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1 Outline of presentation Main research question New Early Warnin System (EWS) Framework Beyond four components Application / Research Data Results and Discussions Conclusion 1

2 Main Research Question How do certain attributes of overnance and institutions function and how should they function in society to enhance the capacity to manae resilience in the case of uncertain tsunami risks. 2

3 The New Interated Early Warnin System Governance Framework Response Risk Knowlede Ecosystem Resilience Capacity (Self oranise, Learn and Adapt, Scale, Fit, Threshold, Knowlede..) Monitorin & Warnin System of Governance [Political, Economic and Social Systems] Governance Actors (Participation, mediation, neotiation, deliberation, cooperation, partnership, transparency, accountability, equity..) Architecture (Institutional arranements(formal & informal) frameworks, norms, structures, polycentric-multilayered systems.) Dissemination & Communication Durin Event Source: Author

4 Resilience Analytical Steps PAST and PREVAILING SITUATION ANALYSIS ANALYSIS OF CHANGE LEVEL ARCHITECTURE ACTORS and THE COMMUNITY SYSTEMS OF GOVERNANCE INCENTIVES PROCESS LEVEL POLICY LEVEL GLOBAL REGIONAL NATONAL LOCAL Ins$tu$onal - arranements Frameworks Norms Structures Polycentric- mul$- layered systems Par$cipa$on Networks Media$on Neo$a$on Delibera$on Coopera$on Partnership Transparency Accountability Equity Poli$cal Economic Social Economic Scien$fic Research and Development Human - Security Damae cost- Reduc$on OPERATIONAL LEVEL INCENTIVE CHANGE LEVEL OUTCOME Effective and Sustainable- Source: Author

5 Application Padan Tsunami Hazard Map The study focuses on Padan coastal city and Bali in Indonesia. Hih tsunami hazard probability alon the coast South Bali Tsunami Hazard Map Hih tsunami hazard probability at certain parts of the coast Source: National Georaphic Society 2003 Source: DLR in the framework of the GITEWS project

6 Data Actor Expert Interviews Informants Interviews Focus roup discussions Surveys Technical papers and documents Media material Other secondary quantitative data 6

7 Systems of Governance to Implement and Sustain TEWS in Indonesia Emerin stron economic system of overnance in Indonesia Wide overnance ap between Indonesia compared to the United States and Japan. Ø Indonesia will face touh challenes to implement and sustain an effective TEWS Source: Author

8 TEWS/ DRR Related Architectures and Structures Evolution of Institutional Chanes Related to DRR in Indonesia Leal Basis Structural Chane Goal Constitution Emer Relief Advisory Board Coordination of Disaster Response NAT DM Coord Board BAKORNAS PBA Pres Decree No. 28 / 1979 NAT DM Coord Board BAKORNAS PB Pres Decree No. 43 / 1990 Manae Induced Disasters and Social Unrest NAT DM Coord Board BAKORNAS PBP Pres Decree NO. 106 / 1999 INATEWS Dev Min Decree NO. 21 / 2005 HFA initially sined Disaster Risk Reduction / Disaster Manaement Paradim Shift from Response towards Preparedness DRR Action Plan Pres Decree NO. 19 / 2006 DM Law NO. 24/ 2007 Steerin Committee [Formulate Policies, Monitorin and Evaluation] Executive Board [Coordinate Command and Execute] ^Creation of Multi-Level DM Aencies Pres Decree: No.8 / 2008^ Gov Reulation: PP No. 21/ DM Arranement PP No22/2008- Fundin PP No 23/ 2008 External support Multi- Sector Participation Nat DRR Platform * INATEWS: Indonesian Tsunami Early Warnin System Time (Years) Dev: Development Nat: National HFA: Hyoo Framework for Action Pres: Presidential Min: Ministerial Coord: Coordination Emer: Emerency *Full implementation (Institutionalized in 2008) Source: Author

9 TEWS / DRR Related Architectures and Structures There are many challenes in implementin the polycentric-multi-layered architectures and structures. Few provinces and districts have actually completed the DM local reulation and established the subnational DM aencies and EOCs. The key obstacles include: Multi-level commitment Bureaucracy Lack of financial resources and specialised human capacities. 9

10 Actors Interaction with the TEWS / DRR Architecture in Indonesia Relatively hih deree of multistakeholder participation. New steerin committee of DM Aency (BNBP) consistin of professional citizens 10

11 Disaster Manaement Financin The DM financin: Increased (2.1 % national budet) Interated in the overnment annual plans Increased at the local level (i.e. financial decentralisation) Contiency Budet (Billion Rupia National National Budet, 5.35 Local Budet, Budet, Local 2.7 Budet, Bureau of Disaster Prevention Ministry of Environment Bureau of Sidoarjo Mud Handlin Bureau of Meteoroloy and Geophysics Ministry of Welfare Data source: Ministry of Finance, Indonesia

12 Disaster Manaement Financin However, budet allocation is: Sinificantly spatially variable leadin to unjust allocation of funds Mostly for post disaster response. Ø DM financin is an issue that is constantly contested and neotiated. 12

13 The TEWS at the Level of Padan and Bali Similar polycentric-multi-layered architectures are bein developed and implemented in Bali and Padan. President of Indonesia Governor Decree to leitimise the establishment and functions of the local BNPB and EOC. A tsunami warnin chain is radually emerin Ø Province and districts with EOC have the mandate to make decisions what to do accordin to the SOPs once tsunami information is received (Governor Decree) Source: Author

14 The TEWS at the Level of Padan and Bali The key contrasts between the development of tsunami resilience in Padan and Bali are as follows: Political commitment and participation are perceived to be hiher in Padan. Risk knowlede eneration has been a hihly contested area in Padan. Padan has made more proress in institutional disaster preparedness The emerin multi-stakeholder partnership and institutional arranements with the tourism sector, the traditional and cultural structures are far more complex in Bali. 14

15 Aency in DRR and TEWS Development At least two non-state actors have emered as aents and have exercised aency beyond the state where and when the state was unable to effectively respond. MPBI (Indonesian Society for DM) exercised aency in institutional chane in DM Indonesia. KOGAMI (Tsunami Alert Community) exercised aency in community disaster preparedness in Padan, Indonesia. The underlyin conditions of their authority and leitimacy include: Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø A mix of knowlede base Consent and trust from the state Support from the community. Extensive network at multiple levels and scales Flexibility 15

16 Towards a Future Effective and Sustainable TEWS There is sufficient evidence to suest that the current TEWS which relies on a technocratic approach and follows a multi-level linear warnin chain process would be partially or completely ineffective in dealin with the earthquake-tsunami risks as revealed in the case studies. Tensions arise and there is constant debate about the actual mode of TEWS overnance Ø...Official earthquake-tsunami information was larely absent in the first 30 minutes after the earthquake in Padan (GTZ- IS 2010). 16

17 Towards a Future Effective and Sustainable TEWS From a resilience point of view it is arued that there is a problem of the fit and adaptability of the existin TEWS to the ecoloical challene. Hence, a theoretical basis of a TEWS framework is proposed. The key idea is that EW starts not only with the instruments but also the people! 17

18 Towards a Future Effective and Sustainable TEWS Micro-level reaction Nonlinear behaviour Bali, Padan Province (Governor) Emerency Operations Centre (EOC) Local Decisions if EQ>15 s Activate sirens Bali, Padan District (Mayor) Emerency Operations Centre (EOC) Local Decisions if EQ>15 s Activate sirens EQf: Earthquake felt In the case that a sinificant earthquake is felt for lon enouh duration, the EOC at provincial and district level should independently have the mandate to activate the alarms to lead the local TEWS process. (NOT THE CASE NOW) EQf: Earthquake felt PB: Perception/Belief SC: Social confirmation DS: Definin Situation IO: Independent Observation PB EQf DS IO SC Padan (Mosques) Bali (Kulkul) Coastal Community at Risk Anticipated Response [T<5 to 10 min] 18

19 Towards a Future Effective and Sustainable TEWS A Mixed Model Approach-Linkin at Different Levels and Scales IOC-UNESCO GLOBAL- REGIONAL TEWS Coordination Framework [+Far field tsunami] INATEWS (SYSTEM APPROACH) [Local earthquake tsunami. Leads after T>5-10 min] LOCAL PEOPLE- CENTRED (ADAPTIVE APPROACH) [Local earthquake- EQf>15S, Initiated T<5-10 Min] Source: Author

20 Conclusion Risk overnance, multi-institutional arranements and polycentric frameworks has strenthened the resilience capacities of Indonesia but are stronly affected by institutional path dependencies; Systems of overnance stronly drives TEWS effectiveness and sustainability, however multi-level incentive mechanisms operatin at different time and scales are needed to effect the desired chane; The future of the INATEWS should rest on: 1. Both system and people-centred Mixed model approach and 2. A broader city plannin and overnance stratey New proposed framework provided an in-depth understandin in TEWS- overnance and links to DRR Way Forward Application of the new EWSG Framework in the context of Climate Chane 20

21 END UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) THANK YOU Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10 D Bonn, Germany Phone: (0) Fax: (0)