strongly Support Somewhat Support DK/NA Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Supp. % of Sample Democrats 7 18% 95% 30% Independents 60% 24% 5% 84% 32% Republicans 42% 23% 8% 14% 13% 65% 38% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q6. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? 12

14 A majority of sportsmen strongly support the proposed monument. Initial Support by Sportsmen Strongly Support Somewhat Support DK/NA Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Supp. % of Sample Sportsmen 51% 25% 11% 7 23% Not Sportsmen 61% 21% 5% 82% 74% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q6. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? 13

Nearly two-thirds of Latinos and voters of color strongly support the

Initial Support by Ethnicity Strongly Support Somewhat Support DK/NA

% of Sample Latinos 65% 20% 9% 8 1 White Voters 5 21% 8% 79% 72% Voters of

15 Nearly two-thirds of Latinos and voters of color strongly support the monument. Initial Support by Ethnicity Strongly Support Somewhat Support DK/NA Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Supp. % of Sample Latinos 65% 20% 9% 8 1 White Voters 5 21% 8% 79% 72% Voters of Color 65% 22% 8 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q6. Having heard this, would you say that you support or oppose the establishment of the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage National Monument? 14

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17 By a three-to-one margin, voters say they are more likely to support a member of Congress who backs the Monument. Suppose that your member of Congress supported the creation of this national monument. Would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them? Much more likely Somewhat more likely 2 3 More Likely 61% Somewhat less likely Much less likely 8% 9% Less Likely 1 Makes no difference Don't know/na 8% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Q7. 16

The issue has more of an impact on the vote preferences of younger voters. Impact on Vote by Age Much More Lkly Smwt. More Lkly Smwt. Less Lkly Much Less Lkly. Makes No Diff. DK/NA Supp.

18 The issue has more of an impact on the vote preferences of younger voters. Impact on Vote by Age Much More Lkly Smwt. More Lkly Smwt. Less Lkly Much Less Lkly. Makes No Diff. DK/NA Supp. % of Sample % 41% 1 65% 39% % 9% 9% 15% 61% % 31% 9% 12% 12% 10% 5 34% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q7. Suppose that your member of Congress supported the creation of this national monument. Would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them? 17

% of Sample Latinos 33% 45% 8% 78% 1 White Voters 24% 35% 9% 1 10% 58% 72% Voters of Color 31% 43% 9% 8% 74% 21% 0% 20% 40%

19 Support for the monument solidifies support for a member of Congress among voters of color. Impact on Vote by Ethnicity Much More Lkly Smwt. More Lkly Smwt. Less Lkly Much Less Lkly. Makes No Diff. DK/NA Supp. % of Sample Latinos 33% 45% 8% 78% 1 White Voters 24% 35% 9% 1 10% 58% 72% Voters of Color 31% 43% 9% 8% 74% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q7. Suppose that your member of Congress supported the creation of this national monument. Would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them? 18

Middle-income voters are most likely to say that their votes would be

Impact on Vote by Household Income Much More Lkly Smwt.

23% 42% 10% 14% 5% 64% 23% $100,000+ 24% 29% 8% 24% 9% 53% 20% 0% 20%

20 Middle-income voters are most likely to say that their votes would be positively impacted. Impact on Vote by Household Income Much More Lkly Smwt. More Lkly Smwt. Less Lkly Much Less Lkly. Makes No Diff. DK/NA <$30,000 30% 3 15% 9% Supp. % of Sample 6 18% $30,000-$60,000 31% 41% 9% 72% 23% $60,000-$100,000 23% 42% 10% 14% 5% 64% 23% $100, % 29% 8% 24% 9% 53% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q7. Suppose that your member of Congress supported the creation of this national monument. Would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them? 19

% of Sample Democrats 38% 39% 10% 5% 7 30% Independents 2 39% 10% 13% 65% 32% Republicans 1 30% 9% 1 19% 11% 4 38% 0% 20% 40%

21 Even among Republicans, a plurality offers more support for a member of Congress who backs the monument. Impact on Vote by Party Much More Lkly Smwt. More Lkly Smwt. Less Lkly Much Less Lkly. Makes No Diff. DK/NA Supp. % of Sample Democrats 38% 39% 10% 5% 7 30% Independents 2 39% 10% 13% 65% 32% Republicans 1 30% 9% 1 19% 11% 4 38% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q7. Suppose that your member of Congress supported the creation of this national monument. Would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them? 20

22 For more information, contact: Harrison St., Suite 2020 Oakland, CA Phone (510) Fax (510)

National Monuments and Public Lands California Voter Survey. Conducted January 25 th -30 th, 2018

National Monuments and Public Lands California Voter Survey Conducted January 25 th -30 th, 201 Methodology David Binder Research conducted 629 telephone interviews from January 25 th 30 th 2017. 53% of