One Year Later: Still Divided on the War in Iraq, Less Support for President Bush

Transcription

1 One Year Later: Still Divided on the War in Iraq, Less Support for President Bush Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph. D Brenda Hofer California State University, Sacramento On March 19, 2003, the United States started Operation Iraqi Freedom. A year later, the Sacramento region remains divided on whether it was worth going to war in Iraq, how to handle the Iraq situation, and whether America should withdraw its troops from Iraq. At the same time, overall support for President George W. Bush has dropped from 57% in 2003 to 50% in 2004 among Sacramento region residents. Although the approval rating for Bush s handling of the situation with Iraq (46% in 2004 vs. 46% in 2003) and the economy (48% in 2004 vs. 47% in 2003) is holding steady at under 50%, Sacramento voters today are sharply split along party lines. Republican voters are much more likely than Democrats to approve of his handling of the situation with Iraq (76% vs. 22%) and the economy (79% vs. 22%). Moreover, Sacramento residents are quite negative concerning Bush s performance regarding the budget (36% approve vs. 56% disapprove), social security (34% approve vs. 44% disapprove), and Medicare (32% approve vs. 47% disapprove). Those issues and the big partisan gaps may be critical for Bush s reelection this fall. These are some of the findings of The 2004 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region, conducted February 7 to March 2, 2004, by the Institute for Social Research, California State University, Sacramento (CSUS). Split Over the War in Iraq A year ago, 52% of Sacramento region residents favored the invasion of Iraq with U.S. ground troops, and 42% opposed it (Liu 2003). As we approach the anniversary of Operation Iraqi Freedom, residents in the Sacramento region remain divided on whether the war was worth fighting. Fifty percent of Sacramento region residents think it was worthwhile, whereas 45% say it was not. Similarly, a recent Gallup Poll showed that 49% of Americans think it was worth going to war in Iraq, but 49% say it was not (Moore 2004). The evaluation of the war varies among the counties in the Sacramento region as well as among racial groups and political parties. Residents of El Dorado (68%) and Placer (57%) counties are more likely than residents of Sacramento (48%) and Yolo (31%) counties to approve of the war. Whites (55%) support the war more than other racial groups (38%). Republicans (80%) are more likely than Democrats (26%) and other voters (43%) to think the war is worthwhile. All in all do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not? Page 1 of 10

2 Comparison between the Sacramento Region and the United States Sacramento Region United States 1 Worth going to war 50% 49% Not worth going to war Don t know Source: Gallup Poll, January 29-February 1, Poll Analysis by David Moore, February 5, Support for War in Iraq Drops: Public evenly divided on whether war was worthwhile. Comparison among the Four Counties in the Sacramento Region Sacramento Yolo Placer El Dorado Worth going to war 48% 31% 57% 68% Not worth going to war Don t know Comparison between White and Other Racial Groups White Other Racial Groups Worth going to war 55% 38% Not worth going to war Don t know 5 4 Comparison among Voters Republicans Democrats Other Voters Worth going to war 80% 26% 43% Not worth going to war Don t know No Consensus on How to Handle Iraq Situation and Troop Withdrawals Page 2 of 10

3 While 50% of Sacramento region residents think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, fewer approve of how the U.S. has handled the situation in Iraq since the major military assault operations ended in April According to a CNN Special Report (March 8, 2004), of the 552 U.S. military men and women killed in Iraq, approximately 200 were killed after President Bush declared the end of major combat. An equal number of Sacramento region residents approve (47%) as disapprove (47%) of the way the U.S. has handled the situation with Iraq since April. Nationwide, a recent Gallup poll found that 46% approved of how the U.S. is handling the situation in Iraq at the end of the major combat, while 51% disapprove (Moore and Carroll 2003). Furthermore, Sacramento region residents are split over what the U.S. should now do about the number of troops in Iraq. Thirty-three percent think the U.S. should keep the number of troops in Iraq as it is now, 32% think the U.S. should withdraw some of its troops from Iraq, 20% think the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq, and 9% think the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq. Similarly, Gallup Polls found that 33% of the American public think the U.S. should keep the number of troops in Iraq as it is now, 25% think the U.S. should withdraw some of its troops from Iraq, 17% think the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq, and 22% think the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq (Moor and Carroll 2003). Support for President Bush s Overall Job Performance Declines Page 3 of 10

4 Support for President Bush has dropped from a year ago. Now 50% of Sacramento region residents approve of the job President Bush is doing, compared to 57% who approved of the President s performance in Nationwide, Gallup Polls found that Bush had a 49% job approval rating in the country in early March. This is one of the lowest approval ratings of his presidency. A year ago, his approval rating in the nation just before the war was around 58%, and jumped to around 70% soon after the war (Jones 2004). Support for the President varies greatly among the counties in the Sacramento region as well as among racial groups and political parties. Residents of Placer (63%) and El Dorado (63%) counties are much more enthusiastic about the President than residents of Yolo (29%) or Sacramento (48%) counties. Furthermore, Whites (55%) show more support for Bush than other racial groups (38%). Lastly, Republicans (84%) are much more likely than Democrats (22%) and other voters (39%) to approve of the way Bush is handling his job as President of the United States. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President of the United States? Comparison between the Sacramento Region and the United States Approve Disapprove Don t Know Sacramento % 46% 4% Sacramento United States 2 (March 5-7, 2004) United States (March 3-5, 2003) United States (March 22-23, 2003) Source: The 2003 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region. July Source: Gallup Poll, March 5-7, Poll Analysis by Jeffrery M. Jones, March 10, Public Divided on Bush: Great partisan differences in job approval Comparison among the Four Counties in the Sacramento Region Sacramento Yolo Placer El Dorado Approve 48% 29% 63% 63% Disapprove Don t know Comparison between White and Other Racial Groups Page 4 of 10

5 White Other Racial Groups Approve 55% 38% Disapprove Don t know 3 4 Comparison among Voters Republicans Democrats Other Voters Approve 84% 22% 39% Disapprove Don t know Sharp Partisan Gap on Bush s Handling of the Economy and the Situation in Iraq Page 5 of 10

6 Compared to a year ago, support for Bush s handling of the situation with Iraq (46% in 2004 vs. 46% in 2003) and the economy (48% in 2004 vs. 47% in 2003) is holding steady at under 50%. However, today s Sacramento voters are sharply divided along party lines. Seventy-nine percent of Republican voters approve of his handling of the economy, compared with just 22% of Democrats. Seventy-six percent of Republicans support his handling of the situation with Iraq, but only 22% of Democrats view it positively. Thus, the Republican and Democratic views of Bush differ by 57 percentage points for the economy and 54 percentage points for the war. I am going to read you a list of specific issues President Bush has to handle. Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling each one. Comparison between 2004 and 2003 Approve Disapprove Don t Know The economy % The situation with Iraq The budget Social security N/A 1 N/A N/A Medicare N/A N/A N/A 1 Unfortunately we did not ask these questions in The 2003 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region. Comparison among Voters Page 6 of 10

7 Republicans Democrats Other Voters The economy Approve 79% 22% 36% Disapprove Don t know The situation with Iraq Approve Disapprove Don t know The budget Approve Disapprove Don t know Social Security Approve Disapprove Don t know Medicare Approve Disapprove Don t know Page 7 of 10

8 Negative about Bush s Handling of the Budget, Social Security, and Medicare If the drop in President Bush s overall approval rating is not attributable to a change in the approval level regarding the war and the economy in the Sacramento region, what is its source? Perhaps such a drop is due to other issues. The rating of Bush s performance on three important domestic issues surveyed in this study is much worse. Only 36% approve and 56% disapprove of how he is handling the budget. More people disapprove of how he is handling the budget this year (56%) than he did last year (52%). Today, only about a third of Sacramento region residents approve of his handling of social security (34%) and Medicare (32%). The majority of the other voters also disapprove of how the President is handling the budget (64%), Medicare (58%), and social security (55%). These may be critical issues for Bush s reelection this fall. There is also a big difference in Sacramento residents view of Bush s handling of the budget, social security and Medicare. Eighty-one percent of Democrats disapprove of his job with the budget, compared with just 29% of Republicans. Sixty-six percent of the Democrats disapprove of his handling of social security, whereas only 20% of Republicans do. Sixty-six percent of the Democrats disapprove of his handling of Medicare, compared with just 25% of Republicans. The partisan gaps are 53 percentage points for the budget, 46 percentage points for social security, and 41 percentage points for Medicare. Page 8 of 10

9 Survey Methods The above results are based on our third annual survey, The 2004 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region. This survey is a computerassisted telephone survey of 1003 randomly selected adult residents age 18 or over in the Sacramento region. For the purpose of this study, the Sacramento region includes Sacramento, Yolo, Placer, and El Dorado counties. The objective of this 2004 survey is to assess the opinions of people in the Sacramento region regarding a wide range of local and national issues. Over 30 students conducted phone interviews in English and Spanish, from February 7 to March 2, 2004, at the Institute for Social Research, California State University, Sacramento (CSUS). The sample is representative of the four counties in the Sacramento region and comparable to the 2000 U.S. Census (68% residents in the Census vs. 67% in the sample in Sacramento, 14% in the Census vs.16% in the sample in Placer, 9% in the Census vs. 8% in the sample in Yolo ; and 9% in the Census vs. 8% in the sample in El Dorado ). The margin of error for the survey is approximately ± 3% at the 95% confidence level. This survey has compared the Sacramento region findings with those from other California regions, the state, and the nation. Data cited regarding the state and other California regions often comes from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Surveys. Nationwide data often comes from Gallup polls. The College of Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Studies (SSIS) and the Office of Community Collaboration (OCC) at CSUS sponsored this project. Dr. Joseph Sheley, Dean of SSIS is actively involved in this project and has made great contributions. This research is directed by Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph.D., Department of Sociology and Institute for Social Research, California State University, Sacramento. Dr. Liu is an expert in public opinion polls, and has conducted over 20 surveys in the past nine years, including: 2003 Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region 2002 Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region Survey of Iowa Business about Eldercare and Eldercare Needs Story Conservation Board Survey Grundy Youth Needs Assessment Marshalltown United Way Survey Direct all correspondence to Dr. Amy Q. Liu, Department of Sociology, California State University, Sacramento, 6000 J. Street, Sacramento CA ; (phone); (fax); liuqa@csus.edu ( ). Please visit our web site ( for the executive summaries and the full reports on the 2003 and 2002 annual surveys in the Sacramento region. Page 9 of 10

10 References CNN.com. Special Report: War in Iraq. Retrieved March 8, 2004 from Liu, Amy Qiaoming The Full Report for the 2002 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region. California State University, Sacramento (CSUS). Jones, Jeffrey M Public Divided on Bush: Great partisan difference in job approval. March 10, 2004 (based on the Gallup poll conducted, March 5-7). The Gallup Organization. Retrieved March 10, 2003 from Moore, David W and Joseph Carroll Support for U.S. Troops in Iraq Rebounds. Poll Analysis on Dec. 12, 2003 (based on the Gallup poll conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003). The Gallup Organization. Retrieved Dec. 13, 2003 from Moore, David Support for War in Iraq Drops: Public evenly divided on whether war was worthwhile. Poll Analysis on February 5, 2004 (based on the Gallup poll conducted, January 29-February 1). The Gallup Organization. Retrieved Febrary 10, 2004 from Page 10 of 10