Half See 2012 Campaign as Dull, Too Long Modest Interest in Gadhafi Death, Iraq Withdrawal

Transcription

1 1 NEWS Release L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C Tel (202) Fax (202) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, October 26, 2011 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Andrew Kohut, Director Michael Remez, Senior Writer Half See 2012 Campaign as Dull, Too Long Modest Interest in Gadhafi Death, Iraq Withdrawal Americans divided their attention last week among several breaking news stories from the death of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya to the release of dozens of dangerous wild animals in Ohio to the announced withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq while still keeping a close watch on news about the nation s economy. News Interest vs. News Coverage Economy Ohio wild animals Death of Gadhafi 2012 elections Withdrawal from Iraq Wall Street protests News Interest No single story stands out in the most recent weekly News Interest Index survey, conducted Oct , 2011, among 1,009 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. While 15% say the condition of the economy was their top story, about as many cite Gadhafi s death (13%), the release of wild animals in Ohio (13%) or news about the 2012 presidential candidates (13%) as the news they followed most News Coverage News interest shows the percentage of people who say they followed this story most, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Oct , News coverage shows the percentage of news coverage devoted to each story, Pew Research Center s Project for Excellence in Journalism, Oct , 2011.

2 2 Another 12% say their top story was President Obama s announcement that he will withdraw all U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of 2011; 9% say they followed news about the anti-wall Street protests in New York and other cities most. Though it came late in the week, Gadhafi s violent death topped news coverage, along with news about the 2012 presidential election. Each made up 17% of the newshole, according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ). News about the economy in general accounted for 12% of coverage, not including 4% devoted specifically to the Occupy Wall Street protests. Early Views of Campaign 2012 Americans are generally critical of the early stages of the 2012 presidential campaign. More say the campaign has been dull (51%) than interesting (35%). With more than a year to go before the election, 50% already say the campaign is too long. The public is evenly split over whether the campaign is too negative (44% too negative, 41% not). And while 40% say the campaign has been informative, 49% have found it not informative. In October 2007, when both parties had contests for their nominations, far more people (66%) said the campaign was too long. About the same percentage as viewed the campaign as dull (55%) as do so today. However, as the primaries began in early 2008, fewer people said the campaign was dull. By February, just 25% said it was dull and 70% said it was interesting. Republicans Express More Positive Views of Early Campaign Presidential Total Rep Dem Ind campaign is % % % % Interesting Dull Neither Don t know Too long long Neither 2 * 1 2 Don t know Too negative negative Neither Don t know Informative Not informative Neither Don t know PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct , Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Currently, Republicans are more positive in their assessments than are Democrats or independents. For example, half of Republicans (50%) say the campaign has been

3 3 interesting, compared with 37% of Democrats and 29% of independents. While 51% of Republicans say the campaign has not been too negative, nearly as many Democrats and independents (46% each) say it has been too negative. Republicans also are more likely to say the campaign has been informative: 54% say this, compared with 41% of Democrats and 36% of independents. On the question of whether the campaign is too long, there is little disagreement: 47% of Republicans say this, as do 51% of Democrats and 54% of independents. Four years ago, three quarters of Republicans (74%) said the campaign was too long at this point, compared with 61% of Democrats. About two-thirds of independents (68%) agreed. The Week s News Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say they very followed reports about the condition of the U.S. economy last week. The level of interest has changed little in recent months as the economy continues to struggle and unemployment remains high. In total, news about the economy made up 16% of coverage, with 12% devoted to general economic conditions and 4% devoted primarily to the Occupy Wall Street protests. Three-in-ten (30%) say they very followed President Obama s announcement that the U.S. would withdraw all U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of Though Republican presidential candidates have hammered away at Obama s decision, Democrats say they followed this news more than Republicans (38% vs. 26%). Three-in-ten independents say they followed this news very. News about Iraq and Obama s announcement accounted for 5% of coverage, according to PEJ. Americans in recent years have paid closer attention to news about plans for U.S. troops in Iraq than conditions on the ground there. Last December, just 19% said they were very following news about the current situation and events in Iraq. Interest in Iraq Troop Announcements Still, Obama s announcement generated less interest than several other major policy announcements about Iraq. In March 2009, 40% said they very followed Obama s announcement that he planned to withdraw most combat troops by August And in Following very % Obama announces complete troop withdrawal by end of 2011 (Oct 2011) 30 Last combat forces withdrawn (Aug 2010) 31 Obama announces plan to withdraw U.S. troops by Aug 2010 (Mar 2009) 40 Bush announces plan for U.S. troop surge (Jan 2007) 46 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct , 2011.

4 4 January 2007, as President George W. Bush laid out plans for a surge in troop levels in Iraq, 46% said they were following news about the war very. A quarter of the public (25%) says they followed news about Gadhafi s death very. After what has been a tumultuous year in the Middle East and North Africa and with Gadhafi already out of power this news attracted relatively modest interest. By comparison, 37% in early April said they very followed news about air strikes by the U.S. and allies in support of rebels fighting Gadhafi s forces. Looking elsewhere in the region, roughly four-in-ten (39%) in February said they were very following the anti-government protests in Egypt and the resignation of that nation s long-time ruler, Hosni Mubarak. About a quarter (23%) say they very followed news about the release of lions, tigers and other animals from a private wild animal farm in Ohio. Police killed most of the animals, fearing they could hurt humans if not put down quickly. This news made up 4% of the coverage analyzed by PEJ. Overall, 13% say this was their top story of the week. Nearly two-in-ten women (18%) say they followed this news more than any other story, putting it at the top of their list along with the economy (14% most ). For men, this was a lower priority: 8% say this was the news they followed most, while 17% say the economy was their top story. News Interest % following each story very Which one story did you follow most? Economy Ohio wild animals Death of Gadhafi elections US out of Iraq by Wall Street protests 19 9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct , 2011.

5 5 About two-in-ten (21%) say they very followed news last week about the candidates for the 2012 presidential elections. As has been the case in recent weeks, Republicans tracked this news more than Democrats or independents. Nearly four-in-ten Republicans (37%) say they followed campaign news very, compared with 20% of Democrats and 16% of independents. About two-in-ten (19%) say they very followed news about the anti-wall Street protests in New York and other cities. This was the top story for 9%. Comparable numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents say they followed this news very (23%, 19% and 17%, respectively). Coverage dropped from 10% two weeks ago to 4% this past week. These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center s longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media s coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism s News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected Oct , and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected Oct from a nationally representative sample of 1,009 adults.

6 6 About the News Interest Index The News Interest Index is a weekly survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press aimed at gauging the public s interest in and reaction to major news events. This project has been undertaken in conjunction with the Project for Excellence in Journalism s News Coverage Index, an ongoing content analysis of the news. The News Coverage Index catalogues the news from top news organizations across five major sectors of the media: newspapers, network television, cable television, radio and the internet. Each week (from Monday through Sunday) PEJ compiles this data to identify the top stories for the week. (For more information about the Project for Excellence in Journalism s News Coverage Index, go to The News Interest Index survey collects data from Thursday through Sunday to gauge public interest in the most covered stories of the week. Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct , 2011, among a national sample of 1,009 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (606 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 403 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 195 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2010 Census Bureau s Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status based on extrapolations from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: Group Sample Size Plus or minus Total sample 1, percentage points Republicans percentage points Democrats percentage points Independents percentage points Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Pew Research Center, 2011

7 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER NEWS INTEREST INDEX OCTOBER 20-23, 2011 OMNIBUS FINAL TOPLINE N=1,009 ASK ALL: PEW.1 As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very, fairly, not too, or not at all. First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE;] [IF NECESSARY Did you follow [ITEM] very, fairly, not too or not at all? ] a. The death of former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi October 20-23, * TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: September 1-4, 2011: The current situation and events in Libya * August 25-28, 2011: The ongoing conflict in Libya * August 18-21, 2011: The current situation and events in Libya June 23-26, 2011: The debate over U.S. involvement in the conflict in Libya * June 9-12, 2011: The current situation and events in Libya May 19, 22, 2011: Reports about the killing of Osama bin Laden and its impact on U.S. relations with Pakistan * May 12-15, May 5-8, 2011: The killing of Osama bin Laden in a raid by American forces April 21-25, 2011: The current situation and events in Libya April 14-17, April 7-10, * March 31-April 3, 2011: Military air strikes in Libya by the U.S. and its allies March 24-27, * March 17-20, 2011: The conflict between rebels and government forces in Libya March 10-13, 2011: Growing violence in Libya * March 3-6, February 24-27, * February 10-13, 2011: Anti-government protests in Egypt and the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak January 10-15, 2007: The execution of Saddam Hussein January 5-8, 2007: The hanging of Saddam Hussein * July, 2004: Saddam Hussein s recent court appearance in Iraq December, 2003: The capture of Saddam Hussein * July 10-24, 1986: The U.S. air strike against Libya

8 8 b. Dozens of exotic animals let loose from a wild animal farm in Ohio October 20-23, TREND FOR COMPARISON: January 4-7, 2008: A deadly tiger attack at a zoo in San Francisco c. Anti-Wall Street protests in New York and other cities October 20-23, October 13-16, October 6-9, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: March 10-13, 2011: Disputes in Wisconsin and other states between state governments and public employee unions March 3-6, February 24-27, April 16-19, 2010: Anti-government protests on April April 17-20, 2009: Tea party protests against taxes and government spending May, 2000: The protests in Washington, D.C., at the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund December, 1999: The protests in Seattle at the World Trade Organization meeting BASED ON INTERVIEWING CONDUCTED OCTOBER 20, 2011 [N=256] d. The Major League Baseball World Series 1 October 20, October 28-November 1, * October 30-November 2, * October 24-27, * October 26-29, November, * October, BASED ON INTERVIEWING CONDUCTED OCTOBER 21-23, 2011 [N=753] d. President Obama announcing a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of 2011 October 21-23, TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: December 16-19, 2010: The current situation and events in Iraq * September 2-6, 2010: The withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq * August 26-29, 2010: The current situation and events in Iraq August 19-22, 2010: The withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq October 24-27, 2008 and October 26-29, 2007 asked about The Major League Baseball Playoffs and World Series. November 1989 and October 1988 asked about The World Series.

9 9 August 5-8, 2010: The current situation and events in Iraq May 13-16, March 12-15, * March 5-8, * January 29-February 1, * January 15-18, * October 16-19, * September 11-14, * August 21-24, August 14-17, * July 2-5, 2009: U.S. troops withdrawing from Iraqi cities April 24-27, 2009: The current situation and events in Iraq * March 20-23, * February 27-March 2, 2009: Barack Obama s plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq by August December 12-15, 2008: The current situation and events in Iraq * November 21-24, November 14-17, * October 31-November 3, October 24-27, * October 10-13, * October 3-6, * September 5-8, * August 29-31, August 22-25, August 1-4, * July 25-28, * July 18-21, * July 11-14, July 3-7, * June 20-23, * May 9-12, May 2-5, April 25-28, April 18-21, April 11-14, April 4-7, * March 28-31, March 20-24, * March 14-17, * March 7-10, * February 29-March 3, * February 8-11, * February 1-4, * January 25-28, * January 18-21, January 11-14, * January 4-7, * December 14-17, * December 7-10, * November 23-26, November 16-19, November 9-12, November 2-5,

10 10 October 26-29, October 19-22, * October 12-15, October 5-8, * September 28 October 1, * September 21-24, * September 14-17, September 7-10, * August 30 September 2, August 24-27, * August 17-20, * August 10-13, * August 3-6, * July 27-30, July 20-23, July 13-16, July 6-9, * June 29-July 2, June 22-25, June 15-18, * June 8-11, June 1-4, May 24-27, May 18-21, May 11-14, May 4-7, * April 27-30, April 20-23, * April 12-16, * April 5-9, March 30-April 2, * March 23-March 26, 2007: News about the current situation in Iraq March 16-19, * March 9-12, * March 2-5, February 23-26, * February 16-19, February 9-12, * February 2-5, * January 26-29, * January 19-22, January 12-15, January, January 5-8, December, * November 30-December 3, * Mid-November, * September, August, June, May, April, March, February, January, December, Early November, * Early October, *

11 11 Early September, July, Mid-May, * Mid-March, February, * January, * December, Mid-October, Early September, August, July, * June, April, * Mid-March, Early February, Mid-January, * December, November, September, Mid-August, Early July, June, * May, * April 11-16, 2003: News about the war in Iraq April 2-7, March 20-24, March 13-16, 2003: Debate over the possibility that the U.S. will take military action in Iraq February, January, December, Late October, Early October, Early September, 2002: Debate over the possibility that the U.S. will invade Iraq e. News about candidates for the 2012 presidential elections October 20-23, October 13-16, October 6-9, September 29-October 2, * September 22-25, September 15-18, September 8-11, * September 1-4, August 25-28, August 18-21, August 11-14, August 4-7, July 28-31, July 21-24, * July 14-17, July 7-10, June 30-July 3, June 23-26, * June 16-19, *

12 12 June 9-12, June 2-5, * May 26-29, * May 19-22, May 12-15, May 5-8, April 21-25, April 14-17, March 24-27, March 10-13, February 10-13, * February 3-6, * TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: 2008 Election October 31-November 3, 2008: News about the presidential election * October 24-27, 2008: News about candidates for the 2008 presidential election October 17-20, * October 10-13, * October 3-6, * September 26-29, * September 19-22, * September 12-15, September 5-8, * August 29-31, * August 22-25, * August 15-18, August 8-11, * August 1-4, * July 25-28, * July 18-21, * July 11-14, July 3-7, * June 27-30, * June 20-23, * June 13-16, * June 6-9, * May 30-June 2, * May 22-25, * May 16-19, May 9-12, * May 2-5, April 25-28, * April 18-21, April 11-14, * April 4-7, * March 28-31, * March 20-24, * March 14-17, * March 7-10, February 29-March 3, * February 22-25, * February 15-18, * February 8-11, February 1-4, * January 25-28, January 18-21, *

13 13 January 11-14, 2008: News about the New Hampshire primaries and the presidential campaign January 4-7, 2008: News about candidates for the 2008 presidential election December 14-17, * December 7-10, * November 30 December 3, * November 23-26, November 16-19, November 9-12, * November 2-5, October 26-29, * October 19-22, * October 12-15, * October 5-8, * September 28 October 1, * September 21-24, * September 14-17, * September 7-10, * August 30-September 2, * August 24-27, * August 17-20, * August 10-13, * August 3-6, * July 27-30, July 20-23, July 13-16, * July 6-9, June 29-July 2, * June 22-25, * June 15-18, * June 8-11, June 1-4, May 24-27, * May 18-21, * May 11-14, May 4-7, April 27-30, April 20-23, * April 12-16, * April 5-9, * March 30-April 2, March 23-26, * March 16-19, March 9-12, * March 2-5, February 23-26, * February 16-19, February 9-12, February 2-5, * January 26-29, * January 19-22, 2007: Recent announcements by prominent Democrats about plans to run for president in Election November, 2004: News about the presidential election

14 14 Mid-October, 2004: News about candidates for the 2004 presidential election September, August, * July, June, April, Mid-March, * Late February, 2004 (GAP) Early February, 2004: The race for the Democratic presidential nomination Mid-January, Early January, December, November, October, September, Mid-August, May, January, 2003: Recent announcements by prominent Democrats about plans to run for president in Election Early November, 2000: News about the presidential election Mid-October, 2000: News about the presidential election campaign Early October, September, July, 2000: News about candidates for the 2000 presidential election June, May, * April, March, February, * January, December, October, September, July, June, Election November, 1996: News about the presidential election * October, 1996: News about the presidential election campaign * Early September, * July, April, * March, 1996: News about the Republican presidential candidates * January, October, * August, * June, Election October, 1992: News about the presidential election (RVs)

15 15 September, 1992: News about the presidential election campaign * August, 1992: News about the presidential election (RVs) July, 1992: News about the presidential campaign * May, 1992: The presidential election campaign * March, 1992: The race for the Democratic presidential nomination * March, 1992: The race for the Republican presidential nomination February 1992: The Democratic primary in New Hampshire * February, 1992: The Republican primary in New Hampshire January, 1992: News about the Democratic candidates for the presidential nomination December, * October, October, 1988: News about the presidential campaign in 1988 (RVs) * 1988 Election August, 1988 (RVs) * May, 1988 (RVs) November, 1987: News about the Democratic candidates for the presidential nomination November, 1987: News about the Republican candidates for the presidential nomination September, 1987: Coverage of the Democratic and Republican candidates for the presidential nomination f. Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy October 20-23, October 13-16, * October 6-9, September 29-October 2, * September 22-25, * September 8-11, September 1-4, * August 25-28, August 18-21, August 4-7, July 28-31, * July 21-24, July 14-17, July 7-10, June 30-July 3, June 23-26, * June 16-19, * June 9-12, June 2-5, * May 19-22, * May 12-15, May 5-8,

16 16 April 21-25, * April 14-17, April 7-10, * March 31-April 3, March 24-27, * March 17-20, * March 10-13, * March 3-6, February 24-27, * February 17-20, * February 10-13, * February 3-6, * January 20-23, January 13-16, January 6-9, December 16-19, December 9-12, December 2-5, * November 18-21, * November 11-14, November 4-7, * October 28-November 1, October 21-24, October 14-17, * October 7-10, September 30-October 3, September 23-26, September 16-19, September 2-6, * August 19-22, August 5-8, July 29-August 1, * July 22-25, July 15-18, July 8-11, * July 1-5, * June 24-27, June 17-20, * June 10-13, * June 3-6, May 27-30, * May 20-23, * May 13-16, May 7-10, * April 30-May 3, April 23-26, * April 16-19, April 9-12, * April 1-5, * March 19-22, * March 12-15, * March 5-8, * February 26-March 1, * February 19-22, * February 12-15, * February 5-8, * January 29-February 1, * January 22-25, * January 15-18, *

17 17 January 8-11, * December 18-21, December 11-14, * December 4-7, November 13-16, * October 30-November 2, * October 23-26, October 9-12, * October 2-5, September 25-28, * September 18-21, * September 11-14, * September 3-6, * August 28-31, August 21-24, August 14-17, * August 7-10, * July 31-August 3, * July 24-27, * July 17-20, July 10-13, * July 2-5, * June 19-22, * June 12-15, * June 5-8, * May 29-June 1, * May 21-24, * May 15-18, * May 8-11, * May 1-4, April 17-20, April 9-13, March 27-30, * March 20-23, * March 13-16, * February 27-March 2, * February 13-16, * January 30-February 2, * January 23-26, January 16-19, * January 2-4, * December 12-15, * December 5-8, * November 21-24, * November 14-17, * November 7-10, * October 31-November 3, * October 24-27, October 17-20, * October 10-13, * October 3-6, * September 26-29, * September 19-22, * September 5-8, * August 29-31, August 15-18, * August 8-11, * August 1-4, July 25-28, *

18 18 July 18-21, * July 11-14, June 27-30, June 13-16, * May 9-12, * May 2-5, April 18-21, April 4-7, * March 28-31, * March 20-24, * February 29-March 3, February 15-18, February 1-4, January 18-21, * January 11-14, November 2-5, October 19-22, * August 10-13, * Mid-November, December, Early November, * Mid-May, January, * Mid-October, Early September, Mid-January, * December, November, October, September, March, February, * December, February, January, December, Mid-November, June, May, April, February, January, June, * March, * February, December, * October, June, * May, January, Early January, * December, October, * September, Early September, * August, * May, February, * January, *

19 19 Closely September, May, March, * February, * January, * October, ASK ALL: PEW.2 Which ONE of the stories I just mentioned have you followed most, or is there another story you ve been following MORE? [DO NOT READ LIST. ACCEPT ONLY ONE RESPONSE.] Oct Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy 13 Dozens of exotic animals let loose from a wild animal farm in Ohio 13 The death of former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi 13 News about candidates for the 2012 presidential elections President Obama announcing a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq by the end 12 of Anti-Wall Street protests in New York and other cities 7 Some other story 19 Don t know/refused ASK ALL: PEW.3 How would you describe the presidential election campaign so far is it [READ ITEM a. FIRST, THEN RANDOMIZE ITEMS b. THRU d.] a. Interesting Dull Neither October 20-23, October 10-13, September 12-15, April 18-21, February 15-18, October 12-15, April, Mid-October, 2004 (RV) Early September, 2004 (RV) June, June, July, b. Too negative negative Neither October 20-23, October 10-13, September 12-15, April 18-21, February 15-18, Mid-October, 2004 (RV) Early September, 2004 (RV) June, Mid-March, Ranking is based on interviews conducted October 21-23, after the item about troops leaving Iraq replaced the item about the World Series in PEW.1.

20 20 PEW.3 CONTINUED c. Informative Not informative Neither October 20-23, October 10-13, September 12-15, February 15-18, Mid-October, 2004 (RV) Early September, 2004 (RV) June, Mid-March, d. Too long Not too long Neither October 20-23, October 10-13, April 18-21, February 15-18, * 3 October 12-15, April, Mid-October, 2004 (RV) Early September, 2004 (RV) June, Mid-March, PEWWP.1 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED