Public Hearing Better News about Housing and Financial Markets

Transcription

1 FEBRUARY 6, 2013 Public Better News about Housing and Financial Markets FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS Michael Dimock Director Carroll Doherty Associate Director Alec Tyson Research Associate 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C Tel (202) Fax (202)

2 Public Better News about Housing and Financial Markets As Barack Obama begins his second term in office, the public is hearing a mix of good and about the economy, as it has for much of the past four years. Views of news about real estate values and financial markets have improved and are as positive as they have been in the last four years. But these relative bright spots are counterbalanced by persistently negative views of news about gas prices and prices for food and consumer goods. For the first time, as many say they are hearing good news (25%) as (24%) about real estate values; the remainder (40%) says the news is mixed. In 2009, far more saw the news about real estate as bad than good and the balance worsened considerably in 2010 and The latest survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 31-Feb. 3 among 1,000 adults, finds that perceptions of news about financial markets have become more positive since the end of last year. Nonetheless, more say the news about the financial markets is bad (28%) than good (18%); 44% say the news is a mix of good and bad. The job situation also is viewed less negatively: 42% say the news about jobs is bad, the lowest percentage in nearly a year and far lower than the 71% who viewed job news negatively in June 2009.

3 2 Economic Sector News By contrast, views of news about prices for food and consumer goods remain broadly negative and have shown no improvement over Obama s first term. Half (50%) say they are hearing about consumer prices; just 7% say they are hearing good news. In June 2009, shortly after Obama took office, impressions of news about prices were less negative (39% vs. 9% good news). By a 53%-8% margin more say they are hearing about gas prices than good news. The percentage hearing bad news about gas prices has jumped 11 points since December and 22 points since July. Real estate values Mostly good news Mostly Financial markets Job situation 71 There have been wide swings in perceptions of news about gas prices and other economic sectors over the past four years. For instance, over a four-month period last year, between March and July, the percentage viewing news about gas prices as bad fell 54 points, from 85% to 31%. Opinions about job news improved both last spring and the year before, but subsequently declined. In March 2012, for instance, 38% said job news was bad. In June, that figure rose to 55%, before declining in the fall. Currently, 42% say job news is bad, 12% say it is good, while 43% see it as mixed Prices for food and consumer goods Gas prices PEW RESEARCH CENTER Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 2013.

4 3 Views of Economic News Overall impressions of economic news continue to be mixed: 59% say they have been hearing a mix of good and about the economy, 28% say they have been hearing while 10% say they have been hearing good news. That is little changed since January, though views of economic news are somewhat more positive than last summer. In August, 41% said economic news was bad, 13 points higher than the current figure. For the most part, however, opinions about economic news remain mixed as they have for much of Obama s presidency. But during his first months in office, perceptions were much more negative: in February 2009, 60% said news about the economy was bad, 37% said it was mixed and just 2% said news about the economy was good. Views of News about the Economy Feb Feb Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Jan. 31-Feb. 3, Current Views of News about Economic Sectors News about Mostly bad news Mostly good news Mostly good Mix of good and bad Mixed news Mostly bad DK % % % % Economy =100 Gas prices =100 Consumer prices =100 Job situation =100 Financial markets =100 Real estate =100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Jan. 31-Feb. 3, Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

5 4 Public Closely Following Gun Control Debate Debate over gun control in the U.S. was the public s top story last week, with 42% following news about the gun debate very. Interest was as high last week as it was in the Jan , 2013 survey, conducted shortly after Obama announced proposals for strengthening gun laws (43% very ). Equal percentages of Republicans and Democrats say they followed news about the gun control debate very (49% each); fewer independents followed the story (32% very ). Interest in the gun debate outpaced interest in economic news (33% very ) as well as interest in news about immigration policy (23% very ), a hostage situation in Alabama (20% very ), and the Super Bowl (18%). Weekly News Interest % following very January 31-February 3 Gun debate Economy Immigration debate Alabama hostage January Super Bowl Winter weather Obama inauguration Debt debate Clinton testimony Women in combat PEW RESEARCH CENTER Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 2013; Jan , In the previous week s survey (conducted Jan ), cold winter weather topped the public s news agenda: 37% followed news about winter weather very, compared with far fewer who followed Obama s inauguration (24%) or discussions over the federal budget deficit and national debt (23%). Democrats were much more likely to follow Obama s inauguration very (41%) than were Republicans (12%). Partisans were equally likely to follow news about Hillary Clinton testifying about the attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya.

6 5 About the Surveys Most of the analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 31- February 3, 2013 among a national sample of 1,000 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (500 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 500 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 243 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the 2011 Census Bureau's American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: Group Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Total sample 1, percentage points Republicans percentage points Democrats percentage points Independents percentage points Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

7 6 Some of the analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 24-27, 2013 among a national sample of 1,005 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (503 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 502 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 258 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the 2011 Census Bureau's American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: Group Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Total sample 1, percentage points Republicans percentage points Democrats percentage points Independents percentage points Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Pew Research Center, 2013

8 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER January 31-February 3, 2013, OMNIBUS FINAL TOPLINE N=1,000 ASK ALL: PEW.1 As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very, fairly, not too, or not at all. First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE;] [IF NECESSARY Did you follow [ITEM] very, fairly, not too or not at all? ] Very Fairly Not too Not at all a. Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy January 31-February 3, January 17-20, * January 3-6, December 6-9, November 8-11, November 1-4, October 25-28, October 18-21, October 12-14, October 4-7, * September 27-30, September 20-23, * September 13-16, September 7-9, August 31-September 3, August 23-26, August 16-19, * August 9-12, August 2-5, July 26-29, * July 19-22, * July 12-15, July 5-8, June 28-July 1, June 21-24, * June 14-17, * June 7-10, * May 31-June 3, May 24-27, May 17-20, * May 10-13, * May 3-6, * April 26-29, April 19-22, April 12-15, April 5-8, March 29-April 1, March 22-25, March 15-18, March 8-11, * March 1-4, February 23-26, February 16-20, February 9-12, February 2-5, January 26-29, * January 19-22,

9 8 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all January 12-15, January 5-8, * SEE TREND FOR PREVIOUS YEARS: b. Debate in Washington over immigration policy January 31-February 3, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: June 28-July 1, 2012: The Supreme Court decision on Arizona s immigration law April 26-29, 2012: The issue of immigration May 12-15, September 2-6, August 12-15, July 29-August 1, 2010: A court ruling that stops most of Arizona s immigration law from going into effect July 8-11, 2010: The U.S. Justice Department challenging the legality of Arizona s recent immigration law July 1-5, 2010: The issue of immigration May 7-10, 2010: A new Arizona law that gives police more authority to question people they suspect might be illegal immigrants April 30-May 3, * October 12-15, 2007: The issue of immigration * June 29-July 2, 2007: The debate in Congress over new immigration policy * June 22-25, * June 15-18, * June 8-11, May 24-27, April 12-16, 2007: The issue of immigration * August, June, May, April, December, 1994: Passage of Proposition 187, the California law that bars education, health and welfare benefits from illegal immigrants and their children * c. The Super Bowl January 31-February 3, February 2-5, February 3-6, * February 5-8, * January 30-February 2, February 1-4, * February 9-12, February, February, d. Debate over gun control in the U.S. January 31-February 3,

10 9 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: January 17-20, 2013: President Obama announcing proposals for strengthening gun laws January 3-6, 2013: Debate over gun control in the U.S June, 1999: Debates about gun control legislation in Congress and state legislatures e. A hostage situation in Alabama involving a 5- year-old boy January 31-February 3, ASK ALL: Now thinking about recent economic news PEW.4 Are you hearing good news about the economy these days, about the economy or a mix of both good and? good news A mix of good and January 31-February 3, January 3-6, December 6-9, November 1-4, October 4-7, September 7-9, August 2-5, July 5-8, May 31-June 3, May 3-6, April 5-8, March 8-11, February 2-5, January 5-8, December 1-4, November 10-13, October 6-9, September 1-4, August 4-7, July 7-10, June 2-5, May 12-15, March 31-April 3, March 3-6, February 3-6, January 6-9, December 2-5, November 11-14, October 7-10, September 2-6, August 5-8, July 1-5, June 10-13, May 7-10, April 1-5, * March 5-8,

11 10 PEW.4 CONTINUED good news A mix of good and February 5-8, * January 8-11, December 4-7, October 30-November 2, October 9-12, September 3-6, August 7-10, July 2-5, * June 12-15, * May 8-11, April 9-13, March 13-16, February 13-16, January 16-19, December 5-8, * ASK ALL: PEW.5 Thinking about some specific aspects of the nation s economy Please tell me if you are hearing good news, or a mix of both good and about each of the following. [READ AND RANDOMIZE] good news A mix of good and a. The financial markets January 31-February 3, December 6-9, November 1-4, October 4-7, September 7-9, August 2-5, July 5-8, May 31-June 3, March 8-11, November 10-13, August 4-7, June 2-5, May 12-15, March 31-April 3, March 3-6, February 3-6, December 2-5, September 2-6, July 1-5, May 7-10, April 1-5, March 5-8, January 8-11, October 30-November 2, August 7-10, June 12-15, b. Real estate values January 31-February 3, December 6-9, November 1-4, October 4-7, September 7-9,

12 11 PEW.5 CONTINUED good news A mix of good and August 2-5, July 5-8, May 31-June 3, March 8-11, November 10-13, August 4-7, June 2-5, May 12-15, March 31-April 3, March 3-6, February 3-6, December 2-5, September 2-6, July 1-5, May 7-10, April 1-5, March 5-8, January 8-11, October 30-November 2, August 7-10, June 12-15, c. Prices for food and consumer goods January 31-February 3, December 6-9, November 1-4, October 4-7, September 7-9, August 2-5, July 5-8, May 31-June 3, March 8-11, November 10-13, August 4-7, June 2-5, May 12-15, March 31-April 3, March 3-6, February 3-6, December 2-5, September 2-6, July 1-5, May 7-10, April 1-5, March 5-8, January 8-11, October 30-November 2, August 7-10, June 12-15, d. The job situation January 31-February 3, December 6-9, November 1-4, October 4-7, September 7-9, August 2-5, July 5-8,

13 12 PEW.5 CONTINUED good news A mix of good and May 31-June 3, March 8-11, December 1-4, November 10-13, August 4-7, June 2-5, May 12-15, March 31-April 3, March 3-6, February 3-6, December 2-5, September 2-6, July 1-5, May 7-10, April 1-5, March 5-8, January 8-11, October 30-November 2, August 7-10, June 12-15, e. Gas prices January 31-February 3, December 6-9, November 1-4, October 4-7, September 7-9, August 2-5, July 5-8, May 31-June 3, March 8-11, November 10-13, August 4-7, June 2-5, May 12-15, March 31-April 3, March 3-6, February 3-6, PEWWP.1F1-PEWWP.2F2 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE

14 13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER January 24-27, 2013, OMNIBUS FINAL TOPLINE N=1,005 ASK ALL: PEW.1 As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very, fairly, not too, or not at all. First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE;] [IF NECESSARY Did you follow [ITEM] very, fairly, not too or not at all? ] Very Fairly Not too Not at all a. Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt January 24-27, November 3-6, October 27-30, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: October 13-16, 2011: The debate in Washington over jobs and the deficit September 29-October 2, 2011: Congress working on a budget extension to avoid a government shutdown * September 22-25, 2011: The debate in Washington over jobs and the deficit September 15-18, 2011: The debate in Washington over President Obama s jobs legislation September 8-11, 2011: Barack Obama s speech about jobs to a joint session of Congress July 28-31, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt * July 21-24, * July 14-17, * June 16-19, 2011: Debate in Washington over whether to raise the federal debt limit * June 2-5, * May 26-29, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit * May 12-15, May 5-8, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt April 21-25, * April 14-17, April 7-10, 2011: The threat of a government shutdown because of budget disagreements in Washington * March 31-April 3, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit * March 17-20, March 3-6, February 17-20, December 2-5,

15 14 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all December 2-5, 2010: The debate in Washington over the federal income tax cuts passed when George W. Bush was president November 11-14, 2010: Proposals made by leaders of the federal budget deficit commission September 16-19, 2010: The debate in Washington over competing Democratic and Republican tax plans * September 9-12, May 8-11, 2009: The debate in Washington over the federal budget * March 27-30, 2009: Debate over Barack Obama s budget proposal March 6-9, 2009: Obama proposing a $630 billion fund for overhauling health care * February 27-March 2, 2009: Barack Obama s budget proposal for next year that raises taxes on wealthy Americans and increases spending on health care, education and other programs * February 27-March 2, 2009: The Obama administration s plan to help homeowners facing foreclosure which could cost as much as $275 billion dollars February 20-23, 2009: The $780 billion economic stimulus legislation approved by Congress and signed into law by President Obama * February 13-16, 2009: Congress passing Barack Obama s economic stimulus plan * February 6-9, 2009: The debate in Congress over Barack Obama s economic stimulus plan * January 30-February 2, * January 16-19, 2009: Debate in Washington over what the government should do about the nation s economic problems * January 9-12, 2009: Projections of a record high federal budget deficit this year * December 19-22, 2008: The Bush administration s plan to provide billions in emergency loans to U.S. automakers December 12-15, 2008: The debate over a government bailout for the U.S. auto industry * December 5-8, 2008: The debate in Congress over a government bailout for the U.S. auto industry * November 21-24, October 3-6, 2008: The debate in Washington over a plan to use government funds to stabilize financial markets * September 26-29, * September 12-15, 2008: The federal government taking control of the mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

16 15 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all March 20-24, 2008: The buyout of Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns * February 8-11, 2008: President Bush and Congress agreeing on an economic Stimulus plan January 25-28, * February, 2003: George W. Bush s tax cut and economic stimulus plan February, January, February, 2002: The debate in Congress over George W. Bush s budget and tax cut plan April, * February, 2001: George W. Bush s tax cut plan August, 1997: The debate in Washington about the federal budget May, February, March, * January, * September, * August, 1995: The debate in Congress over the federal budget February, 1995: The debate in Congress over the Balanced Budget Amendment August, 1993: The debate in Congress over Bill Clinton s budget bill * June, February, 1993: Bill Clinton s economic plan * September, 1992 (RV): George Bush s plan to improve the economy by cutting government spending and cutting taxes November, 1990: Congressional and administration efforts to reach a budget deficit agreement October, 1990: Attempts by Congress and the administration to find ways to reduce the budget deficit * August, 1989: Passage of a bill to bailout ailing savings and loan institutions b. Hillary Clinton testifying about the attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya January 24-27, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: November 15-18, 2012: Investigations into the September attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya October 18-21, 2012: Investigations into last month s attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya October 12-14, October 4-7, 2012: Investigations into the attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya earlier this month

17 16 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all September 13-16, 2012: Attacks on American embassies and consulates in the Middle East and the killing of the U.S. ambassador in Libya c. Cold winter weather January 24-27, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: November 3-6, 2011: An unusual autumn snow storm on the East Coast February 3-6, 2011: Snow and ice storms across the United States * January 13-16, 2011: Winter storms in the Eastern U.S December 16-19, 2010: Cold winter weather February 12-15, 2010: Major snow storms affecting the East Coast and the South * January 8-11, 2010: Unusually cold winter weather * January 16-19, 2009: Cold winter weather in much of the country * December 14-17, 2007: Snow and ice storms in the Midwest and Northeast * February 16-19, 2007: Cold winter weather and snowstorms in the Northeast and Midwest February 9-12, 2007: Cold winter weather * January 19-22, 2007: Snow and ice storms in some parts of the country January 5-8, 2007: Winter snowstorms in the western U.S * January, 2001: Cold winter weather and storms in the Northeast and Midwest January, 1999: Cold winter weather and storms in the Midwest * Early December, 1998: Unseasonable weather patterns January, 1994: News about cold weather conditions in the Northeast and Midwest * d. Barack Obama s inauguration January 24-27, January 23-26, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: January 16-19, 2009: Preparations for * Barack Obama s inauguration January 9-12, 2009: e. The Pentagon announcing the end of a ban on women serving in military combat roles January 24-27, PEW.2-PEW.3 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE PEWWP.1-PEWWP.4 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED